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Starting Lineups Based On Offensive Personnel

Mark Ingram

Mark Ingram

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

We have all 32 depth charts here, but this column adds another layer because it adjusts for personnel groupings. By doing so, we can figure out how often a player is actually on the field during pass plays. This is obviously very important for 2020 fantasy football rankings and projections. In the starting lineups below, you’ll see each team’s top-two personnel groupings for pass plays. For example: “In the second half of last season, the Cardinals were in 11 personnel on 45% of their pass plays.” The listed snap percentages are specifically from Week 10 through the Super Bowl of last season and only include plays when the point differential was within 17 points.

Arizona Cardinals Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

10

% of Passes

45%

23%

WR

DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins

WR

Christian Kirk

Andy Isabella

WR (Slot)

Larry Fitzgerald

Christian Kirk

WR (Slot)

-

Larry Fitzgerald

TE

Dan Arnold

-

Running Backs

Primary RB: Kenyan Drake

Goal-Line RB: Kenyan Drake

Passing-Down RB: Kenyan Drake

Insurance RB: Chase Edmonds

Notes: After the trade for DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals will likely use more four-WR sets on passing downs now that they have the receiver depth to make it work. That’s bad news for Larry Fitzgerald but good news for Andy Isabella, who seems to have the No. 4 job over cut candidate Hakeem Butler and others. I’ll be watching for Isabella’s role throughout the year. There’s a chance he sneaks into three-WR sets by the end of the year. [[ad:athena]]

Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

67%

12%

WR

Julio Jones

Julio Jones

WR

Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley

WR (Slot)

Russell Gage

-

TE

Hayden Hurst

Hayden Hurst

TE

-

Jaeden Graham

Running Backs

Primary RB: Todd Gurley

Goal-Line RB: Todd Gurley

Passing-Down RB: Todd Gurley

Insurance RB: Brian Hill

Baltimore Ravens Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

49%

23%

WR

Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown

WR

Miles Boykin

Miles Boykin

WR (Slot)

Willie Snead

-

TE

Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews

TE

-

Nick Boyle

Running Backs

Primary RB: Mark Ingram

Secondary RB: J.K. Dobbins

Goal-Line RB: Mark Ingram

Passing-Down RB: J.K. Dobbins

Notes: The Ravens likely pass more in 2020 than they did last year, and Mark Andrews already was projected for more snaps now that he’s healthier (only 61% routes run in 2019) and Hayden Hurst (39 targets and 219 routes run) was traded. A big year is coming from Andrews… Early in the year, I’m expecting Mark Ingram to handle more carries than J.K. Dobbins, but their roles could flip in the second half of the year if Dobbins is as good as I think he is. Until then, Ingram likely sees the standard between the tackles carries while Dobbins spells him for more explosive runs. I won’t be surprised if Dobbins leads the NFL in yards per carry this season.

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Buffalo Bills Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

83%

7%

WR

Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs

WR

John Brown

John Brown

WR (Slot)

Cole Beasley

-

TE

Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox

TE

-

Tyler Kroft

Running Backs

Primary RB: Devin Singletary

Secondary RB: Zack Moss

Goal-Line RB: Zack Moss (but maybe not)

Passing-Down RB: Zack Moss (but maybe not)

Notes: The Bills have the fewest available targets from last season (35) and added a true No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs. Targets will be tight in Buffalo… At running back, Zack Moss’ early-season role might be bigger than expected. He’s bigger than Devin Singletary and was better as a pass-catcher in college. I think Singletary is the primary back, but Moss will be involved and likely sees the more valuable touches.

Carolina Panthers Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

78%

15%

WR

D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore

WR

Robby Anderson

Robby Anderson

WR (Slot)

Curtis Samuel

-

TE

Ian Thomas

Ian Thomas

TE

-

Chris Manhertz

Running Backs

Primary RB: Christian McCaffrey

Goal-Line RB: Christian McCaffrey

Passing-Down RB: Christian McCaffrey

Insurance RB: Mike Davis

Notes: OC Joe Brady used 11 personnel on 77% of LSU’s offensive plays last season, which is basically identical to what the Panthers ran in 2019. I’m not expecting major changes offensively outside of how Robby Anderson fits in. I expect him to run a lot of clear-out routes downfield, with D.J. Moore as the alpha receiver over the middle and Curtis Samuel in the slot as an underneath weapon. Samuel should have a better season… Reports suggest Mike Davis is in the driver’s seat for the insurance job.

