We’re really winding down on the fantasy regular season, so hopefully your roster is getting tuned up with final preparations for an upcoming playoff run. Week 9 was thankfully light on significant injuries and this week we get many explosive fantasy options back on the board that were on bye a week ago. This week, we’re down to four teams on bye this week, but they all are also littered with players that we’ve been counting on in lineups. Make sure that all Oakland, Baltimore, Kansas City and Philadelphia players are out of your lineups early in the week. If your playoff hopes have all but been dashed, don’t worry, there’s still DFS for another eight full weeks.
As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.
Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 10 games with a PPR light…
Seahawks @ Cardinals
| Seattle | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | Spread | 6 | ||
| 23.8 | Implied Total | 17.8 | ||
| 23.6 | 10 | Points/Gm | 17.4 | 26 |
| 18.6 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 25.1 | 27 |
| 67.1 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 10 |
| 62.9 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.8 | 30 |
| 40.0% | 22 | Rush% | 36.2% | 27 |
| 60.0% | 11 | Pass% | 63.8% | 6 |
| 40.4% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 40.4% | 11 |
| 59.6% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 59.6% | 22 |
- Adrian Peterson has a rushing attempt on 57 percent of his snaps, the highest rate in the league.
- Since joining the Cardinals, 69 of Peterson’s touches have come with the game tied or Arizona leading the game (57.9 percent of the team touches). When trailing he’s had eight touches (40 percent of the team total).
- After allowing 456 rushing yards on 89 carries (5.1 yards per carry) to opposing backfields over their first four games, Seattle has allowed 219 rushing yards on 76 attempts (2.9 YPC) since.
- Opponents have run just 7.7 percent of their offensive plays from inside of the red zone versus Seattle this season, the lowest rate in the league.
- Doug Baldwin ranks fourth in the league with 72.7 points from the slot this season.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Patrick Peterson has defended the slot for a total of 22-of-390 snaps versus the Seahawks over the past three seasons.
- In those six games, Baldwin has 40 receptions for 539 yards and two touchdowns with at least 13 points in four of those games.
Trust: Russell Wilson (you often have to wait until the second half to get the points flowing, but he’s scored 20 or more points in five of his past six games and has averaged 17.5 points over his past five Thursday Night games), Doug Baldwin (he should avoid Peterson for the majority of the night and has double-digit targets in all three games since the bye), Jimmy Graham (he’s dealing with an ankle issue, but has been a top-10 scoring tight end in six straight games with double-digit points in each of those games while Arizona has allowed a top-6 scoring week to every starting caliber tight end they’ve faced)
Bust: Adrian Peterson (his fantasy viability has tethered to game script, which we can’t count on being favorable here while Seattle has shored up their early season run struggles), John Brown (he hasn’t more than three catches in a game since Week 1 and has just two over his past two games playing primarily with Stanton), Drew Stanton (he game-managed his way to a QB19 scoring week against the 49ers, a far better matchup, even with Seattle dinged up a bit defensively), Larry Fitzgerald (he’s only a flex play as he’s been a WR2 or better in three of eight games and now carries a WR3 ceiling with Stanton), SEA RBs (Thomas Rawls looks like he’s at the front of the carousel this week, but Wilson has led the team in rushing in each of the past two games while Arizona is ninth in yardage allowed to opposing backfields), Paul Richardson (he’s always a threat to score while Wilson is playing so well, but even if the Cardinals choose to play things straight up defensively, he’ll draw Peterson in coverage the most and has had more than three catches in a game just twice), Tyler Lockett (he’s nursing a shoulder injury and has been far to unreliable, topping 30-yards receiving in just three of eight games)
Editor’s Note: DFS pro Andy Means, shares four players you should build around in Week 10. Find the plays here!
Jets @ Buccaneers
| NY Jets | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spread | 0 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 21.2 | 18 | Points/Gm | 19.8 | 21 |
| 23.0 | 18 | Points All./Gm | 24.8 | 26 |
| 59.3 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 20 |
| 66.0 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 26 |
| 43.6% | 14 | Rush% | 35.5% | 30 |
| 56.4% | 19 | Pass% | 64.5% | 3 |
| 43.8% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 44.9% | 26 |
| 56.2% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 55.2% | 7 |
- The Buccaneers have trailed by multiple possessions for 43.4 percent of their offensive snaps, second to only San Francisco (45.7 percent).
- Tampa Bay is allowing 80.3 fantasy points per game to opposing skill players, 31st in the league.
- Tampa Bay is allowing opposing passers to complete 50 percent of their passes 15 yards or further downfield, 31st in the league.
- Josh McCown has completed 54.1 percent (20-of-37) of his throws 15 yards or further downfield (second in the league) and has thrown a league-high nine touchdown passes on those passes.
- Over the past four weeks, Robby Anderson is the WR6 in overall scoring, ranking 14th in targets (28), T-10th in receptions (17), eighth in receiving yards (263) and tied for the most touchdowns (three).
- The Jets are allowing 2.8 offensive touchdowns per game, tied for the most in the league.
- The Buccaneers have scored on just 3-of-23 possessions the past two weeks with just one touchdown, the lowest totals in the league.
- Just 23.1 percent of the yardage gained by the Buccaneers has been on the ground, 31st in the league.
- Doug Martin played just 18 snaps in Week 9 (31 percent of the team total), his lowest total and rate for the season.
