Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes. Anybody can tell you to start Deshaun Watson, Dalvin Cook, and Mike Evans. That’s not what I’m doing here. I’m looking deeper at legitimate mostly-borderline candidates who owners may truly be contemplating using in lineups.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Jameis Winston vs. 49ers: Maybe the best quarterback in the league last preseason, Winston opened 2018 on the suspended list. Ryan Fitzpatrick dominated that first month of the season and kept the gig before getting yanked late in Week 4 at Chicago. Winston went on to start Weeks 6-8 before getting benched himself. Despite the turnovers, Winston was the overall QB11 in fantasy points per game during that span. He reclaimed the starting job Week 12 and was the overall QB7 the final six weeks of the season. Fitzpatrick was let go in the offseason, and new coach Bruce Arians has committed to Winston for 2019. The “goal” is for Winston to be more consistent and take what the defense gives him, but it’s hard to take the gunslinger out of him. Especially in an Arians offense that wants to push the ball downfield through the air and light teams up via the pass. This Niners-Bucs game is the one everyone is talking about from a fantasy lens due to its 49.5-point total -- the fourth-highest of Week 1 -- and pick’em spread. Neither team projects to be all that good defensively, especially in the secondary, and both offenses played at a top-10 pace a season ago. San Francisco was dead last in the NFL with two measly interceptions in 2018 and did absolutely nothing to upgrade its secondary aside from signing CB Jason Verrett, who hasn’t played a down since Week 1 of the 2017 and has only been available for five games since the end of 2015. LCB Richard Sherman turned 31 in the offseason, and RCB Ahkello Witherspoon was Pro Football Focus’ worst coverage corner out of 123 qualifiers last season. Nickel CB K’Waun Williams missed the entire preseason recovering from a knee scope and allowed nearly-three quarters of the passes thrown his direction to be completed in 2018. The Niners wanted to upgrade on FS Jimmie Ward by chasing Earl Thomas in free agency but eventually came back around and re-signed Ward. The Niners need No. 2 pick Nick Bosa and trade pickup Dee Ford to get after quarterbacks if this secondary is gonna cut it. Winston is a top-six fantasy passer Week 1.
Starts
Matthew Stafford at Cardinals: After finishing 2017 as the overall QB7, Stafford’s numbers fell off a cliff under first-year coach Matt Patricia last season. Stafford attempted just 10 fewer passes in total but saw his touchdown rate dip to a four-year low 3.8% and lost close to 750 yards off his 2017 total. The Lions played methodically on offense at the fourth-slowest pace under Patricia, and that doesn’t seem all that likely to change under new OC Darrell Bevell, who was the Seahawks’ play-caller during their Super Bowl window. Stafford tumbled all the way to QB19 a year ago. He’s going to need to work some Russell Wilson-type magic with his TD rate to return fantasy numbers. But the Lions simply couldn’t ask for a better Week 1 draw offensively. The Cardinals showed no semblance of a defense in the preseason. The Raiders did whatever they wanted on offense in the second exhibition, and Vikings Nos. 2 and 3 QBs Sean Mannion and Kyle Sloter did the same the following week. Arizona has been churning its defensive line all summer, looking for capable bodies, and now its secondary is in shambles. Patrick Peterson is suspended the first six games and No. 2 CB Robert Alford suffered a broken leg. The Cardinals are down to 31-year-old Tramaine Brock as their default No. 1 cover man. Behind him is second-round rookie Byron Murphy, who tested as a 33rd-percentile SPARQ athlete at the Combine. Then there is a trio of former UDFAs in Chris Jones, Kevin Peterson, and Charles Washington who combined to play a whopping zero defensive snaps in 2018. If not now for Stafford, then it’s gonna be never for him this season. All the Lions’ main offensive cogs are in play for this one, including Kerryon Johnson, Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Jones. If the Cardinals can’t move the ball against Detroit’s underrated defense, Stafford could have the ball in his hands quite a bit Sunday afternoon. More opportunities leads to more fantasy points.
Dak Prescott vs. Giants: Prescott was the overall QB13 in fantasy points per game a season ago, but following the acquisition of Amari Cooper in Week 9, Prescott was the overall QB6 and QB9 in points per game. He looked phenomenal this preseason, going 11-of-14 for 109 yards and a touchdown under first-year play-caller Kellen Moore. And that was without Cooper (foot) in the lineup all summer. Dallas is in one of the best Week 1 spots, at home against a Giants Defense that just doesn’t have a whole lot of talent. The G-Men jettisoned their best pass rusher in Olivier Vernon as part of the Odell Beckham trade to Cleveland, lost CB Sam Beal (hamstring) to injured reserve, and let All Pro S Landon Collins leave as a free agent. Top CB Janoris Jenkins turns 31 next month and hasn’t been an upper-echelon cover man since 2016. Opposite him is first-rounder Deandre Baker, who missed a chunk of camp with a knee ailment. Second-year UDFA Grant Haley will cover the slot. Last Week 2, Prescott attempted his fewest passes of the season (25) against the Giants but still posted 160 yards and a score with 45 yards rushing. DC James Bettcher runs a man-coverage scheme, which is vulnerable to quarterbacks who can run. The Giants coughed up the seventh-most rushing yards to QBs. And in Week 17, Prescott touched up this New York defense for 387 yards and four touchdowns on 44 attempts, his second most of the season, en route to a QB2 finish. Prescott now gets stud C Travis Frederick back after he missed all of 2018 with an autoimmune disease. With Moore calling the shots and putting his players in better position for success, Prescott should get off on the right foot in 2019. Dallas’ implied total of 26.25 points is sixth-highest of Week 1.
