Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Week 16 is here and hopefully many of you will be unwrapping a fantasy championship this weekend. If by some poor fortune you’ve already been eliminated from your postseason, then you can still dabble into daily fantasy games to keep your fantasy fix satiated. We’re done with Thursday games for the remainder of the season, but we still have two Saturday games this week, so make sure all of your lineup needs for those games are set early on.
As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.
Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 16 games with a PPR light…
Colts @ Ravens
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | Spread | -13.5 | ||
| 14.0 | Implied Total | 27.5 | ||
| 16.1 | 31 | Points/Gm | 24.6 | 8 |
| 26.3 | 31 | Points All./Gm | 18.3 | 4 |
| 62.3 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 10 |
| 64.4 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.1 | 26 |
| 44.8% | 10 | Rush% | 44.2% | 12 |
| 55.2% | 23 | Pass% | 55.8% | 21 |
| 47.5% | 32 | Opp. Rush % | 41.8% | 14 |
| 52.6% | 1 | Opp. Pass % | 58.2% | 19 |
- Baltimore ranks second in the league in points per play allowed (.281) while the Colts rank 31st (.408).
- The Ravens have scored a touchdown on 32.4 percent (11-of-34) of their drives over the past three weeks (fourth in the league).
- Joe Flacco has averaged 7.3 yards per attempt over that span (15th) after posting 5.3 Y/A prior (39th).
- Indianapolis is last in the league in yards per attempt allowed to opposing passers (8.3 Y/A).
- The Colts rank 31st in rate of completions allowed to gain 10 or more yards (57.3 percent) and 32nd in rate of completions allowed to gain 20 or more yards (23.1 percent).
- The Colts have faced 41.0 rushing attempts per game over the past three weeks as teams have rushed 60 percent of their offensive plays against them over that span. Both totals are the highest in the league.
- The Colts average 1.5 offensive touchdowns per game, tied with San Francisco for the fewest in the league.
Trust: Joe Flacco (there is a slight concern here that volume won’t be high and he’ll have to make the most of his opportunities, but he has 16 or more points in three straight while the Colts have allowed the most QB1 weeks to non-QB1s on the season), Alex Collins (he had a down week after a hot stretch, but still tallied 17 touches and the game script here should be strongly in his favor against a team that has been facing a ton of volume on the ground recently)
Bust: Jacoby Brissett (he’s been the QB21 or lower in four straight while the highest a passer has finished in Baltimore this season has been QB21), T.Y. Hilton (using him is strictly chasing a big play and while Baltimore has allowed a handful of splash plays since losing Jimmy Smith for the season, Hilton has one reception longer than 16 yards over his past five games), Frank Gore (a huge road dog against a run defense that has gotten better as the season has progressed, Baltimore is allowing just 62.5 rushing yards per game over their past seven games to opposing backfields)
Reasonable Return: Mike Wallace (he’s been a top-30 wideout in four of his past six games with 66.7 yards per game over that span while Jeremy Maclin is looking to be doubtful against one of the most giving secondaries in the league), Ben Watson (there’s not a high ceiling here as he has four or fewer catches in five straight games, but is on the streaming radar as he has been a TE1 in two of his past three while the Colts have allowed double-digit points to a tight end in three of their past four games), Jack Doyle (Doyle’s 71 receptions are just six behind being the second most in a season for a Colts tight end while Baltimore is 20th in receptions per game allowed to opposing tight ends and has allowed over 70 yards receiving to the position in three of their past five games)
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Vikings @ Packers
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10 | Spread | 10 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 15.0 | ||
| 24.5 | 10 | Points/Gm | 22.1 | 17 |
| 17.3 | 2 | Points All./Gm | 23.8 | 21 |
| 66.2 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 22 |
| 59.9 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 20 |
| 46.6% | 5 | Rush% | 38.5% | 24 |
| 53.4% | 28 | Pass% | 61.5% | 9 |
| 38.8% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 45.4% | 29 |
| 61.2% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 54.6% | 4 |
- The Packers have allowed opponents to score on 40.3 percent of their possessions (31st in the league) and have allowed a touchdown on 23.5 percent of the opponent’s drives, the highest rate in the league.
- Case Keenum has scored 16 or more points in seven consecutive games, the longest streak among active players.
- Green Bay has allowed four consecutive QB1 scoring weeks and 13 touchdown passes over that span, the most in the league.
- The Packers have allowed a touchdown pass on 17.5 percent of their drives, 30th in the league.
- Adam Thielen has caught 21-of-28 targets for 298 yards and two touchdowns over his past two games versus Green Bay.
- 72.6 percent (37-of-51) of the offensive scores by the Packers have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- The Vikings have allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 14.6 percent of their drives, second-lowest rate in the league behind the Jaguars (11.7 percent).
- In Aaron Rodgers’ first game back, 71.6 percent of the Packers’ plays were passing plays after having 54.9 percent rate in the seven previous games with Brett Hundley as the starter.
- Packers running backs totaled just 14 touches in that Week 15 game, their lowest total in a game this season.
Trust: Case Keenum (he’s had one of the best floors at the position over the past seven weeks while drawing a Green Bay defense that is bleeding points and touchdowns to the position over the past month), Adam Thielen (now that he’s not playing in the slot as much as early in the season, he’s had a lower floor, but this is a spot for spike week against a Green Bay defense that has allowed seven touchdowns to wideouts over their past four games)
Bust: Brett Hundley (his usable moments have come against limping defenses while the Vikings are anything but, ranking fourth in passing points allowed per game), Jordy Nelson (he’s averaging 22.6 yards per game over his past eight with a high of 35 and with Davante Adams likely to be out, will draw a matchup with Xavier Rhodes), Jamaal Williams (his volume should rebound with Hundley starting again, but he’s going to need a touchdown to be viable as the Vikings are second in yards from scrimmage allowed to backfields), Geronimo Allison (he would’ve been a deeper option had Rodgers been active, but there are better waiver options in better matchups to go after), Kyle Rudolph (he’s looking limited again and ran just 11 pass routes last week while hobbled so he may not get a lot of volume, but if you have to play him, he’s scored in four straight games while the Packers have allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their past four games)
Reasonable Return: Stefon Diggs (he’s averaged just 47 yards on 6.4 targets per game over his past seven games, but the Packers have allowed a pair of wide receiver teammates to score double-digit points in seven games this year), Latavius Murray (game script should be in his favor and he’s had 12 or more points in six of his past eight games, but still needs to find the end zone to find his footing as he’s been the RB23, RB43 and RB59 in the games in which he’s failed to score over that span), Jerick McKinnon (his 42 receptions since Dalvin Cook was lost for the season trail only Le’Veon Bell and Alvin Kamara over that span and the Packers are allowing the most receiving points per game to running backs), Randall Cobb (he’s on the table as a low-ceiling WR3/flex option as he has 15 receptions over the past two weeks and has been a WR3 or better in four of his past seven games while Adams should be inactive to keep targets high)
Editor’s note: DFS experts share their favorite Week 16 RBs. Find out who here!