Trust: Josh McCown (he’s had at least 15 points in five of his past seven games while the Bucs are 30th in passing points per game allowed), Robby Anderson (he has double-digit points in four straight games while Tampa Bay has allowed the most points per game to opposing wide receivers), Bilal Powell (he’s been a top-10 scorer in four of the six games he’s played with Forte out or playing fewer 20 percent of the snaps while Tampa Bay is 24th in yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backfields)
Bust: Doug Martin (the Jets run defense has been hit or miss over the past month and Tampa should go back to giving him touches given their losses on offense this week, but even with touches, he’s been an RB3 or lower in each of his past three games), O.J. Howard (two or fewer receptions in every game except for one), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (you can chase a touchdown with McCown in a good spot, but he’s yet to clear 50-yards in a game with fewer than 30-yards in three straight while Tampa Bay is allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to tight ends), Jermaine Kearse (similar to ASJ, you can chase the spot elevating him into the WR3 mix, but if Kearse doesn’t score, he hasn’t been useful, averaging a WR52 finish in his six games without a score), Chris Godwin (he’s a deep-league dart, but I prefer Humphries and Brate to soak up the vacated opportunity left by Evans), Elijah McGuire (he’s in a deep bucket of RB3/flex options, but has not been involved as a pass catcher and has been ineffective with his opportunities over the past five weeks, rushign 38 times for 81 yards)
Reasonable Return: DeSean Jackson (he gets a bump with Mike Evans suspended while Morris Claiborne is still dealing with a foot injury), Cameron Brate (he also gets a slight target increase while the Jets have allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the season) , Ryan Fitzpatrick (the team total isn’t flattering, but he has to be in the streaming mix with the Jets allowing 20.6 points per game to quarterbacks over their past five games), Adam Humphries (with Evans out and leaving a lot of targets on the table, Humphries slides into a floor-play option this week for teams in need of help with depleted waivers)
Editor’s Note: FanDuel is hosting the Rotoworld Beat the Writers Series, where you can play against five Rotoworld football writers for your chance at cash prizes and free entry into their Sunday Million. Put your knowledge to the test!
Saints @ Bills
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | Spread | 2 | ||
| 24.0 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 27.6 | 6 | Points/Gm | 21.8 | 16 |
| 19.4 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 18.6 | 6 |
| 63.9 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 64.0 | 16 |
| 61.1 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 23 |
| 44.6% | 12 | Rush% | 48.8% | 4 |
| 55.4% | 21 | Pass% | 51.2% | 29 |
| 40.3% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 39.0% | 6 |
| 59.7% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 61.0% | 27 |
- Buffalo allowed 194 rushing yards last week after allowing 188 yards rushing over their previous three games combined.
- The Saints have rushed for over 100 yards in four straight games for the first time since 2014.
- Alvin Kamara leads all backs with 50 or more carries in rushing points per attempt (.94) and in percent of runs (46.2 percent) that have resulted in a first down.
- Kamara is being targeted on 32.3 percent of his routes, the highest rate for all running backs with 100 or more snaps in route per Pro Football Focus.
- Mark Ingram played 60 percent of the team snaps last week, his highest rate in a game since Week 6.
- Drew Brees has thrown for 300-yards in just two of eight games, averaging 276.8 yards passing per game. The last time that he averaged fewer than 300-yards passing per game was 2010.
- Buffalo averages 151 yards rushing per game at home as opposed to 82.8 yards rushing per game on the road, the largest gap in the league.
- LeSean McCoy leads all running backs in points scored at home this season (93.7), where he averages 130.8 yards from scrimmage per game compared to 66.3 per game on the road.
- New Orleans has allowed 174.3 passing yards per game over their past six games, the lowest amount in the league over that span.
Trust: Alvin Kamara (he’s arguably the hottest combo-back going, with 12 or more points in six straight games and three straight RB1 weeks), Mark Ingram (he still had 17 touches and got the bulk of the playing time, but just failed to score for the first time over the past month and only had one reception, both of which have probability of rebounding), LeSean McCoy (just a bizarre game for McCoy last week as the run game was scripted out early on and then he wasn’t involved in the passing game for the first time all season. I’d expect both to correct themselves this week against a Saints team that is 20th in yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backs and 27th in receptions allowed to the position)
Bust: Kelvin Benjamin (he still has to get acclimated to his new surroundings and in his first game in Buffalo he’ll draw Marshon Lattimore, who just flatlined Mike Evans a week ago), Other Bills’ WRs (the group was already hit or miss weekly and the only other Buffalo WR that has steady volume before the addition of Benjamin has been Zay Jones)
Reasonable Return: Drew Brees (he’s still been just as surgical as ever throwing the ball, but has lived in the lower-end of the QB1 pool with the Saints playing sound defense and running the ball so well and although the Bills have given up some yardage to quarterbacks, they’ve limited touchdowns), Michael Thomas (he has seven of more receptions in five of his past six games, but still has yet to hit 90-yards in a game), Ted Ginn (he’s had more than four receptions just once, but has found stability with 59 or more yards in each of the past four weeks on his way to four straight WR3 or better games), Tyrod Taylor (he’s been better at home this year, averaging 18.3 points per game in Buffalo, while finishing as a QB1 in three straight games. The Saints have been limiting passing output, but Taylor is never a guy we’re playing while banking on high passing production to begin with), Charles Clay (we’re always hesitant to expect ceiling weeks from players returning from multi-week layoffs, but Clay plays a position with limited options --especially with Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz on bye-- which has him on the table to usable option)
Browns @ Lions
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | Spread | -13.5 | ||
| 15.3 | Implied Total | 28.8 | ||
| 14.9 | 31 | Points/Gm | 25.8 | 8 |
| 25.2 | 28 | Points All./Gm | 23.2 | 20 |
| 64.6 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 65.9 | 7 |
| 63.5 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.2 | 7 |
| 36.2% | 28 | Rush% | 37.6% | 25 |
| 63.8% | 5 | Pass% | 62.4% | 8 |
| 45.7% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 40.2% | 8 |
| 54.3% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 59.8% | 25 |
- Cleveland is last in the league in points per play (.230).
