We made it. Months and months of fantasy preparation were poured in over the summer and all that work is about to be put to the test as Week 1 of the NFL season is finally upon us. The NFL is inherently a fluid game, with things in constant motion. What was yesterday isn’t always tomorrow and then will be different in the middle of the season. So with a fresh start to a new season, taking an evidence-based approach is easier said than done. Large grains of salt need to be applied over the opening weeks of the season. For those that have followed this article in previous seasons, you’ll know the accuracy ramps as we roll on. Still, that doesn’t mean we must throw everything out from the past when looking ahead.
For those that are new here, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re looking through a PPR-scoring lens here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.
As the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is an expectations-based column over a linear start/sit forum. The labels for each subset of players for each game is simply the vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player. Players that are high performers week-to-week are held to different standards than a secondary option in an offense. Every player runs into down weeks, and we’re trying to identify those moments, even for the star players you’re going to ride through thick and thin moments that don’t tally many low points during the season. That said, we’re still embracing some of the elements that will go along with a start/sit column as a byproduct of those expectations. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. If you are curious as to my personal weekly rankings, they can be found each and every week in the Season Pass section.
With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 1 games…
All lines are taken from VegasInsider on Tuesday nights and will updated again on Saturday
Falcons @ Eagles
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Philadelphia | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 21.3 | Implied Total | 23.8 | ||
| 21.6 | 15 | Points/Gm | 29.0 | 1 |
| 19.1 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 18.2 | 4 |
| 61.9 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 66.9 | 3 |
| 62.3 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 6 |
| 43.9% | 11 | Rush% | 44.2% | 9 |
| 56.1% | 22 | Pass% | 55.8% | 24 |
| 40.1% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 33.8% | 1 |
| 59.9% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 66.2% | 32 |
- These two teams have met in Philadelphia in each of the past two seasons, with the total score falling 9.5 points and 15 points below the over/under in those matchups.
- Over the two meetings versus the Eagles in each of the past two seasons, the Falcons have scored on just 6-of-21 drives (28.6 percent) and a touchdown on 2-of-21 drives (9.5 percent) as opposed to scoring on 57.5 percent of their drives and a touchdown on 37.3 percent of their possessions versus other teams over that span.
- Devonta Freeman‘s average target share per game has gone from 16.5 percent to 12.2 percent to 9.5 percent over each of the past three seasons.
- Just 30.9 percent of the fantasy points allowed by the Eagles to skill positions in 2017 was to opposing backfields, the lowest rate in the league.
- Julio Jones has gone over 100-yards receiving in four consecutive games versus the Eagles, the longest streak by an opponent in Philadelphia franchise history.
- No wide receiver was targeted more per route in 2017 than Jones at 30.5 percent. He’s ranked fourth, second, eighth and eighth in the same metric over the previous four seasons.
- Zach Ertz is the first Eagles player ever to record at least 70 receptions in three consecutive seasons.
- No wide receiver scored more fantasy points from the slot last season than Nelson Agholor (177.2 points). That total accounted for 94.5 percent of his fantasy output.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Falcons cornerback Brian Poole allowed a 84.6 percent catch rate while targeted in the slot in 2017, the highest rate for all cornerbacks.
- Atlanta has ranked 30th or lower in receiving points per game allowed to opposing backfields in each of the past three seasons and has allowed the most receptions to running backs in each of those seasons.
Trust (spike starting production): Julio Jones (the Eagles are a natural pass funnel and their gameplan against Atlanta the past two seasons has been content with letting Jones stack receptions and yardage while shutting everyone else out), Nelson Agholor (he stands to get a target spike without Alshon Jeffery on the field and will get the friendliest of individual matchups on the interior versus Brian Poole while he was second on team in targets with Foles under center a year ago)
Bust (underperformance): Nick Foles (I don’t believe the version of Foles we saw in the preseason will make an appearance here with more of his starting unit on the field, but with no Jeffery and expecting this game to be on the lower-scoring end, he’s in the lower QB2 end of the pool Week 1), Mike Wallace (he should see increased usage with Jeffery sidelined to open the season, but your roster is too strong to dig this deep to start the season and both will draw tougher assignments on the perimeter against Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford), Matt Ryan (this current Eagles defense under Jim Schwartz has had Ryan’s number in Philadelphia in each of the past two meetings as Ryan has thrown for 210 and 267 yards with just two total touchdowns), Devonta Freeman (Atlanta should remain on script here to give Freeman rushing volume throughout the game, but he’s going to need a short touchdown to carry him against a defense that allowed just 3.4 YPC to backfields a year ago and has held Freeman himself to 56 rushing yards on 22 carries over the past two times he’s faced this regime), Mohamed Sanu (he’s caught just five passes for 64 yards total in those matchups with the Eagles and is still a low-volume target that is reliant on finding the end zone)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Zach Ertz (Atlanta was fairly stingy to tight ends a year ago, allowing just four players to reach five receptions in a game while Ertz posted just a 3-32 line when these teams played in the postseason a year ago, but with no Jeffery in the lineup and the boundary wideouts drawing the worst assignments, Ertz should be heavily involved and he was targeted 22.5 percent of the time by Foles, highest rate on the team), Tevin Coleman (an RB3/FLEX swing that averaged just 10.2 touches per game in the weeks he played alongside Freeman a year ago), Jay Ajayi (he’s practicing in full this week, ensuring that he’ll lead this backfield in rushing attempts while he should catch a few more passes against a defense geared to give space to backs out of the backfield)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Corey Clement (the Falcons have been a defense to target in the passing game for backfields and while Darren Sproles may also make an impact here on a limited basis, Clement holds higher touchdown appeal of the two to earn FLEX status in needy leagues)
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Bengals @ Colts
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 22.8 | Implied Total | 25.8 | ||
| 18.1 | 25 | Points/Gm | 16.4 | 30 |
| 21.8 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 25.2 | 30 |
| 57.9 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 23 |
| 68.2 | 32 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 19 |
| 40.7% | 19 | Rush% | 45.4% | 6 |
| 59.3% | 14 | Pass% | 54.6% | 27 |
| 44.8% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 47.6% | 32 |
| 55.2% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 52.4% | 1 |
- Indianapolis has covered in just one of their past 10 season openers.
- The Colts Bengals ranked 32nd in rushing attempts faced per game (26.9) while the Colts ranked 31st (26.6) a year ago.
- The Bengals ran the fewest offensive plays in the league last year (57.9 per game), their third-fewest per game average over their 50-year history and their fewest in a season since 1969.
- Only 59.7 percent of A.J. Green‘s targets were deemed catchable per Pro Football Focus in 2017, the lowest mark of his career after an average of 67.9 percent catchable targets per season over his six previous seasons.
- 20 percent of the completions against the Colts last season gained 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- Jack Doyle led all tight ends in snap rate (88.9 percent), ranked fourth in routes run per game (30.3) and seventh in target rate per route (22.4 percent) in 2017.
