We’ll wrap up our initial run through of notes and nuggets for each positon with a look at tight ends. If you’ve missed the breakdowns for wide receivers, running backs or quarterbacks, make sure to check those out. Top-12 scoring tight ends in PPR leagues combined to catch 873 passes for 10,384 yards in 2015, the highest marks since 2011. In the midst of all of that production, Rob Gronkowski still found himself at the top of the position once again. While Gronk has now finished as the top scoring tight end in three of the past five seasons (all seasons in which he missed one game or fewer), we’re going to focus more on guys outside of the league’s premier pass catching touchdown producer here.
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Jordan Reed’s Breakout
Gronk was the top scorer overall, but it was Reed who paced the position in PPR points per game (17.4). Reed was arguably the most important fantasy player in terms of closing championship runs, as not only was he the highest scoring tight end every week in Weeks 14-16, but over that span Reed ranked 9th, 13th and 1st in overall fantasy points including quarterbacks, totaling 25 catches for 333 yards and five touchdowns. That heavy end of season production accounted for 36.2 percent of Reed’s PPR points for the season.
Reed closed the season with nine weeks as a top-six fantasy tight end, the most for any tight end last year despite missing two games. It takes a near perfect storm to create a season as strong as Reed’s 2015 and he dominated in almost every rate measure you can think of. He caught a career high 76 percent of his targets and turned 7-of-11 targets from the 10-yard line and in into touchdowns. Reed was a massive target monster per opportunity as he was targeted on 28.6 percent of his routes, which led all NFL tight ends.
95 tight ends have seen 100 or more targets in a season since 2000. Reed’s 2.18 points per target in PPR leagues is the third highest mark for a season behind 2011 Rob Gronkowski and 2004 Antonio Gates. It was just the 9th time since 2000 that a tight end has averaged over two points per target. Of the other seven players (Gronk also joined this group last season), none came back and duplicated the feat, but all but one (Dallas Clark in 2010) still came back the next season and were top-five scorers at the position.
While expecting Reed to hold that type of efficiency per target, posting such a high touchdown conversion rate near the goal line, and maintaining that type of target frequency per route may be asking a lot given Washington’s offseason addition of another receiver, Reed can still counter any loss by seeing his overall usage rise, and there’s room to do so. Reed was just 18th in routes run for tight ends last season, below players such as Kyle Rudolph, Owen Daniels and Jacob Tamme.
I’m not concerned with any efficiency drop affecting Reed because there’s still room for his volume to swell. The problem with Reed now is a similar dilemma that we’re facing with Cam Newton’s 2015 breakout. Reed was a supreme value last season at the tail end of drafts and now is being priced near a top-40 pick at a position that most fantasy leagues only require you to start one. In one-tight end leagues, you’re affording a lot of opportunity cost investing in Reed (much like Newton or any quarterback) because you’re foregoing other high draft capital players at positions necessary for maximizing your roster due to required starting spots and in turn overall players required at those positions to meet the required man games it takes to fill those spots.
Reed may appear to be a value in terms of Value Based Drafting, but you have to account for the supply and demand of each position and where those created value baselines at each position fall in ADP. The current TE12 is being selected nearly two full rounds after the 36th receiver and running back, and over 50 picks after the RB24/WR24. We know what type of ceiling Reed is capable of, and with the recent inflation given to the wide receiver position for good reason, Reed looks attractive when round three meets round four. But even as a top-5 scorer at his position, there’s inherent risk when it comes to team building that now has to be accounted for in start-one tight end formats.
Gary Barnidge’s Late Career Breakout
In his 7th season in the NFL, Barnidge dwarfed his career totals with a 79 catch, 1,043 yard, nine touchdown season at age 30. Mislabeled as strictly an inline tight end, Barnidge was actually a strong athlete and versatile player entering the league who had failed to get a true opportunity to start his career. Opportunity is what he received in 2015, and he got it in spades. Per Pro Football Focus, Barnidge ran the most routes in the NFL last season (36.9 per game) for tight ends, 72 more than the next player, Ben Watson. That’s essentially two extra games worth of snaps in route. In context of Barnidge’s breakout versus Reed’s breakout above, Barnidge ran 203 more routes on the season than Reed did.
