There is nothing the football media loves more than declaring a Hall-of-Fame quarterback done before it’s true. I know because I have done so several times. It is tempting to try to sense the turning of the tide and slam the door shut before somebody else does. 2014 Tom Brady says hello.
It is against that backdrop that I hesitate to declare Ben Roethlisberger finished. But truly, what conclusion are we supposed to reach through the first quarter of the Steelers’ season? A man with one of the deepest, most balanced receiver corps in the league has four touchdowns in four games. He has averaged more than 6.0 yards per attempt once in four starts. That number is even more shocking going back to last season, where Big Ben has breached 6.0 twice in 10 contests. He is the first quarterback in the past 20 years to lose yards on multiple fourth-down completions in the same season. There is no distance that is short enough of the sticks.
And the thing is, the media isn’t the only group that’s noticed. There is also the Steelers, who you may remember required Roethlisberger to take a $5 million pay cut and sign a contract that voids after the 2021 season. They tasted the same blood in the water as everybody else and tried to get out in front of it. They just hoped they were wrong. So far, they have been painfully right. Pain is the only thing that comes to mind when watching this offense. Pain that Roethlisberger can’t make plays down the field to second-year wizard Chase Claypool. Pain that Najee Harris is being employed as a checkdown receptacle instead of tackle breaker. Pain that an entirely immobile 39-year-old signal caller is fighting for his football life behind an awful offensive line.
This is not a tenable situation, but the only solution is Mason Rudolph. The biggest believers in continuity in North American sports are not about to sign an outside quarterback like Cam Newton. They have to decide if they would rather bet on one of the best players in franchise history figuring something out or switching gears to the guy who lost work to “Duck” Hodges in 2019. Frankly, though it sounds tough when you write it out like that, it won’t be if Big Ben’s Week 5 is anything like his Weeks 1-4. It’s hard to see what will be different with a quarterback who no longer appears physically up to the challenge. Rudolph won’t be saving any seasons. But he might just stop them from going down the drain, both for the Steelers and fantasy managers.
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Five Week 4 Storylines
Jimmy Garoppolo gives way to Trey Lance, probably for good. Beyond his inconsistent, low-upside play, Garoppolo’s durability woes were another reason the 49ers were on the prowl for different quarterback solutions. Jimmy G was barely holding down the fort from a production standpoint, but the other shoe dropped in the form of a calf injury on Sunday. It’s a multi-week issue, one that will give Lance plenty of platform even as increasingly-besieged coach Kyle Shanahan coldly claimed Lance continues to look like a No. 2 quarterback. Lance’s best Week 4 play was a coverage bust, but what have been fen Garoppolo’s best plays this season? It’s time for Shanny to actually commit to something and rip the Band-Aid off. Even as the passing will be a work in progress, Lance’s dual-threat ability instantly has him on the streaming radar for this week’s shootout-in-a-can with the Cardinals.
Deebo Samuel continues march toward WR1 status. The 49ers’ quarterback change may not have been what everyone was wanting to hear. Samuel’s career has finally achieved terminal velocity in year three, and Lance threatens to reset the system. Will Samuel’s usage return to its 2020 line of scrimmage hovering? Although his average intended air yards of 7.7 are hardly earth shattering, they are worlds ahead of last year’s dead-last 2.1 mark. Samuel needs some down-field involvement to keep his WR1 case percolating. The Cardinals will be a stiff Week 5 test after they stymied Cooper Kupp’s march of destruction on Sunday. Samuel will probably require a WR2 hedge even though he is currently fantasy’s No. 3 overall wideout by half PPR points.
Robert Woods remains invisible even as Rams’ offense tanks. The Rams were down 21-10 20 minutes into Sunday’s game. Three quarters of comeback game script had to mean more Bobby Trees involvement, right? Dead wrong. Woods entered the fourth frame with one catch on two targets. He simply was not involved even as Cooper Kupp was enveloped, with deep threat Van Jefferson drawing more looks while the game was still in doubt. Woods’ touchdown was barely deserving of registering in the box score, as it came with the Rams down 37-13 with 1:14 remaining. For the season, Woods has run only 12 more routes than Jefferson, and Jefferson is averaging 2.73 yards per route run to Woods’ woeful 1.20. Sunday, of course, demonstrated why the Rams still need Woods, with Stafford lacking a Plan B with Kupp tangled up. Woods is still on the field as much as his more productive teammate, and both his air yards per target and yards per target are up on last year’s numbers. He has to start getting more looks. But what felt inevitable is no longer so after Sunday’s dismal usage. Woods is a low-end WR3 and falling fast until demonstrated otherwise.