Trust (spike starting production): Andy Dalton/A.J. Green (this Colts starting secondary is very green as they don’t have a player with more than 13 career starts across their top-four corners and two safeties with four of those six players playing in 16 career games or less. Expect a lot of zone coverage with little pressure, allowing Dalton – the QB3 in this matchup a year ago - to pepper his best wideout often, who has historically performed better on the road), Joe Mixon (game script should be in his favor and he closed 2017 with 26 and 19 touches in his final two full games played while the Bengals have shown they are more open to using his passing game versatility this preseason), Jack Doyle (he torched this defense for 12-121-1 a year ago with Jacoby Brissett under center while he still dominated first-team opportunities all preseason. With the Bengals offering stiff competition to the Indianapolis wide receiving unit, Doyle could lead the team in targets to open the season)
Bust (underperformance): Andrew Luck (in his first full game since New Year’s Day 2017, expectations should be tempered as his preseason depth of target was a pedestrian 5.7 yards downfield on 32 passes while going against a defense that ranked 8th in passing yards allowed to quarterbacks a year ago), T.Y. Hilton (the targets should still be here to take a shot on a play or two as a WR3 option, but the Bengals have been one of the stingiest defenses to wideouts for a few years running, including last season when they ranked 5th in points allowed per game to the position), Christine Michael/Jordan Wilkins (with Marlon Mack still nursing a hamstring injury, both should get opportunities in the running game, but just how long and effectively the Colts can run the ball is a question mark)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Giovani Bernard (he should rotate into the lineup more often earlier in the season than he did a year ago prior to Mixon’s injury, giving him RB3/FLEX appeal)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): John Ross/Tyler Boyd (expecting the Colts to play a lot of soft coverage with a truly green secondary may not allow for that splash play we’ll be chasing often from Ross and benefit the interior route-runner that is Boyd, but in a game in which we are highlighting Dalton having one of his better weeks, the ancillary playmakers are in play to take deep shots on), Tyler Eifert (his snap count is expected to be held in check, but all he needs is red zone opportunities at his position in a game in which we’re all in on the Bengals’ passing attack), Eric Ebron (his target opportunity to start the year is a true mystery, but if there’s a game that lines up for Ebron to be involved, it’s against a cornerback group that is strong enough to bottle up Hilton, but has exploitable linebacker and safety play that Ebron himself touched up for 5-83-1 in Week 16 of last season)
Bills @ Ravens
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 16.8 | Implied Total | 23.8 | ||
| 17.9 | 27 | Points/Gm | 24.7 | 9 |
| 21.7 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 18.9 | 5 |
| 63.8 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 65.9 | 9 |
| 66.2 | 30 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.3 | 25 |
| 47.9% | 2 | Rush% | 43.6% | 12 |
| 52.1% | 31 | Pass% | 56.4% | 21 |
| 44.4% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 41.6% | 11 |
| 55.6% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 58.4% | 22 |
- After the Ravens’ Week 10 bye in 2017, Alex Collins averaged 19.8 touches per game and was the RB10 for fantasy purposes over that span with five games as the RB14 or higher in weekly PPR scoring.
- Collin’s six rushing touchdowns also matched Todd Gurley and Latavius Murray for the most in the league over that end of the season stretch.
- Buffalo surrendered a league-high 28.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields in 2017.
- 62.5 percent (20-of-32) of the offensive touchdowns scored against Buffalo last season were by opposing running backs, the highest rate in the league.
- 36 percent of opposing drives reached the red zone against Buffalo in 2017, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bills posted a league-best 3.8 percent touchdown rate to opposing passers in 2017. League average outside of Buffalo was 6.9 percent.
Trust (spike starting production): Alex Collins (entering the season as the lead back while Marshal Yanda returns to the offensive line. Buffalo has made some personnel changes in attempt to alter their inability to defend the run from a year ago, but their first-team run defense still had leaky moments this preseason while Collins should be fed opportunity to put that to the test as a huge home favorite)
Bust (underperformance): Joe Flacco (the Bills should allow more passing touchdowns naturally this season if they are going to keep allowing so many red zone opportunities, but the strength of the Buffalo defense is still on the back end and this sets up as a low-volume, yardage game for the Baltimore passing attack), John Brown (defending the deep ball was a strength of this secondary a year ago, ranking 13th in completion rate on throws 15+ yards and ranking second in percentage of receiving yardage allowed on 20+ yard completions), Kelvin Benjamin (no Jimmy Smith on the field is a plus for him, but with low expectations for his quarterback play, you have options elsewhere on your roster), Charles Clay (most of this Buffalo offense is hands-off to start the year and while the Ravens overall numbers versus tight ends were poor, they were carried by a few spike games as they only allowed five or more catches to five tight ends all season and a touchdown in five games to the position), Nathan Peterman (his play in the preseason was far better than anything we saw from him on the field as a rookie, but he’s not an option here on the road against a strong defense)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Michael Crabtree (Buffalo has capable defenders to keep his line in WR3 territory, but where they struggled the most in 2017 was stopping the underneath/possession archetype that Crabtree fits), LeSean McCoy (the touches will still be here to keep him in the lower-RB2 bucket he was drafted in, but attached a large road underdog doesn’t get him any favor beyond a blanket touch count)
Buccaneers @ Saints
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | Spread | -9.5 | ||
| 20.0 | Implied Total | 29.5 | ||
| 20.9 | 18 | Points/Gm | 27.9 | 4 |
| 23.9 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 21.2 | 14 |
| 64.7 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 21 |
| 63.2 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 17 |
| 37.7% | 30 | Rush% | 43.6% | 13 |
| 62.3% | 3 | Pass% | 56.4% | 20 |
| 43.5% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 40.3% | 7 |
| 56.5% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 59.7% | 26 |
- The Saints have ranked first or second in home-field points per game in each of the past three seasons and in four of the past five years.
- Tampa Bay allowed 29.2 points per game on the road last season, the most in the league.
- Since entering the league, Michael Thomas has 25 games with five or more receptions (including all three career games versus Tampa Bay), tied for 2nd in the NFL over that span (Jarvis Landry) and the most such arbitrary games any player has had over their first two seasons in NFL history.
- 39.8 percent of Alvin Kamara‘s touches resulted in a first down last season, the highest rate for all running backs in the league.
- New Orleans ranked 13th in rushing rate overall but ranked 22nd in rushing rate when games were within one possession in either direction.
- Peyton Barber averaged 18 touches for 84 yards per week over the final five weeks of the season in 2017.
- Just four of Barber’s 108 rushing attempts (3.7 percent) gained 10 or more yards in 2017, the lowest rate for all backs with over 100 carries on the season.