While Barnidge still stands to contend for the most targeted player on the Browns this season, that kind of usage may not roll over if Hue Jackson slows down the pace. Cleveland ran 664 passing plays with 606 attempts in 2015, while the highs for a Jackson-led offense have been 602 pass plays with a high of 555 attempts with the 2007 Falcons when Bobby Petrino slipped off into the night. Even if the Browns are terrible again, the volume of the offense should decline on Jackson’s watch. The other thing potentially working against Barnidge is if Josh McCown is not able to pass Robert Griffin III on the depth chart in training camp. A huge portion of Barnidge’s 2015 production was tied to McCown being under center.
| Gary Barnidge TGT | TGT | 16Pace | Rec | 16Pace | Catch % | ReYd | 16Pace | TD | 16Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 64 | 146.3 | 43 | 98.3 | 67.2% | 626 | 1430.9 | 6 | 13.7 |
| Other Browns QB | 61 | 108.4 | 36 | 64 | 59.1% | 417 | 741.3 | 3 | 5.3 |
Asking Griffin to be comparable to McCown isn’t asking for a lot, but it’s no guarantee, either. That lower floor isn’t overly attractive as a top-10 purchase as the Browns may start as many as three quarterbacks on the season given their expected struggles. If you land a tight end in the middle of those two split seasons, though, you’ll still have a weekly starter, so there’s potential value for Barnidge at his current ADP. The overall numbers may tell a story of Barnidge being more of a fringe Top-12 tight end, but I expect more volatility that sets him up as more of a streaming option than being a set and forget starter for the long haul.
Tyler Eifert: From Potential Trap to Value?
Before we found out about his ankle injury, Tyler Eifert was being selected in the opening five rounds, making him one of the biggest overvalues in drafts. In 2015, Eifert caught a touchdown once every 5.7 targets, the second best rate for a tight end in any season ever. Previous tight ends who have scored a touchdown on 25 percent or more of their receptions have suffered an average loss of five scores the following season. It’s easy to see where Eifert was going to see those scores dip, as he was an outlandish performer near the goal line in 2015, even for a player of his skill set.
Eifert falling to eight or so scores isn’t overly detrimental, but in standard leagues, Eifert would need to find an extra 300 yards and in PPR leagues, another 25 receptions to balance out such a scoring dip. Eifert saw 18.4 percent of the Bengals’ targets in games he played last season, and with the departure of Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones, that target share would stand to be within a reasonable projection of meeting those needed marks with Eifert potentially elevated to second in the target pecking order, but there’s already worry that he won’t be ready to start the season.
When finding out if an injury discount is worth the squeeze, we can use positional replacement value (per game output for the baseline of the position) to fill in the gap of missing games. That baseline is a moving target per fantasy league, but for tight ends in 12-team leagues, that mark is 5.5 points in standard leagues and 8.2 in PPR. If we’re projecting Eifert to be a similar player to what he was last year, keeping him at a modest 4.5 receptions and 50 yards receiving per game while still axing his touchdown total to the aforementioned eight, you’re still looking at a 12.5 points per game player in PPR leagues and a 8.0 one in standard formats. Using that soft projection as our guide, here’s where Eifert would rank with replacement values factored in pending him not starting the season and his games missed and the average seasonal finish of those points over the past five years with added replacement points.
| Games Played | TE Rank |
|---|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| 14 | 6 |
| 13 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 |
While it’s all back of the napkin based and no projection should be treated as concrete, at least it’s a rough outline of how you can factor in the ominous outlook of his early season availability into deciding whether or not you should draft Eifert. At worst, it gives you a rough outline for when he could become low hanging fruit. You also need to take into account how many bench spots you have to accommodate a player that you can’t use here. The early season waiver wire is the hottest, so in five man and under benches, it’s hard to eat a spot for a few weeks, especially when drafting Eifert forces you to draft multiple tight ends. More often than not, I won’t be looking to make a play on Eifert unless he falls closer to the TE10 area in drafts, but what once stood as a potentially overpriced player may in fact turn into a value late this summer.
Target Fragility, Stability and Opportunity
Delanie Walker is coming off of a career season at age 31, catching 94 passes for 1,088 yards. He got there by tallying a meaty 133 targets, which paced the tight end position despite Walker missing a game. That target total was also 27 more than his previous high coming in 2014.
A lot went into Walker accumulating so many looks. Walker saw 28.8 percent of the Titans’ targets from Week 9 on and while many are attributing that syncing up with the firing of Ken Whisenhunt, I believe it was more of a byproduct of Kendall Wright missing all but three games over that span, with Dexter McCluster and Justin Hunter playing in just one as the team leaned on a receiving unit of Harry Douglas and raw rookie Dorial Green-Beckham.
Not only did Walker take advantage of a lack of viable surrounding pass catching options, he also was immensely aided by negative game script. Only five players tallied more fantasy points than Walker did down two or more scores in the 4th quarter, which accounted for 19 percent of his season scoring total.
While the signing of Rishard Matthews, the return of Wright and Justin Hunter, another year of growth for Green-Beckham and the drafting of Tajae Sharpe don’t mean Walker won’t lead the Titans in 2016 targets, coming anywhere close to that 28 percent target share total he had over the final nine games can’t be handled as reality. Only 10 tight ends have seen at least 25 percent of their team’s passing attempts over a full season since 2000, and Tony Gonzalez’s 28.7 percent in 2008 is the highest mark. Of tight ends to see eight or more targets per game in back to back seasons (Walker saw 8.9) over the same span, the only players to do so are Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Dallas Clark and Kellen Winslow.