- The Browns have trailed for 96.1 percent of their second half snaps. The next closest team (Miami) is at 79.2 percent.
- Per Pro Football Focus, DeShone Kizer has completed 29.7 percent of his passes under pressure this season, the lowest rate in the league.
- 26.3 percent of the yardage allowed by Detroit is from rushing (second) while just 26.9 percent of the yardage gained against the Browns has been rushing, the third lowest rate in the league.
- Opponents have converted 73.9 percent of their red zone possessions into touchdowns versus Cleveland, the highest rate in the league.
- Marvin Jones has received 26.8 percent of the Detroit targets over the past four games after getting 13.6 percent over the opening four games of the season.
- Jones’ 44 targets over the span rank third for all wide receivers as he has been the WR27, WR4, WR10 and WR2 in those games.
- Matthew Stafford has thrown for 300-yards in three straight games in a season for the first time since 2011.
Trust: Matthew Stafford (after a slow start to the year, he’s posted three QB1 weeks in a row while the Browns are 29th in passing points allowed per game), Golden Tate (even with Jones surging, Tate has been a reliable as ever, with seven receptions in three straight games and will not draw Jason McCourty on the interior)
Bust: Eric Ebron (Cleveland is a weekly target for tight end production, allowing the most receptions per game and facing the most targets per game to the position, but Ebron still requires a step of faith and remains more of a DFS dart as he’s had double-digit points just once and has shared opportunities with Darren Fells, who is running nearly the same amount of routes per game), DeShone Kizer (on the positive end of things, he made it through the complete game in his last start), David Njoku (hopefully Cleveland will realize they need to play him coming out of their bye, but you can’t count on a player with more than two receptions in just one game on the season), CLE WRs (the entire group hasn’t produced a top-40 scorer since Week 5)
Reasonable Return: Marvin Jones (Jones’ early season start can be attributed to a litany of poor individual matchups and he’ll have another tough one on paper here versus McCourty on the perimeter, but he’s been too hot and has the highest touchdown odds of the Detroit receivers), Ameer Abdullah (this is not a great matchup as Cleveland has defended the run well, but the script here should be enough to give him flex potential at minimum), Theo Riddick (he’s gotten back into the flex mix during the bye season, finishing as a top-26 scorer in three of his past four games, but carries almost no ceiling), Isaiah Crowell (you know he’s inevitably going to get scripted out, but he’s still maintained flex status weekly with four straight top-30 weeks), Duke Johnson (his ceiling has expectedly dropped without his run of touchdowns, but remains in the flex mix)
Bengals @ Titans
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Tennessee | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spread | -5 | ||
| 17.8 | Implied Total | 22.8 | ||
| 16.1 | 28 | Points/Gm | 22.6 | 12 |
| 19.8 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 24.1 | 23 |
| 56.0 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 60.0 | 27 |
| 66.5 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.6 | 29 |
| 42.0% | 16 | Rush% | 45.4% | 10 |
| 58.0% | 17 | Pass% | 54.6% | 23 |
| 46.2% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 40.5% | 12 |
| 53.8% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 59.5% | 21 |
- The Titans have scored on 53.5 percent (23-of-43) of their possessions at home this season, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bengals have allowed opponents to score on 55.2 percent (16-of-29) of their drives since their Week 6 bye (31st) after allowing a score on 28.3 percent (17-of-60) of drives prior (third).
- Over that span, the Bengals have allowed 138.3 rushing yards per game, 27th in the league.
- Delanie Walker is the only tight end in the top-20 scorers at his position without a touchdown reception on the season.
- Returning to action for the first time since Week 2, Corey Davis led the Titans in routes run (26) in Week 9 per Pro Football Focus. Rishard Matthews ran 25 routes while Eric Decker ran 17.
- The Bengals ran 37 offensive plays in Week 9, the fewest they’ve ever had in a game in franchise history.
- The 72.2 rushing yards per game by the Bengals rank last in the league.
Trust: A.J. Green (a strong “get right” spot for Green against a secondary that has allowed six WR1 weeks and 15 or more points to seven different wideouts)
Bust: DeMarco Murray (you can use him against a defense that is reeling and giving up rushing production, but you need to have flex expectations as he’s playing through knee, shoulder and hamstring injuries and has been an RB2 or better just twice), TEN WRs (you can use Rishard Matthews for his scoring upside, but the distribution here among the group is still spread thinly while the Bengals are allowing the fewest receptions and fourth-fewest yardage to opposing receivers)
Reasonable Return: Derrick Henry (his weekly usage is dependent on how Murray is playing through injury and game script, but his expectations are also much lower than Murray’s are week to week as he’s a boom or bust flex option against a defense facing 33.9 touches per game to backfields, 31st in the league) , Marcus Mariota (he still hasn’t been a QB1 since Week 1, but the Bengals have allowed 16 or more points to all three of the quarterbacks they’ve faced since their bye), Delanie Walker (he had his highest scoring week since Week 2 last week playing through injury and although the Bengals have limited opposing tight ends, a lot of that has been schedule driven as the only top-12 scorer they’ve faced on the season has been Jack Doyle, who posted a 12/121/1 line), Andy Dalton (Dalton’s usable weeks have been fairly easy to pinpoint so far on the season and this one lines up as a week in which you can use him as a floor option at worst against a Tennessee defense that is 26th in passing touchdowns allowed per game), Joe Mixon (the Bengals offense and offensive line just hasn’t given him much room for a ceiling, but he’s been a steady RB2), Tyler Kroft (he’s been a TE1 in four of his past five games while the Titans are 23rd in receptions allowed per game to tight ends)
Packers @ Bears
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spread | -5 | ||
| 16.5 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 22.6 | 11 | Points/Gm | 16.8 | 27 |
| 23.9 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 21.4 | 13 |
| 61.4 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 60.5 | 25 |
| 64.2 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 12 |
| 35.4% | 31 | Rush% | 50.2% | 2 |
| 64.6% | 2 | Pass% | 49.8% | 31 |
| 46.9% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 43.0% | 20 |
| 53.1% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 57.0% | 13 |
- Chicago generates 56.9 fantasy points per game for offensive skill players, the fewest in the league.