Justin Fields shows improvement, but David Montgomery injures knee. Fields at least hit some big plays this game, and lowered his sacks taken from nine to one. Coach Matt Nagy still refused to orient the game plan around his rookie signal caller, opting for conservatism and the run game. The latter is in peril following Montgomery’s knee injury, with the third-year pro appearing highly unlikely to suit up for Week 5 vs. the Raiders. Damien Williams is a must add across the board with a Montgomery injured reserve stint potentially in the cards. As for Fields, Nagy was steadfast on Monday that Andy Dalton remains his starter. Fields will lack streaming juice in this final week without byes.
Logan Thomas suffers hamstring injury vs. Falcons. Thomas was immediately ruled out after limping to the sideline in the first quarter. That’s the sign of a multi-week injury, one that could not have come at a worse time for a seam stretcher who has yet to translate playing time into production this season. Now the playing time could be curtailed when he returns, as Thomas’ conditioning will become a factor. With two scores across his first three games, it would be difficult to call Thomas a drop, but you would be forgiven if the thought at least crosses your mind. If Thomas lands on injured reserve, you could be forced to make a business decision.
Don’t forget, for the latest on everything NFL, check out NBC Sports EDGE’s Player News, or follow @NBCSEdgeFB or @RotoPat on Twitter.
Five More Week 4 Storylines
Daniel Jones continues his “soft” third-year Josh Allen breakout. Jones’ 400-yard game was the first of his career, and came with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton both on the shelf with hamstring issues. Kenny Golladay’s YAC was a big part of it, but Jones finally found his high-dollar free agent addition for 100-plus yards, while he also took advantage of first-round rookie Kadarius Toney’s rare cutting ability out of the slot. Jones even took a shot or two down the field, finding true burner John Ross for a 52-yard score. That bomb aside, Jones still mostly feared to tread deep or near the sideline, letting his pass catchers do the work after the catch. The good news is, he at least put them in position to do so. Throw in Jones’ continued rushing involvement, and he is pushing for weekly streamer consideration. The Cowboys will offer plenty of compiling upside for Week 5.
Saquon Barkley takes the next step in his recovery. Barkley was perhaps the biggest part of Jones’ big day, looking like a wideout on a sideline target where he used his speed to make a 54-yard house call. Barkley’s lateral agility appeared all the way back after incrementally progressing in Weeks 1-3. He was jump cutting like few backs in the league can. There still wasn’t much rushing room behind the Giants’ awful offensive line against a stout Saints defense, but Barkley has just about checked all the boxes. His usage is returning to its 2018-19 norms. There will be no snap rationing. Already in the top 10 for Week 4, Barkley won’t be ranked outside the top 12 again this season.
Alvin Kamara sets new career high for carries, receives zero targets. Opposite Barkley was the new normal in the Saints’ backfield, with Kamara clearing 20 totes for the third time in four games after previously reaching that number once his entire career. The trade off, of course, was the decreased usage in the passing game. The Joker moments were Taysom Hill’s goal-line carries, both converted for eight-yard scores. Although this is not the Kamara you thought you were signing up for, he is still an RB1. The zero-target day was a fluke. It probably won’t be the 6-8 he saw in 2020, but 3-6 weekly looks remains a realistic weekly bet. Behind Kamara, Tony Jones Jr. suffered an ankle injury, further burnishing Kamara’s carries floor. One way or another, Kamara is going to post top-five numbers in 2021.