Chicago Bears Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

10

% of Passes

65%

13%

WR

Allen Robinson

Allen Robinson

WR

Ted Ginn

Ted Ginn

WR (Slot)

Anthony Miller

Anthony Miller

WR (Slot)

-

Javon Wims

TE

Jimmy Graham

-

Running Backs

Primary RB: David Montgomery

Secondary RB: Tarik Cohen

Goal-Line RB: David Montgomery

Passing-Down RB: Tarik Cohen

Notes: Keep drafting Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. Volume is coming… David Montgomery’s Week 1 status is in question with his groin injury. The Bears don’t have a true insurance back, so the offense could be in an odd situation with Tarik Cohen and Cordarrelle Patterson better in gadget roles.

Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

79%

14%

WR

A.J. Green

A.J. Green

WR

John Ross

-

WR (Slot)

Tyler Boyd

Tyler Boyd

TE

C.J. Uzomah

C.J. Uzomah

TE

-

Drew Sample

Running Backs

Primary RB: Joe Mixon

Goal-Line RB: Joe Mixon

Passing-Down RB: Joe Mixon

Insurance RB: Giovani Bernard + Trayveon Williams

Notes: The battle for the No. 3 receiver job is unsettled. John Ross may draw the veteran nod with Tee Higgins missing a portion of training camp, but Higgins will put pressure on him early in the season, if not in Week 1. They could just rotate drives or something similar to that in September. Auden Tate is the fourth or fifth option most likely… Deep sleeper Rodney Anderson was cut due to injuries (sad), but his release sets up deep sleeper Trayveon Williams for an insurance role alongside Giovani Bernard. I liked Williams as a prospect outside of his own injury concerns.

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Cleveland Browns Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

12

11

% of Passes

51%

29%

WR

Odell Beckham

Odell Beckham

WR

-

Rashard Higgins

WR (Slot)

Jarvis Landry

Jarvis Landry

TE

Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper

TE

David Njoku

-

Running Backs

Primary RB: Nick Chubb

Secondary RB: Kareem Hunt

Goal-Line RB: Nick Chubb

Passing-Down RB: Kareem Hunt

Note: Between Weeks 10-17 last year, 49% of the Browns’ neutral-situation passes were in 11 personnel, but the new coaching staff will likely be inserting more 12 personnel this season. I listed the Vikings’ 2019 snap percentages above as they should be closer to what we see in 2020.

Dallas Cowboys Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

79%

12%

WR

Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper

WR

Michael Gallup

Michael Gallup

WR (Slot)

CeeDee Lamb

-

TE

Blake Jarwin

Blake Jarwin

TE

-

Blake Bell

Running Backs

Primary RB: Ezekiel Elliott

Goal-Line RB: Ezekiel Elliott

Passing-Down RB: Ezekiel Elliott

Insurance RB: Tony Pollard

Notes: Michael Gallup will line up as the X receiver on most snaps with Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb splitting time between slot receiver and flanker. I think Lamb has the most slot snaps of the group, but they’ll move around a decent bit. In the end, it doesn’t matter too much. Just draft all three of these dudes.

Denver Broncos Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

21

% of Passes

54%

17%

WR

Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton

WR

Tim Patrick

-

WR (Slot)

Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy

TE

Noah Fant

Noah Fant

Running Backs

Primary RB: Melvin Gordon

Secondary RB: Phillip Lindsay

Goal-Line RB: Melvin Gordon

Passing-Down RB: Melvin Gordon

Notes: The Broncos won’t use as much 21 personnel after trading fullback Andy Janovich to Cleveland. That likely means more 11 personnel is coming on pass plays, especially with the investments they made at receiver this past draft. Speaking of them, Jerry Jeudy can play Z or slot receiver in this offense. Especially with slot receiver KJ Hamler (hamstring) likely out for Week 1 and beyond, I expect outside receiver Tim Patrick to play early, driving Jeudy into the slot. If Hamler earns a role later on, they will move Jeudy to Z. I don’t think it will make much of a difference for Jeudy’s outlook in general.

