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The most important thing in fantasy football is knowing you don’t know very much.
I don’t know much either. None of us do. It wouldn’t be a very fun game if it could consistently be beaten. The sharpest analysts in the world are going to get more wrong (or right for the wrong reasons) than they are right. RotoViz’s Blair Andrews helped illustrate this when he compared FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings to ADP and found a negligible difference between the two. You can sift through some of the noise by only looking at the most accurate rankers, but the point remains that even the best of the best are wrong a lot of the time.
That doesn’t mean there is no edge. Blair’s research only questioned the viability of beating ADP with superior player rankings. In his words:
You can capitalize on the fact that we aren’t very good at this. Blair argued that you can find market-wide inefficiencies in ADP. In other words, you can find the types of players we have valued incorrectly in the past:
One decade ago, quarterbacks dominated the early rounds. Now? Patrick Mahomes lasts until the fourth round most of the time. You could have printed money if you knew to wait on QBs 10 years ago. That’s one example of a larger bucket of players that ADP got wrong.
The market corrects itself over time. In 2013, JJ Zachariason wrote “The Late-Round Quarterback.” As a result, the QB landscape is completely different nowadays. That same year, Rich Hribar wrote the famous “Konami Code” article about how standard QB scoring favors dual-threat options. In 2021, the QBs with the earliest ADP – Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, the list goes on – all offer rushing upside in addition to their passing prowess.[[ad:athena]]
Those who have been playing best ball on Underdog have seen the seismic movement in WR ADP this offseason. As the idea of a “running back dead zone” became more popular, drafters increasingly focused on wideouts in the middle rounds. The change was so stark that it led to me investigating whether ADP had shifted enough to make mid-round RBs a viable option.
We play a price-sensitive game, and edges exist until they don’t. As the market corrects its inefficiencies, we have to look for new macro-level edges – new groups of players who are valued incorrectly. Such is the cycle of fantasy football, for which there is no end in sight.
You can spend the whole summer trying to decide between Player X and Player Y, but it’s more worthwhile to identify which types of players have been undervalued in the past. You also have to be cognizant of whether the market has corrected – what worked last year may not work this year if ADP has changed – but targeting remaining inefficiencies should be a top priority. To be clear, you still can gain an edge by picking the right players. Blair’s study looked at a consensus of expert rankings, but some analysts are more adept at player selection than others. It’s just that we probably overestimate how good we are at identifying a needle in a haystack, so to speak.
With that in mind, you also need a healthy dose of context when analyzing any cluster of different players. Historically, inefficient rookie wideouts do not fare well in Year 2. Last season, Jerry Jeudy averaged 7.6 yards per target. He only caught 46.0% of his looks and scored -20.7 Fantasy Points Over Expectation (via RotoViz).
Is Jeudy bad? Almost certainly not. Scott Barrett noted that he had the third-worst catchable ball rate among 71 qualifying WRs.
Jerry Jeudy (2020)
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) July 15, 2021
Catchable Target%: 65.5% (3rd-worst of 71)
Teddy Bridgewater (2020)
Catchable Pass%: 81.3%
This isn't a great 1v1 stat (because aDOT), but, basically Teddy is worth a boost of about:
+1.1 catchable targets per game (48th to 30th)
+2.3 FPG (59th to 41st)
Film analysts (not my area of expertise, so I generally trust the opinion of smarter people than me) say he’s already among the best route-runners in the game. Even Jeudy’s prospect profile needs additional context because he played alongside three other Round 1 WRs in college. Jeudy at almost any other school would have gotten more targets than he did at Alabama with Henry Ruggs, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith also on the team. This is why player-level analysis is critical. In such a short, variance-prone season, context is of utmost importance.
That’s pretty much how I approach fantasy drafts. This process leads me toward certain players, and that’s what we’ll look at today. Without further ado, let’s get into “my guys” for the 2021 season.
Tee Higgins
In the nine games for which both Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow were healthy in 2020, Higgins averaged 7.9 targets and 103.1 air yards per contest. He scored 14.5 PPR points per game during that span (WR23 pace). Right off the bat, that makes his ADP (also WR23) seem at least fair.
He was also Burrow’s most efficient target last season. The 10.58 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) Higgins averaged with Burrow was more than two AY/A better than the Bengals’ next-best option.
That was as a 21-year-old rookie. RotoViz has done myriad research showing that Year 2 is the most common breakout year for wideouts. In fact, Blair Andrews discovered that second-year wideouts are the only experience cohort whose production improves from the previous season.
Higgins was already on a low-end WR2 pace with Burrow, and his experience level indicates he should be even better in 2021. Plus, Higgins was efficient as a rookie, averaging 8.4 yards per target and posting 15.4 Fantasy Points Over Expectation. Between 2015-20, rookie wideouts who posted positive FPOE averaged a 9.0% win rate in Year 2, well above the average win rate of 8.3%. Blair’s work supports the notion that we should target efficient rookies, as he found they tend to score more fantasy points, get more volume, and continue to be efficient at a higher rate than their inefficient counterparts.