Trust (spike starting production): Alvin Kamara (he was the RB1 and the RB3 in his two meetings with the Bucs last year with 152 and 128 yards from scrimmage on 15 and 16 touches playing alongside Mark Ingram), Michael Thomas (a safe-floor option that is du some positive touchdown output going against a subpar secondary)
Bust (underperformance): Ryan Fitzpatrick (a big road dog, he was higher than QB23 in just one of his four starts a year ago) , Mike Evans (caught just 6-of-19 targets for 68 yards in two meetings versus New Orleans a year ago with just 3-of-9 for 38 yards in the coverage of Marshon Lattimore), Ben Watson (there are better weeks to get him into lineups coming up, but Tampa Bay was first in points allowed to tight ends a year ago and allowed just one touchdown to a starting tight end all of 2017), DeSean Jackson/Chris Godwin (there will be opportunities to make plays with Evans occupying Lattimore, but we need more tangible evidence on the plate as to who can elevate behind Evans with both of these two carving into each other’s opportunity)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Drew Brees (this game sets up for Brees to run into similar volume issues he had a year ago with the Saints grinding out the closing quarters while Brees has been inside of the top-10 of fantasy scoring in just one of his past eight games versus the Buccaneers) , Peyton Barber (even in a poor climate as a road underdog, Barber is a RB3/FLEX option with his projected volume and has RB2 upside if he’s able to fall into the end zone), O.J. Howard (as a high TE2, he closed the year averaging 9.7 points per game over his final five weeks and has rolled his first-team usage spike into this preseason)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Ted Ginn (Tampa Bay struggled defending the deep ball last season, allowing a league high 51.4 percent of throws 15-yards or further downfield to be completed while ranking 28th in percentage of passing yardage allowed on those throws. While Ginn has the inline to immediate snaps, Tre’Quan Smith could also be the deepest swing to play off that deep ball use if he can find tangible snaps)
Texans @ Patriots
| Houston | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 22.3 | Implied Total | 28.8 | ||
| 21.1 | 17 | Points/Gm | 28.9 | 2 |
| 27.2 | 32 | Points All./Gm | 19.5 | 7 |
| 64.2 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 67.5 | 1 |
| 60.8 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 21 |
| 43.6% | 14 | Rush% | 40.2% | 23 |
| 56.4% | 19 | Pass% | 59.8% | 10 |
| 45.2% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 38.0% | 4 |
| 54.8% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 62.0% | 29 |
- 25.9 percent of Deshaun Watson‘s pass attempts and 17.5 percent of his completions a year ago were on throws 15-yards or further downfield, the highest rates in the league.
- With Watson on the field, Lamar Miller averaged 76.4 percent pf the team snaps per week as opposed to 60.7 percent otherwise.
- Over those weeks, Miller averaged 19.5 touches for 88.6 yards from scrimmage and 14.9 fantasy points per game as opposed to 15.2 touches for 66.1 yards from scrimmage and 9.4 points per game.
- In five career games versus the Patriots, DeAndre Hopkins has totaled 21 receptions for 326 yards and no touchdowns.
- 42.7 percent of the New England possessions reached the red zone in 2017, the highest rate in the league. They have ranked top-5 in that category in 12 consecutive seasons.
- Houston allowed the most fantasy passing points per pass attempt (.515) in 2017.
- Chris Hogan ran 46.5 percent of his routes from the slot with Julian Edelman inactive a year ago as opposed to 37.5 percent the year prior.
- Hogan ranked fifth in the league in red zone targets (11) and third in targets from inside of the 10-yard line (six) for all players through Week 8 when he was injured.
Trust (spike starting production): Tom Brady (he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in six straight games against Houston and although we shouldn’t expect something along the lines of the 378 yards and five touchdowns he threw for in this matchup a year ago with Houston’s defense being healthy and improved, he’s a locked in as a top-3 option to start the season), Rob Gronkowski (with no Julian Edelman or an established vertical presence, Gronk is set up to hit the ground running while he posted an 8-89-1 line in this matchup a year ago), Deshaun Watson (his rushing and upside will be heightened in a game in which Houston should be forced to match high numbers on the scoreboard)
Bust (underperformance): Rex Burkhead/Jeremy Hill (the Patriots have rushed 47 times for 157 yards – 3.3 YPC- the past two times these teams have met as they should lean heavily on their short passing game right out of the gates. With Hill, we’re chasing a touchdown and since Burkhead missed the entirety of the preseason with a knee injury, we are flying blind on his initial workload, especially at the goal line with Hill), DeAndre Hopkins (you’re easily running him out in lineups, but the Patriots have done a solid job of neutralizing him, failing to top 77-yards receiving in any of their five meetings)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Chris Hogan (he posted a 4-62-1 line in this matchup ago, but 3-61-1 came from the slot, where he’ll line up against Aaron Colvin when he travels inside, a clear upgrade over what Houston at the position a year ago. That said, he’s in line for a healthy target share spike with Edelman absent and we want attachment to Brady), Lamar Miller (the workload is all his to begin the season to give him a solid RB2 floor)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): James White (a FLEX option as he’s the only back with an established role and workload to start the season with the early down options battling injuries and timeshare concerns), Bruce Ellington (he’ll be WR3 and starting in the slot, matching up against a combination of Erik Rowe and Jonathan Jones while he quietly posted 4-59-1 in this matchup a year ago on seven targets)
49ers @ Vikings
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 20.0 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 20.7 | 19 | Points/Gm | 23.2 | 10 |
| 23.9 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 17.4 | 2 |
| 66.1 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 66.3 | 6 |
| 66.6 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 4 |
| 38.6% | 27 | Rush% | 45.9% | 5 |
| 61.4% | 6 | Pass% | 54.1% | 28 |
| 46.1% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 38.5% | 5 |
| 53.9% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 61.6% | 28 |
- The Vikings have covered in 12-of-16 regular season home games over the past two seasons, tied with New England for the most in the league.
- The Vikings were the only team in the league last year that held every visiting team to fewer than 20 points score in the regular season.
- After Jimmy Garoppolo took over as the starter in Week 13, the 49ers scored on 59.5 percent (25-of-42) of their possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- Since Mike Zimmer has been in Minnesota, the Vikings have gone from 20th (35.9 percent), to 14th (34.9 percent), to 10th (34.3 percent) to third (28.4 percent) in percentage of scoring drives allowed defensively.
- Minnesota allowed the fewest amount of fantasy passing points per attempt (.283) in 2017.
- Minnesota allowed the fewest yards from scrimmage (99.0) and fantasy points per game (17.7) to opposing backfields in 2017.
- Kyle Rudolph ran a pass route on 43.6 percent of his snaps in 2017 after 55.7 percent in 2016. After leading the position with 8.3 targets per game in 2016, Kyle Rudolph’s 5.1 targets per game ranked 15th at the position a year ago.
- The 49ers ranked second in yards per target (5.8) allowed to opposing to tight ends, trailing only the Vikings (5.0) in 2017.
