Week 13 typically means the final week for the regular season for many leagues out there. Hopefully everyone is tying up a bow on securing a playoff spot in their seasonal leagues. If not, then make sure you’re dabbling in DFS to tide you over for the rest of the season as you have the freedom to play any level you want.
Let me provide the disclaimer that I encourage you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. You can always cross reference these thoughts with my weekly rankings for further context. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 13 games in a PPR light...
Dallas vs. Minnesota
| Cowboys | Rank | @ | Vikings | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 20.0 | ||
| 65.5 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 62.0 | 23 |
| 61.1 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 10 |
| 50.4% | 1 | Rush% | 40.3% | 14 |
| 49.6% | 32 | Pass% | 59.7% | 19 |
| 32.4% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 37.5% | 9 |
| 67.6% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 62.5% | 24 |
- Dallas ranks second in the league in scoring on the road at 30.2 points per game.
- Minnesota allows 16.6 points per game at home, 5th in the league.
- The Cowboys are second in the NFL in red zone touchdown per game (2.6) while Minnesota allows 1.4 red zone scores per game (3rd).
- Minnesota has allowed just one touchdown pass on throws 15 yards or further downfield while Dallas has allowed just two.
- The Vikings have allowed just one top-12 scoring wide receiver on the season (the fewest in the league) and are the only team that has yet to allow a 100-yard receiver on the season.
- Dallas allows the 4th most passing points per drive (1.81), but opponents average just 9.8 drives per game against them, the second fewest in the league.
- Dak Prescott is tied for third in fantasy points per drive (2.15) with Matt Ryan behind Tom Brady (2.31) and Aaron Rodgers (2.27).
Trust: Ezekiel Elliott (as the Vikings have become less invincible on defense, it’s really showed itself in the run game where they are allowing 118.8 yards per game over their past six), Stefon Diggs (he’s already practicing this week and he’s a lock for a bunch of targets against a Dallas secondary that has allowed top-24 weeks to six receivers who primarily operate out of the slot on the season)
Bust: Dez Bryant (you’re still rolling him out there, but this is game where you’re likely going to need a touchdown from him as the Vikings aren’t allowing any major yardage to wideouts), Cole Beasley (he has 50 yards in every game except for one, but the Vikings have smothered slot options on the season), Matt Asiata/Jerick McKinnon (the league’s least productive backfield against the defense facing the lowest rushing volume allowed per game), Sam Bradford (opposing teams skew so dramatically pass-heavy versus Dallas that there’s opportunity here, but Bradford has thrown multiple scores in just three of 10 games)
Reasonable Return: Dak Prescott (this game has major pacing concerns as both are willing to play a slow game and the individual matchup for Prescott is the toughest he’s had on the season, but his rushing ability is enough to keep him in play as a fringe QB1), Jason Witten (he doesn’t offer much of a ceiling, but with Bryant potentially limited, Witten has a chance to be a solid floor option against a defense that has struggled versus tight ends in three of the past four weeks), Kyle Rudolph (his targets have been volatile since the coaching change, but Dallas should make Minnesota one dimensional and are allowing the most receptions per game to opposing tight ends), Adam Thielen (he has been a top-40 scorer in four straight games, so he’s still in play as a flex option even if Diggs suits up and stands to inherit most of his targets if he’s inactive again)
Editor’s Note: The FanDuel Single Entry Series, presented by RotoGrinders, is back for NFL, so it’s a good time to talk about a process that can help you succeed when building a single GPP roster. Check out the “FanDuel Single Entry Series Strategy Guide: Week 13 Landscape.”
Detroit vs. New Orleans
| Lions | Rank | @ | Saints | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spread | -5 | ||
| 24.3 | Implied Total | 29.3 | ||
| 59.5 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 69.5 | 2 |
| 61.1 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 17 |
| 36.5% | 26 | Rush% | 37.9% | 21 |
| 63.5% | 7 | Pass% | 62.1% | 12 |
| 39.7% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 39.7% | 15 |
| 60.3% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 60.3% | 18 |
- The Saints have scored a touchdown on 37.3 percent of their drives at home, the highest rate in the league.
- Opponents have completed 74 percent of their passes against the Lions, the highest mark in NFL history through the first 11 games of a season.
- Drew Brees leads the league in completion rate at 71.5 percent.
- 92.6 percent of the touchdowns against the Lions have come from inside of the red zone, the highest percentage in the league.
- Brees leads the league in red zone touchdown passes (23) on the season.
- Over the past six weeks, the Saints lead the NFL in rushing and are third in the NFL in rushing yards per game (145.2).
- Since being benched in Week 8, Mark Ingram has carried 47 times for 382 yards (8.1 yards per carry) while Tim Hightower has carried 58 times for 228 yards (3.9 YPC).
- New Orleans has allowed a touchdown on 17.9 percent of opponent drives (7th best) over their past five games after allowing a touchdown on 31.7 of drives beforehand (last in the league).
- After averaging 2.8 touchdowns per game through six weeks (10th), the Lions have averaged 1.8 per game since (28th).
- Marvin Jones had 29.7 percent of the team targets last week, his highest total since Week 2.