Detroit Lions Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

83%

12%

WR

Kenny Golladay

Kenny Golladay

WR

Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones

WR (Slot)

Danny Amendola

-

TE

T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson

TE

-

Jesse James

Running Backs

Primary RB: Kerryon Johnson

Secondary RB: D’Andre Swift

Goal-Line RB: Kerryon Johnson

Passing-Down RB: D’Andre Swift

Notes: D’Andre Swift’s leg injury during training camp likely costs him some snaps early in the season, but I’m not sure how long Kerryon Johnson can keep Swift sidelined, assuming Swift’s health improves. I’m not sure either will be RB2 plays in September.

Green Bay Packers Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

69%

18%

WR

Davante Adams

Davante Adams

WR

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

-

WR (Slot)

Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard

TE

Jace Sternberger

Jace Sternberger

TE

-

Robert Tonyan

Running Backs

Primary RB: Aaron Jones

Goal-Line RB: Aaron Jones (maybe AJ Dillon)

Passing-Down RB: Aaron Jones

Insurance RB: AJ Dillon

Notes: Allen Lazard “solidified” the No. 2 role. I’m projecting Marquez Valdes-Scantling to get the first crack at the third spot, but Equanimeous St. Brown is a deep sleeper as someone who could be given more chances in his third season… Robert Tonyan has been splitting first-team reps with Jace Sternberger, who is definitely not locked into the starting spot. For fantasy purposes, we should be rooting for Sternberger, an ultra-productive college producer… Aaron Jones’ goal-line role is a question mark with 247-pound rookie AJ Dillon being a threat for short-yardage work. Reserving this goal-line gig could be the difference between RB1 and high-end RB2 production for Jones.

Houston Texans Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

68%

28%

WR

Will Fuller

Will Fuller

WR

Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks

WR (Slot)

Randall Cobb

-

TE

Darren Fells

Darren Fells

TE

-

Jordan Akins

Running Backs

Primary RB: David Johnson

Secondary RB: Duke Johnson

Goal-Line RB: David Johnson

Passing-Down RB: Duke Johnson

Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

62%

24%

WR

T.Y. Hilton

T.Y. Hilton

WR

Michael Pittman

-

WR (Slot)

Parris Campbell

Parris Campbell

TE

Jack Doyle

Jack Doyle

TE

-

Mo Alie-Cox

Running Backs

Primary RB: Jonathan Taylor

Secondary RB: Marlon Mack

Goal-Line RB: Jonathan Taylor

Passing-Down RB: Nyheim Hines

Notes: There’s a good chance that Zach Pascal rotates in with Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman early in the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

10

% of Passes

70%

19%

WR

D.J. Chark

D.J. Chark

WR

Chris Conley

Chris Conley

WR (Slot)

Laviska Shenault

Laviska Shenault

WR (Slot

-

Dede Westbrook

TE

Tyler Eifert

-

Running Backs

Primary RB: Devine Ozigbo

Secondary RB: maybe Chris Thompson or Ryquell Armstead

Goal-Line RB: maybe Ryquell Armstead

Passing-Down RB: Chris Thompson

Notes: If forced to choose, give me Devine Ozigbo over Ryquell Armstead for the lead back role to start the season. I don’t think either are very good and they won’t be in positive game script in most games, but Ozigbo at least was healthy in camp. I thought he was more explosive on tape as well. Ultimately, I think Chris Thompson outscores both in PPR leagues. Jacksonville could easily add competition following 53-man roster trim downs.

Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart

Primary Passing

Secondary Passing

Personnel

11

12

% of Passes

72%

24%

WR

Sammy Watkins

Sammy Watkins

WR

Mecole Hardman

-

WR (Slot)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

TE

Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce

TE

-

Ricky Seals-Jones

Running Backs

Primary RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Goal-Line RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Passing-Down RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Insurance RB: Darrel Williams

Notes: The people want Mecole Hardman to be a thing, but it won’t be easy for that to happen. During the 2019 playoff run, Sammy Watkins ran more routes than Hardman (123 to 17) and also out-targeted him (18 to 6). During training camp, “Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins were clearly the two starters. Mecole Hardman was in there as the third receiver.” I think Hardman will be schemed touches and is an intriguing talent with the ball in his hands, but Watkins fits the No. 2 role better as a more all-around player. They both have upside if things click… Darrel Williams was the clear No. 2 back ahead of DeAndre Washington and Darwin Thompson during the second week of training camp.