Trust (spike starting production): Kirk Cousins (he begins the season as a home favorite against a defense that ranked 25th in passing points allowed per game and made only marginal personnel improvements on that side of the ball this offseason), Stefon Diggs (he was Cousins’ favorite target this preseason and moves around the formation the most of the Minnesota wideouts), Adam Thielen (he ran 71 percent of his routes from the slot this preseason after 51 percent in 2017, where he ranked fifth in the league in yards per route run a year ago for all wideouts with over 100 routes from the slot)
Bust (underperformance): Kyle Rudolph (a touchdown-or-bust option in this matchup, he avoids a suspended Rueben Foster in coverage, but the 49ers have a pair of strong coverage safeties in Jaquiski Tartt and Adrian Colbert), Jimmy Garoppolo (he trumped all his matchups a year ago, but Minnesota has allowed just four QB1 fantasy weeks at home in 32 games since Zimmer has been there and just five games higher than QB16), 49ers RBs (as a road dog against an elite defense, you can avoid the split of Alfred Morris and Matt Breida for a week unless you’re desperate and if you happen to be desperate, Breida would be the favorite given Morris’ lack of passing work and limited playbook knowledge), Marquise Goodwin (he’s only a play away from relvancy, but no team allowed fewer pass completions of 20+ yards a year ago than the Vikings and WR1s have been hands-off versus the Vikings as only two posted WR1 scoring weeks against them a year ago), Pierre Garcon (we’ve yet to see a rapport from him and Garoppolo and if the Vikings decide to play things straight up defensively, it will be Garcon who lines up across Xavier Rhodes the most often), George Kittle (as Minnesota stifled opposing tight ends a year ago, it’s hard to muster up initial excitement for this entire San Francisco offensive unit in this matchup on paper)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Dalvin Cook (despite being a home favorite against a team that was 25th in total yards per game allowed to backfields, all signs point towards the Vikings easing Cook into the swing of things with Latavius Murray fully healthy to start the season and they’re unlikely going to be in a spot to press that issue)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Latavius Murray (it’s doubtful you need to go this deep for a FLEX option, but his workload should be at its highest point to start the season in a game in which the Vikings could stack late-game rushing volume)
Titans @ Dolphins
| Tennessee | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 23.3 | Implied Total | 21.8 | ||
| 20.6 | 20 | Points/Gm | 17.6 | 28 |
| 22.9 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 24.6 | 29 |
| 61.1 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 22 |
| 65.5 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 7 |
| 44.6% | 8 | Rush% | 36.2% | 32 |
| 55.4% | 25 | Pass% | 63.8% | 1 |
| 37.4% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 43.6% | 21 |
| 62.6% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 56.4% | 12 |
- The Dolphins have covered in five consecutive season openers, the longest streak in the league.
- Miami scored +11.7 more points per game at home in 2017 than on the road, the largest gap in the league.
- The Dolphins’ four rushing touchdowns in 2017 were the fewest number of rushing touchdowns they’ve have had in a season over their 52 years as a franchise.
- Miami ranked 32nd in yards created for before contact (0.60 yards) for their running backs in 2017.
- Tennessee ranked second in the league in rushing points allowed per game (9.0) to opposing backfields in 2017 but ranked 32nd in receiving points allowed per game (14.1).
- Miami allowed a league-high 5.9 receptions per game to opposing tight ends in 2017 while ranking 31st in yardage per game (64.6 yards) to the position.
- The Dolphins faced just 15.8 targets per game to opposing wide receivers in 2017, the fewest in the league. Opposing teams targeted their wide receivers just 48.7 percent of the time versus Miami, the only team under 50 percent for the entire season.
- Over the final five weeks of 2017, opposing WR1s versus Miami caught 13-of-29 targets for 221 yards and zero touchdowns.
Trust (spike starting production): Delanie Walker (even coming off of a foot-injury scare, he finds himself in a desirable spot as Miami has an advantage on the perimeter, but is weakest on the interior)
Bust (underperformance): Corey Davis (the Dolphins developed into an avoid for lead receiver production as Xavien Howard elevated his game and they defend the slot well, but are exploitable to tight ends and running backs), Frank Gore (he played just two snaps in the preseason, so we don’t have a grasp on how much work he will see or be involved near the goal line, but the Titans allowed just five backs to hit 70-yards rushing in a game a year ago)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Dion Lewis/Derrick Henry (with Tennessee favored, the script will favor Henry in the end, but Miami is not daunting versus the run, nor do they defend the pass well to backs out of the backfield, leaving both as RB2 options with upside), Marcus Mariota (the matchup is good against a defense that ranked 21st in passing points allowed per game a year ago, but his wideouts aren’t fully healthy, leaving him to depend on big numbers from Walker and Lewis out of the backfield as an avenue to big totals), Kenny Stills (with DeVante Parker still sidelined, Stills is not only the lead wideout for the Dolphins, but the only one with any tangible in-game rapport established with Tannehill), Kenyan Drake (the Titans defended the run well a year ago and project to do so again, but can be exploited in the passing game, something that Drake shouldn’t be pressed for opportunities on by Gore), Ryan Tannehill ( a mid-QB2 option with upside against a secondary that ranked 27th in passing points per game allowed that will potentially be missing pass rushed Derrick Morgan and Harold Landry)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Danny Amendola (the preseason showed that he’s a part of this offense and Parker is still absent, freeing up more opportunity against a team that he posted a 11-112-0 line against in the playoffs a year ago, catching 6-of-6 targets for 74 yards in the coverage of Logan Ryan in that game)
Jaguars @ Giants
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | NY Giants | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 23.3 | Implied Total | 20.3 | ||
| 25.9 | 6 | Points/Gm | 15.4 | 31 |
| 17.7 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 24.2 | 28 |
| 66.8 | 4 | Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 10 |
| 63.5 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 29 |
| 49.5% | 1 | Rush% | 38.0% | 29 |
| 50.5% | 32 | Pass% | 62.0% | 4 |
| 41.3% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 44.1% | 22 |
| 58.7% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 55.9% | 11 |
- The Giants allowed 16.9 passing points per game in 2017 -the most in the league- while Jacksonville allowed 9.3 per game, the fewest.
- Jacksonville allowed just two QB1 performances all of 2017, the fewest in the league.
- Keelan Cole received 30.0 percent, 26.0 percent and 23.5 percent of the Jacksonville targets in the three games with Marqise Lee (who played just 11 snaps prior to injury Week 15) injured.
- The Jaguars allowed just 1.8 red zone possessions per game in 2017, the fewest in a season since the 2000 Ravens (1.6).
- No team allowed more fantasy points per target (1.99) to opposing tight ends in 2017 than the Giants.
