Week 3 finally got our fantasy engines going. After we highlighted how slow of a start offenses had gotten off to the opening two weeks, 18 teams scored 26 or more points last week with 10 teams posting 30 or more points. After having 78 passing touchdowns total through two weeks, we had 62 passing scores this past week. Hopefully we continue to get more weeks like this going forward as teams find their stride.
As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.
Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 4 games with a PPR light…
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Bears @ Packers
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 19.3 | Implied Total | 26.3 | ||
| 62.3 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 69.0 | 3 |
| 60.3 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 55.3 | 3 |
| 39.0% | 19 | Rush% | 29.0% | 31 |
| 61.0% | 14 | Pass% | 71.0% | 2 |
| 40.9% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 45.2% | 25 |
| 59.1% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 54.8% | 8 |
- Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback to throw for 300-passing yards in every game this season.
- Rodgers has at least 40 pass attempts in three consecutive games for the third time in his career. All three times have come since the start of last season.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Ty Montgomery has run 110 pass routes on the season. The next closest running back is Le’Veon Bell with 88.
- Montgomery has the most carries in the league (41) without a carry of 10 or more yards on the season. 15.6 percent of his carries in 2016 went for 10 or more yards, fifth in the league.
- Martellus Bennett has the most targets in the league (21) without a single red zone target on the season.
- Jordan Howard had a touch on 68 percent of his snaps in Week 3 after receiving a touch on 42 percent of his snaps in Week 1 and 29 percent in Week 2. His season-high rate in 2016 was 61 percent.
Trust: Aaron Rodgers (the Bears have been a solid run defense now dating back to last season and the Packers have not run it well with all their injuries, forcing them to continue to open things up and rely on the arm of Rodgers to build a lead), Jordy Nelson (he’s now scored at least one touchdown in 13 of 19 games since the start of last year, the most in the league), Ty Montgomery (he’s playing a ton of snaps and receiving too much passing opportunity as a big home favorite to have major concern with his pedestrian output on the ground paired with the Bears being stout versus the run and he lit the Bears up with two top-10 scoring weeks a year ago with 126 and 163 yards from scrimmage)
Bust: Zach Miller (Packers have allowed tight ends to total just 9-53-0 and are allowing the fewest points per target to opposing tight ends), Mike Glennon (he’s yet to finish in the front half of quarterback scoring and the Packers have yet to allow a passer to finish higher than QB15), Bears WRs (the Packers are a secondary to target for wideouts, but Chicago has no individual piece for you to plug into lineups with any level of confidence), Martellus Bennett (has gotten off to a slow start while the Bears have allowed just eight catches to tight ends through three games)
Reasonable Return: Jordan Howard (the Bears will give him a ton of touches while script allows against a Green Bay defense that is still nursing multiple injuries on a short week), Tarik Cohen (he’s one of just seven backs with at least 100-yards both rushing and receiving and a weekly RB2/flex), Davante Adams (he’s topped 60-yards receiving in just four of his past 12 games played, but remains on the weekly WR3 radar with his touchdown ability attached to Rodgers), Randall Cobb (he’s practicing in full, so all signs point to him being active Thursday after catching 15 passes over his first wo games)
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Saints @ Dolphins (in London)
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 26.0 | Implied Total | 23.5 | ||
| 59.7 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 9 |
| 64.7 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.5 | 4 |
| 36.3% | 25 | Rush% | 35.9% | 27 |
| 63.7% | 8 | Pass% | 64.1% | 6 |
| 42.8% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 42.5% | 17 |
| 57.2% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 57.5% | 16 |
- New Orleans (9.39 yards) and Miami (9.35) both allow the two highest yards per attempt to opposing passers in the league.
- The Saints have allowed 15 red zone possessions, the most in the league.
- New Orleans is allowing 203.3 yards from scrimmage per game to opposing backfields, the most in the league.
- The Saints are one of just two teams (Seattle) to allow a top-12 scoring running back in each week of the season so far.
- Coby Fleener‘s target per route rate over the first three weeks has gone from 27.3 percent to 14.3 percent to 11.1 percent.
- Jarvis Landry has 38 percent of the Miami receptions, but just 28 percent of their receiving yards, the largest gap in team rates for all wide receivers.
- Miami is allowing 10.8 yards per target to opposing wide receivers, the most in the league.
Trust: Drew Brees (it’s a road game overseas, but the Miami pass defense was one of the worst in 2016 and that has rolled right over into this season), Michael Thomas (he’s had 89 and 87 receiving yards the past two weeks while his target share has risen each week and he gets the best matchup he’s had to start the season), Jay Ajayi (his Week 2 was one to forget, and we wish he was involved in the passing game to take advantage of New Orleans’ weaknesses in that area to opposing backfields, but he leads all backs in share of team carries and the Saints are still allowing the ninth-most rushing yards to opposing backfields), Jarvis Landry (the Saints have been beaten soundly out of the slot to start the season, whether it’s been P.J. Williams or Kenny Vaccaro)
Bust: Adrian Peterson (he had the most desirable script you could hope for last week for his role in the offense and managed his best scoring week of the season at RB47), Alvin Kamara (even with the late touchdown last week, he’s still extremely hard to use in lineups as he’s had just four and five touches in each of the past two weeks), Julius Thomas (has started his Miami tenure as the TE27 and TE25), Willie Snead (Miami has been vulnerable in the slot, but given Snead’s preseason usage and Sean Payton’s ominous comments about Snead’s playing time, he’s going to need a prove it week before you can plug him in with high confidence)
Reasonable Return: Jay Cutler (he was a massive disappointment last weekend, but there’s still reason to go back to him beating his seasonal output to date against a Saints defense that has allowed two top-3 scoring weeks out of the three weeks to start the season), Mark Ingram (it hasn’t been flashy caught in this timeshare, but Ingram has turned in three straight RB2/flex weeks inside of the top-30), Coby Fleener (his usage has dropped each week and Snead is back to take away more opportunity, but Miami has allowed 15 receptions to opposing tight ends in two games if you’re still really thin at the position), DeVante Parker (he turned last week’s lemon into lemonade over the final two minutes of action while the passing game should rebound against a secondary that only slowed a depleted Carolina pass catching group), Ted Ginn (another #RevengeGame for those into narratives, but Miami is exploitable with speed receivers vertically as Robby Anderson showed a week ago), Kenny Stills (he’s not quite as touchdown or bust as Ginn as he’s had 15 targets through two games, but he’s had more than four catches in just three games since the start of last season)
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Panthers @ Patriots
| Carolina | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spread | -10 | ||
| 19.3 | Implied Total | 29.3 | ||
| 62.7 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 68.7 | 5 |
| 54.0 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.0 | 24 |
| 46.8% | 8 | Rush% | 41.8% | 16 |
| 53.2% | 25 | Pass% | 58.3% | 17 |
| 40.1% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 39.0% | 11 |
| 59.9% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 61.0% | 22 |
- 29.7 percent of Tom Brady‘s pass attempts have been 15 yards or further downfield, the highest of all quarterbacks in the league.