- Since Mitchell Trubisky took over as starting quarterback, Chicago has run the ball 60.5 percent of their offensive plays, the highest rate in the league.
- Over that span, Chicago has reached the red zone four times, the fewest in the league.
- Jordan Howard‘s 1,975 rushing yards are the most ever by a Chicago running back through 23 games of their career.
- Green Bay faces 32.5 touches per game to opposing backfields, the third-most in the NFL.
- The Packers have scored a touchdown on 5-of-29 (17.2 percent) possessions with Brett Hundley under center as opposed to 34 percent (17-of-50) with Aaron Rodgers.
- Hundley’s .160 passing points per attempt ranks last for all quarterbacks.
- The Bears are allowing a touchdown pass once every 32.8 pass attempts, fourth in the league.
- Jordy Nelson‘s fantasy weeks with Hundley have been WR28, WR90 and WR43. Davante Adams has been WR12, WR79 and WR27.
Trust: Jordan Howard (the Bears continue to feed him touches for as long as they can remain in games and this week he’s a rare home favorite)
Bust: Mitchell Trubisky (this is a dream scenario for John Fox as he’s shown he’s willing to have Trubisky hand off as much possible), Dion Sims (he’s still primarily a blocker and the Packers are allowing the least amount of production to opposing tight ends in the league), CHI WRs (there’s no one here to place stock in during a game that sets up for the Bears to play things close to the vest), Brett Hundley (his past game was more acceptable on paper than he played, but he’s still just an option to pursue for rushing points only), Randall Cobb (his longest catch of the year nearly made up his entire line last week as he still only managed 13 percent of the team targets), Packers RBs (Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery had more of an even split coming out of the bye and it appears that both are in roles that will influenced by game script, something that favors Montgomery now that the Packers are steady underdogs), Tarik Cohen (since switching over to Trubisky, Cohen has had more than seven touches just once and hasn’t had more than a one reception in any of those four games, you need to catch lightning in a bottle with his use)
Reasonable Return: Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams (each are volatile WR3 options that have had their upside removed by Hundley)
Chargers @ Jaguars
| LA Chargers | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spread | -4 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 22.5 | ||
| 18.8 | 22 | Points/Gm | 25.8 | 9 |
| 19.0 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 14.6 | 1 |
| 59.5 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 8 |
| 65.1 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.6 | 10 |
| 37.6% | 24 | Rush% | 52.9% | 1 |
| 62.4% | 9 | Pass% | 47.2% | 32 |
| 44.7% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 41.6% | 13 |
| 55.3% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 58.4% | 20 |
- The 1,331 rushing yards by Jacksonville this season are the most in franchise history through eight games.
- The Chargers are allowing 119.9 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, the most in the league.
- Leonard Fournette has a touch on 62 percent of his snaps, the highest rate in the league.
- Blake Bortles has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in seven games this season, tied with Joe Flacco for the most in the league.
- The Jaguars are allowing 1.2 offensive touchdowns per game, the fewest in the league.
- Opposing passers have completed just 14-of-51 passes (27.5 percent) of their passes 15 yards or further downfield against Jacksonville, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Chargers have allowed just 29.3 percent (12-of-41) of those passes to be completed against them, the next best rate in the league.
- Jacksonville is allowing 6.9 passing points per game, the fewest in the league. League average is 13.9 passing points allowed per game.
- Melvin Gordon has averaged 27.5 points and 132.8 yards from scrimmage per game on the road while averaging 11.0 points and 57.5 yards from scrimmage per game at home.
Trust: Leonard Fournette (the Jaguars game plan and execution of that plan hasn’t wavered with Fournette out the past two games, but he should return to his average of 24.2 touches per game against a defensive front that is much better at rushing the passer than defending the run), Melvin Gordon (his bye week couldn’t come at a better time as he was nursing multiple injuries, but has been a road warrior this season not only on the ground, but has 21 of his 30 receptions away from home as well)
Bust: Blake Bortles (he’s doing exactly what the Jaguars want from him, which has been exactly what we don’t need from a quarterback for fantasy purposes), Philip Rivers (the Jaguars have been a clear avoid for fantasy purposes, allowing double-digit points to just one quarterback on the season), Keenan Allen (his targets have dropped in three straight games, finishing as a top-30 scorer in one of his past six games while facing a defense that has allowed one touchdown a receiver all season), Marqise Lee (he scored his first touchdown of the season last week and doesn’t carry a high ceiling while he will draw Casey Hayward in the perimeter)
Reasonable Return: Hunter Henry (every time that we believe the Chargers have figured out using Henry full-time, they pull the rug out from under us, but facing a team that is going to concentrate targets to the interior makes him the most appealing pass catcher for the Chargers)
Vikings @ Washington
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 22.4 | 13 | Points/Gm | 22.1 | 14 |
| 16.9 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 24.2 | 24 |
| 65.8 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 61.9 | 21 |
| 61.4 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 14 |
| 45.4% | 9 | Rush% | 41.4% | 17 |
| 54.6% | 24 | Pass% | 58.6% | 16 |
| 38.3% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 41.8% | 14 |
| 61.7% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 58.3% | 19 |
- Adam Thielen is the first Minnesota player to have five or more receptions in eight straight games since Cris Carter in 1996.