Higgins was good on fantasy-viable volume as a rookie, and that matters for his Year 2 outlook. But that’s not the only reason we should be targeting him. He also posted a 27% Dominator Rating in his age-19.9 season at Clemson, just shy of the (admittedly arbitrary) 30% threshold needed to qualify as a breakout. Higgins then officially broke out as a 20.9-year-old in 2019, posting 59 catches for 1,167 yards and 13 touchdowns. Here’s the thing: Only 11 of those catches, 169 of those yards, and two of those TDs came after halftime. In other words, 81.3% of his receptions, 85.5% of his yards, and 84.6% of his TDs were in the first half of games. Clemson was so good that year that their starters didn’t need to play in the second half of most games, so Higgins’ market share numbers were deflated by playing time. That’s important context for his analytics-based profile.
NFL talent evaluators – who rely more on film – regarded him highly as a prospect, and the Bengals felt strongly enough to take him with the 33rd overall pick despite having more pressing needs. It’s easy to focus only on NFL production once you’ve seen a guy in the league, but prospect profile still matters with a player this young. Higgins looked good coming out of school and played well last year. Because of that, we should believe in him as a talent.
The Bengals also led the league in neutral-script pass rate (64%) and passing plays per game (40) with Burrow healthy last year. Those numbers dipped slightly in Weeks 1-6 when Joe Mixon was also healthy, but they still ranked fourth and third, respectively, across the entire NFL. It’s safe to expect Cincinnati to be one of the fastest, pass-heaviest teams in football once again.
Higgins’ ADP (in Round 4 on sharper best ball sites but more commonly in Round 5) sits smack in the middle of the “RB dead zone” that we talked about in the introduction. This is not a causal relationship – a player’s ADP does not cause him to break out – but wide receivers in this range have been undervalued historically.
The second-year pro is also drawing rave reviews out of training camp. Bengals beat writer Paul Dehner pegged Higgins as his top sleeper for the 2021 season. It’s fair to question whether Higgins qualifies as a “sleeper” given his fourth-round ADP, but the idea that he’s in for a big season is more important than the semantics. Per Dehner:
Ja’Marr Chase‘s recent struggles only fuel a fire that has been raging all offseason. All three Bengals wideouts will be involved, but Higgins hits so many breakout indicators. He is my favorite value in drafts this year.
Cole Kmet
Like Higgins, Kmet is also going into his second professional campaign. The idea of targeting second-year players applies to tight ends too, as Blair found in The Wrong Read No. 56. Year 2 is the only year in which TE production increases on average.
That’s great news for Kmet, who needs an uptick in scoring to pay off his ADP. Fortunately, Year 2 is also the second-most common breakout (defined as a player’s first top-12 season) year for TEs.
Kmet’s role also increased drastically throughout his rookie year. In Weeks 1-9, the Notre Dame product never played more than 47% of snaps. He averaged 0.9 targets per game. From Week 10 onward, he never played fewer than 70% of snaps and averaged 5.1 targets per contest.
It was a tale of two seasons for Kmet, and all indications are that he’s going to carry his momentum into 2021. The former second-round pick only played once in preseason due to a hamstring injury (he’s back at practice now), but he was in on all seven of Andy Dalton‘s snaps during that game. The Athletic’s Kevin Fishbain named Kmet as his breakout Bears player:
Kmet is affordable heading into Year 2 despite operating as an every-snap player near the end of 2020. I’m not saying he’s going to finish as a top-five TE, but his ADP should be fringe TE1 rather than mid-to-low TE2.
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D.J. Moore
D.J. Moore opened his career with three seasons of above-average per-target efficiency. Simply put, he’s good. To make that feat even more impressive, he did that in a variety of roles. As a rookie, he played mostly underneath with his average target coming 9.0 yards down the field (per NFL Next Gen Stats). That year, he finished with 3.2 yards after catch per reception above expectation – the best mark in the entire league. Post-catch theatrics were his specialty coming out of Maryland, and he flashed that skill set immediately in the pros.
In Year 2, his TAY (the NFL’s version of aDOT – I’m using TAY here because it’s used for Next Gen Stats’ expected YAC) rose to 11.1. He exploded for 1,174 yards across 14 full games.
Going into last season, we thought Moore would continue to play underneath with Robby Anderson stretching the defense, but the new Panthers coaching staff opted to go in another direction. Moore’s TAY rose to 13.4, in a similar range to deep threats like Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, and Chase Claypool. Moore still played well, posting a career-high 2.2 yards per route run. He amassed 1,193 receiving yards on only 118 targets.
Three different roles. Three efficient seasons. Stealing Signals’ Ben Gretch coined the term “situation regression” to describe what happened to Stefon Diggs in 2020 and how it could relate to Moore in 2021: In his words:
Gretch went on to explain that the Vikings misused Diggs during his tenure in Minnesota. They used him in a variety of roles – his aDOT had an even wider range than Moore – yet he almost always excelled. He is an overfitted example of situation regression because he literally changed teams, but the idea is that situations are dynamic from one year to the next in a way in a way that’s difficult to project.