- 17.4 percent of his passes in 2016 were that far downfield, which ranked 19th for all quarterbacks.
- 87.5 percent of Brandin Cooks’ receiving yardage has come on those throws downfield, the highest rate for all wide receivers in the league.
- New England is the only team in the league to allow a 300-yard passer in all three weeks this season. It’s the first they’ve allowed three consecutive 300-yard passers since Weeks 10-12, 2012.
- Cam Newton has finished as a top-12 scoring quarterback in just two of his past 13 games played and the QB17 or lower in 10 of those games, including all three this season.
- New England has allowed four touchdowns from outside of the red zone already in 2017 --tied with Seattle for the most in the league-- after allowing a league-low four all of 2016.
- Christian McCaffrey has 29.7 percent of the Carolina receiving yardage, the highest rate for any running back.
- 89.6 percent of the rushing attempts against the Patriots have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.
Trust: Tom Brady (he’s come back from his Week 1 letdown to throw for 825 yards and eight touchdowns over the past two weeks and New England should struggle to run the ball again here), Rob Gronkowski (he leads the team in targets and has paced the position in yardage in each of the past two weeks), Christian McCaffrey (he’s just about all the Panthers have left on offense and the Patriots have had trouble covering backs out of the backfield, allowing the second-most receiving yards to backs to start the season)
Bust: Cam Newton (as poor as New England has been to start the year, Newton’s schedule to date has been just as favorable as you could wish and he’s steadily let down. Now with Greg Olsen out long-term and Kelvin Benjamin hobbled for the short term, the cupboard is getting scarce), Jonathan Stewart (the game script should force Stewart out of success in a similar fashion as it did last week), Danny Amendola (you can play him as a flex option, but he has run just 15 and 23 routes in his two games played, which makes his floor inherently the lowest of all the pass catchers here), Mike Gillislee (he’s always a threat to score a touchdown, but has yet to catch a pass and averaging 3.2 yards per carry while the Panthers have allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards)
Reasonable Return: Devin Funchess (he’s received 17 targets over the past two weeks, but has just been flex worthy those weeks), Brandin Cooks/Chris Hogan (you just keep plugging each into lineups every week no matter the matchup, knowing there will be lows by default along the way, but the highs involve multiple scoring opportunities in a given week), James White (he should rebound in the flex against a Carolina team that has allowed 22 receptions to backs, the fourth most on the season), Kelvin Benjamin (keep an eye on his availability for practice this week as he should run into target volume by default if he’s active)
Jaguars @ Jets
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 21.3 | Implied Total | 18.3 | ||
| 63.0 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 55.7 | 31 |
| 62.3 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 20 |
| 52.4% | 3 | Rush% | 44.3% | 12 |
| 47.6% | 30 | Pass% | 55.7% | 21 |
| 44.9% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 44.2% | 21 |
| 55.1% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 55.8% | 12 |
- After allowing the third-lowest yards per attempt in 2016 (6.6 Y/A), Jacksonville is allowing a league-low 4.9 Y/A to start the season.
- The Jets have reached the red zone just five times, the fewest in the league.
- 42 percent of the Jaguars’ offensive yardage has been gained through rushing, the third highest rate in the league.
- Jacksonville has 99 rushing attempts on the season, tied for the league lead. It’s the most rushing attempts they’ve had through three games since 2011.
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins played 76 percent of the New York snaps Week 3, matching the team lead in targets with six (27 percent of the team total).
- 40 percent of the receiving yardage against Jacksonville has been put up by tight ends, the highest rate in the league.
- Jermaine Kearse‘s target per route rate has gone from 23.7 percent to 17.2 percent to 13 percent over the opening three weeks.
