After an unpredictable first two weeks, the NFL season seemed to calm down Week 3. The good teams played well, the bad teams played poorly and the players we expected to do well pretty much did. It was a nice change.
Unfortunately, there were a few big injuries this week. Dennis Pitta (hip) and Danny Woodhead (ankle) have both already been placed on season-ending injured reserve, and Kyle Rudolph is out for about six weeks after undergoing sports-hernia surgery.
Those three injuries are tough, but luckily this week was nowhere near the bloodbath we saw in Week 2. That leaves us plenty of time to talk about players that gained or lost fantasy football value on the field Week 3.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $350,000 Fantasy Football Contest for Week 4’s games. It’s only $10 to join and first prize is $30,000. Starts Sunday, September 28th at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.
Stock Up
Already expected to take on a large role with Ryan Mathews (knee) sidelined, Donald Brown’s fantasy value took another step forward when the Chargers lost Danny Woodhead for the season to an ankle injury on his first carry of Week 3.
Brown dominated the touches after Woodhead left, carrying the ball 31 times and seeing another six targets out of the backfield. Brown was not very effective with those touches, but still managed to notch 89 total yards on volume alone.
With Mathews still out several weeks, Brown will be the unquestioned starter against the Jaguars, Jets and Raiders. The Jets matchup is tough, but Brown should be able to run roughshod over the Jags’ and Raiders’ bottom-third rush defenses. Brown’s value will not last long, but he will be a valuable cog to help fantasy teams through the bye weeks.
Don’t forget, for everything NFL, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, and follow @Rotoworld_FB and @RMSummerlin on Twitter. Also, purchase our info-packed Season Pass here.
The one bright spot in an otherwise dreadful Titans’ performance was the play of rookie RB Bishop Sankey. Sankey rushed for 61 yards on 10 carries against the Bengals, but more importantly out-snapped starting RB Shonn Greene 30-14. It was not all garbage time work, either, as Sankey had a series to himself in the second quarter.
It is fairly clear Sankey gives the Titans’ offense the most pop, but Greene is the safe, reliable option so many NFL coaches covet. That dichotomy means we are likely headed for a time share, which will torpedo the fantasy value of both backs.
I have always expected Sankey to eventually take over the job in Tennessee, but I also believe Greene will still have a role as a short-yardage back even if Sankey is the “starter.” That limits Sankey’s value in redraft formats, and will make him tough to use even when he becomes the guy.
Pierre Garcon got his season back on track by catching 11 of a team-high 16 targets for 138 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles. Garcon had seen 16 targets total through the first two weeks of the season, including only four targets against the Jaguars Week 2.
It is possible the high scoring game played a factor in the hike in usage, but the bigger factor was that Kirk Cousins is a much better fit for Jay Gruden’s offense than Robert Griffin III. Cousins is comfortable standing in the pocket and making throws, and is pushing the ball downfield more than Griffin did early in the season. Cousins has thrown the ball 15 yards or more downfield on 27.2 percent of his throws this season, while Griffin threw downfield on only 12.5 percent of his passes while healthy.
Those downfield passes will open up the underneath and middle for Garcon, while a well executed offense should help increase scoring across the board for all of Washington’s skill players. Garcon slides back in as a WR2 in standard formats, and could see enough volume to flirt with WR1 value in PPR formats.
Cousins is also a great pickup in the 52% of Yahoo! leagues he is still available. I expect him to be an excellent streaming option the rest of the season.
Washington’s Run Defense
One of the biggest surprises of the first two weeks was the play of Washington’s run defense. The unit held Arian Foster to a 3.81 YPC in the opening game, and then completely shut down Toby Gerhart Week 2.
They were both impressive performances, but we could not be sure Washington was actually a dominant rushing defense until they faced an elite running team. After holding LeSean McCoy to 22 yards on 20 carries Week 3, I am now sure. Washington’s rush defense is legit.
The tests are not over for Washington’s defense. They get top-five fantasy backs Rashad Jennings and Marshawn Lynch in the next two weeks, and then have to face Andre Ellington the week after that. While all three backs have to be started in redraft leagues, all three will be players to avoid in daily formats.
Stash and See
These players may not be worthy of a start Week 2, but certainly are worthy of a roster spot.
The Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles eras have officially begun. Both have enough upside to be owned in most leagues. … Allen Robinson only played 44-of-60 snaps for the Jaguars Week 3, but led the team with seven catches. … With Mike Tolbert (leg) and Jonathan Stewart (knee) out for at least this week, Darrin Reaves could see a decent workload in Carolina. … Alfred Blue saw 14 touches with Arian Foster sidelined against the Giants. Foster should be back next week, but Blue is clearly the handcuff to own in Houston. … Larry Donnell still leads the Giants in targets and receptions. He will continue to be a big part of their offense. … Branden Oliver only played six snaps against the Bills, but could have a much bigger role with Danny Woodhead out for the season. … Stevie Johnson caught all nine of his targets for 103 yards against the Cardinals. The 49ers employed a lot of three- and four-wide sets with Vernon Davis out. … Joe McKnight had seven targets and two touchdowns against the Dolphins. Those targets belong to De’Anthony Thomas once he gets healthy. … Owen Daniels is nothing special, but is now the starting tight end in a Gary Kubiak offense.
