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QUARTERBACK
(Notable QBs on bye: Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones)
Start of the Week: Taysom Hill at Jets – In his first start of the season under center last week, Hill completed just 46.34% of his passes with a brutal 44.2 QB rating and four interceptions against the Cowboys. However, Hill still finished as the week’s overall QB4 in fantasy with 264 passing yards and two touchdowns to go along with an 11-101 rushing line. To have such a bad game as a passer and still produce those kinds of fantasy numbers speaks to Hill’s sky-high upside. His matchup this week against the Jets is a ceiling spot. The Jets are 32nd in pass-defense DVOA, 30th against the run, 31st in opponent completion rate, 32nd in yards per attempt allowed, 28th in pass yards surrendered, 26th in opponent passing touchdowns, 32nd in interceptions, last in opponent QB rating, and 28th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Hill is going to make mistakes as a thrower, but his Charmin-soft matchup coupled with his dual-threat skills make him an elite fantasy quarterback. Multiple touchdowns as both a passer and runner are well within his realm of possibilities. Hill will be a popular Week 14 DFS target.
Starts
Dak Prescott at Washington – Prescott looked well on his way toward a big box score after hitting Michael Gallup for a one-yard first-quarter touchdown last week against the Saints, but he finished the night with just 238 yards and a 1:1 TD:INT mark with -3 yards on the ground. Prescott finished the week as the overall QB21 and is barely inside the top-12 as the overall QB12 in fantasy since returning to the lineup in Week 9. Washington is playing much better defense of late, but the Football Team is still 30th in pass-defense DVOA, 32nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 27th in opponent completion rate, 25th in yards per attempt allowed, 29th in total passing yards, 32nd in touchdowns surrendered, 27th in interceptions, and 31st in opponent QB rating. Washington is also now without both starting edge rushers with Chase Young done for the year with his torn ACL and Montez Sweat testing positive for COVID. If not for Taysom Hill above, Prescott would be my favorite start of the week. Dallas is implied to score 26.25 points as 4.5-point road favorites. Prescott has a full complement of weapons, as well, with Amari Cooper expected back in a full-time role after a bout with COVID.
Cam Newton vs. Falcons – Newton was absolutely, unequivocally dreadful the last time we saw him in Week 12 against the Dolphins. He went 5-of-21 passing (23.81%) for 92 scoreless yards and two interceptions. The only thing that even remotely saved Newton’s fantasy day was an early short rushing touchdown. Cam was the overall QB30 that week and was benched in the fourth quarter in favor of P.J. Walker. Coming off the bye, Newton will continue to start. Coach Matt Rhule fired OC Joe Brady last Sunday, promoting assistant Jeff Nixon to offensive play-caller. Rhule’s gripe with Brady is that he threw the ball too much. Rhule wants to run the ball and play defense. With Christian McCaffrey (ankle) out for the season, look for the Panthers to utilize Cam’s legs, especially at the goal line and inside the 10-yard line. The passing matchup this week is also on the soft side with Atlanta 29th in pass-defense DVOA, 29th in opponent completion rate, 30th in passing touchdowns allowed, 27th in interceptions, 29th in QB rating against, and 31st in fantasy points surrendered to quarterbacks. And only three defenses have allowed more rushing yards to the position. Trevor Lawrence (5-39), Dak Prescott (2-5-1), Sam Darnold (8-66), Tua Tagovailoa (4-29), Taylor Heinicke (5-43), Daniel Jones (8-39), and Jalen Hurts (7-62) have all met or exceeded expectations on the ground versus Atlanta. Darnold accruing eight rushing attempts from under center for the Panthers earlier this season against the Falcons is promising for Cam’s Week 14 outlook. The Falcons are 25th in opponent plays per game. Cam’s dual-threat upside keeps him an upside streamer.
Russell Wilson at Texans – Mr. Unlimited silenced chatter of him being washed with a bounce-back performance last week in the win over the 49ers. He went 30-of-37 passing, completing a season-high 81.08% of his attempts, for 231 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the week’s overall QB15. The interception he threw was a surefire third touchdown that Gerald Everett dropped and then volleyed to a waiting defender. Coaching is Wilson’s biggest obstacle and has been for years. Trade rumors are already swirling again, so look for Wilson to have incentive to play well over the final five weeks. There’s too much smoke for there not to be fire on his desires to leave Seattle. Wilson now gets a Texans defense that is 30th in points allowed per game, 29th in opponent plays per game, 27th in opponent yards per attempt, and 17th in fantasy points yielded to quarterbacks. Playing in a friendly dome environment, conditions will be perfect for Wilson with a healthy WR duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Favored by 8.5 points on the road, the Seahawks are implied to score 24.75 points.