Trust: Leonard Fournette (he’s been the RB14 or better in all three games of the season against three top-10 run defenses as his volume and scoring potential are just as present here as they’ve been all season)
Bust: Josh McCown (he’s been the QB22 in two of his three games while Jacksonville hasn’t allowed a passer over QB19 so far on the season), Jermaine Kearse/Robby Anderson (we don’t force perimeter receivers against the Jaguars unless they’re elite talents, something neither of the Jets’ wideouts are)
Reasonable Return: Blake Bortles (we can’t count on another four touchdowns and he’s been under 250 passing yards in all three games this year, but the Jets are still a target, allowing 15 passing points per game to quarterbacks to start the year), Marqise Lee (he’s received 19 targets the past two weeks, but remains a low ceiling option as he’ll draw Morris Claiborne the most of the Jacksonville receivers), Allen Hurns (he’s the primary slot receiver, which means he’ll have the most favorable matchup and has scored in each of the past two games, but is still more of a flex play at best), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (his usage was high tied for the team lead a week ago the Jaguars funnel targets inwards since they are so good on the outside), Bilal Powell (with Matt Forte now out, Powell gets a small runway, albeit in a tough matchup. Over the final four games in 2016 with Forte hurt, Powell was a top-10 scorer in three times, averaging 74 percent of the snaps and 51 percent of the team touches)
Titans @ Texans
| Tennessee | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spread | 0 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 64.7 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 66 | 7 |
| 65.3 | 25 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.7 | 9 |
| 47.4% | 6 | Rush% | 45.5% | 10 |
| 52.6% | 27 | Pass% | 54.6% | 23 |
| 38.8% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 45.6% | 26 |
| 61.2% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 54.4% | 7 |
- Just 6.5 percent of Houston’s offensive plays have come from inside of the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.
- Just one of Lamar Miller‘s 49 carries have come from inside of the red zone and none from inside of the 10-yard line.
- Miller’s share of the team rushing attempts has gone from 73.9 percent to 51.4 percent to 43.8 percent per game this season.
- After allowing a league-high 12 WR1 scoring weeks in 2016, the Titans are the only team to allow a top-12 scoring week to an opposing wide receiver in every week this season.
- DeAndre Hopkins averages 102 receiving yards per game versus the Titans in eight meetings, his highest average versus an opponent he’s faced multiple times.
- Over his 11 games, Rishard Matthews has averaged 27.7 percent of the Tennessee targets and 71.7 receiving yards per game.
Trust: DeAndre Hopkins (he’s the only receiver with at least seven catches in every game this season and even with new personnel, Tennessee’s secondary has still been fruitful for wide receivers)
Bust: Eric Decker (he’s struggled early on as he’s started the year as the WR71, WR64 and WR58. We need something tangible before using him), Delanie Walker (since joining the Titans, he’s been a TE1 in just two of eight games versus Houston while reaching 40 yards just twice with a high of 62), Lamar Miller (his rushing usage is decreasing while not getting set up with scoring chances and Tennessee has allowed fewer rushing yards in each game this season than the week prior), Will Fuller (the matchup is right if he’s active, but if you’ve been a follower of this column in the past, you know I’m hesitant to use most players coming off long injury layoffs)
Reasonable Return: Marcus Mariota (he’s still reliant on touchdowns to overcome his 232 passing yards per game and on the road versus a formidable pass defense, but has added 25 or more rushing yards in each week), Rishard Matthews (he’s steadily been the best passing option and with Corey Davis still not healthy and Eric Decker struggling to add anything dynamic), Deshaun Watson (his legs are going to keep in play for fantasy points weekly as he’s scored 17.7 and 20.1 points in each of his starts while Tennessee has allowed two top-10 scorers and 25 plus rushing yards to two of three quarterbacks), DeMarco Murray (he played 48 snaps to 30 for Derrick Henry in a week where he looked questionable to play at all, proving this is still his backfield, but the matchup isn’t strong for a ceiling week against a Houston team that has allowed one back to finish higher than RB40), Ryan Griffin (someone has to get targets outside of Hopkins and Griffin had 18 percent of the looks a week ago. The Titans have allowed at least five receptions to two of the three lead tight ends they’ve faced)
Steelers @ Ravens
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 23.3 | Implied Total | 20.8 | ||
| 60.7 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 60.7 | 20 |
| 61.3 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.0 | 22 |
| 36.3% | 26 | Rush% | 54.4% | 1 |
| 63.7% | 7 | Pass% | 45.6% | 32 |
| 45.1% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 40.6% | 15 |
| 54.9% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 59.4% | 18 |
- In nine career games at Baltimore, Ben Roethlisberger has never finished higher than QB12, totaling nine touchdown passes with 12 interceptions, averaging 236.6 passing yards per game with no 300-yard passing games or games with more than two touchdown passes.
- Antonio Brown is the only wide receiver to be targeted on at least 25 percent of his routes in all three weeks this season.
- Le’Veon Bell has 48.2 percent of the Pittsburgh touches, but just 24.9 percent of the team yardage, the largest gap in team touch rate to yardage rate in the league.
- Joe Flacco averages 10.8 passing yards per possession, the fewest in the league.
- Flacco averages 5.7 yards per depth of target, the lowest in the league.
- Ravens’ wide receivers have 13 receptions for 132 yards total on the season, league-lows for the position.
- The Steelers have faced just 12.7 targets per game to opposing wide receivers, the fewest in the league.
Trust: Antonio Brown (he’s yet to have a 100-yard game in his career in Baltimore, but has seven or more catches in each of his past three games there while he’s the only player to receive double-digit targets in every game this season)
Bust: Ben Roethlisberger (he’s steadily struggled in Baltimore for his career and has now been a QB1 in just two of his past 20 early start games on the road), Martavis Bryant (he’s a threat to score always, but has yet to catch more than three passes in a game and is tied to ceiling performances from Roethlisberger), Jesse James (after scoring two touchdowns Week 1, James has been the TE23 and TE28), Joe Flacco (he’s thrown an interception in nine straight games, the longest streak in the league and has been in the bottom half of weekly scoring in every game this season), Jeremy Maclin (when he doesn’t score, you see how low the floor is and the Steelers have allowed the fewest touchdowns to wide receivers since the start of last year), Ben Watson (the highest a tight end has finished against the Steelers is TE15 and this is a spot where we just have faith in Flacco), Ravens RBs (the rotation between Terrance West, Buck Allen and Alex Collins has everyone on pause for setting lineups)
Reasonable Return: Le’Veon Bell (he’s yet to get going on the ground, nor has reach 100-yards from scrimmage in a game while Baltimore has allowed one RB1 scoring week at home since the start of last season)
Bengals @ Browns
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 18.5 | ||
| 60.0 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 65.7 | 8 |
| 62.3 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.7 | 13 |
| 42.2% | 15 | Rush% | 34.0% | 29 |
| 57.8% | 18 | Pass% | 66.0% | 4 |
| 50.3% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 46.0% | 27 |
| 49.7% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 54.1% | 6 |
- After trailing for a league-high 72.9 percent of their snaps in 2016, the Browns have trailed for a league-high 82.1 percent of their snaps so far in 2017.
