Welcome to Week 2 of the FanDuel Bargain Bin. To start, I thought I’d try to explain what makes a good bargain play to me. I typically aim this column at cash games, because really any play can be justified in a GPP. In cash games, value plays are an integral part of your lineup and should be just as justifiable as your studs. You can’t afford to take shots in the dark. To me, the fifth most expensive player doesn’t qualify as a bargain, so in this week’s column, I’ve listed my salary thresholds at each position.
So what makes a cheap player valuable for DFS? The same as every other player: talent and opportunity, just a bit less of one or the other. Now that we’re into the season, we’ve already seen some price adjustments based on Week 1 output. Those can sometimes represent a good source of value, but FanDuel has played it pretty smart this week, raising salaries much more than lowering them on the basis of a single regular season performance.
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We’ll find a lot of bargains this week thanks to injury-induced opportunity and match up. As always, I’ll tell you whether I plan on going saving or spending at each position.
Quarterback
Matt Cassel ($6.4K) Minnesota destroyed the Rams in Week 1 (see next pick), with Cassel going 17/25 for 170 yards and 2TD. The fact that he took only one sack against a very solid Rams front four gives me confidence in his line’s ability to keep him upright and give him time to find his open man. He’s facing NE this week at home with healthy Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph at his disposal. The Patriots defense grades out fairly mediocre in terms of pass rush and pass coverage (according to Pro Football Focus), and was 30th in pass rush in 2013. I think Cassel effectively manages this game, which Vegas predicts as the 4th highest over/under.
Josh McCown ($6.3K) Against the league’s 6th best defense of 2013, McCown managed just 183 yards and 2TD through the air. He also threw two killer picks, but added 27 yards on the ground. Carolina brought pressure that the Bucs couldn’t handle and they looked lost and off balance the entire game. Weapons like Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans went largely unused. I expect much of that to change against the St. Louis Rams in Week 2. If the Bucs can handle the pressure from the STL defensive line, I like McCown and his receivers to rebound. With Doug Martin questionable, the passing game has to step up.
- Honorable Mentions:
Chad Henne ($6K), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6K)
My top three QB plays this week are Manning, Brees, and Dalton. Dalton’s price tag is too good to ignore on FanDuel ($7.8K, 14th most expensive) given his A+ matchup with Atlanta. It’s not necessary or advisable to go with a bargain QB in cash games this week.
Running Back
Terrance West ($5.3K) West needs very little explanation. He’s going to be one of the highest owned players in Week 2 DFS. He has been named the started for the Browns and faces the NO Saints defense, which is average at best against the run. I won’t judge them based on facing the Falcons RBs in Week 1, but they were 21st in rushing defense in 2013 (per PFF). West gained 100 yards in last week’s loss and we should see more of the same this week. He may surrender goal line carries to Isaiah Crowell, but the volume should more than pay off this tag.
Darren McFadden ($5.6K) I hope this pick makes up for the obviousness of my West pick. It seems Oakland’s plan at running back was to operate a committee of aging Maurice Jones-Drew and “but he has so much potential” McFadden until Latavius Murray is deemed ready for a full workload. Jones-Drew looked like it was about Week 36 in the opener, and then had a minor hand procedure on Monday. His Week 2 status is doubtful, opening up more touches for McFadden. If there’s a way to beat the Houston defense, it may be on the ground as Alfred Morris ran for 91 yards on limited attempts (6.5 YPC) against them in Week 1. McFadden had only four rushes and one reception for 21 total yards in Week 1, but if MJD sits, he could easily be worth a spot on your tournament roster.
- Honorable mentions:
Chris Ivory ($5.7K), Justin Forsett ($5.2K), Bobby Rainey ($5K), Shonn Greene ($5K)
A lot of people will target these cheap backs in order to pay up for an elite TE, forgetting that cheap RB carry significant risk and very low floors. I’m using West and perhaps McFadden, but I prefer the passing games of TB and Tennessee and don’t believe that Bernard Pierce is done for in Baltimore. That game also has amongst the lowest o/u of the week. These are GPP only plays for me.
