Welcome to the 12th edition of Waiver Wired for the 2016 season, although it is hard to feel welcome after a devastating week of injuries. The carnage started early when A.J. Green pulled up with a hamstring injury on the Bengals’ second play. Although early reports had Green missing the rest of the year, coach Marvin Lewis said Monday he will play again this season. That could certainly change if Cincinnati falls completely out of the playoff picture, but for now, Green should be held in all leagues.
Green’s injury alone would have made for a terrible week for Cincinnati, but it was revealed after the game Giovani Bernard suffered a torn ACL and is done for the season. Already a lost year for the Bengals, they will now have to figure out how to replace 45 percent of their targets for at least the next couple weeks and perhaps longer. Tyler Eifert, Brandon LaFell, and Tyler Boyd will play the biggest roles in that effort, but they could also lean more on Jeremy Hill and the running game.
The damage was not just limited to Cincinnati, either. C.J. Prosise (shoulder), Jay Cutler (shoulder), Zach Miller (foot), and Cody Kessler (concussion) all suffered injuries which are or could be season-ending, Robert Woods (knee) seems likely to miss a couple games, and Andrew Luck (concussion), LeSean McCoy (thumb), Mark Ingram (concussion), T.J. Yeldon (ankle), Ryan Mathews (knee), and Darren Sproles (ribs) suffered what look like minor injuries. Those minor injuries could turn into multi-week issues as well depending on things go this week.
Luck was not announced with a concussion during the game, suggesting his symptoms showed up Monday. That is a bad sign for his availability on a short week, and The Indianapolis Star’s Zak Keefer believes it is “highly unlikely” Luck suits up Thursday. Needless to say, every offensive player will take a massive hit if Scott Tolzien is forced to start against the Steelers.
Prosise’s injury is the most disappointing of the bunch after he took an early handoff 72 yards to the house against the Eagles. Even if Prosise is able to return this season, it likely will not be in time to help fantasy owners. He can be sent to the wire in all redraft leagues. Thomas Rawls took over as the clear No. 1 back after Prosise left, and he is a must-add in the 28 percent of leagues he is still available.
With Mathews and Sproles sidelined, Wendell Smallwood operated as the clear lead back, logging nine carries in the second half. Sproles looks set to play this week, but Mathews will likely sit despite coach Doug Pederson calling him day-to-day on Monday. Smallwood will at worst be the early-down option against a Packers defense which was just shredded by Rob Kelley, and he could be close to an every-down back if Sproles suffers a setback. He is the No. 1 running back add this week.
McCoy had surgery on his thumb late Sunday night or early Monday morning, but the Bills still expect him to play this week. Mike Gillislee will get the start if McCoy cannot go, and Rex Ryan at least suggested that was a possibility on Monday. He is worth adding in all leagues until this situation sorts out. The beneficiary of Woods’ likely absence is not as clear, but there are rumors Sammy Watkins could return this week. He needs to be added in all leagues.
Finally, Chris Ivory operated as the clear lead back with Yeldon sidelined and had the best receiving game of his career. There has not been much news on Yeldon’s status aside from a vague day-to-day tag, but Ivory will have borderline RB2 value as long as Yeldon is out, although a tough matchup with the Bills this week dampens his waiver-wire appeal.
As always, the drop list consists of players who are no longer must-owns, recommended adds are available in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues, the watch list consists of players who are worthy of a roster spot if possible, and deep cuts are players owned in five percent or less of Yahoo leagues.
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The Drop List
QB: Andy Dalton
RB: C.J. Prosise, Matt Jones
WR: Tavon Austin, Sammie Coates
TE: Julius Thomas
A.J. Green had been responsible for 31.6 percent of Dalton’s completions, 37.8 percent of his yards, and 40 percent of his touchdowns entering this week. Already a mediocre fantasy option, Dalton will be difficult to trust without his No. 1 receiver and his best pass-catching back. If Prosise is able to come back, it will not be until after the fantasy season is finished. It is over for Jones in Washington this season. Barring injury, the job is Rob Kelley’s for the rest of the year and perhaps longer. Jones is nothing more than a handcuff. Perhaps my programming prevented me from seeing it until now (What door?), but Tavon Austin is somehow still 71 percent owned in Yahoo leagues. He is the WR71 in per-game scoring in standard and WR65 in PPR. Drop him. We gave Thomas a chance, and he face-planted in the best possible matchup. He still has not topped 30 yards since Week 2. Thomas is an extreme touchdown-or-bust option.