Trust: Drew Brees, Michael Thomas/Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead (you live through the down weeks with this group because of the upside they hold. Thomas is the main option in the red zone and Snead has the best individual matchup of the group while Cooks tallied 10 receptions against the Lions secondary a season ago if you’re concerned about Darius Slay), Matthew Stafford (the Saints have allowed just one top-12 scorer over their past five games, but I can’t get away from Detroit being so inherently pass-heavy to begin with and being forced to play with more urgency to score points)
Bust: Marvin Jones (I’m fine if you want to chase last week’s targets in a game where the Lions will be forced to score, but Jones still has cracked double digit points in just one of his past six games and New Orleans has limited vertical passing options), Anquan Boldin (he’s scored in four of the past six games if you want to pursue a touchdown, but he’s also been inside of the top-30 just twice on the season), Josh Hill/Coby Fleener (we’d love this spot if this was one player, but Fleener played a season-low 24 percent of the snaps last week, yet was still was involved in the passing game. If needing a waiver player this week, I wouldn’t mind throwing a dart on either option here against a Lions team that is allowing the second most receiving points per game to opposing tight ends, but they likely eat from each other)
Reasonable Return: Mark Ingram (the snaps are still being split despite him being the superior player, but he’s shown his ceiling is still worth pursuing and is attached to a monster total at home), Tim Hightower (he’s been a top-10 scorer in three of the past four weeks and has 17 or more touches on four of his past five), Theo Riddick (the Saints have allowed the 7th most receiving points to backfields on the season), Golden Tate (he’s been far more consistently involved and productive than Jones while fitting the build of receiver that has given the Saints the most trouble on the season), Eric Ebron (he was shut out last week, but still was coming off of three strong games while the Saints have allowed 50 or more yards to three tight ends over their past four games)
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Los Angeles vs. New England
| Rams | Rank | @ | Patriots | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Spread | -13 | ||
| 15.8 | Implied Total | 28.8 | ||
| 61.3 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 17 |
| 64.5 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.4 | 21 |
| 40.2% | 15 | Rush% | 44.9% | 5 |
| 59.8% | 18 | Pass% | 55.1% | 28 |
| 40.4% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 38.4% | 11 |
| 59.6% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 61.6% | 22 |
- 40.9 percent of the yards gained against the Rams the past three weeks have been on the ground, the highest rate in the league.
- LeGarrette Blount leads the league in 4th quarter rushing yards (295).
- Blount has averaged 17.3 points per game when the Patriots are double digit favorites over the past three seasons.
- 39.5 percent of Rob Gronkowski‘s targets have come 15 yards or further downfield, the highest rate among tight ends.
- The Rams have allowed 273.8 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks on the road as opposed to 194.2 per game while at home.
- Just 25 percent of Todd Gurley‘s carries have gained five or more yards, the fewest of all players with 100 or more carries.
- Kenny Britt ranks 6th in percentage of team yards (31.3 percent) and tied for 7th in percentage of team receiving touchdowns (33.3 percent) for all wide receivers, but 15th in percentage of team receptions (23.7 percent).
- The Patriots are the only team that has yet to allow a passing touchdown of 30 yards or longer on the season.
Trust: Tom Brady (the Rams have only allowed three top-12 scorers, but they’ve all come on the road), LeGarrette Blount (he’s gone two games in a row without a touchdown, but the Rams have been shredded on the ground recently and the Pats are big home favorites)
Bust: Martellus Bennett (I kept trying to hang on here, but Bennett has just had too many floor games since Brady has returned, finishing higher than TE15 in just two of seven games), Malcolm Mitchell (you’d ideally like to see more target stability before being pressed into using him weekly and he played just 47 percent of the snaps last week, so I’m not completely comfortable using him still in a game where the Patriots should roll), James White/Dion Lewis (there’s weekly flex floor material here, but these guys really just need to be one player), Jared Goff (the three touchdowns last week were promising, but still good for only QB22 on the week)
Reasonable Return: Julian Edelman (four consecutive top-30 weeks, but just one in the top-20), Kenny Britt (he’s the only receive here you feel decent about as he’s been a top-36 scorer in seven games on the season despite being a top-24 one in just three), Todd Gurley (weekly record scratch on Gurley being a consistent, volume based RB2 and not much else), Lance Kendricks (he’s been a top-10 tight end in four of his past five)
Denver vs. Jacksonville
| Broncos | Rank | @ | Jaguars | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | Spread | 5 | ||
| 23.3 | Implied Total | 18.3 | ||
| 65.2 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 65.1 | 14 |
| 66.6 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.7 | 15 |
| 42.1% | 10 | Rush% | 35.2% | 30 |
| 57.9% | 23 | Pass% | 64.8% | 3 |
| 42.3% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 45.1% | 30 |
| 57.7% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 54.9% | 3 |
- The Jaguars have averaged 28.7 rushing attempts per game over the past three weeks (8th) after averaging 20.8 per game through eight weeks (32nd).
- 86.1. percent of the runs against the Broncos have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- Since taking over as the starter, Devontae Booker is 8th in the league in carries (77), but 18th in rushing yards (231).