Moore’s talent wasn’t maximized in 2020, but that could change in a heartbeat. With size-speed freak Terrace Marshall running vertical routes, Moore may be used as a dynamic after-the-catch threat once again. That’s what made him so productive at Maryland, and that’s part of the reason he did so well during his first two professional seasons. In Carolina’s preseason finale, Moore got six targets in one half with an aDOT of 2.5. His targets won’t be that shallow in the regular season, but the Panthers may revert his role in 2021 back to what it used to be.
Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon also noted that Moore’s route running has improved greatly over the past three seasons. There’s so much signal that he’s a talented player, and a Diggs-like boom could come at any moment. Even if it never comes (which is possible and maybe probable), it’s hard to scoff at two consecutive seasons of 1,215 yards from scrimmage in the fourth round. If he ever gets lucky in the scoring department – 10 career touchdowns for someone with his volume is unheard of – he might not even need a stars-aligning breakout campaign to smash his ADP.
Elijah Moore
For two weeks in August, Elijah Moore was the best player in football. Jets beat writers were literally gushing about the second-rounder. The Athletic’s Connor Hughes lamented that he would show up training camp every day and try to write about someone else, but Moore’s performance day in and day out would make that impossible.
I think the craziest thing about Elijah Moore is every day I come here saying I’m going to focus on someone else. Then he makes that impossible #Jets
— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) August 4, 2021
Then he got a quad injury and missed the entire preseason. His Underdog ADP has fallen 6.7 spots over the past two weeks as a result. The good news: He’s back at practice and should be fully healthy for Week 1. Corey Davis dominated snaps in Moore’s absence, commanding 10 targets on 13 routes run across two preseason games. Davis should be the WR1 early on, but Moore’s prospect profile in combination with camp buzz implies the veteran may not hold on to that role for long.
Moore led the FBS in receptions and receiving yards per game in 2020. Think about that: A WR in the same conference won the Heisman Trophy and still had worse raw numbers than Moore. In fact, only one player in the past 15 years – Michael Crabtree in 2007 – posted more yards per game than Moore last season.
Moore had an 11% Dominator Rating as a freshman, but he was the WR4 on his own team behind A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, and DaMarkus Lodge. You’ve heard of the first two, and Lodge had a cup of coffee in the NFL as well. Moore then broke out as a 19.7-year-old sophomore (third-best breakout age in the class) with a 46% Dominator Rating. He amassed 850 yards that year, which doesn’t sound impressive until you consider that Ole Miss’ next-closest pass-catcher had 192. He had a similar monopoly over the Rebels’ aerial attack as a junior, recording 1,193 yards (next-closest player had 524). As soon as Moore wasn’t buried behind two future superstars, he produced at an elite level.
Moore filled the final piece of his prospect profile puzzle when the Jets selected him early in Round 2. He’s arguably the most productive wideout in the 2021 class, and camp buzz hints that he should play a major role from Day 1. His injury may end up being a blessing in disguise for fantasy drafters who can get him at a depressed ADP.
He makes even more sense in leagues with playoffs (i.e. most season-long leagues) or large-field best ball tournaments because rookies are a simple way to optimize your team for the most important weeks.
James White
In 2020, the Patriots ranked 31st in pass attempts (only ahead of Baltimore). In games that Cam Newton started, they averaged just 26.9 passes per game. It was even worse in the red zone, where they threw just 31% of the time. For reference, the next-lowest red-zone pass rate among all teams over the past five years was 40%. Basically, the Patriots ran at an unprecedented rate once they got into scoring range.
Their inclination toward the run hid the fact that James White ranked third among all running backs in target share (14.1%). He only averaged 4.4 targets per game, but the veteran satellite back remained as big a part of their offense as ever.
It’s not like New England will suddenly be a pass-happy team with Mac Jones under center, but the decision to start the rookie unlocks upside for all of their skill-position players. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson get a big boost too – especially with Sony Michel out of the picture – but White has the receiving role all to himself (no more Rex Burkhead) in a more pass-friendly offense.
In the final rounds, pass-catching backs have historically had more success than other RB archetypes. Keep in mind that the data from that article references PPR leagues, and White holds significantly more value in that format.
White is more valuable for RB-needy teams (or in best ball, which is mostly what I’ve played this summer and why I feel compelled to include him, as he’s my most-drafted player) because he should provide immediate usability, whereas someone like Tony Pollard has immense upside but probably won’t be fantasy-relevant every week. With that being said, White finished as the PPR RB21 on a per-game basis in 2019 and the RB10 in 2018. He’ll never be a top-five back, but it’s not fair to say he lacks a ceiling entirely when he has two top-24 seasons since 2018. Still, he makes less sense for teams with multiple early RBs because he’s less likely to crack your starting lineup compared to a Pollard-type who has a binary condition (Ezekiel Elliott gets hurt) that could thrust him into must-start territory.