Rams @ Titans
| LA Rams | Rank | @ | Tennessee | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 27.5 | Implied Total | 21.0 | ||
| 31.3 | 1 | Points/Gm | 21.1 | 19 |
| 19.4 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 22.8 | 18 |
| 62.2 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 29 |
| 63.6 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 27 |
| 46.2% | 6 | Rush% | 44.7% | 11 |
| 53.9% | 27 | Pass% | 55.3% | 22 |
| 40.5% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 37.9% | 3 |
| 59.5% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 62.1% | 30 |
- The Rams average 3.1 offensive touchdowns on the road this season, most in the league.
- The Titans are 31st in red zone plays allowed (134) and plays allowed inside of the 10-yard line (64).
- The Rams lead the league in red zone opportunities per game (4.4) and are third in red zone touchdowns per game (2.4).
- Todd Gurley leads the league in fantasy points scored inside of the red zone (113.1) and 10-yard line (78.1) on the season.
- 15.9 percent of Jared Goff‘s pass attempts have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate for all full-season starters.
- Goff is the first Rams quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns in four straight games since Marc Bulger in 2006.
- Robert Woods returned to play 73 percent of the team snaps in Week 15 and lead the Rams with 33.3 percent of the team targets.
- Tennessee has allowed seven touchdowns to running backs on the season, the fewest in the league.
- Delanie Walker has been targeted on 24.4 percent of his routes, the highest rate for all tight ends.
Trust: Todd Gurley (although backs haven’t found the end zone against the Titans and Tennessee is second in rushing points allowed to backs, Gurley has overcome a slew of tougher paper matchups over the past several weeks and has over 100-yards from scrimmage in eight of his past nine games)
Bust: Sammy Watkins (with Woods back on the field, there are better options to chase a touchdown from at the position as he averages just 2.1 receptions per game over his past 11 games), Marcus Mariota (last week was his high highest scoring week since Week 3, but he’s been a QB1 just three times on the season and the Rams are seventh in passing points allowed per game), DeMarco Murray/ Derrick Henry (the matchup is in place as the Rams are 27th in rushing points allowed to backfields, but the split here still favors Murray, who has been a top-30 back in just two of his past seven games)
Reasonable Return: Jared Goff (he’s had just 78 pass attempts over the past three weeks and has 225 passing yards or fewer in four of his past five games, which has capped his ceiling, but the yardage could rebound as Tennessee is 26th in yardage allowed per game to passers and he’s still throwing multiple touchdowns per game), Robert Woods (he returned to inherit the same role in the passing game and has been a WR2 or better in six of his past nine games with double-digit points in seven of those games), Rishard Matthews (he has five receptions or a touchdown in four of his past five games), Delanie Walker (his target volume is stable regardless of matchup and has scored in three of his past four games and while the Rams are sixth in receptions allowed to the tight end position, they have allowed five touchdowns to the position over their past seven games), ), Cooper Kupp (you need a touchdown for him to be effective as he’s only finished higher that WR38 three times with Woods active, but this could be a good week to chase that as the Titans have struggled to cover the middle of the field)
Bills @ Patriots
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Spread | -12 | ||
| 17.5 | Implied Total | 29.5 | ||
| 18.9 | 23 | Points/Gm | 28.2 | 4 |
| 21.9 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 19.6 | 6 |
| 62.8 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 65.9 | 9 |
| 66.5 | 30 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.9 | 18 |
| 49.0% | 2 | Rush% | 40.4% | 22 |
| 51.0% | 31 | Pass% | 59.7% | 11 |
| 43.6% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 38.8% | 4 |
| 56.4% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 61.2% | 29 |
- Tom Brady has thrown an interception in four consecutive games for the first time since 2013.
- Buffalo is allowing a touchdown pass once every 304.5 passing yards, the lowest rate in the league. League average is allowing a passing touchdown every 169.5 passing yards.
- Brady has thrown two or fewer touchdowns in 13 of his past 16 December games against divisional opponents, averaging 234 passing yards per game in those weeks with three 300-yard passing games.
- The Bills have allowed one quarterback to finish higher than QB12 on the season (Jameis Winston) despite having eight games versus quarterbacks that are in the top half of seasonal scoring at the position.
- 76.6 percent of Rob Gronkowski‘s receptions have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate for all tight ends in the league and third-highest rate for all players.
- Gronkowski has had 34.4 percent of the team targets over his past three games played after 19.2 percent in his nine previous games.
- Buffalo has allowed 40 runs of 10 or more yards since trading Marcel Dareus prior to Week 9, the most in the league.
- The Bills are allowing 149.6 rushing yards per game over that span, the most in the league.
- 14.6 percent of Dion Lewis’ rushing attempts have gained 10 or more yards, the third highest rate for all running backs with 50 or more carries on the season.