Sits
Ryan Tannehill vs. Jaguars – Fantasy’s QB18 in points per game on the season, Tannehill has been a major disappointment after finishing as the QB11 last season. Tannehill’s touchdown rate has plummeted from 6.9% last year to 3.6%, well below his career average of 4.7%, and his passer rating has fallen nearly 20 points from last season. His adjusted yards per attempt sits at a pitiful 6.3 after being 8.7 in 2020. The Jaguars don’t represent a stiff challenge, checking in at 31st in pass-defense DVOA, 32nd in opponent completion rate, 29th in yards per attempt against, 30th in passer rating, and 29th in raw points allowed, but they’re a solid ninth in fantasy points surrendered to quarterbacks while Tannehill’s supporting cast has been decimated by injuries to Derrick Henry (foot) and A.J. Brown (chest), even if Julio Jones (hamstring) is on track to return from I.R. this Sunday. When these teams met in Week 5, Tannehill’s 22 attempts were his second-fewest of the season, and he finished as fantasy’s QB22 with 197 yards and one touchdown. As 8.5-point home favorites, there will be no need for Tannehill to throw it.
Joe Burrow vs. 49ers – After going eight straight games with multiple passing touchdowns to open the season, Burrow has 0-1 touchdown passes in four straight, and his turnover numbers are on the rise. With five interceptions over the last four games, he now leads the league with 14 picks and has also lost a pair of fumbles in that span. Burrow is fantasy’s overall QB27 since Week 9 and has two sub-200 yards passing games in that span. He also dislocated his pinky finger on his throwing hand last week against the Chargers but played through it and will continue to gut it out with the Bengals pushing for a playoff spot. Joe Mixon has become the focal point of coach Zac Taylor’s offense. At less than 100%, Burrow will face a 49ers unit that is 17th in pass-defense DVOA, third in passing yards allowed, sixth in passing touchdowns given up, and 11th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Only five defenses have faced fewer plays per game. With Burrow banged up and not playing great football of late, he’s devolved to a middling-to-low QB2 despite the Niners’ injuries on the back end at cornerback.
Derek Carr at Chiefs – Second in the NFL in passing yards and top-four in both attempts and completions, Carr is just 13th in touchdown passes and offers nothing on the ground with his legs. He’s the overall QB13 on the season in fantasy points per game. Nobody has completed more passes of 20-plus yards, but Carr’s 3.8% touchdown rate is well below his career norm and 21st in the league. Carr has yet to have a three-touchdown passing game this year. Carr was fantasy’s QB7 during Week 10 when these two teams last met, but that was in Vegas. This game will be played in Arrowhead with a 1 PM ET kickoff. The Chiefs’ defense is playing much better of late, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks and checking in at a middling 20th in pass-defense DVOA. Josh Jacobs has become the centerpiece of the Vegas offense. The Raiders’ implied team total of 19.25 points is one of the lowest of the week. Carr carries a safer floor but has no ceiling as more of a middling QB2.
RUNNING BACK
(Notable RBs on bye: Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Myles Gaskin)
Start of the Week: Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Raiders – In his two games back from I.R., Edwards-Helaire has narrowly been out-snapped by Darrel Williams 62-61, but CEH holds the distinct opportunities advantage with 31 combined carries and targets to Williams’ 16 over the last two weeks. Targets are 6-5 in favor of Williams, who remains the team’s preferred two-minute, pass-pro specialist. The Raiders are 12th in run-defense DVOA but 26th in rushing yards allowed and 27th in fantasy points surrendered to opposing running backs. Antonio Gibson just gashed Vegas for 113 yards and a touchdown last week after Joe Mixon went for 123 yards and a pair of scores two weeks earlier. CEH missed the Week 10 meeting between these AFC West rivals, but Williams handled 20 touches that day and went off for 144 yards and a touchdown. Edwards-Helaire may not have a big ceiling in terms of volume, but his 12-16 touches are enough to make him an easy RB2 play with upside. Kansas City’s implied team total of 28.75 points is the week’s highest while Vegas is 30th in opponent plays per game.