- Cleveland is the only team in the league that has trailed for every offensive snap in the second half so far, this season.
- The Browns have the most turnovers in the league with nine, the most they’ve had through three weeks since 2009.
- DeShone Kizer averages .221 passing points per attempt, last for all quarterbacks that have played at least one complete game on the season.
- 48.7 percent of Kizer’s fantasy output has stemmed from rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- Andy Dalton has been a fantasy QB1 in weekly scoring in four consecutive starts versus Cleveland, throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in those games.
- After playing 30.4 percent of the team snaps and handling 25.6 percent of the team touches through two weeks, Joe Mixon played 55.7 percent of the snaps and had 41.2 percent of the touches last week.
Trust: A.J. Green (he got on track last week and gets another favorable outlook this week against a Cleveland team that has already allowed over 150-yards to two lead receivers this season)
Bust: DeShone Kizer (the Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks on the season, so Kizer can balance out his turnover potential with his legs, but the matchup is not something to pursue from a passing stance against a defense that has surrendered the fourth fewest passing yards), Isaiah Crowell (he hasn’t finished higher than RB29 on the year as the script has been dreadful and he’s averaging just 2.9 yards per carry when he has touched the ball), CLE WRs (Kenny Britt had a score a week ago, but turned 10 targets into just three receptions)
Reasonable Return: Andy Dalton (last week was a step in the right direction as Dalton improved his completion rate, yards per attempt and touchdown rate exponentially, but still turned in a QB19 scoring week), Joe Mixon (Bill Lazor gave Mixon the usage fantasy owners had been clamoring for and if that usage continues, then Mixon is a weekly RB2 option), Duke Johnson (he’s hit double-digit scoring in each of the past two games, drawing 13 targets with 184 yards from scrimmage while opposing teams target running backs 30.1 percent of the time versus the Bengals, the fourth highest rate in the league)
Lions @ Vikings
| Detroit | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 63.7 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 12 |
| 62.3 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.7 | 6 |
| 40.8% | 18 | Rush% | 45.1% | 11 |
| 59.2% | 15 | Pass% | 54.9% | 22 |
| 34.2% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 34.6% | 4 |
| 65.8% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 65.4% | 29 |
- Stefon Diggs leads the league with nine receptions 15 yards or further downfield, while Adam Thielen is tied for second in the league with seven.
- Detroit has allowed just 4-of-19 passes (21.1 percent) 15 yards or further downfield to be completed, the lowest rate in the league.
- Theo Riddick (0.30) and Ameer Abdullah (0.32) rank 49th and 47th out of 49 backs with double-digit carries in yards before contact.
- The Vikings are allowing 13.3 points per game to opposing backfields, the fewest in the league.
- Eric Ebron averages 4.0 yards per target, the lowest rate for all tight ends with double-digit targets on the season.
- Matthew Stafford has finished as the QB17, QB23, QB16, QB11, QB24 and QB20 against Minnesota since Mike Zimmer joined the organization.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Golden Tate is running 82.9 percent of his routes from the slot this season after 26.9 percent in 2016.
- Dalvin Cook‘s 71 touches through three games are just two shy of Adrian Peterson‘s 73 to start his rookie season.
Trust: Dalvin Cook (more touchdowns will eventually come with the usage he’s getting as he has 25 or more touches in two of the three games with at least 15 percent of the team targets in those games)
Bust: Matthew Stafford (his history against Zimmer led defenses has been underwhelming while he’s on the road), Ameer Abdullah (he’s had 17 touches in each game so far, but has turned in a high week of just RB27), Marvin Jones (he has just six catches through three weeks and this is another week where Jones is left on the boundary to contend with a top shelf cornerback), Theo Riddick (his floor has not consistently been worthy to pursue to start the year, finishing as the RB39 and RB36 the past two weeks), Case Keenum (all three quarterbacks to face Detroit exactly at QB23 to start the year, with none hitting 15 fantasy points), Kenny Golladay (even though he could make a play against Trae Waynes, his targets per route have declined in every game and is just a blind dart if chasing production still)
Reasonable Return: Golden Tate (it’s unlikely that he will have to lock up with Xavier Rhodes while in the slot as Rhodes has played just four slot snaps over the past four meetings versus Detroit and has played just three snaps there all season), Stefon Diggs (the truth of his weekly expectancy lies somewhere between Week 2 and Week 3 while Case Keenum is playing as Keenum won’t have a ton of spike weeks like last week and he’ll contend with Darius Slay on the perimeter), Adam Thielen (two of the three top scoring games against Detroit so far have come from slot receivers), Kyle Rudolph(Keenum has targeted him just 11.8 percent of the time, but this game sets up for that increase as targets should funnel towards the middle of the field), Eric Ebron (targets could funnel his way inside naturally as there aren’t many opportunities to be had on the boundaries and the Vikings have allowed four plus catches to each lead tight end they’ve faced with a pair of touchdowns, but Ebron has to start being more effective or those targets or going to start going somewhere else)
Rams @ Cowboys
| LA Rams | Rank | @ | Dallas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 20 | Implied Total | 27 | ||
| 57.7 | 28 | Plays/Gm | 60.7 | 18 |
| 63.7 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.0 | 30 |
| 50.3% | 4 | Rush% | 39.0% | 20 |
| 49.7% | 29 | Pass% | 61.0% | 13 |
| 50.3% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 35.8% | 6 |
| 49.7% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 64.2% | 27 |
- No team has faced a higher percentage of plays in the red zone (18.9 percent) than the Rams on the season.