- Thielen is tied for second in the league with 11 receptions of 20 or more yards.
- Since Dalvin Cook was lost for the season, Jerick McKinnon is the RB3 in overall scoring and eighth in yards from scrimmage (106 yards per game).
- Washington has allowed 148 rushing yards per game over their past three games (31st) after allowing 88 rushing yards per game over their opening five games.
- The Vikings have allowed fewer than 20 points in seven of eight games this season, the most in the league.
- Kirk Cousins has been sacked 14 times (11.3 percent of his dropbacks) the past three weeks after being sacked eight times over his first five games (4.8 percent of his dropbacks).
- Minnesota is allowing 10.2 yards per completion, second in the league behind Jacksonville (10.0 yards).
Trust: Jerick McKinnon (Washington has been solid for the season in limiting backs, but he’s been a top-5 scorer in three of his four games since the loss of Cook)
Bust: Kirk Cousins (there’s a chance that Washington could get Spencer Long and Shawn Lauvao this week, but it’s still a spot to proceed with caution on as Minnesota has allowed just two quarterbacks to rank QB16 or higher), Josh Doctson (he’s yet get to WR3 levels yet while heading into a matchup with Xavier Rhodes on the field), Rob Kelley (he’s fallen into the end zone three times the past two weeks, but has 29 carries for 53 yards since returning three games ago), Stefon Diggs (he’s going to be running 80 percent of his routes on the perimeter, where wide receivers have done little of note against Washington), Case Keenum (his two useful starts have come against two of the worst defenses in the league), Latavius Murray (he’s been a top-40 back just once since the loss of Cook), Jordan Reed (even if he’s active, he’s dealing with his third injury of the season that has caused him to miss practice time this week and has posted just one TE1 week on the season), Jamison Crowder (the presence of Xavier Rhodes could funnel targets to him in the slot, but he’s still not completely healthy)
Reasonable Return: Chris Thompson (we know Washington can’t run and Minnesota has allowed six different backs to have four or more receptions and 19 receptions to backs over their past two games), Adam Thielen (he’s going to be in the slot for over half of his snaps away from Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland and that’s where over half of Thielen’s targets come from), Kyle Rudolph (his fantasy output is still tethered to reaching the end zone as he’s finished TE20 or lower in his five games without a score, but Washington is a matchup that we highlight for unlocking ceilings as they’re 29th in points per game allowed to the position), Vernon Davis (he’s gone over 50-yards receiving in five of his past six games regardless if Jordan Reed has played or not, but his fantasy ceiling is contingent on Reed being inactive as he’s been the TE5 and the TE6 those weeks)
Steelers @ Colts
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10 | Spread | 10 | ||
| 27.3 | Implied Total | 17.3 | ||
| 20.9 | 20 | Points/Gm | 18.0 | 25 |
| 16.4 | 2 | Points All./Gm | 28.9 | 32 |
| 65.4 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 19 |
| 59.6 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 22 |
| 45.3% | 11 | Rush% | 43.0% | 15 |
| 54.7% | 22 | Pass% | 57.0% | 18 |
| 39.6% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 42.4% | 17 |
| 60.4% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 57.6% | 16 |
- The Colts allow .447 points per play (32nd) while the Steelers allow .275 (second).
- The Steelers defense ranks fourth in the league in sack rate (9.0 percent of opposing dropbacks) while the Colts rank 32nd in sack rate allowed (10.8 percent) on offense.
- 51.8 percent of the passing yardage allowed by the Colts have come on completions of 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- The Colts are allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt, the most in the league.
- Ben Roethlisberger has averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt over his past three games after averaging 6.5 yards per attempt over his opening five games.
- Le’Veon Bell has accounted for 90.9 percent of his team’s backfield touches, the highest rate in the league.
- T.Y. Hilton has tied a franchise record with three games with 150 or more receiving yards in a season, joining himself in 2014 and Raymond Berry in 1960.
- Hilton has 197 receiving yards total over his six other games outside of those games on the season.
- Jack Doyle has 28.7 percent of the Indianapolis receptions, the highest rate for a tight end in the league.
- Doyle is the first Colts’ tight end to have five or more catches in five straight games since Jacob Tamme in 2010.
Trust: Le’Veon Bell / Antonio Brown (you don’t need me to accentuate this one), Ben Roethlisberger (it’s on the road, but Ben has gotten it going the past few weeks with two of those games coming away from home and he’s hit the Colts up for a top-10 week in each of the past three seasons while the only quarterback to finish in the back half of quarterback scoring against the Colts has been Tom Savage)
Bust: Martavis Bryant (there’s a story to tell yourself on Bryant coming out of the bye and doing something as the Colts have been smashed by downfield targets, but he’s still just a Hail Mary as he’s been a top-40 scorer just once), T.Y. Hilton (his spike weeks have completely recognizable so far while his low ones have as well. This one qualifies for the latter as the Steelers still rank second in the league in fantasy production to wideouts despite their hiccup versus the Lions), Jacoby Brissett (like Hilton, Brissett’s most useful weeks have come in glowing spots. Pittsburgh allows the second-fewest passing points per game)
Reasonable Return: JuJu Smith-Schuster (his target share went all the way up to 33 percent with Bryant benched before the bye. While that won’t hold this week with him active and Brown having a plus matchup, he’s still a starting option), Jack Doyle (he’s the safest of the Indy options this week. He’s had seven or more targets in five straight games with five or more receptions in each of those weeks), Frank Gore (he hasn’t dazzled, but has been a steady RB2/RB3 option weekly, finishing lower than a RB3 just twice on the season), Marlon Mack (he’s a boom or bust flex option since he’s averaging 8.8 touches per game, but there is opportunity for splash plays in the running game as the Steelers have allowed the third highest rate of runs of 10 or more yards on the season)
Texans @ Rams
| Houston | Rank | @ | LA Rams | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5 | Spread | -11.5 | ||
| 17.3 | Implied Total | 28.8 | ||
| 28.6 | 3 | Points/Gm | 32.9 | 1 |
| 26.0 | 30 | Points All./Gm | 19.4 | 9 |
| 66.5 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 18 |
| 60.5 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.6 | 13 |
| 45.7% | 8 | Rush% | 49.5% | 3 |
| 54.3% | 25 | Pass% | 50.5% | 30 |
| 43.0% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 42.3% | 16 |
| 57.0% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 57.7% | 17 |
- Houston has scored a touchdown on three of 50 possessions with Savage under center for his career.