Trust (spike starting production): Leonard Fournette (third in the league in touches per game a year ago at 23.4, he starts the year off healthy and as a favorite against a defense potentially missing a key front-seven piece in Olivier Vernon)
Bust (underperformance): Eli Manning (there will be weeks to stream Eli with Beckham back on the field, but this is not a week to chase), Odell Beckham (the only lead wideouts to post WR1 scoring weeks against the Jaguars a year ago were Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins and Beckham is easily in that tier of talent to set and forget, but if we’re circling weeks in which signs point to a dip in production, this one is in neon lights)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Saquon Barkley (the Jaguars don’t give up a lot of fantasy points, but when they do, running backs were scoring them as 41.4 percent of the skill points scored against Jacksonville were posted by backfields, the highest share in the league. Barkley may not run for a ton of yards, but he’ll be a floor-play with his receiving ability), Sterling Shepard (running 85.2 percent of his career routes from the slot, Shepard not only will avoid Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye for the bulk of the afternoon, but the Jaguars have downgraded their slot corner position transitioning to D.J. Hayden), Evan Engram (piggy-backing off Shepard, Engram should benefit from Beckham occupying the best of the Jacksonville defense), Keelan Cole (he was the Jacksonville wideout who moved around the formation the most a year ago and led the league in receiving yardage over the final five weeks of 2017)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Blake Bortles (he closed 2017 with five straight QB1 scoring weeks outside of Week 17 and threw for 8.4 Y/A against bottom-10 pass defenses a year ago), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (he has an inline to more opportunity with Marqise Lee sidelined and draws a matchup we’ll be targeting to being the year as 32.5 percent of the offensive touchdowns allowed by the Giants a year ago were to opposing tight ends, the highest rate in the league), Donte Moncrief/Dede Westbrook (we’re only interested in the ancillary Jaguar receiving options when Bortles is a green light, which is what we have here and both should see plenty of time on the outside when the Jaguars go 3WR)
Steelers @ Browns
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 24.8 | Implied Total | 21.3 | ||
| 26.4 | 5 | Points/Gm | 14.6 | 32 |
| 20.8 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 25.6 | 31 |
| 66.4 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 16 |
| 58.9 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 18 |
| 40.3% | 22 | Rush% | 38.1% | 28 |
| 59.7% | 11 | Pass% | 61.9% | 5 |
| 42.0% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 45.5% | 29 |
| 58.0% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 54.5% | 4 |
- The 2017 Browns were the first team to fail to win the turnover battle in any game over a 16-game season.
- The Browns have covered just 7-of-32 games (21.9 percent) under Hue Jackson. The rest of the league average over that span is covering 50.2 percent.
- Pittsburgh has hit their implied team total just twice over the past 10 years on the road in Cleveland.
- Over the past five seasons, the under has hit in 18-of-22 early road starts for the Steelers.
- Over that span, Ben Roethlisberger has been inside of the top-10 in fantasy scoring in just two of his past 21 road games with early start times and has thrown two or more touchdowns in just five of those games.
- Five of those starts have come in Cleveland, where he’s thrown five touchdowns to five interceptions and averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
- 31.6 percent of the rushing attempts against Cleveland failed to gain positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- Antonio Brown averages 8.6 receptions for 124.6 yards and 24.7 fantasy points per game over his past eight games versus the Browns.
- Brown has averaged 9.1 receptions for 130 yards and 27.2 fantasy points per game over 16 career games with Le’Veon Bell inactive since Bell joined the Steelers in 2013.
- Jarvis Landry has five or more receptions in 17 consecutive games played, the longest such streak since Brown went 36 games over 2013-2015.
- In 2017, the Steelers allowed 5.1 yards per carry and 51.6 percent success rate on rushing plays without Ryan Shazier in the lineup as opposed to 4.1 yards per carry and a 39.5 percent success rate on runs with him in the lineup.
Trust (spike starting production): Antonio Brown (the early road split bugaboos for his team and quarterback haven’t impacted his bottom lines and he’s especially lived to torment the Browns), James Conner (he’s locked in as an RB2 with upside as lead backs have averaged 20.5 touches per game over the 18 games that Bell has missed over his career), Carlos Hyde (preseason showed that there’s no immediate split in early-down opportunities while Hyde looked sensational and the Steelers still have concerns in how they’re going to replace Shazier after struggling to defend the run with him absent to close 2017)
Bust (underperformance): Ben Roethlisberger (he’s been a steady let down on the road in early starts over a large sample, leaving him in QB2-land to start the year), Josh Gordon (we know he’ll play in some capacity and is only a play away from relevancy, but he still has only practiced on limited availability and has unknown usage to start the year)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): JuJu Smith-Schuster (he’ll mainly operate out of the slot for half of his routes, but will also move around the formation most of the Steeler receivers and is a red zone presence), Tyrod Taylor (a safe floor option due to his rushing ability, he has reached 15 fantasy points in 30-of-43 starts over the past three seasons and now has the best offensive personnel he’s ever been attached to), Duke Johnson (steady RB3/FLEX option, but should be due for touchdown regression after scoring seven times a year ago after three times over his first two seasons), Jarvis Landry (for as much excitement we had with the potential increase of him working on the boundary more in Cleveland, he still ran 74 percent of his routes from the slot this preseason, leaving him still as a floor-play option firsthand until we see those perimeter opportunities open up), David Njoku (after playing just 47 of the team snaps a rookie, Njoku played 86 percent of the first-team snaps this preseason, establishing himself as a player with more immediate opportunity as the second-best weapon in Cleveland to start the season as Josh Gordon works his way back to a full allotment of snaps)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Jesse James (began 2017 as the TE1 in this matchup that we targeted weekly for opposing tight end play, James will get a boost with Vance McDonald still questionable to play after missing the entire preseason with a foot injury)
Chiefs @ Chargers
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 25.6 | 7 | Points/Gm | 22.2 | 13 |
| 21.2 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 17.0 | 1 |
| 61.1 | 28 | Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 15 |
| 65.2 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 10 |
| 40.6% | 21 | Rush% | 41.1% | 17 |
| 59.4% | 12 | Pass% | 58.9% | 16 |
| 42.8% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 43.1% | 17 |
| 57.2% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 56.9% | 16 |
- The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers in eight consecutive games, matching their longest win streak versus them in franchise history (1990-1993).
- The Chargers haven’t allowed more than two touchdown passes in 23 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the league.
- The Chiefs allowed 12.7 yards per completion in 2017, ranking ahead of only the Colts (12.9 yards).
- Opposing teams targeted their wide receivers 64.7 percent of the time versus the Chiefs in 2017, the highest rate in the league.
- Over his final seven games in 2017, Allen saw 30.7 percent of the team targets, posting 8.3 catches for 113.9 yards per game with five touchdowns, closing the season as the WR1 over those weeks.
- Kareem Hunt handled 86.6 percent of the carries from the Kansas City backfield in 2017, the highest individual rate in the league.
- Travis Kelce has failed to score a touchdown in eight career games versus the Chargers and has reached 50-yards receiving in just two of those games.