- Denver ranks 30th in the league in rushing yards per game on the road (72.2).
- 42.9 percent of Trevor Siemian‘s fantasy output has come in the 4th quarter this season (second among all quarterbacks behind Josh McCown).
- 40.7 percent of Blake Bortles’ fantasy production has come from the 4th quarter, third highest.
- Denver has allowed the fewest pass plays of 20 or more yards (25), while Jacksonville has allowed the second fewest (26).
- The Broncos rank first in passing yards allowed per game (211.5) while the Jaguars rank third (216.3).
Bust: Trevor Siemian/Blake Bortles (the Jaguars have allowed just two top-10 scorers while the Broncos just one), Allen Robinson (a strictly volume and red zone dependent option facing the top defense against receivers), Marqise Lee (he’s been a steady option, but has still had four or fewer receptions in five straight games), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (the Jaguars haven’t allowed a receiver in the top-30 since Week 8 and are allowing a league-low 9.6 yards per completion on the season)
Reasonable Return: Devontae Booker (he hasn’t been effective by any means, but has still been a top-24 scorer in three of his four games since taking over as the starter, with his one true dud coming when Denver was forced into extremely negative game script), Chris Ivory (his health will be in question coming in, but if healthy has been a top-24 back in three of his past four games. If he’s out, then T.J. Yeldon is on the board as a fringe RB2/flex)
San Francisco vs. Chicago
| 49ers | Rank | @ | Bears | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 63.9 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 60.8 | 30 |
| 70.4 | 32 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 19 |
| 45.1% | 4 | Rush% | 36.0% | 28 |
| 54.9% | 29 | Pass% | 64.0% | 5 |
| 48.2% | 32 | Opp. Rush % | 42.0% | 22 |
| 51.8% | 1 | Opp. Pass % | 58.0% | 11 |
- The Bears rank 30th in points per game (16.2) while San Francisco allows the most points per game (31.3) in the league.
- Since taking over as the starter, Colin Kaepernick is 16th in the league in rushing (373 yards).
- Over that span, Kaepernick is 6th in quarterback scoring per game (22.5 points).
- Kaepernick’s 296 passing yards last week were the third most by any player in a 100-yard rushing performance.
- Since Week 7, Vance McDonald leads the 49ers with 18.3 percent of the team targets after receiving just 5.1 percent of the targets through six weeks.
- San Francisco has had the lead for just 10.7 percent of their offensive plays in the second half this season, the lowest rate in the league.
- 40.5 percent of the yardage gained against the 49ers has come via the ground this season (highest in the league), but only 27.8 percent of the yardage gained against the 49ers the past three weeks has been on the ground (15th).
- Jordan Howard ranks fourth in the league in first half rushing yardage (520 yards), but 22nd in second half rushing yards (248).
Trust: Colin Kaepernick (he’s been the QB8, QB5, QB9 and QB1 the past four weeks), Jordan Howard (he continues to mulch yardage in games until the script has forced the Bears to throw for the remainder of the game, and they should be able to hang around wire to wire here against the worst defense in the league)
Bust: Cameron Meredith (he’s still playing the most snaps out of all the Bears receivers, but would be a blind faith matchup play only as he has turned in just eight receptions over four games since Brian Hoyer was lost for the season), 49ers Wide Receivers (since Kaepernick took over, this group has yet to produce a player with multiple top-30 scoring weeks)
Reasonable Return: Carlos Hyde (the Bears are allowing the 5th lowest yards per carry and the second fewest points per game to backfields, but will be without Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman while Hyde is a near lock for 18 plus touches here), Vance McDonald (he’s had steady usage as a byproduct of the offensive volume and lack of receiver talent, while the Bears have allowed a touchdown to opposing tight ends in three straight games and will be without their best coverage linebacker in Freeman), Matt Barkley (he was the QB11 last week and the 49ers have allowed a top-12 scorer in five of their past six games), Marquess Wilson (the Bears had four different receivers with nine or more targets last week, so it’s hard to gauge which branch to hang onto in this passing game, but Wilson led the way with 11 targets last week and is the one who offers the most excitement)
Houston vs. Green Bay
| Texans | Rank | @ | Packers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 19.8 | Implied Total | 25.8 | ||
| 66.5 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 66.3 | 5 |
| 60.0 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.5 | 1 |
| 42.5% | 7 | Rush% | 34.2% | 31 |
| 57.5% | 26 | Pass% | 65.8% | 2 |
| 43.6% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 40.2% | 17 |
| 56.4% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 59.8% | 16 |
- Houston has scored just five touchdowns on the road (fewest in the league) on 8.9 percent of their possessions (last in the league).
- Green Bay has allowed 20 touchdowns at home (third most) on 39.2 percent of opponent’s drives, the highest rate in the league.
- The Packers allow the second most passing points per attempt (.537) in the league but face the fourth fewest passing attempts per game (33).
- Brock Osweiler averages .286 passing points per attempt, last of all starting quarterbacks.
- 94.9 percent of C.J. Fiedorowicz‘s targets have been inside of 15 yards from the line of scrimmage, the highest rate among tight ends.