- Savage has completed 2-of-14 passes (14.3 percent) on throws 15 yards or further, the lowest completion rate in the league on those throws.
- The Rams have scored 263 points --their most through eight games since 2000-- after scoring 224 points all of 2016.
- Houston ranks 31st in passing points allowed per attempt (.511) and 31st in pass attempts per touchdown allowed (16.0).
- Jared Goff is averaging 13.8 yards per completion, the highest in the league.
- Todd Gurley leads the league with 12 rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line. He had 10 carries from inside of the 5-yard line all of 2016.
- Gurley is the only player with at least 15 touches in every game this season.
- Over their past six games, Robert Woods leads the Rams in targets (40), receptions (27) and receiving yards (390).
Trust: Todd Gurley (Houston has been stingy to backs, allowing the fewest points per game to backfields, but that’s not enough to move off Gurley’s elite usage as a huge home favorite that is expected to score in bunches), Jared Goff (as we highlighted last week, he’s roasted soft pass defenses, and this is another one with the Houston defense still ravaged by injuries)
Bust: Tom Savage (he completely derailed the NFL’s hottest offense and has thrown for fewer than 5.0 yards per attempt in both of his starts this season), Will Fuller (he was impacted the most by Savage as his quality of targets evaporate, leaving him as a high-variance WR4 moving forward)
Reasonable Return: Robert Woods (he’s had double-digit points in five of his past six games as he’s grown into their primary pass catcher), Cooper Kupp (he’s a boom or bust flex as it’s all about the touchdowns with Kupp as he’s finished WR40 or lower in each of his five games without a score, but while riding Goff in this matchup, all of the Rams receivers are options and 27.7 percent of Kupp’s targets have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate for all wide receivers in the league), Sammy Watkins (he still comes with a lot of risk as he only had two targets last week, but it’s a similar matchup in which if you’re not going to use him in this spot, then you might as well not roster him), DeAndre Hopkins (we won’t always get bailed out by long touchdowns, but the one thing we do is that Savage is going to keep funneling him opportunities as Savage has targeted him on 34 percent of his throws), Lamar Miller (Mr. Reasonable Return has been lower than an RB2 just once all season), C.J. Fiedorowicz (finally returning after sustaining a concussion back in Week 1, he’s a low-floor option based on reception output. Fiedorowicz was targeted 24 percent of the time in his lone startw with Savage a year ago and was targeted 23 percent of the time by Savage while he was in the game to open the season)
Giants @ 49ers
| NY Giants | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 16.1 | 29 | Points/Gm | 15.9 | 30 |
| 25.9 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 26.6 | 31 |
| 61.5 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 66.3 | 6 |
| 67.8 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 70.4 | 32 |
| 35.6% | 29 | Rush% | 33.3% | 32 |
| 64.4% | 4 | Pass% | 66.7% | 1 |
| 44.5% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 49.5% | 32 |
| 55.5% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 50.5% | 1 |
- The 49ers allow the most red zone possessions per game (4.2) while the Giants are allowing 3.6 per game (31st).
- San Francisco has scored a touchdown on 12 percent (13-of-108) of their possessions, the lowest rate in the league.
- San Francisco has allowed 101 runs of five or more yards (32nd) and 35 carries of 10 or more yards (31st).
- 16.4 percent (11-of-67) of Orleans Darkwa‘s carries have gained 10 or more yards, the third highest rate for all running backs with at least 50 carries on the season.
- San Francisco is allowing 119.0 rushing yards per game (31st) and 63.6 receiving yards per game (32nd) to opposing backfields.
- Over the Giants’ past three games, Evan Engram has accounted for 31.5 percent of their fantasy output. For the season, Travis Kelce leads all tight ends in rate of fantasy output for his team at 20.7 percent.
- C.J. Beathard has targeted Carlos Hyde on 21.3 percent of his passes, the most on the team. Hyde received 11.4 percent of the targets from Brian Hoyer.