Trust (spike starting production): Keenan Allen (primed to roll over his end of season usage from a year ago, he draws a juicy matchup against a secondary that was exploitable regularly a year ago and only was weakened personnel-wise this offseason), Melvin Gordon (being a high-workload back as a home favorite is enough, but he has also averaged 20.1 fantasy points over his three meetings versus the Chiefs since his rookie season with a touchdown on all three), Kareem Hunt (the Charges were a natural run-funnel defense a year ago, ranking 23rd in rushing points allowed per game to backfields but third in passing points allowed per week, while Hunt offers a receiving boost to tack on while finishing as the RB5 and the RB2 when these teams played a year ago), Philip Rivers (the last time that he was a QB1 versus the Chiefs was Week 17, 2013, but as a home favorite in a matchup we’ll be targeting early in the season as a potential exploitable one, he’s easily on the QB1 radar)
Bust (underperformance): Antonio Gates (a touchdown-chasing option only as he’ll begin the season a package player), Travis Kelce (the target opportunity paired with talent always makes him a locked in starter at his position, but he’s found no success against the Chargers, finishing as a TE1 in just 2-of-8 career games with single-digit output in five of those games), Sammy Watkins (he showed no rapport with Mahomes to start things off this preseason and if the Chargers play things straight up defensively, Watkins will find Casey Hayward’s coverage the most of the Kansas City wideouts), Patrick Mahomes (the Chargers have a few key defensive players that were dinged up this preseason, but are a still a matchup to proceed with caution on after ranking third in passing points allowed per game and not allowing ceiling passing touchdown totals dating back to two years ago)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Tyreek Hill (was by far Mahomes’ favorite target this preseason and is used in a far more versatile fashion for target opportunity than that of Watkins, Hill also found success against the Chargers secondary a year ago, catching 10-of-14 targets for 165 yards and two touchdowns a year ago)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams (the Chiefs ranked 31st in yardage surrendered to opposing wide receiving units in 2017 with Marcus Peters on the roster, they are going to be a matchup we target for wide receiver play until they prove us otherwise. Of the L.A. Williams, Tyrell has more of a bettable target share, but Mike will be involved in some capacity in the red zone)
Cowboys @ Panthers
| Dallas | Rank | @ | Carolina | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 19.8 | Implied Total | 22.8 | ||
| 22.1 | 14 | Points/Gm | 22.9 | 11 |
| 20.8 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 21.1 | 13 |
| 62.8 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 12 |
| 62.5 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.4 | 2 |
| 47.8% | 3 | Rush% | 47.0% | 4 |
| 52.2% | 30 | Pass% | 53.0% | 29 |
| 40.3% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 37.2% | 2 |
| 59.7% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 62.8% | 31 |
- Christian McCaffrey played 89 percent of the first-team snaps this preseason. He played 69.9 percent of the team snaps as a rookie with only three games of reaching 80 percent of the team plays.
- Ezekiel Elliott ranked third for all running backs in routes run per game (26.9), but was targeted on just 14.1 percent of them, ahead of only Lamar Miller (13.4 percent) for all 45 backs to run at least 150 pass routes on the season.
- Since entering the league, Elliott has rushed for 100 yards in 48 percent of his games played, the highest rate in the league.
- Over that same span, the Panthers have allowed just two running backs to reach 100-yards rushing in a game, tied for the fewest in the league.
- 54.2 percent of the fantasy points scored by skill players against Carolina was from wide receivers, the highest share in the league.
- Cam Newton rushed for at least 50 yards in nine games in 2017, the second-most by a quarterback in a season behind Michael Vick‘s 11 games in 2006.
- Newton threw the second-most interceptions (11) in the second half a year ago while Dak Prescott ranked third (10).
Trust (spike starting production): Christian McCaffrey (already established with a high-floor due to his receiving ability, he jumps into the weekly RB1 bucket if his usage in the preseason is an indication that he will be a workhorse option while the Cowboys were 28th in receptions allowed per game to backfields a year ago), Cam Newton (he has a high floor due to his rushing ability and Dallas ranked 23rd a year ago in passing points allowed per game, the only potential issue here is pace as both of these teams force opponents to play slowly)
Bust (underperformance): Devin Funchess (his average weekly rank with either Olsen or Benjamin in the lineup was WR47 a year ago while the Cowboys ranked fourth in the league in yards per target allowed to opposing wide receivers), Dak Prescott (has a rushing floor himself to turn in a usable line, but comes along with more red flags attached as a road dog, unknown receiving unit and the way he closed 2017 for fantasy purposes. Over his final eight games of 2017, Prescott was the QB23 in overall scoring, throwing just six touchdowns to nine interceptions while averaging 188.3 passing yards per game and 6.5 yards per attempt)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Greg Olsen (he’s the favorite to lad the team in target opportunity outside of McCaffrey while Dallas ranked 22nd in receptions allowed per game to tight ends a year ago), Ezekiel Elliott (the volume will certainly be here, but we can’t count on a receiving spike until we see it in action while Carolina has been the best team at limiting ceiling rushing performances for two years running)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Michael Gallup (if there’s a Dallas receiver to sell yourself on, Gallup is the most appealing as he played all but six snaps with the first-team offense this preseason and will line up the most often against fellow rookie corner Donte Jackson)
Washington @ Cardinals
| Washington | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spread | 0 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 21.4 | 16 | Points/Gm | 18.4 | 24 |
| 24.2 | 27 | Points All./Gm | 22.6 | 18 |
| 61.4 | 26 | Plays/Gm | 66.2 | 7 |
| 65.3 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 13 |
| 40.8% | 18 | Rush% | 38.7% | 25 |
| 59.2% | 15 | Pass% | 61.3% | 8 |
| 45.2% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 40.4% | 9 |
| 54.8% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 59.6% | 24 |
- Washington has failed to cover in five consecutive season openers, the longest streak in the league.
- Alex Smith averaged 9.6 yards per attempt against the blitz last season, highest rate in the league.
- Steve Wilk’s Carolina defense a year ago blitzed on 42.7 percent of dropbacks a year ago per Football Outsiders, the highest rate in the league.
- 84 percent of the rushing attempts versus Washington gained positive yardage a year ago, the highest rate in the league.
- Ricky Seals-Jones led all tight ends in yards per catch (16.8) and target rate per route run (41.2 percent) in 2017.
- Seals-Jones played 87 percent of the snaps with Sam Bradford in the game this preseason.
- Washington ranked 28th in targets faced (7.9), 26th in receptions (5.0) and 29th in receiving yardage (61.4) per game to opposing tight ends in 2017.
Trust (spike starting production): David Johnson (the do-it-all option for this offense at home against a defense that ranked 26th in yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backfields), Larry Fitzgerald (he’s going to lead this team in targets and gets a favorable draw against second-year corner Fabian Moreau who is taking over the slot for Kendall Fuller)
Bust (underperformance): Adrian Peterson (a road dog without receiving appeal against a defense that was second in yards per carry allowed and third in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing backfields a year ago)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Sam Bradford (a proxy of having interest in his primary targets, he’s on the table as an option in 2QB leagues to start the season), Alex Smith (he will surely have some regression in play this season compared to a year ago, but is a stable-floor QB2 that can use his legs), Jamison Crowder (he’s still the most trustworthy option of the Washington pass catchers, Crowder will work against second-year safety Budda Baker in the slot), Jordan Reed (as healthy as he’s been in over a year, he’ll start off against a defense that faced tight end targets at the eighth-highest rate in 2017), Chris Thompson (admittedly not 100 percent, his initial is a concern, but he maintains FLEX status against a defense that defends the run well and may blitz at a high rate), Paul Richardson/Josh Doctson (both will have chances to make plays outside of his clutches against Jamar Taylor, who allowed the fourth-highest rating when targeted a year ago, but it’s hard to elevate either over FLEX options given each will also run a third of their snaps in the direction of Patrick Peterson)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Ricky Seals-Jones (his role is expected to jump to full-time player in his sophomore season and he gets a matchup that was on our short list to target when looking for plug and play tight end options)
Seahawks @ Broncos
| Seattle | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 19.8 | Implied Total | 22.8 | ||
| 22.9 | 12 | Points/Gm | 18.1 | 26 |
| 20.8 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 23.9 | 24 |
| 62.9 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 67.2 | 2 |
| 65.3 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.5 | 3 |
| 40.6% | 20 | Rush% | 42.5% | 16 |
| 59.4% | 13 | Pass% | 57.5% | 17 |
| 43.3% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 45.0% | 26 |
| 56.8% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 55.0% | 7 |
- 89.5 percent (34-of-38) of Seattle’s offensive touchdowns in 2017 were via the passing game, the highest rate of passing touchdowns over the past 10 years.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Russell Wilson had no pressure on just 58.6 percent of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the NFL for all 29 passers to play half of their team snaps in 2017.