Wide Receiver
Kendall Wright ($6.1K) Wright is and has been for some time, a PPR monster. Even with 0.5 PPR, he’s slightly more valuable. Going against the Dallas secondary (or perhaps tertiary?) that is stopping nothing, Jake Locker and everyone in the Titans passing game should be popular plays this weekend. Remember that not every pick has to be contrarian, it’s great to go with near certain value with your bargain WR. Eight catches for 90 yards and Wright pays off his low price tag without scoring. A TD is gravy.
Marques Colston ($5.6K) I love the Saints at Cleveland this weekend. The game is expected to be fairly high scoring (47.5 o/u) with NO favored by 7 as of now. While some fear that Brees and the Saints struggle on the road, I think they’re healthy and in sync to start the season and see no reason for that to disappear in Cleveland. The Browns graded negatively in Week 1 in pass defense categories (per PFF), and finished in the bottom half of teams in these categories in 2013. Ben Roethlisberger just threw for 365 yards against them. Drew Brees>>>Big Ben. Colston tied Cooks for targets in Week 1, going 5/110 but Cooks got the score. So while Cooks will be the flashy fun play for Week 2, his salary went up and I’m going to save $700 and bet on Colston getting the TD this week.
- Honorable mentions:
Jeremy Maclin ($6.3K), Brandin Cooks ($6.3), Justin Hunter ($5.7K)
I usually mix my receivers 2 top tier/1 bargain or 1 top tier/2 bargain depending on what I do at RB and TE. This is a two bargain WR week for me, so all of these guys will see time in my cash game lineups while I spend on AJ Green, Jimmy Graham, and/or Demaryius Thomas.
Tight End
Delanie Walker ($5K) He’s another piece of the Titans bet to beat up on Dallas. With seven targets (two in the RZ), he’s clearly on Locker’s radar. Like all cheap TE, whether he catches a TD will determine whether the gamble pays off in Week 2. When gambling, I’ll gamble against the Cowboys.
Levine Toilolo ($4.5K) Not a household name going into Week 1, and not totally making anyone forget about Tony Gonzalez just yet, but Toilolo contributed in the Atlanta offense catching 3/6 passes, one for a TD. Six targets is impressive, and at 6'8", I doubt Toilolo has seen his last RZ target. I don’t think the Bengals defense is going to be up to the task of shutting down Matt Ryan and Co, and Toilolo is a cheap way to get a piece of this potential shoot out action.
- Honorable mention:
Travis Kelce ($4.6K)
With virtually no price difference between J Thomas, J Graham, and Gronkowski, Graham is my easy pick at TE this week. I already mentioned my Saints love, and plan to pair Brees, Colston, and Graham in several cash game lineups. Cheap TE are for tournament plays only.
Defense
Miami Dolphins ($5K) Coming off one of the more dominant defensive performances in Week 1, they face EJ Manuel and the Bills in Week 2. While the Bills managed an overtime win against the Bears last week, they weren’t a daunting offense by any stretch of the imagination. This game does pit the strength of Buffalo-the RBBC of Spiller and FJax-against the weakness of the Dolphins D-stopping the run, but I think the strong pass rush and secondary of Miami gets to Manuel enough to create some pressure-induced turnovers. It’s one of the lowest predicted scoring games by Vegas with an o/u of just 43 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4.9K) I’m giving the Bucs another shot playing at home against the Rams. I expect very little offensive production from Austin Davis in this one. While Derek Anderson made the TB D look foolish all day in Week 1, they actually were decent against the pass in 2013. Expect a big dose of Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham early, but as I think the Bucs will get up early in this one, the Rams will be forced to throw the ball. With this pick, I’m banking on errors leading to turnovers and very few points from the Rams.
I’ve got these two DSTs in all my lineups at the moment. Without my intending to be especially contrarian here, they seem likely to be fairly low owned as people flock to the Washington, Houston, Arizona, and Tennessee squads. I’m fine with all of these except Washington, since I want my picks to be justifiable on both the talent and matchup side of things.
That’ll do it for this week’s Bargain Bin. Good luck in your DFS games on FanDuel this weekend!