Trust: Orleans Darkwa (he’s steadily been effective the past month on the ground, but has been run out of games with negative script, something that is unlikely to happen here against a 49ers defense that has been decimated by injuries and is hemorrhaging yardage on the ground, allowing a top-13 running back in every game except for one), Evan Engram (he’s been a top-5 scorer each week since becoming the de facto lead option in the passing game while 49ers have just lost Jimmy Ward and Jaquiski Tartt in back to back weeks), Carlos Hyde (a rare spot as a home favorite may not make his reception ceiling as high as it’s been, but Beathard has only been able to get the ball to him and this is finally a week where he may be able to see some rushing volume)
Bust: Roger Lewis / Tavarres King (you can throw a speculation play on either finding the end zone, but with the Giants expected to be able to run the ball and Engram and Sterling Shepard being ahead of them, each are on the longer play list), Marquise Goodwin (he and Beathard have connected on just 7-of-21 targets so far)
Reasonable Return: Eli Manning (you don’t want to play him and neither do I, but he’s on the board as a streamer as the 49ers have allowed 14 or more points to every quarterback they’ve faced outside of Cam Newton Week 1), Sterling Shepard (he came back and received 24 percent of the team targets, making him a volume-based floor play at worst most weeks and in the WR2 discussion in good matchups such as this one), Garrett Celek (he’s a heave if you’re thin at the position this week as he ran a season-high 31 pass routes last week and the Giants have allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in every game on the season), C.J. Beathard (his offensive situation outside of Hyde is abysmal and the 49ers can’t protect him, but can be a cheap source of rushing output with a passing floor if you want to pursue it and against the team allowing the most passing points per game in the league)
Cowboys @ Falcons
| Dallas | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 23.8 | Implied Total | 26.3 | ||
| 28.2 | 4 | Points/Gm | 21.2 | 17 |
| 22.2 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 21.5 | 14 |
| 64.6 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 26 |
| 63.1 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 18 |
| 47.6% | 5 | Rush% | 41.1% | 18 |
| 52.4% | 28 | Pass% | 58.9% | 15 |
| 36.4% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 42.5% | 18 |
| 63.6% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 57.5% | 15 |
- Dak Prescott leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per possession (2.10).
- Prescott leads all players in fantasy points scored inside of the red zone (80.74), 46.9 percent of his season total.
- 16.8 percent of the Dallas plays have been run inside of the red zone, the second-highest rate in the league after New England (17.6 percent).
- The Cowboys have scored a touchdown on 32.5 percent of their possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- Dallas has scored four or more touchdowns five times this season, the most in the league.
- Since their Week 5 bye, the Falcons have scored on 31.7 percent of their drives (18th) and scored a touchdown on 17.1 percent of those 41 possessions (20th).
- Over that span, Devonta Freeman ranks 22nd in touches among all running backs, averaging 13.5 touches per game, with 15 or fewer touches in each of those four games.
- The Cowboys have allowed 386 rushing yards on 101 carries (3.8 YPC) to opposing backfields with Sean Lee active as opposed to 249 yards on 45 carries (5.5 YPC) with him out of the lineup.
Trust: Dak Prescott (he’s been a QB1 in every game outside of a torrential downpour in Washington), Julio Jones (he’s had a great floor, scoring double-digit points in every complete game while going over 90-yards in four of his past six full games)
Bust: Dez Bryant (he’s been a WR1 just twice on the year and now is dealing with an ankle injury that has his status in doubt), Jason Witten (he has three or fewer receptions in four of his past six games with single-digit yardage in three of those games while the Falcons are third in points allowed to opposing tight ends), Austin Hooper (he’s a high-variance option that has been TE22 or lower in four of the six complete games that Sanu has been active), Devonta Freeman (you’re still starting him in most spots, but he’s been just a lower-RB2/flex option since the bye as the touches have been cut down and Atlanta isn’t providing scoring chances while Dallas has been effective at getting opponents to ditch their run game), Tevin Coleman (he’s had more than 10 touches in just two of his past seven games and has just four receptions since the bye week, which has removed the safety net for his floor if fails to score a touchdown)
Reasonable Return: Matt Ryan (he’s been the lower-end QB1 mix in three straight weeks while Dallas is 24th in passing points allowed per game), Mohamed Sanu (he’s been a WR3 or better in every full game he’s played), Terrance Williams (Williams is on track to play while Bryant’s status is jeopardy. If Bryant misses the game, then Williams has averaged 12.2 points per game in the 10 games without Bryant active), Alfred Morris (without true clarity on the usage of the Dallas backs, he’s the only option that you can have any confidence in playing as an RB2 option this week)
Patriots @ Broncos
| New England | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Spread | 7.5 | ||
| 26.8 | Implied Total | 19.3 | ||
| 27.0 | 7 | Points/Gm | 18.8 | 23 |
| 22.4 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 24.8 | 25 |
| 68.9 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 66.6 | 3 |
| 63.2 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.1 | 3 |
| 40.1% | 21 | Rush% | 40.5% | 20 |
| 59.9% | 12 | Pass% | 59.5% | 13 |
| 37.9% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 43.3% | 21 |
| 62.1% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 56.7% | 12 |
- The Patriots average 84.9 points per game to their skill position players, the most in the league. They allow 83.3 per game on defense, the most in the league.
- After allowing 338.2 passing yards per game to opposing passers, New England has allowed 233 and 212 yards over their past two games.
- Denver has allowed 16 touchdown passes after allowing 13 all of 2016.
- Denver is allowing 204.9 passing yards per game to opposing passers (fourth in the league), but are allowing 2.0 touchdown passes per game (27th).
- Demaryius Thomas was targeted on a season-high 36.7 percent of his routes last week after averaging a target on 21.9 per week for the season.
- Rex Burkhead played a season-high 27 snaps in Week 8, leading the backfield in routes (21), targets and receptions (seven each).
- James White is averaging 10.7 receiving points per game, third for all running backs.
- Tom Brady has targeted running backs (27.7 percent) and tight ends (24.6 percent) on 52.3 percent of his passes over his past six games played versus Denver including the playoffs.
- Rob Gronkowski has 30 receptions for 427 yards and four touchdowns in his four games played against the Broncos over that span with at least six catches for 88 yards and a score in each of those meetings.