- The Broncos allowed the most touchdown passes (nine) on throws 20 or more yards downfield last year.
- Wilson was tied for the league-lead with 12 passing touchdowns on throws 20 or more yards downfield.
- Denver was third in the league in passing yards allowed per game to quarterbacks (211.6) but allowed a league-high 9.9 percent of completions for touchdowns.
- Just 16.8 percent of the rushing attempts against Denver resulted in a first down a year ago, the lowest rate in the league. League average was 22.2 percent.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Emmanuel Sanders ran 63.9 percent (23-of-36) of his routes from the slot this preseason. He ran just 27.4 percent of his routes from the slot over his previous four seasons with the Broncos.
Trust (spike starting production): Emmanuel Sanders (he’s in line for a target spike given Keenum’s affection for the slot receiver and while Justin Coleman was a solid contributor Seattle defending the slot a year ago, he has just eight career starts and isn’t someone that is pushing us off a target)
Bust (underperformance): Chris Carson (Seattle is due for progression in the rushing touchdown department, but their running game should be outmatched heavily here on the road against a defense that was third in the league in yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backs), Doug Baldwin (admittedly not 100 percent with a date against Chris Harris leaves him in WR3 territory), Tyler Lockett (will have opportunities against both Bradley Roby and Tramaine Brock, but he also plays a lot on the inside where Harris resides, which could be enhanced if Baldwin is only a limited participant)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Russell Wilson (Denver gave up a fluky amount of passing touchdowns compared to their peripheral performance versus the pass, but Wilson has his creativity and legs as trump cards for low-yardage while Seattle should be one-dimensional), Demaryius Thomas (not to be forgotten amongst the late-summer push for Sanders, Thomas will still be heavily targeted option), Royce Freeman (his role in the passing game is yet to be determined, which may keep his ceiling dependent on finding the end zone, but set up in an early down role as a home favorite against a defense that was 22nd in rushing points allowed per game is an advantageous spot for what he’s best suited for), Case Keenum (this isn’t the same Seattle pass defense that we’ve gone out of our way to avoid in the past without Earl Thomas and a prime Richard Sherman, but this is the second-lowest over/under of the week, leaving marginal excitement for a ceiling game to get Keenum above lower-QB2 status)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Brandon Marshall (no one wants to use him, including myself, but he is going to have an opportunity to make some plays while Baldwin and Lockett find subpar matchups on their interior opportunities), Nick Vannett (tight end streaming options are loaded to open the season, but it’s possible Vannett is the Seattle receiving target that has the most success here against the defense that allowed 23.9 percent of the fantasy scoring against them to come from the tight end position, the highest share in the league)
Bears @ Packers
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 20.0 | Implied Total | 27.5 | ||
| 16.5 | 29 | Points/Gm | 20.0 | 21 |
| 20.0 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 24.0 | 26 |
| 58.4 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 20 |
| 62.7 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 15 |
| 45.2% | 7 | Rush% | 38.6% | 26 |
| 54.8% | 26 | Pass% | 61.4% | 7 |
| 43.1% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 45.8% | 30 |
| 56.9% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 54.2% | 3 |
- Green Bay averaged 26.8 points and 344.5 total yards per game in the six full games Aaron Rodgers played as opposed to 15.9 points and 282.4 yards per game otherwise.
- Jimmy Graham‘s seven touchdown receptions from inside of the 5-yard line last season were the most in a year by a tight end since Bubba Franks in 2001.
- Graham led the NFL with 24 red zone targets a year ago. Davante Adams was second with 22.
- Randall Cobb received 23.3 percent of the Green Bay targets in his five full games played with Aaron Rodgers a year ago as opposed to 14.4 percent of the team targets in his other 10 games played.
- Tarik Cohen was targeted on 33.5 percent of his routes, the highest rate for all running backs.
- Jordan Howard has averaged 6.5 yards per carry (128 carries for 831 yards) out of the shotgun to start his career.
- In 2017, Matt Nagy‘s Chiefs ran 27 percent of the time out of shotgun, which ranked fifth in the league.
- In 2017, Mitchell Trubisky threw just two touchdowns on 259 passes (.08 percent) out of the shotgun, the lowest rate for all quarterbacks.
Trust (spike starting production): Aaron Rodgers (he has a lot of moving parts this season and even prior to the Bears’ additions defensively, they ranked seventh in passing yardage allowed and ninth in passing points surrendered per game a year ago, but Rodgers always carries multiple touchdown upside a home favorite with a high team total even if he doesn’t hammer out massive passing yardage), Davante Adams (enters the season as unquestioned lead passing game option for the first time while he’s scored in three of his past four games against the Bears)
Bust (underperformance): Mitchell Trubisky (he has rushing ability to get himself to a floor but being attached to a low team total while being a large, road underdog is a red flag), Jordan Howard (rumored to have a three-down role, we’ll find out right away as a big road dog if Matt Nagy is true to his word and what his system can bring to the table for improving Howard’s output in potential off-script games. He’s only been a top-20 back in three of four games against the Packers and in nine career games in which Chicago has been getting +7 or more points, Howard has finished as a top-20 back just three times while averaging just 68.8 total yards per game), Anthony Miller (Miller may find himself fourth or lower in the immediate pecking order on a team not projected to have a ton of tangible output)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Randall Cobb (despite the offseason chatter about him being on the outs with the franchise, he enters the season as a cheap attachment to Rodgers and was effective with Rodgers in the lineup a year ago for fantasy. To tack on, he also draws the best individual matchup on paper on the inside versus Bryce Callahan), Jimmy Graham (when you’re the “goal line back” of tight ends, it helps to be attached to a high-volume passer near the end zone), Jamaal Williams (he starts the season off as the starter and a large, home favorite while Mike McCarthy has shown he’d prefer to play one back rather a pure timeshare. In games in which the Packers had two or all three backs available a year ago, the lead Green Bay running back averaged 74 percent of the snaps and 17.2 touches per week), Allen Robinson (he has just 11 snaps of in-game work with Trubisky which leaves a lot of room for variance in his first ever action, but he’ll draw a combination of second-year corner Kevin King – who struggled as a rookie- and 35-year old Tramon Williams on the perimeter), Trey Burton (he quickly was a focal point of this first-team offense this summer and could lead the team targets immediately as Robinson builds up rapport with Trubisky), Tarik Cohen (the most targeted back per passing opportunity, the blind bet on game script points to him having a large opportunity in the passing game)
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play): Geronimo Allison (Allison has played five games without Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson active and has averaged 12.3 PPR points per game in those weeks. The addition of Graham thwarts a major ceiling, but he’s in play as a WR4/FLEX)
Jets @ Lions
| NY Jets | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 19.3 | Implied Total | 25.8 | ||
| 18.6 | 23 | Points/Gm | 25.6 | 8 |
| 23.9 | 23 | Points All./Gm | 23.5 | 21 |
| 61.5 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 61.2 | 27 |
| 65.8 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 22 |
| 43.4% | 15 | Rush% | 37.0% | 31 |
| 56.6% | 18 | Pass% | 63.0% | 2 |
| 44.3% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 41.7% | 12 |
| 55.7% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 58.3% | 21 |
- Sam Darnold is the youngest (21 years and 95 days) quarterback to ever start a Week 1 game.