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Quarterbacks
1. Colin Kaepernick
2. Sam Bradford
3. Carson Wentz
Running Backs
Thomas Rawls owned in 72% of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 add if available
Tim Hightower owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues. No. 3 add if available
1. Wendell Smallwood
2. Chris Ivory
3. Mike Gillislee
4. Bilal Powell
5. Kenneth Dixon
Wide Receivers
1. Sammy Watkins
2. Brandon LaFell
3. Tyler Boyd
4. Marqise Lee
5. Pierre Garcon
6. Eli Rogers
7. Tyreek Hill
Tight Ends
1. C.J. Fiedorowicz
2. Jared Cook
3. Austin Hooper
4. Will Tye
5. Vance McDonald
Defense/Special Teams
1. Tennessee Titans
2. San Diego Chargers
3. New York Giants
Looking Ahead: Baltimore Ravens
Kickers
1. Caleb Sturgis
2. Nick Novak
3. Chandler Catanzaro
Looking Ahead: Brandon McManus
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QUARTERBACKS
1. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers – Owned in 18 percent of Yahoo leagues
The spot is not great with the 49ers traveling to the east coast for an early kick against an improving Dolphins defense, but Kaepernick has been too good to sit since the bye week. He has finished inside the top-10 at the position each of the last three weeks including top-seven performances each of the last two games. Good for at least three points with his legs with the upside for much more and throwing the ball better of late, Kaepernick will be a legitimate option in 10-team leagues most weeks.
Recommendation: Streaming option in 10-team leagues
2. Sam Bradford, Vikings – Owned in 12 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Streaming option in 12-team leagues
3. Carson Wentz, Eagles – Owned in 32 percent of Yahoo leagues
Wentz has been bad enough that putting him back on this list is difficult, but the matchup is too good to pass up in deeper leagues. The Packers have given up 1,239 passing yards in the last four games and opposing offenses have scored 153 points over that span including at least 42 in the last two games. It is certainly possible the Eagles attempt to execute the ball-control offense which netted them a win against the Falcons at home in Week 10, but Wentz could post a top-12 week even on limited attempts against a defense which is tied with the Browns for the most touchdowns passes of 15 yards or more allowed this season. Wentz has played poorly and the gamescript could end up being run-heavy, but the rookie is worth the risk in deeper leagues.
Recommendation: Streaming option in 14-team leagues
Watch List:
Ryan Tannehill will likely get some streamer love at home against the 49ers this week, but he is averaging 28.6 pass attempts during the Dolphins’ five-game winning streak. He is a low-floor and low-upside option…Five of Joe Flacco’s 10 passing touchdowns have come in two games against the Browns. He has one or fewer in his other eight games…It probably does not need to be said, but Alex Smith in Denver is not a great idea…Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start against the Patriots, but he has not done anything to show he can be a viable streamer even in a solid matchup…Trevor Siemian is healthy enough to play, but he has not shown much upside this season and does not have a great matchup…The Saints defense is playing better, and Jeff Fisher would be happy if Jared Goff threw zero passes…Josh McCown has struggled in relief the last two weeks and has to face a surging Giants defense. Robert Griffin III is not going to be ready this week, but it looks like he will return to the starting lineup at some point season.RUNNING BACKS
1. Wendell Smallwood, Eagles – Owned in 3 percent of Yahoo leagues
The injury situation in Philly is complicated, but Smallwood has plenty of avenues to value this week. The first would be both Ryan Mathews (knee) and Darren Sproles (ribs) sitting, leaving Smallwood as basically an every-down back. That seems unlikely, however, with Sproles looking set to play, but he still could serve as the early-down workhorse if Mathews is not able to play. Despite coach Doug Pederson calling him day-to-day on Monday, that seems like a real possibility considering the nature of the injury (sprained MCL) and Mathews’ history. Even if both backs are able to suit up, Smallwood could still return value if the Eagles decide to employ the ball-control offense which worked so well in a win against the Falcons Week 10. That game plan would make sense at home against Aaron Rodgers, and Smallwood was able to turn 13 carries into 70 yards in that contest. That possibility gives Smallwood a solid RB3 floor, and he has the upside for much more.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
2. Chris Ivory, Jaguars – Owned in 48 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
3. Mike Gillislee, Bills – Owned in 25 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
4. Bilal Powell, Jets – Owned in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