- Just 57 percent of the yardage gained by the Bills has come via passing, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust: Rob Gronkowski (although he’s typically tormented the Bills on the road near his hometown and the Bills have allowed just three touchdowns to opposing tight ends, he’s scorching at the moment with 23 plus points in three straight games while his usage just keeps rising)
Bust: Tom Brady (you’re still playing him if somehow you’re still alive with him, but he’s been the QB19 or lower in three straight games, has underperformed in late season division games, while the Bills have allowed the fewest passing scores on the season), Tyrod Taylor (he’s been the QB18 or lower in four of his five starts on the road while he has just one touchdown pass over his past four games versus New England), Kelvin Benjamin (he had 4-104 against the Patriots earlier in the season with the Panthers, but this Patriots secondary has been much better since then as the last lead boundary receiver to finish as a WR2 or better against New England was Demaryius Thomas back in Week 10)
Reasonable Return: LeSean McCoy (like his quarterback, he’s been better in Buffalo, averaging 78.3 yards from scrimmage per game on the road as opposed to 117.1 per game at home, but the Patriots have struggled with backs that are used in both facets of the offense over the past three weeks, allowing over 100-yards from scrimmage to three straight leads backs, including McCoy himself), Brandin Cooks (after a spike in target volume immediately following the injury to Chris Hogan, Cooks’ target share has been just 15.9 percent over the past three weeks and Gronk didn’t even play in one of those games, but he is still a splash away against a team that just allowed 18 receptions for 209 yards to the Miami wide receivers), Dion Lewis (he’s posted double-digit points in five of his past six games while the Bills have been shredded on the ground regularly over the back half of the season), Charles Clay (after having just 10.9 percent of the team targets over his first four games since returning to the lineup, he has 31.8 percent of the targets over the past two weeks and the Patriots rank 23rd in receptions allowed to opposing tight ends), Mike Gillislee (with just Lewis and Gillislee looking like they’ll carry the running back duties, Gillislee is back in play for touches and scoring opportunities against the league’s worst run defense over the past seven weeks)
Browns @ Bears
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 16.0 | Implied Total | 22.5 | ||
| 14.8 | 32 | Points/Gm | 16.7 | 28 |
| 25.9 | 30 | Points All./Gm | 21.0 | 12 |
| 63.4 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 58.7 | 31 |
| 64.9 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 12 |
| 38.0% | 25 | Rush% | 45.7% | 7 |
| 62.1% | 8 | Pass% | 54.3% | 26 |
| 44.9% | 26 | Opp. Rush % | 42.8% | 16 |
| 55.1% | 7 | Opp. Pass % | 57.2% | 17 |
- Cleveland is last in the league in points per play on offense (.233).
- Cleveland’s 34 turnovers are the most in the league and the most they’ve had through 14 games in a season since 2006.
- DeShone Kizer has thrown a league-high six interceptions in the red zone, tied for the most in a season since red zone data was tracked dating back to 1995.
- Just 46.4 percent (13-of-28) Josh Gordon‘s have been deemed catchable per Pro Football Focus, the second-lowest rate of all wide receivers with 25 or more targets on the season.
- 15.9 percent of Isaiah Crowell‘s carries over the past seven weeks have gained 10 or more yards after just 8.8 percent did prior.
- Chicago runs 64.3 plays per game at home as opposed to 53.1 per game on the road, the largest split in the league.
- Jordan Howard has averaged 43 rushing yards per game in five games following a 100-yard performance this season.
Bust: DeShone Kizer (his usable weeks have been identifiable based on opponent and the Bears are 10th in yardage allowed passing and ninth in touchdowns allowed passing, so he’ll likely need a big day with his legs), Corey Coleman (he’s been out-targeted by Gordon 28-13 since Gordon returned from suspension with just six catches, leaving him in desperation only territory against a team that isn’t surrendering many passing scores)
Reasonable Return: Jordan Howard (here we are again with him as a home favorite against a team that has allowed a lead back to reach 100-yards from scrimmage in four of their past five games, but still he’s a boom or bust option that has been hard to figure out regardless of predicting the game script or not), Kendall Wright (he’s a WR3/flex option as he has reeled in 17-of-24 targets the past two weeks and reclaimed the lead receiving role in the offense, but is still more of a floor play that can be victim to volume and lack of touchdown upside), Mitchell Trubisky (he’s not trustworthy in start one QB leagues, but is on the streaming radar as he’s thrown for 271 and 314 yards the past two weeks and the Browns have allowed a QB1 in six of their past seven games, including Joe Flacco and Brett Hundley over their past two), Josh Gordon (the volume has been strong, but also misleading since so many of his targets haven’t been usable, but the Bears have allowed 85 yards or a touchdown to five of the past six WR1s they’ve faced), Duke Johnson (he has double-digit points in five of his past six games, but remains best suited as a flex play since his yardage totals of 60.3 yards from scrimmage per game don’t provide a high floor for when he fails to score a touchdown), Isaiah Crowell (he’s always a threat to be scripted out and carries low touchdown upside, but holds flex value as he has been a top-30 back in eight of his past 10 games)
Falcons @ Saints
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | ||
| 23.3 | Implied Total | 28.8 | ||
| 22.7 | 15 | Points/Gm | 28.6 | 3 |
| 20.1 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 20.1 | 9 |
| 60.8 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 17 |
| 62.4 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 8 |
| 45.1% | 9 | Rush% | 43.9% | 13 |
| 54.9% | 24 | Pass% | 56.1% | 20 |
| 39.7% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 41.6% | 13 |
| 60.3% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 58.4% | 20 |
- Michael Thomas is the second player ever to start his career with two seasons with at least 90 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving, joining Odell Beckham.
- Drew Brees has thrown two or fewer touchdown passes in 11 straight games, his longest such streak since the 2005-2006 seasons and longest in season streak since his rookie year.
- After allowing just one QB1 week through their opening five games, Atlanta has allowed a QB1 in seven of their past nine games with averages of 19.3 passing points per game over that span.
- Alvin Kamara is currently averaging 6.6 yards per rushing attempt and 10.1 yards per reception. The only two backs to average over 6.0 yards per carry and over 10.0 yards per catch since 1973 are Jamaal Charles in 2010 and C.J. Spiller in 2012.
- The 21 rushing touchdowns by the Saints are tied for their second highest total in a season, trailing only the 1979 season when they had 28 rushing scores.
- Atlanta has allowed 83.3 rushing yards per game over their past four games after allowing 115.9 yards rushing prior.
- Matt Ryan is averaging 222.1 passing yards per game over his past six games with 221 or fewer in five of those games after averaging 269.6 passing yards per game over his first eight games.
- Devonta Freeman has scored a touchdown in six consecutive games against the Saints, tied for the longest streak by an opponent ever against New Orleans with Isaac Bruce and Joey Galloway.