Nick Foles vs. Chiefs: Foles started the final three regular-season games for the Eagles last season and was the overall QB10 in that window. He obviously gets a downgrade in terms of surrounding talent going from Philadelphia to Jacksonville, but he and new Jaguars OC John DeFilippo won the Super Bowl together with Philly in 2017. Foles should be familiar with the offense, and DeFilippo knows Foles’ strengths after serving as his QBs coach two years back. Drawing the Chiefs at home in Week 1 is a plus spot for this offense to start hot. Kansas City was 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and 31st in opponent plays per game in 2018. No team faced more pass attempts. The Chiefs played at the sixth-quickest pace a year ago, and their overall efficiency leads to the opposing offense running a ton of plays. When the Jaguars and Chiefs met last Week 5, Jacksonville ran 83 offensive plays, their highest mark of the season. If nothing else, volume should be on Foles’ side in this one. He’ll also be protected by a now-healthy offensive line that gets LT Cam Robinson, LG Andrew Norwell, and C Brandon Linder all back from injuries that cost the trio a combined 25 games in 2018. Chiefs-Jaguars has a 51.5-point total, the second-highest of Week 1. Foles should be a lock for 30-plus attempts. That’s more than enough to put him on the two-QB league radar and potentially into the top 12 for the week. He won’t be ranked there, but Foles has a non-zero chance of finishing there.
Sits
Jared Goff at Panthers: The overall QB10 in fantasy points per game a year ago, Goff was dynamite in home games but struggled badly away from the L.A. Coliseum. Goff attempted five fewer passes per game on the road, saw his completion percentage drop from 68.3 at home to 60.8 away from it, and his yards per attempt was a full 1.5 yards worse. On top of that, Goff’s passer rating was 116.7 in home efforts and 82.7 on the road. He tossed 22 touchdowns in home game and just 10 on the road for an average of 1.25 per contest. Goff’s fantasy finishes in his eight road games, starting with Week 1, were QB15 > QB20 > QB26 > QB18 > QB2 > QB27 > QB39 > QB14. That QB2 game was the shootout at the fantasy-friendly Superdome with the Saints. And the QB39 day was the Rams’ dreadful performance against the Bears. Goff is no better than a two-QB league play this week against a much-improved Carolina front that added DT Gerald McCoy and first-round EDGE Brian Burns. Goff’s LT Andrew Whitworth openly contemplated retirement after the Super Bowl loss and turns 38 this year. New LG Joseph Noteboom and C Brian Allen combined to play 114 snaps as 2018 rookies with no starts. RG Austin Blythe was a 2018 liability in pass protection. I really don’t like this spot for the Rams in the trenches on either side of the ball, particularly on offense. Carolina was 24th in pass-defense DVOA and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks a year ago, but this team got better up front, which should help the secondary. I honestly don’t hate running out the Panthers’ defense as a Week 1 streaming option, especially in daily leagues.
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Kyler Murray vs. Lions: The No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft has been drafted to start for most fantasy teams. I saw him going in the QB7 range in most drafts I was in over the summer. The preseason offered a mixed bag of results for Murray. The Raiders blew his doors off in the second exhibition, but Murray ended up completing two-thirds of his passes against the Vikings the following week. All preseason, coach Kliff Kingsbury ran a milquetoast offense with no creativity or pace. That’s expected to change significantly when the games matter. My issue is whether the Arizona offensive line can give Murray time to make plays. This line projects to be one of the worst units in the league, and they open against a talented Lions front that includes newcomers DE Trey Flowers and DT Mike Daniels. The Lions were also No. 1 in opponent plays per game a year ago, so it’s fair to wonder just how many plays the Cardinals are going to be able to fire off against this defense, especially when Arizona’s defense has shown no hope in stopping opposing offenses. The Lions’ offense operated at the fourth-slowest pace a season ago, so they could conceivably flat-out dominate time of possession Sunday. Arizona’s implied team total of 22.5 points is middle of the road for Week 1. The under on that is very much in play. The good news is Murray’s rushing ability should help his floor. I’m treating him as a borderline QB1/2 rather than the mid-range QB1 and surefire starter he was drafted as this summer.
Sam Darnold vs. Bills: Darnold started his rookie season on fire with a lighting-up of the Lions in Week 1, then he injured his foot and missed four games, before then finally showing big-time growth Weeks 14-16 to close out the year. In that three-week span toward the end of 2018, Darnold was the overall QB6 and sliced up the Packers for 341 yards and three scores in the home finale. New coach Adam Gase is expected to install more no-huddle and pace to the offense, and Darnold had a glowing preseason, going 17-of-25 for 211 yards and a pair of scores with no picks. Unfortunately, Darnold is greeted with a brutal Week 1 draw. The Bills were No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and No. 2 in pass-defense DVOA a year ago. They faced the second-fewest pass attempts, behind only the Raiders. Darnold missed one of the two matchups with Buffalo last season. In Week 14, he was just 16-of-24 for 170 yards, one touchdown, and one interception at Buffalo. Darnold was the overall QB26 that week. Bills-Jets has a 41-point total, the second-lowest of Week 1.
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