Stock Down
Marques Colston has been the most disappointing performer of the last two weeks, bar none. An oh-by-the-way touchdown saved his fantasy day against the Vikings, but the real concern is Colston has three drops on only 13 targets this season, and has been for the most part uninvolved in the Saints’ offense over the past two weeks.
That lack of involvement is concerning, but not necessarily out of the ordinary. Colston has had stretches throughout his career where he seems to disappear from the Saints’ offense, including a three game stretch last season in which he had six total catches. It is the simply the nature of the Saints’ spread-the-wealth philosophy.
The important thing to remember is Colston has always come back strong from these blips. After the three-game stretch last season, Colston broke out for 7-107-1 against the Cowboys. That game is on the horizon for Colston this season, and it would not be surprising if he again victimized the Cowboys next week. Colston remains a WR2, and is a decent buy-low option.
An early touchdown gave Terrance West a nice fantasy day against Baltimore, but the actual performance was less than stellar. More concerning, West found himself in basically an even split in the Browns’ backfield with fellow rookie Isaiah Crowell. West only out-touched Crowell 14-11, and only out-snapped him 31-28. It was a legitimate time share that seemed to be going Crowell’s way as the game wore on.
With Ben Tate scheduled to return after the Browns’ Week 4 bye, West may quickly find himself without a role in Cleveland’s offense. Tate will get the vast majority of the early-down work, leaving West and Crowell to fight it out for the change-of-pace and perhaps passing-down roles. Crowell has been just as effective a pass blocker as West this season, and offers a much starker change of running style to Tate than West does.
More importantly, once Tate gets hurt again, Crowell has performed well enough to take the lead role in the Browns’ backfield. West has yet to show the explosive play ability necessary to be a reliable fantasy option in a part-time role, and would be nothing more than a touchdown-dependent flier if Crowell began to dominate the touches.
West is still one of my favorite running backs to come out of this year’s draft, and is a player with a future in the NFL. The problem is Crowell is just better, and has the better chance to be the long-term starter in Cleveland.
It is hard to lose value on a day you did not even play, but that is exactly what happened to Bernard Pierce. While Pierce was sidelined with a thigh injury, rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro racked up 91 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries (5.06 YPC) against the Browns. It was an impressive performance for Taliaferro, but one that needs to be taken with a small amount of salt.
Taliaferro was facing a Cleveland team that has been gashed by running backs all season. Taliaferro had big holes to run through most of the day, and his big play of 31 yards was a play any running back in the NFL should have made. If that 31-yard run is removed, Taliaferro’s 60 yards on 17 carries is far less impressive.
All of that said, I have never been a Bernard Pierce fan, and Taliaferro looked better against the Browns than Pierce has looked at any point over the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Pierce will remain the starter for now, but Taliaferro should start eating into his workload sooner rather than later.
After throwing for under 250 yards and only one touchdown for the third straight game, Tom Brady’s fantasy owners are understandably concerned. Unfortunately for them, they have very good reason to be.
Brady has not been an effective player under pressure for the last several years, and he has been facing more of it this season than ever before. According to ProFootballFocus, Brady has been under pressure on 35.2 percent of his drop backs this season. He was under pressure 32.6 percent of the time last season, and 25 percent of the time in 2012. On those under pressure drop backs, Brady has completed 41.7 percent of his throws, and is averaging only 3.9 yards per attempt.
More worryingly, Oakland was able to get quick pressure on Brady several times with three or four man rushes. That kind of pressure is the most difficult for any quarterback to deal with, and six of Brady’s seven sacks this season have come on such plays.
Brady has not looked great even when given time, but he could still be a reasonable, low-end QB1 if his offensive line play improved. The problem is I do not see that improvement on the horizon. I was out on Brady before the season started, and I am even more out now. Get him out of your starting lineups.
The Purge
These players are unlikely to make any noise this season. They are not must drops, but can be replaced without worry.
Robert Griffin III is not due back until at least Week 11, and may not get the job back when he returns. … Riley Cooper may have a big game or two, but he is a glorified blocker in the Eagles’ offense. … I want to believe in Aaron Dobson, but getting benched for Brandon LaFell is worrisome. … Lance Dunbar had only six snaps against the Rams. … Jonathan Grimes is now clearly behind Alfred Blue and perhaps even Ronnie Brown in Houston. … Jermaine Gresham could not produce with Tyler Eifert sidelined and A.J. Green at less than 100 percent. … Mike Williams is the No. 3 passing option on a team quarterbacked by E.J. Manuel. … Danny Amendola has played 32.6 percent of the Patriots snaps the last two weeks.