Trust: Alvin Kamara (he returned last week with another RB1 performance, his eighth in a row in full games played while Atlanta is 30th in receiving points allowed to backs), Mark Ingram (he had just 49 yards on the ground when these teams played two weeks ago, but his passing game usage has spiked a bit, catching 15 passes over his past three games on 18 targets), Michael Thomas (he has five or more receptions in nine straight games and the touchdowns have finally found him despite leaving a few on the table last week, scoring in three straight)
Bust: Ted Ginn (if back from injury, he draws a defense that has allowed the second-lowest rate of 20-yard completions in the league), Matt Ryan (his yardage has dropped, and he’s thrown just four touchdowns over his past four games while the Saints haven’t allowed a QB1 in a full game with Marshon Lattimore active since Week 6), Tevin Coleman (returning from concussion, the touches haven’t been there for him when Freeman has been in the lineup as he has 9.9 touches per game in those contests with one or zero receptions in five of the past six of those games)
Reasonable Return: Drew Brees (the spot is strong at home against a defense that is allowing a lot of points since the start of the season to opposing passers, but Brees has steadily lived in the high floor area for fantasy this year), Julio Jones (he’s had just 10 receptions over his three games since his blowup game in Week 12 and should be near the area of the 5-98 line he posted when these teams met two weeks ago), Devonta Freeman (being on the road as an underdog with Tevin Coleman returning have him back on the RB1/RB2 line, but the Saints have allowed double-digit points to eight different backs over their past five games), Mohamed Sanu (he’s had three or fewer catches in five of his past seven, but still carries scoring upside and the Saints have been most vulnerable to slot receivers, including allowing a 6-83-1 line to Sanu)
Lions @ Bengals
| Detroit | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | Spread | 5 | ||
| 24.0 | Implied Total | 19.0 | ||
| 25.6 | 7 | Points/Gm | 16.6 | 29 |
| 24.2 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 21.8 | 15 |
| 61.9 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 55.3 | 32 |
| 64.0 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 68.4 | 32 |
| 36.7% | 32 | Rush% | 40.4% | 21 |
| 63.3% | 1 | Pass% | 59.6% | 12 |
| 41.4% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 46.0% | 30 |
| 58.6% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 54.0% | 3 |
- The Bengals have lost back to back games by 24 or more points for the first time since 2008.
- Cincinnati has scored just 10 offensive touchdowns at home this season, the fewest in the league.
- Since the Bengals Week 6 bye, A.J. Green ranks 21st among all wide receivers in receptions (35) and 23rd in receiving yardage (476).
- Over that span, Green has secured just 48.6 percent (35-of-72) of his targets after posting a 62.7 percent (32-of-51) catch rate prior.
- 33.3 percent (18-of-54) of Marvin Jones’ receptions have gained 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league for all players with 30 or more receptions on the season.
- 14.7 percent of the plays run against the Bengals have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
- Cincinnati has allowed the most runs of five or more yards (159) while the Lions have the fewest rushes of five or more yards as an offense (92).
- The Bengals have allowed 17.8 points per game to opposing quarterbacks since their Week 6 bye after allowing 10.8 per game prior.
Trust: Matthew Stafford (he’s been quiet the past month with four straight QB2 weeks, but gets a reeling Bengals defense to aid in breaking that slide as Cincinnati has allowed four straight QB1 weeks, including ones to DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky over that span), Golden Tate (he is coming off a low game, but against a depleted secondary that has allowed lines of 4-51-1 and 8-80-0 from the slot over the past two weeks, you can make a play on the upside this week)
Bust: Andy Dalton (he’s averaging just 181 yards passing over his past 10 games and the way the Bengals are finishing out this season inspires no confidence in using him anywhere), A.J. Green (he’s been a WR3 or better in just four of his past nine games and the Lions have yet to allow a WR1 scoring week to a lead wideout on the season), Tyler Kroft (you can always chase a touchdown against the Lions, but he’ll have to get one to be useful as Kroft has just 12 catches over his past seven games), Ameer Abdullah (he could slide into Theo Riddick‘s passing game role, but still hasn’t reached 60 yards from scrimmage in a game since Week 4)
Reasonable Return: Marvin Jones (he’s only averaging 3.5 receptions per game over his past six, but has maintained a yardage floor due to his splash play ability as he has hit 85 yards or more in seven of his past nine), Tion Green (if Theo Riddick is inactive, he will be a flex option as the lead back against a defense that is 23rd in rushing points allowed per game to backfields), Eric Ebron (he’s led the team in targets in each of the past two weeks and the Bengals have allowed a tight end to score in each of the past two weeks), Joe Mixon (the matchup is sound against a Lions team that is 30th in rushing points allowed per attempt, but there may be a question of how many touches he gets along with Giovani Bernard upon his return to the lineup coming off a concussion)
Buccaneers @ Panthers
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Carolina | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5 | Spread | -11.5 | ||
| 17.3 | Implied Total | 28.8 | ||
| 20.4 | 21 | Points/Gm | 23.6 | 12 |
| 24.0 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 20.4 | 11 |
| 64.0 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 11 |
| 63.9 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.9 | 2 |
| 37.6% | 27 | Rush% | 48.0% | 3 |
| 62.4% | 6 | Pass% | 52.0% | 30 |
| 42.8% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 36.8% | 2 |
| 57.2% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 63.2% | 31 |
- Tampa Bay allows 30.3 points per game on the road this season, the most in the league.
- The Buccaneers are allowing 148.4 rushing yards per game on the road, 31st in the league.
- Carolina is averaging 165.9 rushing yards per game over their past eight games (the most in the league) after averaging 95.5 per game prior.
- Cam Newton has rushed for at least 50 yards in seven games this season. The most by a quarterback in a season since 2012 when he had seven and Robert Griffin had eight.
- Greg Olsen has run 13, 22 and 35 routes in each game since returning from injury per Pro Football Focus.
- Carolina is allowing 278.7 passing yards per game with 13 touchdown passes to quarterbacks over their past six games after allowing 201.6 yards per game with eight touchdowns over their first eight games.
- 53.5 percent of the fantasy points scored against the Panthers has been posted by opposing wide receivers, the highest rate in the league. 52.8 percent of the points allowed by Tampa Bay have been scored by wide receivers, the next highest.
- Tampa Bay is last in the league in sack rate at 3.5 percent of opponent dropbacks.