- Just 4.7 percent of Lamar Miller‘s carries have come from inside of the 10-yard line, the second lowest rate in the league for all backs with 100 or more carries behind Jerick McKinnon (3.8 percent).
- Houston has allowed just 58.8 rushing yards per game over their past four games (fewest in the league) after allowing 135.4 rushing yards per game through seven weeks.
- Since losing Eddie Lacy in Week 6, Aaron Rodgers leads the Packers in rushing with 196 yards.
- Since Week 7, Davante Adams is third in the NFL in targets (59), second in receiving yards (558) and tied for second in touchdown receptions (5).
Trust: Aaron Rodgers (Houston is the toughest matchup he’s faced since Minnesota in Week 2 and he’s dealing with a hamstring, but Rodgers has been a top-6 scorer in six straight as he’s on pace to shatter his career-high in pass attempts), Davante Adams/Jordy Nelson (with the Packers throwing as much as they are, both have become weekly top-24 options regardless of matchup)
Bust: Randall Cobb (injuries and the ascension of Adams have capped what was looking like a return to the Cobb of old, but hasn’t been a top-30 option since Week 7), Jared Cook (his snap share dropped in a tougher matchup and gets an equally rough outlook this week against the Texans, who have held all but two tight ends they’ve faced to fewer than 50 yards receiving), DeAndre Hopkins (I want to believe this is the week as the Packers are allowing the most points per target to opposing wideouts, but Hopkins hasn’t been a top-36 scorer since Week 6 and has had many promising matchups along the way), Lamar Miller (Miller has found himself in the bucket of players that are default RB2 options based on weekly touches, but he’s been a top-12 scorer just twice and another tough matchup as a road underdog with a lowly total and the Packers are still allowing the 5th fewest points to opposing backfields)
Reasonable Return: James Starks (he’s rushed for just 99 yards since returning but has 13 receptions and double digit scoring output in all three games), C.J. Fiedorowicz (his floor has started to show up here over the past few weeks and isn’t getting many downfield targets to compensate low volume moments, but Green Bay is allowing the 8th most points to opposing tight ends)
Kansas City vs. Atlanta
| Chiefs | Rank | @ | Falcons | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spread | -4 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 26.5 | ||
| 63.4 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 22 |
| 67.3 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.8 | 30 |
| 38.3% | 20 | Rush% | 40.7% | 13 |
| 61.7% | 13 | Pass% | 59.3% | 20 |
| 41.5% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 34.7% | 2 |
| 58.5% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 65.3% | 31 |
- Atlanta has scored on 55.4 percent of their possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- Atlanta averages 3.5 offensive touchdowns per game (second) while allowing 3.1 offensive touchdowns per game (last).
- Kansas City has allowed 424 yards per game over the past four weeks, the second most in the league.
- Atlanta ranks 31st (69) while Kansas City ranks 32nd (73.3) in plays allowed per game over the past three weeks.
- 26.2 percent of Devonta Freeman‘s targets have come from inside the red zone, the highest for all running backs.
- Over the past four games, Taylor Gabriel has five touchdowns on just 16 touches.
- The Chiefs are 31st in red zone touchdown rate (42.1 percent) while opponents have scored a touchdown on 75 percent of their red zone possessions versus Atlanta, the highest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs have rushed for fewer than 100-yards as a team in five consecutive games, their longest streak since 2007.
- Travis Kelce has had back to back 100-yard receiving games for the first in his career.
- Tyreek Hill has been targeted on 31.4 percent of his routes, the highest rate in the league.
Trust: Matt Ryan (he’s had a quiet stretch here with some down games and the bye, but that should come to an end as the Chiefs have allowed a top-12 quarterback in four straight and in five of their past six), Julio Jones (he moves all over the field while the Chiefs stay in the same defensive assignments and have allowed the most receiving points per game to receivers), Travis Kelce (he’s fooled us before, but has had two big games in a row and the Chiefs should have to chase points here while Atlanta has allowed eight top-10 tight ends on the season)
Bust: Austin Hooper (his run of drawing the most difficult tight end matchups continues)
Reasonable Return: Devonta Freeman (his rushing efficiency hasn’t been strong, but he remains the lead option and has averaged 16.4 points per game over his past five with a low week of RB21), Tevin Coleman (he’s averaged just 8.8 touches per game over his past four games played with a high of 10 and has fewer than 20 yards from scrimmage in two of those games, but if you’re chasing a touchdown, he’s scored once every 12.6 touches, best in the league), Taylor Gabriel (the matchup is too strong to completely run away from him despite his production on such low volume being completely unsustainable), Tyreek Hill (he’s been far too good to put back in the bottle even if Jeremy Maclin finally returns this week), Mohamed Sanu (he’s been a top-36 scorer in three of his past four and four of his past six), Alex Smith (the ceiling is never massive, but Atlanta is allowing the most passing points per game in the league), Spencer Ware (the Chiefs have been completely ineffective running the ball and he has more than two receptions in just one of his past nine games, but Atlanta has been a get right for backs as they allow the second most points per game to opposing backfields on the season)
Miami vs. Baltimore
| Dolphins | Rank | @ | Ravens | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 18.8 | Implied Total | 22.3 | ||
| 57.0 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 67.5 | 4 |
| 66.4 | 25 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.6 | 3 |
| 43.2% | 6 | Rush% | 36.0% | 29 |
| 56.8% | 27 | Pass% | 64.0% | 4 |
| 43.3% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 36.6% | 7 |
| 56.7% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 63.4% | 26 |
- Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 13.1 percent of their possessions, 31st in the league.