- Dallas has scored on 36.4 percent of their possessions (12-of-33), 16th in the league, after scoring on 46.3 percent of their drives in 2-16, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
- Just 5.5 percent (3-of-55) of Ezekiel Elliott‘s carries have gone for 10 or more yards, 35th of all running backs with 20 or more carries. In 2016, 14.9 percent of his runs gained 10 or more yards, the fifth highest rate.
- On offense, the Rams have run ball a league-high 65.6 percent of the time in the red zone. League average is 44.4 percent.
- Todd Gurley has 43.9 fantasy points in the red zone this season, which leads the league. He had 47.5 fantasy points in the red zone all of 2016.
- Gurley ranks second at the position in rushing points (48.1) and second in receiving points (39).
- 29.3 percent (17-of-58) of Jared Goff‘s completions have gained 20 or more yards, the second-highest rate in the league. Just 10.7 percent (12-of-112) of his completions in 2016 gained 20 or more yards.
Trust: Todd Gurley (Dallas is only 14th in rushing yardage surrendered to running backs, but that is cloaked in early matchups versus the Giants and Cardinals around allowing 178 yards on the ground to Denver. We can’t anticipate those numbers from Gurley here, but with volume and receiving opportunity, he’s still a strong play here despite being a road dog), Ezekiel Elliott (he’s yet to get it really ramped up on the ground, but in what may be his last game, he draws a team that has allowed 229 and 113 rushing yards the past two weeks), Dak Prescott (he came out of the first real scheduling gauntlet of his career looking great, posting QB1 totals in each of the opening three games against high-end passing defenses)
Bust: Jason Witten (while this game won’t be worse than his one-catch effort last week, the Rams have not allowed a tight end to finish higher than TE15 after allowing just three TE1 scoring weeks all of 2016), Cooper Kupp (he’s the type of receiver that needs far more volume than he’s getting to be reliable for fantasy as he’s been the WR61 and the WR81 in each of the past two weeks and hasn’t had more than six targets in any game on the season), Robert Woods (I’d wager that last week’s 6-108 on just seven targets was more of an anomaly than a weekly occurrence as last week was just the fourth time in 60 career games that Woods has hit 100-yards in a game)
Reasonable Return: Dez Bryant (even with the touchdowns, his start went as expected with WR58 and WR51 scoring weeks in two of the three games. While Trumaine Johnson is a good cornerback, facing him will feel like a Sandals Resort compared to what Bryant has faced the opening three weeks), Sammy Watkins (he’s the one Ram’s WR I would have a level of confidence in as he showed last week that he still has a high ceiling, but it also came on just seven targets, which was tied with two other players on the team, meaning he still has to do a lot on marginal opportunity), Jared Goff (his best games have come against soft opponents, but Dallas is no strong adversary themselves, allowing 20 plus fantasy points to Trevor Siemian and Carson Palmer the past two weeks)
Bills @ Falcons
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | Spread | -9.5 | ||
| 19.5 | Implied Total | 29.0 | ||
| 62.0 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 59.3 | 25 |
| 62.3 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.7 | 26 |
| 52.7% | 2 | Rush% | 43.8% | 13 |
| 47.3% | 31 | Pass% | 56.2% | 20 |
| 35.3% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 26.9% | 1 |
| 64.7% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 73.1% | 32 |
- The Bills have not allowed a passing touchdown through three games for the first time in franchise history.
The Falcons are the only team remaining in the NFL that has yet to run an offensive play while trailing in a game. - Buffalo is the only team other than Atlanta that has yet to run an offensive play while trailing by two possessions in a game.
- Atlanta faces 45 pass attempts per game, the most in the league. Tyrod Taylor averages 26.3 attempts per game, 31st for all quarterbacks.
- Just 8.9 percent of the pass attempts versus the Falcons have been throws 15 yards or further downfield, the lowest in the league. League average is 17.3 percent.
- 12.7 percent of Taylor’s pass attempts have been downfield attempts, 24th in the league. He ranked 10th in the league in 2016 at 20.4 percent downfield attempts.
- LeSean McCoy is averaging 1.17 yards before contact per carry so far on the season, 32nd for all running backs. He ranked first among running backs in average yards before contact (2.99) per carry in 2016.
- 41.5 percent of the runs against Atlanta have gained five or more yards, the highest rate in the league, but they have faced the third-fewest runs in the league (53).