Starts
AJ Dillon vs. Bears – The Packers are coming off their bye week. Aaron Jones missed just one game with his sprained MCL and should be close to 100% after the week off. But it was Dillon who out-touched Jones 25-10 against the Rams the last time out. It sure looks like things might have flipped in Green Bay’s backfield, with Dillon being the 1A to Jones’ 1B, though we should still expect Jones to see money chances in the red zone and scoring area. Dillon, however, has closed the gap on Jones, making both weekly RB2 plays until further notice. The Bears are 18th in run-defense DVOA, 24th in total rushing attempts faced, 25th in rushing touchdowns allowed, and 17th in fantasy points given up to opposing running backs. Dillon averaged a robust 5.26 YPC on 11 attempts against the Bears way back in Week 6, and that’s when Jones was the clear No. 1 back. With the Packers installed as massive 12.5-point home favorites, there should be plenty of chances for both Jones and Dillon to put up box-score results Sunday night.
Chuba Hubbard vs. Falcons – Christian McCaffrey (ankle) is done for the season. Look for Hubbard to handle early-down work while Ameer Abdullah gets the pass-game snaps and bulk of the backfield targets. Cam Newton is probably the Panthers’ best bet for goal-line carries. Abdullah is the preferred add in PPR leagues, but Hubbard is the better bet among the duo for touchdowns. Coach Matt Rhule fired OC Joe Brady during the bye week over philosophical differences. Rhule wants to run the ball more over the final five weeks, so that should benefit someone like Hubbard. The rookie hasn’t been overly impressive in his extended looks with CMC out, averaging a pitiful 3.5 YPC, but he did average 20.4 touches per game in Weeks 4-8 with McCaffrey sidelined. We can probably set Hubbard’s rushing attempts floor around 14 this week. Against a Falcons defense that is 21st in DVOA against the run, 26th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, and 25th in opponent plays per game over the last three weeks, that’s enough volume to put Hubbard smack-dab in the RB2 mix. Rhule simply wants to run the ball.
Rashaad Penny at Texans – Penny has been an injury-riddled mess most of the last three seasons. Back in the lineup last week against the 49ers, he played a season-high 29 snaps (41%), but it’s certainly worth noting Alex Collins (abdomen) missed that game. Collins, however, has been terrible for the better part of the last two months with Chris Carson (neck) out. After Penny made some plays against the Niners, including a 27-yard catch and a blitz pickup as a blocker, coach Pete Carroll said Penny is going to get a longer look the rest of the season. His body just needs to cooperate. Collins is expected back this week, too, so we’re likely looking at both guys soaking up most of the backfield snaps for Seattle. Penny, however, should have the most juice in his legs. The Texans are a true run-funnel unit, checking in at 28th in run-defense DVOA compared to sixth against the pass, 32nd in rushing yards allowed, 27th in opponent yards per carry, 31st in touchdowns allowed on the ground, and 29th in fantasy points surrendered to opposing running backs. Houston is also 29th in opponent plays per game. This is a potential ceiling spot for all Seahawks skill players. The actual backfield playing time and rotation is unclear, but there’s enough here to trot Penny out as a desperate RB3.
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Sits
Mike Davis at Panthers – Davis scored his second rushing touchdown of the season last week and caught his most passes in a game (4) since Week 8, but he’s still handled single-digit touches in four straight games and five of the last seven. Davis is averaging an ugly 3.4 YPC on the season and has taken a back seat on offense with Cordarrelle Patterson surging forward as the Falcons’ centerpiece. Despite Davis’ end-zone trip last week, Patterson is handling over 40% of Atlanta’s red-zone rushing opportunities. And Carolina presents a difficult matchup on paper, surrendering the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Panthers have allowed the fewest catches and zero touchdowns to the position through the air. Davis is little more than an inefficient RB4 playing in a bad offense implied to score just 19.75 points.