- Miami (33.1 percent) and Baltimore (33.5 percent) allow the two lowest third down conversion rates in the league.
- After rushing for 529 yards over his three games Weeks 6-9, Jay Ajayi has rushed for 201 yards in his three games since.
- The Ravens allow 66.0 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, the fewest in the league.
- Just 22.9 percent of the runs against the Ravens have gained five or more yards, the lowest percentage in the league.
- DeVante Parker has been targeted on 28.6 percent of his routes the past three weeks after being targeted on 16.6 percent over his first seven games.
- Jarvis Landry has just 18.4 percent of the Miami receiving yardage over the past three weeks after having 32.3 percent over the first eight games of the season.
- Kenneth Dixon‘s snap share the past four weeks: 29 percent, 32 percent, 38 percent and 45 percent.
Bust: Jay Ajayi (he’s been down for three straight weeks and still isn’t catching any passes while facing the league’s stingiest unit versus the run), Jarvis Landry (he’s the WR39 over the past nine weeks), Terrance West (losing snaps weekly, he hasn’t been inside of the top-24 over his past five games), Joe Flacco (he’s thrown multiple touchdowns just twice and finished in the top half of scoring twice), Ryan Tannehill (the Ravens have been a tough defense to stack production against at home and have allowed just three top-10 quarterbacks on the year), Steve Smith/Mike Wallace (Miami has allowed just two top-20 receivers over their past eight games and are now allowing the 8th fewest yards per game to opposing wide receiving units on the season)
Reasonable Return: DeVante Parker (he’s surging in a similar manner as he did to close last season, the only slight concern is that he’s stacked most of his recent volume while Miami has been chasing points), Kenneth Dixon (he’s working his way into the RB2/flex mix, but still has no grip on goal line work)
Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati
| Eagles | Rank | @ | Bengals | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | Spread | 1 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 64.8 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 66.4 | 6 |
| 60.9 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 23 |
| 41.4% | 11 | Rush% | 39.7% | 17 |
| 58.6% | 22 | Pass% | 60.3% | 16 |
| 39.6% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 42.4% | 25 |
| 60.5% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 57.6% | 8 |
- The Bengals are averaging .292 points per play on offense this season (27th) after averaging .406 per play in 2015 (5th).
- Jeremy Hill‘s snap rate jumped from 40 percent to 49 percent this week, while Rex Burkhead played 52 percent of the team snaps.
- Despite the even snap share, Hill had 39 percent of the team touches after having 29 percent of the team touches through 10 games, including a career-high six receptions.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Hill ran a season-high 23 pass routes after averaging 10 routes run per game.
- Just 6.1 percent of Hill’s carries this season have gone for 10 or more yards, the lowest rate for all players with 100 or more carries.
- Tyler Eifert had 23.4 percent of the team targets while Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell had 19.1 percent each in the Bengals first game without A.J. Green.
- Since the Eagles’ Week 4 bye, Carson Wentz ranks 32nd in points per game (10.9) with just six touchdown passes.
Bust: Carson Wentz (lack of weaponry and his own play have moved him into the bottom rung of quarterback options), Brandon LaFell (even the target bump hasn’t been enough for him as he’s been outside of the top-50 in five of his past six games), Andy Dalton (he hasn’t been higher than QB15 in any of the past three games and it’s hard to feel good about using him without Green until we get something useful out of him first), Dorial Green-Beckham (he has 18 targets over the past two weeks, which makes him tough to ignore, but the Bengals have allowed the 5th fewest yards to wide receiving units and have been particularly tough for boundary receivers)
Reasonable Return: Jeremy Hill (he hasn’t run well, but the weekly touches exist for a floor and if he’s going to catch passes like last week going forward, then he’ll be a weekly starting option regardless of how effective he really is on the ground), Tyler Eifert (he gets another rough matchup this week, but like last week, his weekly usage now that he’s the best player in this passing game can be enough), Tyler Boyd (his target volume rolled over with a full week to deal with Green’s loss, but there’s a marginal ceiling here as if he fails to score as there’s not much more than WR3 production on the table), Darren Sproles/Wendell Smallwood (Sproles has held flex floor appeal all season and Smallwood remains in play for those chasing touchdown output while the Bengals have allowed 133.7 yards per game on the ground over their past seven games), Zach Ertz (he’s averaged 19 percent of the team targets over the past month while Cincinnati allows the sixth most receptions per game to opposing tight ends), Jordan Matthews (he’s expected to be good to go after exiting Monday night with an ankle injury and although the Bengals have been good versus receivers altogether, they have allowed four top-24 weeks to slot receivers)
Buffalo vs. Oakland
| Bills | Rank | @ | Raiders | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 23.3 | Implied Total | 26.3 | ||
| 61.5 | 26 | Plays/Gm | 65.9 | 9 |
| 63.3 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 8 |
| 48.3% | 2 | Rush% | 39.7% | 18 |
| 51.7% | 31 | Pass% | 60.3% | 15 |
| 44.0% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 40.4% | 18 |
| 56.0% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 59.6% | 15 |
- Buffalo averages 19.8 points per game on the road (21st) as opposed to 32.4 points per game at home (third).