Trust: Cam Newton (he’s been running wild and always plays better in matchups where the opposition struggles to bring pressure, something Tampa Bay is the worst at in the league), Mike Evans (he found the end zone for the first time since Week 7 on Monday Night while his targets could spike with DeSean Jackson ailing and Carolina has allowed five WR1 scoring weeks over their past four games)
Bust: Peyton Barber (he turned 16 touches into 68 total yards last week as the lead back, but runs into a tough assignment as a road against a defense that is fifth in rushing yardage allowed per game to backfields), Damiere Byrd (he’s still in play for those wanting to play for a touchdown in a game where Newton should throw multiple scores, but it’s best to let someone pursue last week’s two touchdown game as he’s had just 74 yards receiving on 11 targets over the past three weeks)
Reasonable Return: Devin Funchess (he’s only had eight catches over the past three games and is dealing with a shoulder injury while Tampa Bay has had issues defending wideouts on the season, they have allowed just one top-30 receiver since allowing the monster game to Julio Jones), Christian McCaffrey (coming off a season high 136 yards from scrimmage, he gets a defense missing multiple pieces that has allowed 147.2 yards from scrimmage per game to opposing backfields over their past five games), Jonathan Stewart (he’s only a flex option since he’s touchdown dependent, but the Bucs have allowed seven rushing scores to backs over their past four games), Greg Olsen (Tampa Bay has only allowed three TE1 weeks all season with three touchdowns, but Olsen had a similar layout versus the Packers a week ago and popped because he was back to being the lead target in a game where Newton was expected to have an elevated passing performance, something we’re counting on here), Jameis Winston (as down of a season Winston has had, he’s been a QB1 in five of his past seven full games played while the Panthers have allowed a QB1 in four of their past six games multiple passing touchdowns in five of those games), Cameron Brate (if O.J. Howard isn’t ready to return from his injury, then Brate is back to being an option for those chasing a touchdown as Carolina has allowed a tight end to score in each of the past two weeks and in three of their past five games), Chris Godwin (he’s not much of an option for those in seasonal leagues unless things are really slim, but with DeSean Jackson in a walking boot, Godwin is a deeper dart who saw 10 targets the last time he started back in Week 10 and eight targets over the past two weeks with Jackson leaving each game early), Adam Humphries (he is more of a seasonal floor play if you need it as the targets could be bumped up without Jackson and if Captain Munnerlyn doesn’t return, Carolina couldn’t defend the slot a week ago)
Dolphins @ Chiefs
| Miami | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spread | -10 | ||
| 17.0 | Implied Total | 27.0 | ||
| 18.0 | 26 | Points/Gm | 25.6 | 6 |
| 24.4 | 27 | Points All./Gm | 21.6 | 14 |
| 62.4 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 28 |
| 60.9 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.1 | 29 |
| 36.8% | 31 | Rush% | 40.7% | 20 |
| 63.2% | 2 | Pass% | 59.3% | 13 |
| 42.8% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 43.0% | 20 |
| 57.2% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 57.0% | 13 |
- Kareem Hunt had a target or touch on 77 percent of his snaps in Week 15, his highest rate in a game this season. His previous high was 60 percent in Week 5.
- Hunt has six 100-yard rushing games on the season, a franchise record for a rookie running back.
- Hunt has six carries of 10 or more yards over the past two weeks after having seven such runs over his previous seven games.
- Miami is allowing 139.1 rushing yards on the road this season (30th) as opposed to allowing 71.0 per game at home (fourth).
- Alex Smith leads the league with 13 touchdown passes from outside of the red zone.
- Opposing teams have converted 70.7 percent of their red zone opportunities against Miami into touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs haven’t allowed more than two touchdowns in a game in Arrowhead since Week 7 of last season, 13 total games including the postseason.
- The Dolphins average 1.1 offensive touchdowns per game on the road this (last in the league) while averaging 2.7 per game at home (tied for sixth).
Trust: Kareem Hunt (28 and 31 touches over the past two weeks and the Dolphins haven’t traveled well at all this season), Alex Smith (he’s gotten back on track and the past three quarterbacks to face the Dolphins at home have all scored over 20 points and have been the QB6, QB9 and the QB1), Travis Kelce (last week was the fifth time that Kelce failed to finish as a TE1 in scoring and in the games following the previous four, he’s scored five of his seven touchdowns on the season while the Dolphins are 31st in receptions allowed to tight ends on the season), Kenyan Drake (he’s been an RB2 or better in six of the seven games since the Jay Ajayi trade and an RB1 in five of those weeks whether Damien Williams have played or not, while the Chiefs have allowed double-digit points to six backs over their five games since their Week 10 bye)
Bust: Jay Cutler (he’s yet to finish higher than QB18 on the road while the Chiefs have smothered teams at Arrowhead), DeVante Parker (his 12 targets last week were the most he’s had in a game this season and the script here could be just as poor as it was last week, but he’s far too volatile to chase raw targets from since he still was only a WR3 with that volume spike and the Chiefs have defended wide receivers much better over the past two weeks)
Reasonable Return: Tyreek Hill (he’s had a steady floor with double-digit points in six consecutive games and only needs one play in a game to make his fantasy day, but the Dolphins may have found something here late in the season with Xavien Howard as the past three lead wideouts to face Miami have combined to catch 5-of-19 targets for 85 yards), Jarvis Landry (even with no 100-yard games on the season, he’s the only player with at least five receptions in every game and leads the league in touchdown receptions inside of the 10-yard line)
Broncos @ Washington
| Denver | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 18.8 | Implied Total | 22.3 | ||
| 18.1 | 24 | Points/Gm | 21.8 | 18 |
| 23.4 | 20 | Points All./Gm | 25.6 | 29 |
| 67.1 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 26 |
| 58.6 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 21 |
| 42.4% | 16 | Rush% | 41.4% | 17 |
| 57.6% | 17 | Pass% | 58.6% | 16 |
| 45.3% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 44.3% | 25 |
| 54.7% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 55.7% | 8 |
- Washington is last in the league in plays per game (52.3) over the past three weeks.
- Washington has rushed for 50.7 yards per game over the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
- Kirk Cousins has been in the bottom half of weekly QB scoring in four consecutive weeks and in six of his past eight games.
- Denver is allowing 200.1 passing yards per game, second in the league.
- C.J. Anderson has 64 percent of the Denver backfield touches over the past three weeks after having 40 percent over the previous seven weeks.
- Washington is allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game since their Week 5 bye, the most in the league.