- 28.5 percent of the fantasy points scored against Denver have been scored by opposing tight ends, the highest rate in the league.
Trust: Rob Gronkowski (Denver’s corners inherently force the ball away from wide receivers and the Patriots have the best tight end in the league)
Bust: Brandin Cooks (he did have 3-98-1 against the Broncos a year ago with the Saints and only needs one play, but he entered the final drive of the game with just one catch for 30 yards), Dion Lewis (I don’t expect the Patriots to run on Denver like the Eagles did a week ago and Lewis has yet to be involved as a pass catcher, catching just eight passes so far on the year), Danny Amendola (in another matchup, he would be due for a big uptick with Chris Hogan expected to be out, but lining up against Chris Harris for the majority of the afternoon dampens any excitement), DEN RBs (the matchup isn’t daunting, but the Broncos have gone to a three-way committee over the past three weeks, with C.J. Anderson at 50 percent of the carries and Jamaal Charles and Devontae Booker at 25 percent each), Emmanuel Sanders (there’s some flex appeal here, but he’s now been lower than WR30 in four of his seven games played with Brock Osweiler), Brock Osweiler (his inaugural performance went as poorly as we all expected, but Denver is backed into a corner of having to use him until Paxton Lynch is ready)
Reasonable Return: Rex Burkhead / James White (this game has a similar feel to it as the Patriots last game played in which these two caught 12 passes for 153 yards. With Denver smothering the New England wideouts and stopping the run, I’d anticipate their pass catching backs to play a large part in the game plan and White has had eight), Tom Brady (he’s been the average QB11 over his past five games played and lower-end QB1 output is where I’d expect him to be against a Denver team still not giving up a ton of yards, but has allowed their share of touchdowns on the season), Demaryius Thomas (he finally found the end zone a week ago and has been a solid floor play, finishing as a WR3 or better in six of eight games)
Dolphins @ Panthers
| Miami | Rank | @ | Carolina | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spread | -10 | ||
| 14.5 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 14.5 | 32 | Points/Gm | 18.7 | 24 |
| 22.4 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 17.7 | 4 |
| 61.6 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 65.1 | 13 |
| 58.6 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 55.9 | 1 |
| 37.7% | 23 | Rush% | 45.9% | 7 |
| 62.3% | 10 | Pass% | 54.1% | 26 |
| 43.5% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 38.2% | 4 |
| 56.5% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 61.8% | 29 |
- The Dolphins average 286.4 yards for skill players per game, the fewest in the league.
- The Panthers allow 292.4 yards per game to offensive skill players, the fewest in the league.
- Miami is third in the league in converting 66.7 percent of their red zone drives into touchdowns, but are last in the league with 15 red zone possessions on the season.
- Carolina is allowing 1.9 red zone possessions per game, the fewest in the league.
- Jarvis Landry‘s target rate per routes run over the past four weeks has gone from 36.4 percent to 28.2 percent to 26.7 percent to 13.9 percent.
- Kenyan Drake played 37 snaps while Damien Williams played 30 in the first game without Jay Ajayi. Drake had 15 touches while Williams had 13.
- Miami running backs accounted for 28.6 percent of the team targets in Week 9 after receiving 15.8 percent through the first seven games of the season.
- Over the past four weeks, 61.7 percent of Cam Newton‘s fantasy output has come from rushing.
- Christian McCaffrey played a season-high 82 percent of the team snaps in Week 9 with a season-high 20 touches.
- Devin Funchess and McCaffrey accounted for 10 of the Panthers’ 13 receptions and 114-of-137 receiving yards last week.
Trust: Christian McCaffrey (Carolina finally used him as the feature back after Jonathan Stewart had an early fumble. If that rolls over, McCaffrey doesn’t even need to be extremely effective on the ground for it to be a significant factor for fantasy since his receiving floor has been so high)
Bust: Jay Cutler (the departure of Ajayi allowed Adam Gase to put Cutler in a good place to play with tempo and get the ball out quickly, which should give him a pulse in good future matchups, but this isn’t one of those on the road with a nearly non-existent team total), Julius Thomas (it’s not time to chase his 6-84-1 line from last week just yet as 4-64-1 came on the final two possessions of the game in jailbreak mode)
Reasonable Return: Cam Newton (he’s been so reliant on rushing output that it does give some pause since the bottom could fall out without that buoy, while this game does have some pace concerns as each team prefers to slow the game down for opponents), Devin Funchess (in the first game without Kelvin Benjamin, Funchess had 29 percent of the team targets and accounted for 63 percent of the team receiving yardage while Miami is 31st in points allowed per target to opposing wide receivers), Jarvis Landry (the return of Parker and the implementation of using backs heavily in the passing game are something to monitor with Landry going forward, but he’s still had a safe floor, having five or more receptions in every game this season), DeVante Parker (he’s been a top-30 scorer in every full game he’s played, but a WR2 in just one of those four games), Kenyan Drake / Damien Williams (we’ve seen Gase shift his offense before to suit his personnel and using this two-headed group to aid offensive versatility and improve the short passing game is a change that benefits the offense. The rushing production can’t be counted on here against a Carolina team allowing just 64.9 yards rushing to backfields per game, but both can be used as lower-end RB2/flex options for their potential receiving floors), Ed Dickson (if there ever was a week for him to make another appearance on the fantasy radar before Greg Olsen returns, this would be the game as Miami is allowing the second most receptions per game to opposing tight ends)
Context Key:
Trust = Player to outperform baseline expectations
Bust = Player to underperform baseline expectations
Reasonable Return = Baseline Play that won’t hurt you
**All Vegas Lines are taken from Yahoo listings on Tuesday Evenings