- Oakland is allowing 6.2 yards per play, the most in the league.
- The Raiders are allowing a league-high 9.6 yards per pass attempt at home as opposed to 6.4 Y/A on the road (5th).
- Buffalo has thrown the ball just 55.2 percent of the time while trailing, the lowest rate in the league while trailing.
- Sammy Watkins played 45 percent of the team snaps in his first game since Week 2.
- 15.7 percent of the plays against the Raiders have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
- The average length of passing touchdowns against the Bills has been 29.8 yards, the second highest in the league. The Raiders are the third worst, averaging 27.2 yards per touchdown pass allowed.
- Derek Carr has the third highest completion percentage on throws 15 or more yards downfield (51.7 percent), but just 13.7 percent of his passes are that far downfield, the third lowest rate.
- Since going for 173 receiving yards in Week 8, Amari Cooper has 135 yards receiving over his three games since.
Trust: LeSean McCoy (he’s been an RB1 in each of his past three full games while Oakland is allowing the third most rushing yards to opposing backfields), Derek Carr (Buffalo has allowed a top-10 quarterback in three of their past four)
Bust: Michael Crabtree (Cooper and Crabtree have both been top-24 scorers in the same week just once over the past 10 games, so owning either has been an up and down ride, but in an “either or” situation, Cooper has the on paper advantage this week as the Bills has struggled more versus vertical playmakers)
Reasonable Return: Tyrod Taylor (after a down week, he picked right back up, having at least six rushing points in five of his past six games), Sammy Watkins (he was eased in last week, but flashed the splash ability while he should get extended run this week), Amari Cooper (edge to Cooper this week), Latavius Murray (he’s rushed for 60 yards in just one of his past five games but has been a top-24 scorer in all five with three top-10 scoring weeks)
Tampa Bay vs. San Diego
| Buccaneers | Rank | @ | Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 69.3 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 15 |
| 63.4 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 22 |
| 42.3% | 9 | Rush% | 40.1% | 16 |
| 57.7% | 24 | Pass% | 59.9% | 17 |
| 41.8% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 35.6% | 4 |
| 58.3% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 64.4% | 29 |
- Opponents have scored on just 18.8 percent of their drives against Tampa Bay over the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
- The Chargers have had the lead for 49.5 percent of their offensive snaps, the third highest in the league behind Dallas (52.4 percent) and New England (60.3 percent).
- Last week was the first time Antonio Gates had gone without a target since his rookie season in 2003 (192 straight games).
- Gates has the most receptions (30) of all non-running backs without a reception of 20 or more yards on the season.
- Tyrell Williams’ last five non-Denver scoring weeks have been the WR11, WR13, WR14, WR9 and the WR15.
- Melvin Gordon leads the league in red zone carries (49), carries inside of the 10 (26) and carries inside of the 5 (16).
- Since returning, Doug Martin‘s snap share has gone from 41 percent to 78 percent to 79 percent.
- Mike Evans leads the league in targets (46) on throws 15 yards or further downfield.
Trust: Mike Evans (massive volume and touchdown upside weekly), Tyrell Williams (he’s been consistently dinged up, but has consistently produced outside of facing the league’s worst matchup for receivers over the past two months), Philip Rivers (at home against a team coming across country that is allowing the 6th most passing points per attempt)
Bust: Cameron Brate (touchdown regression finally caught up to his volume and pedestrian snap rates as he’s been the TE26 and TE17 the past two weeks)
Reasonable Return: Antonio Gates (he’ll surely get a target this week, but he’s in the touchdown or bust club), Dontrelle Inman (he’s been a flex floor option for five weeks running, but both of his touchdowns this season are on busted coverage), Melvin Gordon (no one is dominating backfield touches like he is and is a solid home favorite, but Tampa Bay hasn’t allowed a top-12 back since Week 5), Jameis Winston (he’s had 16 or more points in six straight while San Diego has allowed a top-10 quarterback in two of their past three), Doug Martin (he’s barely cleared 3.0 yards per carry for the season, but has been able to hang onto lower end RB2 status due to volume)
New York (NFC) vs. Pittsburgh
| Giants | Rank | @ | Steelers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | ||
| 21.8 | Implied Total | 27.3 | ||
| 61.9 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 20 |
| 69.1 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.6 | 9 |
| 37.3% | 24 | Rush% | 37.2% | 25 |
| 62.7% | 9 | Pass% | 62.8% | 8 |
| 36.6% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 36.3% | 5 |
| 63.4% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 63.7% | 28 |
- The Giants rank first in sack percentage as a defense over their past three games (11.9 percent) while Pittsburgh ranks second (10.6 percent).