Trust: Devonta Freeman (a favorable spot as a big home dog, his touches and total yardage have gone up in every game this season), Julio Jones (we’re already dealing with our annual “Julio is dealing with…”, but if the practice news is positive towards the end of the week, his targets have risen in each game and Buffalo has allowed 6-77 and 6-98 to lead receivers over the past two weeks)
Bust: Austin Hooper (he hasn’t had more than two targets in any game so far), Taylor Gabriel (you can chase a splash play, but that’s all you’re doing as he’s never topped six targets in any game with Atlanta and had more than three receptions in just four of those 16 games), Bills WRs (as a group, they’ve combined for just 17 receptions through three games)
Reasonable Return: Matt Ryan (Buffalo has yet to face a quarterback on Ryan’s level and while I expect Ryan to end the Bills’ streak of keeping passers out the end zone, Ryan himself has left a lot on the table, finishing as the QB10, QB15 and QB23 to start the year), Tevin Coleman (he’s had just 17 percent of the team touches in each of the past two weeks, but has maintained his flex floor, finishing as a top-30 back in every game this season), Mohamed Sanu (there’s almost no ceiling here, but he’s managed to stay on the radar as a WR3 in every game to start the season), Tyrod Taylor (he has 17 or more points in two of his three games while Atlanta has allowed 16 plus points to each of the past two quarterbacks they’ve faced), Charles Clay (he’s hit 50-yards just once so far, but ranks eighth in tight end targets and has scored in five of past seven games dating back to last year), LeSean McCoy (he’s carried 26 times for 30 yards the past two weeks, but has 13 catches in those games and five or more catches in every game this season to support a floor if the yardage doesn’t rebound)
Eagles @ Chargers
| Philadelphia | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spread | 0 | ||
| 23.8 | Implied Total | 23.8 | ||
| 69.0 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 59.3 | 24 |
| 58.7 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 15 |
| 38.7% | 22 | Rush% | 34.8% | 28 |
| 61.4% | 11 | Pass% | 65.2% | 5 |
| 30.1% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 49.7% | 28 |
| 69.9% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 50.3% | 5 |
- Zach Ertz has 29.2 percent of the Philadelphia receptions, the highest team rate for a tight end in the league.
- Wendell Smallwood played 43 snaps (57 percent of the team total) after playing just 29 snaps over the opening two weeks of the season.
- Philip Rivers has now thrown multiple interceptions in seven games since the start of last season, tied with Eli Manning for the most in the league.
- After allowing opposing wideouts to total 11 receptions for 272 yards and no touchdowns through two weeks, Philadelphia surrendered 25 catches for 284 yards and three scores to Giants’ wide receivers in Week 3.
- 80.1 percent of the fantasy points put up by backfields against Los Angeles have been on the ground, the highest rate in the league.
Trust: Philip Rivers (his down weeks are typically identifiable and this week the arrow is pointing up against a defense that has allowed the QB10 and the QB11 the past two weeks and will be without their best pass rusher), Melvin Gordon (he’s a little banged up, but the floor has been stable, finishing as a top-15 back all three weeks), Keenan Allen (he’s had nine or more targets in all three games and the Eagles secondary is dealing with injuries still on the back end), Zach Ertz (it’s hard to see Ertz go the route of Travis Kelce versus the Chargers last in which he saw just one target as Ertz has 28 targets through three games with five or more catches in all three games)
Bust: Antonio Gates/Hunter Henry (they are splitting opportunity with one game of more than two receptions and one week over a TE18 to start the year between them), Alshon Jeffery (he’s been a WR4 in each of his two tougher matchups and is going to be matched up with Casey Hayward this week)
Reasonable Return: Travis Benjamin (he has quietly been a top-25 WR in two of his three games and had eight targets a week ago. In a matchup where I’m expecting Rivers to do well, he’s an interesting long play in leagues), Tyrell Williams (he has just 16 percent of the team targets on the season with a high week of WR37, but apparently I have a problem as I am back chasing his ghost of fantasy production in a matchup that saw the Eagles resurrect Brandon Marshall to WR3 status), Carson Wentz (this matchup is better than the tough draw he had a week ago, but is still across the country against a pass defense that has allowed the QB18 and QB21 the past two weeks), Wendell Smallwood (he joins a large bucket of RB2/flex options that doesn’t carry much touchdown upside, but the matchup is positive against a Chargers team that has allowed 45 fantasy points to backs over the past two weeks), LeGarrette Blount (he’s also in that RB2/flex bucket with two top-24 scoring weeks on the season, but each of those came along with a touchdown, something you have to chase)
49ers @ Cardinals
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 18.3 | Implied Total | 25.8 | ||
| 58.7 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 69 | 1 |
| 67.3 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.3 | 11 |
| 38.1% | 23 | Rush% | 30.9% | 30 |
| 61.9% | 10 | Pass% | 69.1% | 3 |
| 53.0% | 32 | Opp. Rush % | 44.6% | 22 |
| 47.0% | 1 | Opp. Pass % | 55.4% | 11 |
- Carlos Hyde has 47.3 percent of the San Francisco touches, which is the third highest rate for a running back.
- Pierre Garcon has 39.9 percent of the San Francisco receiving yardage on 25.8 percent of the team receptions, the largest gap in team rates for all wide receivers.
- Carson Palmer has averaged 332.6 passing yards per game over five games versus the 49ers while with Arizona, but has thrown just seven touchdowns in those games and finished higher than QB14 just once.
- Larry Fitzgerald has finished as a top-10 scoring wide receiver in three of his past four games versus the 49ers, with at least six receptions and 60-receiving yards in each of those games.
- Arizona running backs have combined to rush 40 times for 119 yards (2.9 yards per carry) since David Johnson‘s injury.
