Lawrence Jackson Jr. breaks down the fantasy outlooks for Justin Fields, D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet and the rest of the Chicago Bears.
2022 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 19.2 (23rd)
Total yards per game: 307.8 (28th)
Plays per game: 58.4 (30th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 25.6 (32nd)
Drop back EPA per play: -0.07 (27th)
Rush attempts per game: 32.8 (2nd)
Rush EPA per play: 0 (6th)
Coaching Staff
The defensive-minded head coach Matt Eberflus returns for his second stint at the helm after getting a pass on the Bears’ 3-14 season in 2022. Plenty of reason for that record was in fact the defense which ranked the fourth worst in the league last season. It also gave up 27.2 points per game which was worst in the NFL. The team added reinforcements on both sides of the ball in hopes of competing for a division title that seems all too wide open. Many (wildly and incorrectly) speculated the Bears’ staff would explore the option of drafting a quarterback upon receiving the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Instead, Eberflus and GM Ryan Poles made moves and constructed a roster that should be well equipped to compete in 2023.
Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will be tasked with taking his offense to new heights in 2023. That’ll include finding consistency in the offense outside of Justin Fields’ running ability which led him to run for 1,143 yards last season, second-best all-time amongst quarterbacks. I’m Weeks 7-11 last season the offense scored 29.6 points per game before running into some of the league’s better defenses (Eagles, Bills and Jets) down the stretch. While the run game will once again be very important in the Bears’ offense, Getsy will be looking to keep teams off balance by utilizing Fields’ more in the passing game, which improved as the season went on in 2023.
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Passing Game
QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
WR: D.J. Moore, Equanimeous St. Brown
WR: Darnell Mooney, Velus Jones
WR: Chase Claypool, Tyler Scott
TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan
The Bears have gotten behind their third-year quarterback Fields by supplying him with upgrades on the offensive line and at wide receiver. While his career stats aren’t pretty from a passing standpoint (4,112 yards, 24 touchdowns, 21 interceptions and 59.7% completion rate), he came a more efficient passer as the 2022 season went on:
First seven games: 76-of-136 (55.8%), 1,048 yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions.
Next eight games: 116-of-182 (63.7%), 1,194 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions.
There isn’t much reason to keep beating the drum of “he has to improve as a passer” when these numbers show that he has and will continue to do so. Fields is a strong candidate to score the most points in fantasy football this season. Improved numbers in the passing game along with his elite rushing ability from the quarterback position make him worthy of being drafted before the middle rounds.
The Bears trading for Moore was definitely a step in the right direction towards improving the Bears’ passing game. It gives them an unquestioned number one wide receiver. Moore is coming off of a season in which he finished as WR32 on a points per game basis with 11.7, the worst of his career. He’ll get the luxury of stabilization at quarterback which is something he’s never had. Based on what Moore has been able to do in his career thus far and you consider all things, 2023 could be his best season yet. Mooney should return to form to solidify the Bears’ WR2 spot as he operated as the team’s top option in 2022 before a season-ending injury. While he’ll be more of a late-round flier, he’s the next Bears’ receiver you want to draft. In a contract year, Claypool will need to show the Bears (or another team) that he’s capable of being a consistent weapon in the team’s offense. Jones or Scott could potentially push Claypool for snaps if things don’t work out.
Kmet took a major dip in targets from 2021 to 2022 (93 to 69) but was more efficient as a receiver catching 50 passes for 544 yards and a career-high seven touchdowns. Targets were hard to come by (especially the first half of the season) in the run-based offense, but Kmet made them count. He’s likely the pass catcher in the Bears’ offense you’d want to draft after Moore. Tonyan will serve as Kurt’s backup, and he’ll be a quality one. He himself is coming off of a season where he caught a career-high 53 passes on 67 targets in 2022. This type of volume will be a thing of the past with a crowded receiver room along with Kmet. Tonyan does however help them solidify a nice tight end duo.
Running Game
RB: Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer
OL (L-R): Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins, Cody Whitehair, Nate Davis, Darnell Wright
We know the Bears’ running game will be dominant as it easily led the NFL in rushing yards per game (177.3) last season. When you have a quarterback in Justin Fields who’s a threat to top 1,000 yards it’s always attainable. That’s also part of the reason why this may in fact be the trickiest backfield in the NFL when it comes to fantasy. The trick is finding out who the production will come from. Herbert is coming off a very efficient season running gaining 731 yards on the ground on 129 carries. The Bears added Foreman after he too had a career-year rumbling for 914 yards and five touchdowns last season with the Panthers. The icing on this confusing RB cake ends with rookie running back Roschon Johnson who was drafted in the fourth round. The reality is that we’re likely staring down the barrel of a three-man committee which will be great for football purposes, but Hell for fantasy managers. All three backs will be worth picking late in redraft formats, but the one with the slight edge at this point seems to be Herbert. The Bears’ backfield is one you should try to avoid unless his last name is Fields.
The young offensive line struggled in 2022 because of a combination of injuries, lineup changes and inexperience. Veteran (and former pro-bowl) center Cody Whitehair missed much of last season but will be back to anchor the unit. Guard Nate Davis, who spent the previous four seasons blocking for Derrick Henry, was brought in on a three-year $30 million dollar deal to help shore up the line. Teven Jenkins and Braxton Jones look to improve after gaining experience of being thrown into the fire in 2022. Jones started in all 17 games last season as a rookie fifth-round pick. Last but certainly not least, Darnell Wright will man the right tackle spot after being selected 10th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Bears feel like they have the best lineman in this year’s draft, Wright will need to excel early to help the Bears’ offense get to the next level.
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Win Total
The powers that be expect the Bears to make the leap from their 3-14 season a year ago by setting their win total Over/Under at 7.5. They’ve made improvements on both sides of the ball, but the defensive line is where there is a glaring hole. The Bears are currently without an interior defensive lineman or edge rusher that’ll instill fear in the opposing offense. If someone can step up or the plate in that department, they could easily hit the over on 7.5 wins. Still, with them playing their own (weakened) division and also the NFC South, I can see them mustering up enough talent on the offense side of the ball and defensive backend to compete for a division title. It’ll be tough, but the Bears can improve five games from 2022.