- Ben Roethlisberger leads the lead with 11 touchdown passes on throws 15 yards or further downfield.
- Roethlisberger has thrown a touchdown once every 16.2 pass attempts, 5th best in the league.
- The Giants are allowing a passing touchdown once every 45.7 pass attempts, the best in the league.
- 19.6 percent of Le’Veon Bell‘s rushing yards have come on third down, the highest percentage for all players with over 100 carries on the season.
- 88.7 percent of Bell’s carries have gained positive yardage, the highest rate for all backs over 100 carries.
- The Giants have allowed just 21 runs of 10 or more yards, the second fewest in the league.
- Antonio Brown leads the league with 352 receiving yards in the 4th quarter this season.
- Eli Manning has thrown three of more touchdowns in four games since Week 6, trailing only Drew Brees and for the most games over that span.
- Odell Beckham was targeted on a season-high 40. 7 percent of his routes Week 12 after his previous high was 27 percent.
- 60.7 percent of Rashad Jennings’ rushing yards have come in the second half, the highest rate for all players with over 100 carries on the year.
Trust: Le’Veon Bell (the matchup isn’t as good as he’s had the past two weeks, but his all-purpose ability is always there), Antonio Brown (the Giants have been strong against the pass, but there’s not an individual matchup that scares you here and the better lead receivers that the Giants haven’t faced have still gotten over), Odell Beckham (the Giants have started moving him around the offense more and he’s scored eight touchdowns over his past seven games)
Bust: Sterling Shepard (he’ll surely see a target this week, but hasn’t cleared 50 yards in any of his past eight games while the Steelers have allowed one top-30 scoring week to a slot receiver this season), Rashad Jennings (last week was a solid heat check on this running game and Jennings has struggled outside of late game production while Vegas has me concerned about the Giants total and them staying in a balanced script for the entire game), Ladarius Green (he made two splash plays while this offense is stills searching for a consistent option outside of Brown and Bell and while his snaps went up last week, he was still only at 26 percent of the plays, so you’re taking a leap of faith at this point still)
Reasonable Return: Eli Manning (his touchdown output has spiked with Beckham’s, but still has just two top-10 weeks on the season), Ben Roethlisberger (he’s always in play at home, but the Giants have allowed two quarterbacks in the front half of quarterback scoring and just one inside of the top-10 all season)
Washington vs. Arizona
| Washington | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 66.1 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 70.1 | 1 |
| 63.2 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 7 |
| 37.8% | 22 | Rush% | 36.3% | 27 |
| 62.2% | 11 | Pass% | 63.7% | 6 |
| 39.4% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 42.8% | 26 |
| 60.6% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 57.2% | 7 |
- Washington averages 43.1 yards per drive, the most in the league.
- Kirk Cousins leads the league with 32.2 passing yards per possession.
- Arizona is allowing .484 points per play over the past three weeks, 31st in the league.
- Washington allows 5.2 yards per carry on the road, the most in the league.
- The Cardinals are allowing a league-low 1.02 points per targets to opposing tight ends and are the only team in the league that has yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end on the season.
- Over the past four weeks, David Johnson averages more receiving yards (72.5) per game than rushing yards (60).
- Over that span, Arizona has rushed on just 27.8 percent of their plays, 30th in the league.
- Carson Palmer‘s average length of touchdown pass is 9.3 yards, the lowest of all starting quarterbacks. In 2015, it was 18.9 yards.
- Larry Fitzgerald leads the NFL in first half targets (64) while ranking 20th in second half targets (46).
Trust: David Johnson (his receiving output has circumvented the recent loss of rushing opportunity)
Bust: Carson Palmer (he has one week higher than QB15 since Week 2), Jordan Reed (between his shoulder injury and Arizona erasing tight ends, his outlook is low), DeSean Jackson (Arizona has stifled boundary receivers and he’ll surely see plenty of Patrick Peterson), Rob Kelley (Arizona is allowing the second fewest rushing yards per game to backfields, so he’ll need a short touchdown to find his floor this week), Jermaine Gresham (he’s coming off of a 10 target game and the matchup is sound, but he still hasn’t reached 40 yards in a game since Week 1, so if you don’t get a touchdown, there’s not much here to hold onto)
Reasonable Return: Larry Fitzgerald (his ceiling has disappeared, finishing higher than WR24 just three times since Week 2, but he’s the only piece of this offense you can believe in while Washington has struggled with interior receiving options), Jamison Crowder (six straight top-30 weeks while slot options have beaten Arizona regularly), Kirk Cousins (the Cardinals have allowed just two quarterbacks inside of the top-10 and those two each added over 50 yards of rushing, but I’d put this matchup on par with when he faced Minnesota three weeks ago and he was the QB12 that week with 18 points)
Carolina vs. Seattle
| Panthers | Rank | @ | Seahawks | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 18.8 | Implied Total | 25.8 | ||
| 65.7 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 28 |
| 65.0 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.2 | 28 |
| 42.3% | 8 | Rush% | 39.5% | 19 |
| 57.7% | 25 | Pass% | 60.5% | 14 |
| 36.9% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 42.4% | 24 |
| 63.1% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 57.7% | 9 |
- Seattle ranks 9th in the league in points per play at home (.422) as opposed to 31st on the road (.256).
- Carolina is allowing 8.6 yards per pass attempt on the road (31st) as opposed to 6.0 Y/A at home (8th).
- Carolina has allowed 329.3 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks on the road, the most in the league.
- Carolina is second in the league in red zone touchdown rate, scoring a touchdown on 70.6 percent of their red zone possessions.
- Greg Olsen is 20th in receiving yards per game (36) since Week 8 among tight ends.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Doug Baldwin‘s average depth of target (aDOT) last week was 1.0 yards after averaging an 8.4 aDOT prior.
- 36.4 percent of Doug Baldwin‘s targets have come in the 4th quarter, the highest rate for all players with 75 or more targets on the season.
Trust: Jimmy Graham (he’s torched his past four home games while Carolina has allowed the second most touchdowns to opposing tight ends)
Bust: Doug Baldwin (these teams have faced off three times over the past two seasons and Baldwin has been held to fewer than 40 yards in two of those while Carolina has limited players from the slot this season), Cam Newton (he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns just once against Seattle and hasn’t rushed for fewer than 40 yards in each of the past five meetings while being attached a lowly team total on the road), Thomas Rawls (he’s yet to provide us with any reason to believe that he should be treated as a reliable fantasy play and Carolina the fourth fewest rushing yards per game to opposing backfields), Kelvin Benjamin (he hasn’t had fewer than 50 receiving yards over his past seven games, but has been a top-30 option just once over that span), Jonathan Stewart (the Panthers have really struggled to run the ball with Ryan Khalil out, so don’t be totally fooled by last week’s line in which Stewart managed to break a 47-yard run to cover up more of the same struggles. He’s always in play for touchdown opportunities but the team total is begging us to look elsewhere and he has two receptions over his past six games if the script gets away from the Panthers)
Reasonable Return: Russell Wilson (just when we were starting to comfortable with him the rug was pulled out on us, but Carolina’s pass defense hasn’t traveled all season and he finally used his legs a week ago), Greg Olsen (he’s all but disappeared the past month, but attacking the Seattle secondary through good tight end play has always been sound as Olsen went for over 15 points on each matchup a year ago)
Indianapolis vs. New York (AFC)
| Colts | Rank | @ | Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | Spread | 1 | ||
| 25.3 | Implied Total | 24.3 | ||
| 65.3 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 62.0 | 24 |
| 64.2 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 14 |
| 37.3% | 23 | Rush% | 41.4% | 12 |
| 62.7% | 10 | Pass% | 58.7% | 21 |
| 39.4% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 38.2% | 10 |
| 60.6% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 61.8% | 23 |
- The Colts allow 38.1 yards per opponent’s possession, the most in the league.
- The Colts are allowing 8.6 adjusted yards per pass attempt, the most in the league.
- Just 29.9 percent of Brandon Marshall‘s receiving yardage has come in the second half of games, the lowest of all wide receivers with 50 or more targets.
- 33.3 percent of T.Y. Hilton‘s receptions have gone for 20 or more yards, the highest rate for all wide receivers with 25 or more receptions.
- Donte Moncrief‘s average length of touchdown is 4.0 yards, the lowest of all players with more than three receiving touchdowns on the season.
- Moncrief has converted 71.4 percent of his red zone targets for touchdowns, the highest rate on the season.
- After allowing three top-12 scorers and 21.6 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks through five weeks, the Jets have allowed just one top-12 scorer and 12.7 points per game to quarterbacks over their past six games.
- The Jets are allowing 4.7 yards per play over their past three games, the second fewest in the league.
Trust: T.Y. Hilton (vertical playmakers have been a problem for the Jets all season), Matt Forte (the Colts have allowed 15 or more points to 10 backs on the season)
Bust: Frank Gore (he’s had fewer than 85 total yards in four of his past five games and the Jets are still eliminating production on the ground)
Reasonable Return: Andrew Luck (the Jets have been improved versus the pass but haven’t been tested by many strong air attacks over that span while Colts will have no problem being pass happy regardless of the Jets forcing them to be), Donte Moncrief (his yardage floor is scary but has been dominant near the end zone, especially in games with Luck under center), Ryan Fitzpatrick (the last time he was in the front half of scoring was Week 2, but the Colts have allowed multiple touchdowns in eight straight with 22.4 points per game over that stretch), Brandon Marshall (even in this matchup, he’s still a tough option to fully trust as he’s had 70 or fewer yards in six straight), Quincy Enunwa (he’s scored in three of his past five, but hasn’t had more than six targets in any of his past three games), Bilal Powell (prior to last week, Powell had three straight top-24 weeks and is still playing roughly half of the offensive snaps)
Context Key:
Trust = Set him in your lineups this week
Bust = Player to underperform season average
Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average
**All Vegas Lines are taken from BetUs Tuesday Evenings