Bust: Kirk Cousins (his situation has deteriorated over the back half of the season while the Denver defense has begun to see some reversion on that high touchdown rate they had allowed for the middle of the season), Jamison Crowder (he’s turned in a solid back half of the season despite the rest of the offense caving in on itself, but runs into a day where he’ll nearly exclusively lock up with Chris Harris on the inside), Josh Doctson (another week, another terrible draw for him), Vernon Davis (he has just nine catches over his past five games through multiple good matchups, so even a matchup with the defense facing the highest TE target rate in the league is far from a spot where we can count on him), Emmanuel Sanders (he’s still not 100 percent and has just two games inside of the top-60 scoring receviers over the past seven weeks while failing to score a touchdown since Week 2), Brock Osweiler (he was in the back half of scoring at his position in each of his three starts earlier in the year ands while Washington isn’t a daunting matchup, but they aren’t as soft the Indianpolis D that Osweiler carved up last Thursday, either)
Reasonable Return: C.J. Anderson (he’s taken the backfield back and has notched 110, 73 and 158 yards from scrimmage over the past three weeks while the Washington run defense has allowed RB2 or better weeks to three of the past four lead backs they’ve faced), Kapri Bibbs (the matchup isn’t good as Denver is sixth in rushing yardage allowed to backfields and fourth in yards per carry, but with Samaje Perine unlikely to play, Bibbs will be forced to play nearly every down, which puts him in the mix for flex status), Demaryius Thomas (with Osweiler starting, Thomas can stay afloat as an option as he’s been the WR9, WR19 and WR14 in the three games started by Osweiler so far this season)
Chargers @ Jets
| LA Chargers | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 24.5 | Implied Total | 18.0 | ||
| 22.2 | 16 | Points/Gm | 20.4 | 20 |
| 18.2 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 24.4 | 26 |
| 63.0 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 61.7 | 25 |
| 63.1 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.4 | 22 |
| 40.7% | 19 | Rush% | 43.8% | 14 |
| 59.3% | 14 | Pass% | 56.3% | 19 |
| 42.7% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 44.1% | 23 |
| 57.3% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 55.9% | 10 |
- Since their Week 11 bye, the Jets have allowed 30 points per game, the most in the league after allowing 22.2 points per game prior.
- Passers against the Jets have posted a 9.4 percent touchdown rate on their completed passes, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
- 20.2 percent of the completions against the Jets gained 20 or more yards, the second highest rate in the league.
- Keenan Allen leads all wide receivers with 12 targets inside of the 10-yard line.
- Robby Anderson has 32.6 percent of Bryce Petty‘s targets after receiving 26.7 percent of his throws a year ago.
- Anderson has secured just 44.9 percent (22-of-49) of those total targets from Petty. He posted a 57.8 percent (52-of-90) catch rate with Josh McCown and a 56.1 percent rate (23-of-41) with Ryan Fitzpatrick over that same span.
- The Jets have had a different member of their backfield lead the team in yards from scrimmage in four consecutive games with all of Matt Forte, Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire having a game over that span.
Trust: Keenan Allen (he suffered a back injury late in the game last week, so we’ll need to monitor his availability in practice as the week moves on, but if he’s good to go, the Jets have allowed 7-108-0, 6-185-2, 8-93-1 and 9-93-1 lines to the past four WR1s they’ve faced), Melvin Gordon (he’s a big favorite who returned to RB1 status last week as his passing game use returned, which should continue with Austin Ekeler breaking his hand)
Bust: Bryce Petty (another tough matchup for him against a defense that is fourth in yards allowed to opposing passers), Robby Anderson (he’s dropped down to the WR62 and WR43 in his two games without Josh McCown available or limited while the Chargers have yet to allow a 100-yard receiver on the season and just two to score a touchdown over their past eight games), NYJ RBs (the three-way split on a bad offense makes it easy to avoid an individual from this group, but if have to play someone, Bilal Powell is the best bet for a usable game)
Reasonable Return: Philip Rivers (his arch nemesis Arrowhead claimed him again last weekend, but if Allen is good to go, he’ll have a favorable matchup against a Jets team that has allowed 15 or more points to five of the past seven quarterbacks they’ve faced), Tyrell Williams (he’s more inviting as an option if Allen has a setback during the week, but he still has a matchup worth pursuing a splash play from based on the high rate of splash plays the Jets allow in the passing game), Antonio Gates (he’s back in our peripheral vison as a touchdown option with Hunter Henry being placed on injured reserve. The Jets have allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to opposing tight ends, but have allowed the third-most touchdowns)
Jaguars @ 49ers
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | Spread | 4 | ||
| 23.3 | Implied Total | 19.3 | ||
| 26.7 | 5 | Points/Gm | 18.1 | 25 |
| 14.9 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 24.1 | 23 |
| 67.1 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 66.4 | 5 |
| 61.7 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.9 | 28 |
| 50.6% | 1 | Rush% | 36.9% | 29 |
| 49.4% | 32 | Pass% | 63.1% | 4 |
| 41.1% | 11 | Opp. Rush % | 47.4% | 31 |
| 58.9% | 22 | Opp. Pass % | 52.7% | 2 |
- Jacksonville has scored 30 or more points in three straight games, the first they’ve done that in franchise history.
- The Jaguars have won five games by 20 or more points, their most ever in a season since they entered the league in 1995.
- Blake Bortles is averaging 9.9 yards per pass attempt over the past three weeks (first) after averaging 6.5 Y/A prior (28th).
- The 49ers are allowing 101 yards from scrimmage per game to opposing backfields over their past five games with zero touchdowns after allowing 182.6 yards per game with 10 touchdowns to backfields prior.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is the first 49ers quarterback to pass for 300 yards in back to back games since Jeff Garcia in 2000.
- Garoppolo is averaging 33.1 passing yards per drive, the most in the league.
- Jacksonville is allowing 15.1 passing yards per drive, the fewest in the league.
- Carlos Hyde has been targeted on 7.1 percent of Garoppolo’s throws after being targeted 11.4 percent by Brian Hoyer and 22.6 percent by C.J. Beathard.
- Jacksonville hasn’t allowed a red zone touchdown since Week 9. The next lowest team over that span has allowed six.
Trust: Blake Bortles (he’s been a QB1 in four straight weeks and has 16 or more points in seven of his past eight games while the 49ers have allowed 16.9 or more points to seven of the past nine quarterbacks they’ve faced with only Drew Stanton and Mitchell Trubisky being the exceptions of that group)
Bust: Jimmy Garoppolo (while his performance to date has been a success, he has thrown just two touchdowns while this is by far his toughest matchup where that touchdown production can’t be expected to see an uptick), Carlos Hyde (he’s lost his receiving floor, which is why he’s posted just 66, 78 and 39 yards from scrimmage over the past three weeks and we can’t chase a touchdown against the Jags)
Reasonable Return: Marquise Goodwin (he’s had 99 or more yards in three straight games and while the matchup is tough, he should hang on to WR3 viability as the targets have nowhere else to go and the Jaguars have allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards to opposing wide receivers over their past four games with four of those being touchdowns), Dede Westbrook / Keelan Cole (Westbrook still played more snaps and ran more routes than Cole last week, so their target volume could flip back to the way it was prior to last week’s game, but both are on the board as options with Marqise Lee out against a 49ers team that has allowed double-digit points to seven wideouts over their past six games while we like Bortles to have a strong game), Leonard Fournette (he’s been a roller coaster here over the back half of the season in terms of availability and performance, but even with the 49ers being improved against backfields recently, he’s still going to be a high-volume option if he’s ready to return)
Seahawks @ Cowboys
| Seattle | Rank | @ | Dallas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spread | -5 | ||
| 21.0 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 22.9 | 13 | Points/Gm | 24.0 | 11 |
| 21.0 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 22.2 | 17 |
| 64.2 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 20 |
| 64.9 | 25 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 16 |
| 39.7% | 23 | Rush% | 47.8% | 4 |
| 60.3% | 10 | Pass% | 52.2% | 29 |
| 42.8% | 17 | Opp. Rush % | 39.8% | 7 |
| 57.2% | 16 | Opp. Pass % | 60.2% | 26 |
- 88.2 percent (30-of-34) of the Seattle offensive touchdowns have been passing, the highest rate in the league.