Trust: Larry Fitzgerald (he already has games with 13 and 15 targets on the season, has torched the Niners recently and San Francisco just gave up a season-high games to multiple Rams wide receivers)
Bust: Chris Johnson (he’s carried 23 times and robotically run for 61 yards in his return to Arizona), Pierre Garcon (he doesn’t move inside to avoid Patrick Peterson, who is on the short list of guys we just don’t mess around with at all and we’ve already saw Garcon finish as WR69 in his previous tough assignment in Seattle), Brian Hoyer (he bounced back after a dreadful start to the season last week, but looking for a repeat of that performance on the road is a tough task when we expect his best receiving and rushing asset to be limited)
Reasonable Return: Carson Palmer (he’s rebounded from Week 1 solidly with QB12 and QB13 scoring weeks. The Cardinals are a one-dimensional offense right now that is favored, which means the points are going to have to come from the passing game), Jaron Brown (you can look at either J.J. Nelson or John Brown if he’s active for the big plays, but Jaron is the guy getting consistent snaps and targets if you want to attack an ancillary receiver here), Andre Ellington (he’s unlikely to get a full-time role, but played the most snaps a week ago on his way to an RB20 week and adds a positive element offense to earn more touches to warrant flex consideration), Carlos Hyde (Arizona is allowing just 2.8 yards per carry to opposing backs after leading the league in that category in 2016, but the touches and added receiving work should keep Hyde respectable), Marquise Goodwin (if there ever was a week for Goodwin to finally connect on a splash play, it would be this one with Garcon locked up with Peterson, but there are better home run options on the board this week in Stills and even Ginn)
Giants @ Buccaneers
| NY Giants | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 23.5 | ||
| 57.3 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 59 | 26 |
| 66.7 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.0 | 27 |
| 27.3% | 32 | Rush% | 36.4% | 24 |
| 72.7% | 1 | Pass% | 63.6% | 9 |
| 51.0% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 40.2% | 14 |
| 49.0% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 59.9% | 19 |
- Paul Perkins averages .21 rushing points per attempt, the fewest in the league.
- The Giants average 15.7 rushing attempts and 48.7 rushing yards per game, both are the fewest in the league.
- 84.1 percent of the yardage gained by the Giants has been via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- 81.9 percent of the yardage gained against Tampa Bay has been through the passing, the highest rate in the league.
- Tampa Bay is allowing 16.5 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers, the most in the league.
- The Giants are allowing a league-high 153.3 rushing yards per game after allowing 87.7 rushing yards per game in 2016 (second).
Trust: Odell Beckham (he’s back to full health and facing a secondary that just allowed 370 passing yards to Case Keenum)
Bust: Jameis Winston (he’s now been a QB1 in just three of his past 12 games with one week inside of the top-10 while facing a Giants defense allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game to opposing passers), Mike Evans (he trades a day with Xavier Rhodes for an afternoon with Janoris Jenkins as the Giants have allowed just three WR1 scorers since the start of last season and have not allowed Dez Bryant, Golden Tate or Alshon Jeffery to finish higher than WR48 to start the year), Giants RBs (they can’t run the ball and have one top-30 scoring week between the entire group through three games), DeSean Jackson (he hit in a spot where we expected him to a week ago and could benefit from Evans drawing such tight coverage, but the Giants have allowed opposing wideouts to score just once every 33.4 targets since the start of last season, the third-best rate in the league)
Reasonable Return: Eli Manning (you can’t fully trust him, but the Buccaneers defense is missing key pieces all over while having trouble defending the wide receiver position for fantasy purposes to start the year). Sterling Shepard/Brandon Marshall (both contributed over 14 points last week and Tampa Bay has already allowed four top-30 scoring receivers through two games played), Jacquizz Rodgers (the Giants have struggled to defend the run. Allowing Dallas to run for 128 yards Week 1 is one thing, but allowing 138 and 193 yards on the ground to the Lions and Eagles is something else), Cameron Brate (he’s run 41 pass routes to 30 for O.J. Howard while the Giants have allowed the second-most points to tight ends to start the season), Evan Engram (Tampa Bay has allowed two tight ends to finish inside of the top-10 since the start of last season, but with Lavonte David, Kwon Alexander and T.J. Ward all expected to be out, Engram’s matchup is much lighter than it looks on paper)
Raiders @ Broncos
| Oakland | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 55.3 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 69 | 4 |
| 60.3 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.7 | 12 |
| 41.6% | 17 | Rush% | 47.3% | 7 |
| 58.4% | 16 | Pass% | 52.7% | 26 |
| 44.2% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 37.3% | 9 |
| 55.8% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 62.7% | 24 |
- Derek Carr has finished as the QB17, QB29, QB22, QB23 and QB27 in five career starts versus the Broncos.
- In four games together versus Denver, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree average a combined 7.3 receptions for 72.3 yards per game with one total touchdown.
- Just 30.6 percent of the completions against Denver have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- Marshawn Lynch has played just 71 snaps (41 percent of the team total) through three weeks, which ranks 42nd at the position.
- Denver is allowing 59.7 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the league after allowing 130.3 per game in 2016 (28th).
- Just 29.2 percent of the fantasy output scored by opposing backfields against the Broncos has been rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust: Trevor Siemian (we highlighted that last week was a potential trap spot, but he’s back at home against an Oakland defense allowing 17.2 passing points per game)
Bust: Derek Carr (on the road against an opponent he’s never cracked the top half of scoring against), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree (Al you can do is hope that one of them finds Bradley Roby for a period to put up a big play), Marshawn Lynch (he’s not playing a lot of snaps and the Broncos have smothered the run, doing so in an impressive fashion, limiting Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott and LeSean McCoy)
Reasonable Return: Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (it’s a good spot for Siemian and this is the only place the ball is going as they’ve accounted for 54 percent of the team targets), Jared Cook (with the receivers expected to struggle to find space, Cook is the default passing game option and Denver has allowed the fifth-most points to opposing tight ends to start the year), C.J. Anderson (outside of his monster Week 2, he’s finished as the RB28 and the RB44 and had equal touches to Jamaal Charles a week ago)
Colts @ Seahawks
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | Seattle | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Spread | -14 | ||
| 13.8 | Implied Total | 27.8 | ||
| 60.7 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 66.3 | 6 |
| 66.0 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 19 |
| 48.9% | 5 | Rush% | 38.7% | 21 |
| 51.1% | 28 | Pass% | 61.3% | 12 |
| 39.9% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 43.4% | 19 |
| 60.1% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 56.6% | 14 |
- Seattle is allowing 5.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs, the highest in the league.