Even if Walker’s target share is compromised down near the 20 percent mark, we’re looking at close to a two target per game drop, which can be troubling because Walker has never proven to be an elite touchdown producer, failing to top six TDs in any NFL season while catching a touchdown on just 7.4 percent of his receptions over the past three years. I don’t believe Walker will keel over and die by any means, but his current TE6 cost feels like a trap that needs another perfect storm of opportunity to generate value, let alone just meet the investment.
One player fantasy owners keep clamoring for to see more targets is Travis Kelce. The real issue for Kelce isn’t his slice of the Kansas City passing pie, but the size of the pie itself. Kelce saw 22.5 percent of the Chiefs’ targets in 2015 and had over 20 percent of the looks in 10 of his 16 games. Those 10 games with a 20 plus percent target share were tied with Delanie Walker for second in the league behind Greg Olsen’s 11. Despite getting his hands on a large piece of his team’s passing game, Kelce ranked just 13th at the position in targets per game (6.4) and that was with Jamaal Charles missing two thirds of the year. Also, even with a larger grip on the offense, Kelce had just three top-six scoring weeks all of 2015 with eight at TE14 or lower in PPR leagues. Kelce has demonstrated elite qualities as he’s ranked third (8.5) and first (9.9) in yards per target over the past two years for tight ends with 50 or more targets. There’s reason to believe the Chiefs see more passing volume this season, but even that may not be enough as the offense in its entirety has capped Kelce from jumping into an elite fantasy option.
Tight End progression to begin a player’s career is almost always a slow burn, even for players that were selected with high draft capital and Eric Ebron has been no exception. But after a low end rookie season in 2014, Ebron quietly took a stride forward across the board in 2015.
| Year | Tgt/Gm | Rec/Gm | ReYd/Gm | TD Rate | Yd/Tgt | Yd/Rec | Pt/Tgt | PPR/Tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 19.1 | 4.0% | 5.3 | 9.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 2015 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 38.4 | 10.6% | 7.7 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
It was still just a baby step in the grand scheme of things as Ebron ranked 19th in fantasy points per game, but he did tally six top-12 scoring weeks at the position. Ebron only needs another small step forward to see a significant spike. A 25 percent increase in targets, receptions and yards (smaller than the jump he made from year one to year two), and we’re talking about a 70 catch, 750 yard tight end that pushes 100 targets. With the Lions losing so many targets (235) from last year and only Marvin Jones as major threat to consume them outside of a modest amount added onto Golden Tate‘s totals, it’s not hard to see a scenario where Ebron adds another target per game to his belt. With just five touchdowns scored, that’s a borderline top-10 tight end on overall production, making Ebron a potential low leverage value play when he’s hanging around after the top dozen tight ends are selected.
We’ve been here before with the possibility of Dwayne Allen being a late round hit at the position, but Allen is still flying low in drafts this summer. With both Allen and Coby Fleener free agents this past offseason, the Colts not only opted to re-sign Allen, but he also got the same amount of money per season as Fleener did on the open market.
In 2015, Allen posted career lows in every capacity, seeing just 29 targets all season long. That’s something the Colts have stated they plan to rectify this upcoming season. The Colts had over 200 targets depart from their roster, with 84 of those directly tied into Fleener. While Fleener and Allen aren’t one in the same, only Phillip Dorsett stands to see an overhauled target spike from his 2015 totals, leaving a lot on the table for Allen to surpass his career high of 66 targets (2012). In a small sample of just four games without Fleener active during his career, Allen has drawn 6.5 targets per game, and we know he has scoring upside based on 2014 when he turned just 29 receptions into eight touchdowns. I doubt Allen blows up to the tune of 75 plus receptions, but Allen is solid play for those chasing a 2015 Tyler Eifert-like season from a later round pick as Allen has double digit touchdown upside even if he fails to blow past 50-60 receptions.
An Oldie, But a Goodie
Antonio Gates turned 36 in June. The obvious concern with Gates is the relationship of his age and health as he’s played just two full seasons since 2010, but even when factoring in a game or two of a replacement level player, he’s a bargain at his current cost as he’s still keeping up elite production while on the field. Over the past two seasons, it’s rather surprising to see where Gates ranks among his peers in output.
Antonio Gates Tight End Ranks
| Year | Points Per Snap | Tgt/Gm | Rec/Gm | Yd/Gm | Td/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2014 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 3 |
*Points Per Snap Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
I don’t often run with narratives over anything evidence based, but Gates also needs eight touchdowns this season to become the all-time leading scorer at the tight end position in NFL history, something that is well within reach as a motivational factor for him and the team. Gates is a player that has top-six upside while on the field and can be selected outside of the top-12 tight ends in almost any draft. On deeper rosters, I love the idea of pairing Gates with another late rounder such as the aforementioned Ebron to balance out the risk that Gates inevitably meets his floor due to age or even when drafting just one tight end and trying to catch early season production while Gates is fresh and seeing where it leads.