- 78.8 percent (26-of-33) of the offensive touchdowns allowed by Dallas have been passing, 30th in the league.
- Opposing wide receivers have scored 59.4 percent (19-of-32) of the touchdowns scored by skill players against the Cowboys, the highest share in the league.
- Jimmy Graham has received just 11.9 percent of the team targets over the past four weeks after receiving 19.3 percent on the season prior.
- Dak Prescott had single-digit passing points in four of his six games with Ezekiel Elliott suspended while averaging 8.6 passing points per game over that span.
- Prior to the suspension, Prescott had single-digit passing points in just one of his first eight games while averaging 16.1 per game over that timeframe.
- Seattle has allowed a 4.9 percent touchdown rate to opposing passers over their past five games after allowing a 3.1 percent touchdown rate prior.
- Dez Bryant has failed to reach 100-yards receiving in 21 consecutive games played, matching the longest such streak of his career.
Trust: Ezekiel Elliott (he’s not returning from injury and supposedly in even better shape than when he left based on the Apollo Creed running on the beach photos making the rounds while the Seattle defense has allowed 225 and 176 yards from scrimmage to the past two backfields they have faced), Russell Wilson (his first hiccup in two months was ill-timed, but everything that could go wrong did while the Cowboys have allowed multiple touchdown passes in six of their past seven games)
Bust: Dak Prescott (the matchup is not as daunting with the Seattle defense still missing key pieces, but it’s hard to expect the light just switching completely back on for Prescott solely based on the return of Elliott after being the QB17 or lower in five of his past six games, especially with his pass catchers not being trustworthy options and Tyron Smith expected to be out or limited), Jason Witten (there’s not much of a floor or ceiling to latch onto he’s been the TE14 or lower in nine of his past 12 games regardless of matchup with just one reception in six of those games), Dez Bryant (it’s hard to elevate him above WR3 expectations as he now has just 21 targets over his past four games with three or fewer catches in three of those games), Mike Davis (he’s had one game in which he was higher than RB36 while running backs are not finding the end zone against the Cowboys since they are allowing so many passing scores), Jimmy Graham (you just have to keep pushing him out given the tight end landscape, but he’s had fewer than 40 yards in nine games while Dallas has allowed just four TE1 weeks on the season), Paul Richardson/Tyler Lockett (you can play either as a desperation target as no team allows wide receivers to score at a higher rate than the Cowboys, but without a touchdown, each have bottomless floors)
Reasonable Return: Doug Baldwin (he’s had more than three receptions in just two of his past six games, but still has 70 yards or a touchdown in six of his past nine games while the Cowboys have struggled the most from lead receivers who primarily are involved in the slot)
Giants @ Cardinals
| NY Giants | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spread | -4 | ||
| 18.0 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 16.3 | 30 | Points/Gm | 17.6 | 27 |
| 25.4 | 28 | Points All./Gm | 24.1 | 24 |
| 63.9 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 66.2 | 6 |
| 66.6 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 14 |
| 36.9% | 30 | Rush% | 37.7% | 26 |
| 63.1% | 3 | Pass% | 62.4% | 7 |
| 45.2% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 41.1% | 10 |
| 54.8% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 58.9% | 23 |
- The Giants allow 2.8 offensive touchdowns per game, the most in the league.
- Arizona has scored a touchdown on just 12.9 percent of their possessions, tied with the Colts for the lowest rate in the league.
- Arizona is last in the league in touchdown rate on red zone opportunities (38.6 percent). League average outside of them is 54.7 percent.
- Eli Manning is fourth in the league in completions per game (24.2), but ranks 45th in yards per completion (9.8).
- Since their Week 8 bye, the Cardinals are allowing 185.8 yards passing per game to opposing passers (10th) and just 74 yards rushing per game (fifth).
- Larry Fitzgerald‘s target share per quarterback this season has been 24.1 percent from Carson Palmer, 26.6 percent from Blaine Gabbert and 28.1 percent from Drew Stanton.
- Evan Engram leads all tight ends in routes run per game (34.8) for all tight ends per Pro Football Focus.
Bust: Eli Manning (looking for him to repeat last week’s performance on the road with the way the Cardinals have played since their bye is a lot to ask for), NYG RBs (Wayne Gallman once again out-snapped Orleans Darkwa, but Darkwa got the goal line the opportunity while Arizona is fifth in rushing points allowed to opposing backfields), Drew Stanton (he’s more of a punt option in DFS that can hit value at cost than a true streaming choice in league play as the Giants are an inflating matchup, but Stanton was in the back half of scoring in each of his first two starts with one of those being an extremely favorable draw against the 49ers), Ricky Seals-Jones (you can always throw a worse dart than targeting a tight end facing the Giants as they’ve allowed a league-high 13 touchdowns to the position, but his usage did not move at all with Jermaine Gresham out last week as he ran just 12 routes and Gabbert is out from center, who was the one targeting Seal-Jones heavily)
Reasonable Return: Sterling Shepard (he’s always a threat to get jammed with targets given the state of this offense and runs 83 percent of his routes from the slot, so he’ll avoid Patrick Peterson most of the afternoon, but anticipating another 50 plus pass attempts in totality from this passing game is in the lower range of outcomes), Evan Engram (Arizona has allowed just four TE1 weeks on the season and five or more receptions to just five players at the position, but his opportunity per game at his position is enough to keep him going through most matchups), Larry Fitzgerald (Stanton targeted Fitz the most of all Arizona passers so far while the Cardinals offense has been gutted since those early starts by Stanton), Elijhaa Penny (with Kerwynn Williams doubtful, he’ll get the bulk of carries and touchdown chances against an exploitable run defense that has allowed over 100-yards rushing in each of three games on the road since their bye)
Steelers @ Texans
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | Spread | 9.5 | ||
| 26.8 | Implied Total | 17.3 | ||
| 24.6 | 9 | Points/Gm | 22.8 | 14 |
| 19.9 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 27.1 | 32 |
| 66.8 | 4 | Plays/Gm | 65.9 | 8 |
| 58.9 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.9 | 7 |
| 40.8% | 18 | Rush% | 42.6% | 15 |
| 59.3% | 15 | Pass% | 57.4% | 18 |
| 40.0% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 44.1% | 22 |
| 60.0% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 55.9% | 11 |
- Le’Veon Bell has at least 20 touches in 13 straight games, the longest streak of his career and longest streak since DeMarco Murray went 21 games over 2013-2014.