- The Colts are averaging 2.7 yards per carry, the lowest rate in the league.
- Seattle has punted on 63.6 percent of their possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- Seattle’s 290 rushing yards are their fewest through three games since 2011.
- Chris Carson has 69.4 percent (34-of-49) of the Seattle backfield touches the past two weeks.
- Jimmy Graham averages .68 fantasy points per targets, the fewest of all tight ends with double-digit targets.
- Only Baltimore (14.2 points) has allowed fewer points at home than Seattle (16.1) since the start of last season.
Trust: Russell Wilson (his big game last week was aided by negative game script, but gave us something to feel good about moving forward while this is set up for a big get right game in positive conditions as the Colts are allowing a league-high 14.2 yards per completion)
Bust: T.Y. Hilton (his huge game last week will tough to duplicate in Seattle), Jacoby Brissett (his legs could buy him some points, and they’ll be needed), Frank Gore (it’s hard to buy Seattle continuing to struggle on defense in this spot while Gore has yet to hit 60-yards from scrimmage in a game this season), Donte Moncrief (he has converted just 5-of-15 targets and was actually benched for Kamar Aiken a week ago to start the game), Jack Doyle (the biggest letdown from Week 2 at the position, no tight end has finished higher than TE15 versus Seattle to start the year)
Reasonable Return: Jimmy Graham (he caught seven passes last week after catching just four through two weeks and could be the de facto lead option this week if Doug Baldwin is not ready to play), Chris Carson (the Colts have been solid versus the run so far, allowing 3.2 yards per carry to backfields, but as a home favorite that is getting the bulk of running back touches, he’s a locked in RB2 with upside), Paul Richardson (he’s scored in each of the past two weeks and if Baldwin is out, then gets a big bump), Tyler Lockett (his snaps have risen each week and if Baldwin is indeed inactive, is vertical option facing a secondary allowing the highest yards per reception and on top of that, will not see much of Vontae Davis the entire night), Doug Baldwin (leaving him for last here until we get more news on his availability and then I’ll update throughout the week, but make sure you have one of Richardson or Lockett on your roster if you’re counting on him since this is a late game)
Washington @ Chiefs
| Washington | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 21.3 | Implied Total | 28.3 | ||
| 64.7 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 55.7 | 30 |
| 54.0 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 70.3 | 32 |
| 46.4% | 9 | Rush% | 42.5% | 14 |
| 53.6% | 24 | Pass% | 57.5% | 19 |
| 36.4% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 37.0% | 8 |
| 63.6% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 63.0% | 25 |
- Alex Smith has thrown a touchdown pass once every 12 pass attempts to start the season, first in the league for all quarterbacks to play multiple games. For his career, Smith has thrown a touchdown once every 25.3 pass attempts.
- Kareem Hunt is the first rookie running back to have over 100-yards from scrimmage in the first three games of the year since Matt Forte in 2008.
- Hunt has accounted for 42.7 percent of the Kansas City yardage, the highest rate for a running back in the league. The next closest is Carlos Hyde at 33.2 percent.
- Kansas City has converted 75 percent of their red zone trips into touchdowns, the highest rate through three weeks.
- Washington has allowed 250 receiving yards to opposing tight ends, the most in the league.
- Just 43.6 percent of the receiving yardage posted against Washington has gone to wide receivers, the lowest rate in the league.
- Josh Doctson‘s snap rate has gone from 32 percent to 41 percent to 53 percent through three weeks.
- Chris Thompson has 17.3 percent of the Washington touches, the lowest rate for all backs currently in the top-12 scorers. The other 11 average 41.3 percent of their team touches.
- The Chiefs are allowing 13.7 yards per completion (31st in the league), but are allowing a league-low 50 percent completion rate.
Trust: Kareem Hunt (eventually he won’t score a touchdown and/or score 25 points in a week, but he’s in set and forget land), Travis Kelce (coming off just one target a week ago, Kelce draws a team that has allowed the most yardage to opposing tight ends)
Bust: Kirk Cousins (he got on track a week ago, but Kansas City has already held Tom Brady and Philip Rivers to weeks in the back half of scoring while on the road doesn’t inspire a high level of confidence), Tyreek Hill (he’s just a splash play away from hitting value against anyone, but Washington is allowing much at all to good wideouts, holding Alshon Jeffery, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins and Michael Crabtree all below WR45 and all with three or fewer receptions), Jordan Reed (his health is already an issue and the Chiefs have allowed just 10 receptions to opposing tight ends), Josh Doctson (he’s worth an add in leagues, but isn’t quite ready for a start), Rob Kelley (the Chiefs have been middle of the pack defending the run so far, but games with Washington as a large road underdog aren’t the spots to pursue Kelley’s value)
Reasonable Return: Alex Smith (he’s at home and has had at least 15 points in every week), Chris Thompson (even when his inevitable touchdown regression finally hits, he’s still an RB2/flex play at worst), Terrelle Pryor (I know nobody wants to play him after receiving just four targets in each of the past two games, but the Chiefs are allowing 55 percent of their receiving yards to the left side, the highest rate in the league and Pryor only runs 25 percent of his routes opposite of Marcus Peters), Jamison Crowder (even though the results have carried over to fantasy, his target share has gone up in each week and he won’t see any of Peters in the slot to keep the light on)
Context Key:
Trust = Player to outperform baseline expectations
Bust = Player to underperform baseline expectations
Reasonable Return = Baseline Play
**All Vegas Lines are taken from Yahoo listings on Tuesday Evenings