- Four other rookie quarterbacks have started Week 1 at age 21. Those passers combined to complete 65-of-115 passes for an average of 211.5 passing yards and a combined seven touchdowns with six interceptions in those starts.
- The Lions have gone 68 consecutive games without a 100-yard rusher, the longest streak since the Cleveland Browns (69 games 1988-1993) and five game behind the record of 72 straight games by Washington (1961-1967).
- Over that span, there have been 10 times in which a quarterback has rushed for 100-yards in a game.
- Matthew Stafford is the only quarterback to throw for multiple touchdown passes in Week 1 in each of the past five seasons.
- The Jets allowed multiple touchdown passes in 10 games in 2017, tied for the third-most in the league and in 6-of-8 road games, tied for the most.
- Since joining the Lions 2014, Golden Tate is the only wide receiver to rank in the top-5 in yards created after the catch in each of the past four seasons.
- Marvin Jones received 25 percent of the Detroit passing targets in five games without Kenny Golladay active a year ago as opposed to 15.5 percent of the team targets in the 11 games in which Golladay was active.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Darius Slay was targeted 106 times a year ago, the third most in the league, but allowed just a 55.6 rating on those throws, which ranked sixth-best among all cornerbacks.
Trust (spike starting production): Matthew Stafford (he’s averaged +4.2 points per game as a home favorite over his career and that number is +5.1 points since Jim Bob Cooter has been calling plays in Detroit), Golden Tate (the Detroit wideouts are going to trade off weeks of relevancy, but where the Jets are most vulnerable is on the interior where Tate will avoid Morris Claiborne and Trumaine Johnson for the comfy coverage of Buster Skrine)
Bust (underperformance): Sam Darnold (starting his first ever game on the road as the youngest Week 1 starter in league history, we should keep expectations minimal), Robby Anderson (he’s only a splash play away from making his mark, but his passing splits a year ago were not only tethered to Josh McCown starting and will run into Slay on roughly over half of his routes), Isaiah Crowell (his rushing role is compromised to start the season by Powell while not having an inline to receiving work attached to a road dog), DET RBs (it’s a good spot as a home favorite against a rookie quarterback, but we have no true clue how the touches are going to be dispersed here. The safest plays appear to be LeGarrette Blount if chasing a touchdown and Theo Riddick if looking for a floor PPR play, but Ameer Abdullah and Kerryon Johnson will surely also get touches as this situation sorts itself out), Quincy Enunwa (he played more on the boundary than the slot in the preseason and expected Darnold to float any starting-caliber receiving options is more wishful thinking than bankable)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Bilal Powell (already running ahead of Crowell to end the preseason, he gets the added benefit on being the primary pass-catcher attached to an underdog), Marvin Jones/Kenny Golladay (the split between these two is something to monitor as Jones’ best moments came with Golladay absent a year ago, but in a game in where we have faith in Stafford backing good numbers, they all can’t come from Tate himself while there’s still no tight end presence here for teams to be concerned with)
Rams @ Raiders
| LA Rams | Rank | @ | Oakland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | Spread | 4 | ||
| 26.8 | Implied Total | 22.8 | ||
| 28.9 | 3 | Points/Gm | 18.8 | 22 |
| 20.9 | 12 | Points All./Gm | 23.3 | 20 |
| 62.6 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 59.5 | 30 |
| 64.3 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 8 |
| 44.2% | 10 | Rush% | 38.9% | 24 |
| 55.8% | 23 | Pass% | 61.1% | 9 |
| 41.8% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 43.6% | 20 |
| 58.2% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 56.4% | 13 |
- The Rams scored +8.3 more points per game on the road last season than at home, the largest split in the league.
- Four of Jared Goff‘s six QB1 scoring weeks in 2017 came against teams that were 25th or lower in passing points allowed to the league last year entering the matchup.
- The Raiders ranked 26th in passing points allowed per game (15.5) in 2017.
- The Rams ran the ball with three or more wide receivers on the field the most in the league last season (332 times and 71.4 percent of their total team rushing attempts).
- The Rams totaled 69 red zone possessions in 2017, their most in a season since 2003.
- Todd Gurley led the league with 14 rushing attempts from two-yards or closer after accruing 12 such attempts over his first two seasons.
- The Rams led for 55.9 percent of their offensive snaps in 2017, the highest rate in the league.
- Oakland ran just 5.3 red zone plays per game a year ago, the fewest in the league and their lowest as a franchise since 2009 (4.9).
- Per Pro Football Focus, in four career games versus Aqib Talib, Amari Cooper has caught 1-of-6 targets for eight yards and no touchdowns in Talib’s coverage.
- Per Pro Football Focus, in five career games versus Marcus Peters, Cooper has caught 6-of-12 targets for 77 yards and no touchdowns in Peters’ coverage.
Trust (spike starting production): Todd Gurley (should roll right out of the gates as a favorite against a defense that is starting five new players in their front-seven from a year ago), Jared Goff (he and the Rams lit up soft defenses a year ago while playing on the road and the Oakland defense projects to be one the main targets to start the season)
Bust (underperformance): Amari Cooper (we’ll get to see right away how Jon Gruden’s offense maximizes Cooper’s versatility because he’ll need to be creative in moving him away from the strong perimeter corners for the Rams and even in that case, Nickell Robey-Coleman isn’t much of a consolation prize), Jordy Nelson (ditto for Nelson, who doesn’t carry nearly as much upside as Cooper), Derek Carr (he’s been an extremely matchup-driven option for fantasy over his career, averaging 5.9 yards per pass attempt in 25 career games against top-10 pass defenses while the Rams already ranked eighth in passing points allowed per attempt a year ago before their additions defensively), Marshawn Lynch (the Raiders have a capable offensive line in combating the interior of the Los Angeles defense, but potential unfavorable game script is likely to push Lynch to FLEX status since he offers marginal receiving upside)
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Brandin Cooks/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp (someone here is surely going to disappoint big picture, but all are starting-caliber options in a game where we expect Goff to have a ceiling performance and all three receiving options have positive individual matchups wherever they line up with Kupp having the most advantegous one inside against aging corners Leon Hall and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), Jared Cook (was seventh in receiving yardage per game among tight ends a year ago and the Rams project to be a team that funnels a lot of defending targets to the tight end and running back positions given their strengths and weakness as a coverage unit)