- Antonio Brown has accounted for 41.1 percent of Ben Roethlisberger‘s passing output for fantasy, the second-highest rate a wide receiver has accounted for in relation to his passer’s scoring outside of DeAndre Hopkins (46.9 percent).
- 42.4 percent of the passing yardage allowed by the Texans has come on throws 15 yards or further downfield, 31st in the league.
- 45.3 percent of the passing yardage allowed by the Steelers has been posted by throws 15 yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the league.
- DeAndre Hopkins has 58 targets on throws 15 yards or further downfield, second in the league behind Antonio Brown (63).
- The Steelers have allowed 1.6 offensive touchdowns per game on the road, third on the league.
- Houston has rushed for 87.6 yards per game over the past seven weeks after rushing for 138.3 per game over their opening seven games.
Trust: Le’Veon Bell (the touch-machine will be leaned on even more to close the season with Brown out and the Houston defense has allowed 148.5 yards from scrimmage to opposing backfields over their past six games), DeAndre Hopkins (he has 14 or more points now in every game except for one despite an avalanche of awfulness thrown at him this season while the Steelers have been hurt downfield by opposing playmakers)
Bust: Jesse James (he’s a touchdown or bust option as he’s third on the team in red zone targets for the year), Eli Rogers (both of his targets last week were near the end zone, but he had just three top-30 scoring weeks all last year when he had a better opportunity in this passing game), T.J. Yates (he’s had one week in the top half of scoring in eight career starts), Lamar Miller (he just can’t be used despite the Steelers having issues defending the run since Ryan Shazier was lost for the year, but Miller has just 93 total yards over his past two games and was out-touched by Alfred Blue last week)
Reasonable Return: Ben Roethlisberger (the sample size for Roethlisberger without Brown is minuscule, but the matchup couldn’t be better to keep him in the QB1 ballpark as Houston ranks 31st in passing points allowed per attempt), Martavis Bryant (with a boost in target volume expected, he fits the mold of receiver that has given Houston the most trouble as they’ve struggled to defend targets downfield), JuJu Smith-Schuster (the last time a Pittsburgh receiver absent from the lineup he had a season-high 10 targets and he will now get more boundary opportunities with Eli Rogers moving into the slot role in three wide receiver sets)
Raiders @ Eagles
| Oakland | Rank | @ | Philadelphia | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spread | -9 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 28.0 | ||
| 20.1 | 22 | Points/Gm | 31.3 | 2 |
| 23.1 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 19.9 | 8 |
| 59.7 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 68.4 | 1 |
| 61.8 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.7 | 5 |
| 37.6% | 28 | Rush% | 45.4% | 8 |
| 62.4% | 5 | Pass% | 54.7% | 25 |
| 44.2% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 32.0% | 1 |
| 55.8% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 68.0% | 32 |
- Michael Crabtree has been targeted on 30.8 percent and 47.2 percent of his routes over his past two games with Amari Cooper injured after being targeted on 24.3 percent of his routes prior.
- Oakland averages just 5.4 red zone plays per game, fewest in the league.
- The Eagles allow just 48.3 rushing yards per game at home this season, the fewest in the league.
- The Eagles have allowed just 78 runs of five or more yards on the season, the fewest in the league. The next closest team (Denver) has allowed 101.
- The Raiders have allowed opponents to score on 42.5 percent of the drives, the highest rate in the league.
- The Eagles have scored on 44.8 percent of their possessions, third in the league.
- Nick Foles’ target distribution has been: Nelson Agholor (27.5 percent), Alshon Jeffery (23.5 percent) and Zach Ertz (19.6 percent).
- Foles has targeted running backs 9.8 percent of the times as opposed to 13.3 percent under Carson Wentz.
- Agholor has 24.1 percent of the team targets over the past three weeks after receiving 14.8 percent on the year prior. On those 32 targets, he’s caught 22 of them (with at least seven in each game) for 264 yards and two touchdowns.
Trust: Zach Ertz (his yardage floor has lowered as the season has worn on, but he had nine targets in his first game with Foles and draws another favorable matchup against an Oakland team that is 29th in receptions allowed to opposing tight ends), Michael Crabtree (the return of Cooper shaves his target totals down, but he’s still the healthiest option Oakland has and has the highest touchdown probability while the Eagles have allowed six touchdowns to opposing wideouts over their past three games)
Bust: Derek Carr (we just can’t continue to chase matchups with Carr at this stage as his last week higher than QB15 was back in Week 7 and he’s posted 4.8 yards per pass attempt over the past two weeks), Marshawn Lynch (he’s been a solid option over the past six weeks, but has been an RB2 or better in just two of his seven games without a touchdown, something he’s going to need here as just three backs have had 65 rushing yards in a game versus the Eagles), Jared Cook (he’s had more than two catches in just one of his past five games while the Eagles have allowed just four TE1 weeks on the season), Amari Cooper (coming off a severe ankle injury that has forced hin to miss multiple games and nearly the entire week of practice, he would only be a blind faith play and he’s given us little reason to have any faith)
Reasonable Return: Nick Foles (he posted a Wentz-ian stat line in his first start, but we should handle him still as a floor play streaming option as the Raiders have been improved the past month, allowing just three passing touchdowns and 221 passing yards per game over their past four games), Nelson Agholor (his role is expanding and he has team-high nine red zone targets over his past four games), Alshon Jeffery (he’s hit 70 yards just three times on the season, but has scored in six of his past seven games), Jay Ajayi (he’s still not getting the volume we’d like to move him out of flex status, but he has 80 and 89 total yards over the past two weeks and he’s a huge home favorite that can boost his stock against an Oakland team that has allowed 215 yards rushing to backfields over the past two weeks)
Context Key:
Trust = Player to outperform baseline expectations
Bust = Player to underperform baseline expectations
Reasonable Return = Baseline Play that won’t hurt you
**All Vegas Lines are taken from Yahoo listings on Tuesday Evenings