Sony Michel at Cardinals – Filling in for an injured Darrell Henderson (quad) last week, Michel went nuclear with season-highs across the board en route to 24-121-1 on the ground to go with three catches on four targets, finishing as the week’s overall RB4 in fantasy. We should still expect this to be Henderson’s backfield, but coach Sean McVay hyped Michel after the big performance, and we’ve seen McVay go with backfield committees in the past. It’s hard to trust Henderson as anything more than an RB2 going forward, as he’s yet to run for 100 yards in a game this season and hasn’t rushed for a score since Week 8. Henderson started the practice week limited on Thursday, putting him on track to return Monday night. Michel has likely earned a bigger share of the touches, but he’s still not a recommended fantasy play until we see how things play out with both backs healthy at the same time. Arizona is a middling 15th in run-defense DVOA and 16th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, but the Cardinals have allowed the third-fewest rushing touchdowns. The Rams have thrown the ball at the second-highest rate over the last three weeks. Michel might not see more than 6-8 carries.
Tevin Coleman vs. Saints – In two games with rookie Michael Carter (ankle) on injured reserve, Coleman has handled 16 and 11 carries while catching 5-of-7 targets in the pass game. The volume is strong, and Coleman is averaging 4.63 YPC on those 27 totes, but he’s yet to find the end zone this season, and lost goal-line looks to Austin Walter of all people. Coleman is now dealing with a concussion. If he plays, the Jets will face a Saints defense that is No. 1 in DVOA against the run, first in fantasy points allowed to running backs, fifth in total rushing yards allowed, and No. 1 in opponent yards per carry. Playing in a bad offense and facing the league’s top run defense isn’t a recipe for box-score success for Coleman. He’d have to score.
WIDE RECEIVER
(Notable WRs on bye: Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers)
Start of the Week: DK Metcalf at Texans – We’re going right back to Metcalf after listing him in this exact same spot last week. He matched his third-most targets of the season in the win over the 49ers, but was taken down inside the five-yard line at the end of a 33-yard catch and was held out of the end zone on the day, finishing with 5-60 on eight targets. Both OC Shane Waldron and Russell Wilson know Metcalf needs to be seeing the ball more, and funneling him a team-high eight targets last week was a good start. He easily leads the Seahawks with 13 red-zone targets, seven more than the next-closest teammate, and can also score from anywhere on the field. The Texans are 19th in fantasy points allowed to receivers and 22nd in yards given up to the position. They don’t employ a single cornerback who can match Metcalf. Houston is 29th in opponent plays per game. This is a true breakout spot for the upside WR1.
Starts
Amari Cooper at Washington – Since going 8-122-1 with Cooper Rush under center way back in Week 8 against the Vikings, Cooper is fantasy’s overall WR67 in half-PPR points per game with a combined 8-129-0 line on 11 targets spanning three games. Cooper missed two weeks with a bout of COVID and then was limited to 34% of the snaps last week as he still fought symptoms. Cooper is expected back to his normal, 100% self this time out against Washington. The Football Team is 30th in pass-defense DVOA, 30th in fantasy points allowed to receivers, and has surrendered the fifth-most yards and most touchdowns to the position. Cooper scored five times across the Cowboys’ first eight games. They need to get him going again to close out the season and headed into the playoffs. Cooper has top-10 upside any time he steps on the field and should be fired up as an upside WR2. Dallas is implied to score 26.25 points.
Brandin Cooks vs. Seahawks – Cooks has topped 50 yards just three times since Week 3 after starting the season red-hot with 132-, 78-, and 112-yard outings. Cooks has two touchdowns over the last five games and is Davis Mills’ first read on virtually every pass play. Mills is back under center this week after starting Weeks 3-8. In those six games, Cooks saw target counts of 11, 7, 5, 13, 7, and 6 in those six games and went over 80 yards three times. Seattle is sixth in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers but 26th in pass-defense DVOA and 32nd in opponent plays per game. This secondary doesn’t have anyone that can keep up with Cooks. His slump will turn fantasy players off, but volume should keep him afloat as a WR3.
Russell Gage at Panthers – With target counts of 8, 7, and 12 over the last three weeks, Gage has turned in a 22-241-1 line as fantasy’s WR18 in half-PPR points per game in that span. With Kyle Pitts drawing all of the defense’s attention, it has left Gage to soak up targets and easy completions as the literal only other capable pass-catcher if we’re not counting Pitts or Cordarrelle Patterson. Pitts is expected to see a lot of CB Stephon Gilmore in this one. It is worth remembering that Gage didn’t see a single target the last time these two teams met back in Week 8 despite playing 68% of the snaps. But Gage’s heightened target floor of late should slide him into lineups as a WR3/FLEX option, even with Atlanta’s low total of 19.75 points.
Sits
Kenny Golladay at Chargers – With Mike Glennon under center last week against the Dolphins, Golladay went 3-37 on five targets and has still yet to find the end zone in his first season with the Giants. Golladay has battled numerous minor injuries and is the overall WR80 on the year. Daniel Jones (neck) remains sidelined, and now Glennon is trying to clear the league’s concussion protocol to start on Sunday. Otherwise, it will be Jake Fromm at quarterback for the G-Men. Golladay is a straight-up avoid, even with the Chargers possibly missing starting CB Chris Harris, who was added to the COVID list earlier this week. If Fromm starts for the Giants, there’s a realistic chance this offense is held scoreless.
Emmanuel Sanders at Bucs – Sanders is still holding steady as the Bills’ No. 2 receiver after playing 79% of the snaps last week against the Patriots, seeing six targets. But the 34-year-old hasn’t scored since the Week 7 bye and has been held to 28 yards or fewer in four straight games. At some point, Buffalo needs to seriously consider giving Gabriel Davis more of Sanders’ playing time. The matchup with the Bucs is really strong on paper, and we can do worse than Sanders in the Bills’ pass-happy offense, but he’s already flopped in several good “on-paper” spots over the last couple of months. Sanders should be viewed as a low-floor WR4/5.
Courtland Sutton vs. Lions – Jerry Jeudy returned to the lineup in Week 8. In five games since Jeudy’s return, Sutton has receiving lines of 2-40, 1-9, 2-29, 2-17, and 2-15 with no touchdowns. He’s been out-targeted 30-18 by Jeudy in that span. The matchup with the Lions isn’t scary in the least bit, but the Broncos’ fondness for running the ball down the opponent’s throat and being installed as 10-point home favorites coupled with Sutton’s back seat to Jeudy has this looking like another WR6 week for Sutton. At this point, we need to see it from Sutton again before we can even trust him in fantasy lineup decisions.
TIGHT END
(Notable TEs on bye: Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Jack Doyle)
Start of the Week: Dawson Knox at Bucs – Knox had a really rough game last Monday night against the Patriots, turning his six targets into a 2-14 line while dropping a couple of passes and committing a costly false start on the Bills’ final drive. Knox is still the TE5 on the season in half-PPR points per game and has shown he can pop up for monster, slate-shaping games. He now gets a date with a Bucs defense that is 23rd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and has surrendered the third-most catches to the position. This is one of the juiciest fantasy games on the slate with a massive 53.5-point total and narrow 3.5-point spread featuring two of the pass-happiest offenses in the sport. Despite missing several games with a broken hand, Knox is still second on the Bills with 12 red-zone targets. He has two-touchdown upside against Tampa.
Starts
Dalton Schultz at Washington – Schultz’s box-score results have been a bit underwhelming of late, having not topped 54 yards in a game since Week 6 and just one touchdown since Week 4, but he’s played 98%, 96%, and 96% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps over the last three weeks. Schultz has run the seventh-most routes among tight ends and is tied for fourth on the Cowboys in red-zone targets. Washington is a middling 18th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Playing essentially every snap and running a bunch of routes makes Schultz a no-brainer TE1 as the season’s overall TE8 and Dallas implied to score 26.25 points.
Austin Hooper vs. Ravens – The Browns will be without both David Njoku (COVID) and Harrison Bryant (ankle) this week, paving the way for Hooper to play virtually every snap after playing a season-high 90% of the snaps last time out against this same Ravens team in Week 12 before Cleveland’s bye last week. Hooper, of course, went without a catch in that one while Njoku and Bryant combined for 6-85-1 receiving. Baltimore is 29th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and only four teams have given up more yards to the position.
Ricky Seals-Jones vs. Cowboys – After injuring his knee last week, Logan Thomas is done for the season with a second I.R. stint. Seals-Jones has been out since Week 10 with a hip issue but is expected to play this week against Dallas. Across Weeks 5-8, RSJ played every snap on offense with Thomas out and scored one touchdown with a pair of 50-yard games. The sad state of the tight end position makes that more than enough for Seals-Jones to be a top-12 play. Dallas has allowed the ninth-most catches and 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