Ravens make Latavius Murray leader of their backfield. Kamara’s longtime backup took a spin in the lead chair for the Ravens in Denver, with coach John Harbaugh going so far as to make Ty’Son Williams a healthy scratch. Murray responded with a middling 18/59/1 but none of the Williams mistakes that so irritated the coaching staff. The Ravens want stability more than big-play ability alongside Lamar Jackson right now, and that is what Murray provided. His workloads finally seem safe enough to trust him as a high-floor FLEX who will not lack for scoring opportunities in this offense.
Dawson Knox scores for third straight game. With four touchdowns over his past three games, Knox has surged to TE4 overall status based on total half PPR points. His targets have increased from three to five to eight over the past three weeks. Knox has become a point of emphasis for the Bills in the red zone, increasing his floor and ceiling even if eight targets is probably his ceiling in this crowded offense. With tight end completely collapsed beyond the top 6-7 options, Knox is probably deserving of some TE1 benefit of the doubt. Week 5 opponent Kansas City will enter a guaranteed shootout permitting the fourth most tight end fantasy points.
Questions
1. Is there any doubt that Steve Belichick is going 1-16 as the 2024 coach of the Atlanta Falcons?
2. Who is more likely to still be with their team in Week 18: Urban Meyer or Ben Roethlisberger?
3. How has the State Department not intervened with the exportation of Jets/Falcons to London?
Early Waiver Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Sam Darnold (vs. PHI), Daniel Jones (@DAL), Trey Lance (@AZ), Taylor Heinicke (vs. NO), Justin Fields (@LV), Mac Jones (@HOU)
RB: Latavius Murray, J.D. McKissic, Kenneth Gainwell, Damien Williams, Malcolm Brown, Darrel Williams, Dwayne Washington
WR: Darnell Mooney, Kadarius Toney, Curtis Samuel, Tim Patrick, Rashod Bateman, A.J. Green, Randall Cobb, Kendrick Bourne, Quintez Cephus
TE: Dawson Knox, Hunter Henry, Dalton Schultz, Tyler Conklin, Maxx Williams, Dan Arnold
DEF: Vikings (vs. DET), Falcons (vs. NYJ), Panthers (vs. PHI), Cardinals (vs. SF), Raiders (vs. CHI), Cowboys (vs. NYG), Titans (@JAX), Jets (vs. ATL)
Stats of the Week
Five. That is Sam Darnold’s league-leading rushing touchdown total.
22.5. Dalton Schultz’s targets share in three games without Michael Gallup. Schultz out-routed Blake Jarwin 23-10 vs. the Panthers.
33-30. That was Malcolm Brown’s snap advantage over Myles Gaskin. The Dolphins have no clue what they want to do with their backfield other than they don’t want Gaskin to be a bell-cow. Add Brown back to your 12-team league rosters even if you’re just going to immediately cut him again in Week 6.
139. Chase Edmonds’ yards from scrimmage total was the third highest of his career, but two was still the most important number. That was the number of goal-line carries James Conner cashed in for scores. This usage will not be changing any time soon.
Robby Anderson’s 11 targets were five more than his previous season high. As Dwain McFarland tells it, Anderson ran routes on 90 percent of his pass plays, commanded a 28 percent target share and 40 percent air yards share. Coach Matt Rhule followed through on his pledge to get Anderson more involved.
Via Denny Carter via Pro Football Focus: Baker Mayfield’s 58.6 adjusted completion percentage was the lowest of Week 4. For the season, Mayfield’s 73.3 mark is the league’s seventh worst.
Awards Section
Week 4 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Sam Darnold, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Deebo Samuel, WR D.J. Moore, TE C.J. Uzomah (lol)
Tweet of the Week: “Interesting..” Geno Smith’s response to the revelation that he was the last rookie quarterback to beat Tom Brady.
Weird Flex Award: The Falcons dedicating their season to making Cordarrelle Patterson the premier offensive weapon in football and exposing the 2013 Vikings for their C-Patt misuse.
The Is That Good? Award: Rob Gronkowski still having the second most tight end fantasy points after missing Week 4.
Madden Glitch of the Week: The Jared Goff interception that never touched his hands.
Nathan Peterman Memorial Award: Davis Mills looking 40-0 with four interceptions in The House That Peterman Built.