5. Kenneth Dixon, Ravens – Owned in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues Watch List: Before we start, it is important to remind everyone the watch list consists of players who could possibly be added but are not must-owns. Even with news Adrian Peterson could return from his knee injury as early as Week 15, every Minnesota back falls into this category. First up is Jerick McKinnon, who should have a more stable workload following Ronnie Hillman’s release. Still, he only managed 44 yards on 16 carries against the Cardinals, and Matt Asiata vultured a short touchdown. There is not much upside for either player in one of the worst rushing attacks of all time. Let other owners buy up the fool’s gold. As for Peterson, he is not expected back until Week 15 at the earliest, and he had just 50 yards on 31 carries before going down. The name and the actual upside do not match, making Peterson sure to be overvalued on the wire…Jordan Howard looked fine after his injury scare last week, and Jeremy Langford reverted back to a breather role. Howard just happened to need a breather at the goal line…With Rashad Jennings taking back the lead role, Paul Perkins is nothing more than a bench stash in deeper leagues…Chris Thompson is who he is at this point, and that is not a viable fantasy option…Jalen Richard appears to have jumped DeAndre Washington for the No. 2 job in Oakland, but neither has much standalone value…Ameer Abdullah and Charles Sims are in similar positions as potential injury returnees with reasonable upside during the fantasy playoffs. There has been much more information recently about Abdullah, who is scheduled to see a specialist this week in an attempt to gain medical clearance, suggesting he is closer to a return, but coach Dirk Koetter has already said Sims will come back this season. Of the potential injury additions, Abdullah is the best bet followed by Peterson, Sims, and Shane Vereen.
Handcuffs: As we near the end of the season, it makes more and more sense for good teams to handcuff their top running backs. Depth is not as important in a one-and-done format, and losing a star player with no contingency plan could cost a good team a shot at the title. With that in mind, here is an ordered list of the highest-upside handcuffs available in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues: Derrick Henry, Alfred Morris, Andre Ellington, DuJuan Harris, Charcandrick West, Matt Jones, Kapri Bibbs, Jeremy Langford, Cameron Artis-Payne, Peyton Barber, Kenneth Farrow, Robert Turbin, Alfred Blue (if healthy), Damien Williams, and Fitzgerald Toussaint.
Deep Cuts: Dwayne Washington had a bigger than expected role with Theo Riddick dealing with a hand injury, but he failed to do anything with the work, gaining just six yards on 13 carries. Even if he continues to get work this week, he is not going to have much more success against the Vikings…The Bengals will likely add someone with Gio Bernard done for the season, but Rex Burkhead is the in-house option for the passing-back role…Akeem Hunt flopped in a chance to earn more work Monday night…Shane Vereen is kind of in the same role as Abdullah and Sims but with even less upside. Still, he can be stashed in deep leagues…Darren McFadden may begin practicing soon, but he is not going to have any fantasy value…Kenjon Barner should get some more work if Darren Sproles is forced to sit...Shaun Draughn caught a touchdown, but he played just nine snaps.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Sammy Watkins, Bills – Owned in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues
This might be the last time to nab Watkins with Rex Ryan hopeful he can “play some” this week against the Jags. He will not be worth using even if active this week, but he closes out the season with the Raiders, Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, and Jets the final five weeks. If he comes back healthy, which it appears very likely he will, he has week-winning upside. Watkins needs to be added everywhere.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
2. Brandon LaFell, Bengals – Owned in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues
3. Tyler Boyd, Bengals – Owned in 5 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
4. Marqise Lee, Jaguars – Owned in 6 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
5. Pierre Garcon, Redskins – Owned in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
6. Eli Rogers, Steelers – Owned in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
7. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs – Owned in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues Watch List: Tajae Sharpe looks like an add after back-to-back games with 68 yards and a touchdown, but his upcoming schedule is brutal. After facing the Bears this week, Sharpe has a bye, the Broncos, the Chiefs, the Jaguars, and the Texans the final four weeks. All four teams rank in the top-13 in defensive pass efficiency…Not fully healthy and playing with Brock Osweiler, Will Fuller is nothing more than a stash…With Carson Palmer regressing with every throw and no clarity on the pecking order, all Arizona receivers not named Larry Fitzgerald can be left on the wire…Unfortunately, Tyler Lockett failed to build off his good performance against the Patriots, and he looks destined for a limited role all season…Eddie Royal might have a bigger role with Zach Miller done for the season, but the Bears’ passing game is one to avoid with Jay Cutler possibly out for the year…There is no reason to believe in Quincy Enunwa right now… Adam Humphries is stuck in a timeshare with the likes of Cecil Shorts and Russell Shepard…Ted Ginn repaid our streaming faith in a good matchup, but he should have a tougher time against an improving Raiders defense this week. Devin Funchess has no value outside of Dynasty formats…Anquan Boldin is a touchdown-or-bust option outside of very deep PPR formats…Despite a long catch against the Titans, Phillip Dorsett is not involved enough to return consistent fantasy value. That is especially true with Andrew Luck likely to sit with a concussion…Chris Hogan could return from a back injury this week, but he might start losing snaps to Malcolm Mitchell. He is a low-volume dart throw in the best of times. The same is true of Danny Amendola…Kendall Wright continues to play limited snaps behind both Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe, killing his chances at consistent fantasy value…Jeremy Kerley turned back into a pumpkin against the Patriots…Kenny Stills saw nine targets with the Dolphins actually forced to throw in Los Angeles, but that is not going to happen most weeks…Percy Harvin would figure to be the No. 1 receiver along with perhaps Marquise Goodwin if both Robert Woods (knee) and Sammy Watkins (foot) sit out this week. Neither is exciting against an underrated Jaguars pass defense.
Deep Cuts: With Nelson Agholor imploding, Dorial Green-Beckham should serve as the No. 2 moving forward. Still, that position has failed to create much fantasy value this season, and he did not do much outside of a garbage-time touchdown against the Seahawks…Cordarrelle Patterson has stayed involved in the offense, but he has not done much with the targets. That volume is valuable in deeper leagues, however. Adam Thielen has been much more efficient, but his big game against the Cardinals was a product of Arizona shadowing Stefon Diggs with Patrick Peterson, and he still only saw five targets…Malcolm Mitchell had a big game, but he will likely take a backseat once Chris Hogan returns. That said, he likely earned a few more snaps…Braxton Miller played ahead of Will Fuller Monday night, but it does not matter much with Brock Osweiler under center…With Travis Benjamin back, Dontrelle Inman can be sent back to the wire…Taylor Gabriel appeared to be carving out a role before the bye…Cobi Hamilton has been getting the snaps and had five targets against the Browns, but he has yet to really do anything with them.
TIGHT ENDS
1. C.J. Fiedorowicz, Texans – Owned in 22 percent of Yahoo leagues
Fiedorowicz has proven to be a reliable fantasy option as of late, securing at least five catches in four of the last five games. He has also topped 80 yards twice in that span including Monday night and has two touchdowns. With the Chargers, Packers, and Colts up next on the schedule, he will be a good option to have down the stretch.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
2. Jared Cook, Packers – Owned in 12 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Streaming option in 10-team leagues
3. Austin Hooper, Falcons – Owned in 4 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Streaming option in 12-team leagues
4. Will Tye, Giants – Owned in 2 percent of Yahoo leagues
Recommendation: Streaming option in 14-team leagues
5. Vance McDonald, 49ers – Owned in 8 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Dolphins do not offer a great matchup, but McDonald has six targets in four consecutive games and at least three catches in the last three. With viable big-play upside, McDonald will be a streaming option in deeper leagues as long as he continues to get this kind of volume.
Recommendation: Streaming option in 14-team leagues
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Tennessee Titans – Owned in 16 percent of Yahoo leagues
With Zach Miller already out for the season and Jay Cutler headed that way, the Bears will be an offense to target the rest of the way. It helps that the Titans are third in the league in sacks and have forced nine interceptions.
2. San Diego Chargers – Owned in 18 percent of Yahoo leagues
3. New York Giants – Owned in 47 percent of Yahoo leagues
Looking Ahead:
Considering how well they play the run, the Ravens will be in a good spot at home against the Dolphins Week 13. They should be able to force Ryan Tannehill to throw, and that usually works out well. KICKERS
1. Caleb Sturgis, Eagles – Owned in 43 percent of Yahoo leagues
Sturgis had attempted multiple kicks in every game before the trip to Seattle, and he should get back on track against the Packers Monday night.
Novak has been consistently good all season, and he gets to kick at home against the Chargers this week.
3. Chandler Catanzaro, Cardinals – Owned in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues