Wide Receiver Notebook

With August here and training camps in full go, the fantasy season is turning the corner into the final stretch of the offseason. So far we’ve covered the fantasy impact from teams turning the reins over to rookie quarterbacks, game scripts and play calling, scoring and efficiency per offensive possession, production and usage in the red zone, and top-down views of both the tight end and running back positions. That outlook of the positions for fantasy football continues as we dive into wide receivers.

It’s a Passing League

In our look at the running back position, we highlighted that the league-wide passing rate in 2016 was the highest it’s ever been in NFL history at 59.3 percent, and that six of the seven highest years in pass play percentage in league history have come since the 2011 season. The league is throwing more and more and the wide receiver position in totality is scoring more and more points.

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WR Fantasy Output Over the Past 10 Years

Year	WR PPR Pts	WR STD Pts	WR Rec	WR ReYD	WR TD	NFL Pass %
2016	18116.5	11579.5	6537	83522	501	59.31%
2015	17767.7	11468.7	6299	82560	519	59.09%
2014	17688.6	11346.6	6342	82829	485	58.24%
2013	17429.5	11315.5	6114	81603	483	58.35%
2012	17193.9	11147.9	6046	80823	491	57.65%
2011	16512.6	10821.6	5691	78618	473	57.10%
2010	16300.2	10599.2	5701	75728	480	56.93%
2009	15758.5	10136.5	5622	74292	431	56.28%
2008	15411.3	9917.3	5494	72249	412	55.43%
2007	16148.4	10367.4	5781	74658	471	56.47%

NFL wide receivers reeled in 238 more passes in 2016 than they did the year prior and produced their highest scoring season ever. We know the NFL has turned over to become a passing league and that receivers as a group were scoring more than ever, so how did the wide receiver position lose so much ground to running backs at the top of the fantasy food chain in 2016?

Top-12 WR Production Over the Past 10 Years

TOP12 WR	PPR Pts	STD Pts	Tgt	Rec	ReYd	ReTD
2016	3231.8	2135.3	1711	1109	14547	110
2015	3666.2	2442.7	1942	1244	16834	122
2014	3613.3	2464.3	1776	1164	16872	123
2013	3538.0	2408.9	1897	1144	16815	116
2012	3484.8	2306.2	1911	1187	16942	102
2011	3304.4	2293.4	1637	1023	15859	107
2010	3180.2	2186.4	1725	1018	14589	117
2009	3299.7	2202.8	1747	1118	14985	111
2008	3199.2	2157.1	1758	1073	15345	97
2007	3528.6	2387.7	1856	1143	15555	139

After a five-year run of improvement, the upper crust of the wide receiver position in fantasy had its worst collective season since 2010. Where the position was particularly stung was in the opportunity department. After WR1s averaged 162 targets per player in 2015, the group saw just 143 targets per player a year ago. While 2015 saw Julio Jones collect 203 looks to inflate that number, we also had Antonio Brown (193), DeAndre Hopkins (192), Demaryius Thomas (177) and Brandon Marshall (173) who bested or matched the 173 targets Mike Evans paced the position with a year ago. While that target dip was a large drop from the year prior, it was in line with the 149-target average over the eight years prior to that massive 2015 campaign. There should be expected recoil in the opportunity department based on 2016 being below the accustomed mean -- which should help reception and yardage totals recover some of their previous seasons’ output -- but anticipating the top of the position to recoup its 2015 usage isn’t something we should expect, either, as that is an outlier here.

WR2 (WR13-24) Production Over the Past 10 Years

WR13-24	PPR Pts	STD Pts	Tgt	Rec	ReYd	ReTD
2016	2598.9	1640.1	1586	970	12539	59
2015	2723.8	1804.8	1534	926	12598	91
2014	2644.7	1754.9	1491	888	12391	86
2013	2711.0	1764.0	1598	981	12924	73
2012	2659.7	1792.9	1478	877	11982	97
2011	2540.9	1729.9	1544	808	12058	84
2010	2542.1	1704.7	1511	840	11305	89
2009	2572.9	1718.3	1438	839	12387	78
2008	2610.2	1684.0	1480	920	11825	82
2007	2614.8	1705.6	1478	933	12379	74

In pairing up the red zone and running back notebooks, we’ve covered that running backs had a fantasy renaissance in 2016 due to an inflation of touchdowns -- more specifically, short ones -- despite the position continuing to lose actual opportunity overall, and now we know which subset of players that touchdown spike for running backs impacted the most for fantasy. After a league record 842 passing scores in 2015, there were 56 fewer passing touchdowns in 2016, the fewest since 2012. The WR1 group above was affected a little bit, losing an average of one touchdown reception per player, but the WR2 group got absolutely hammered in the touchdown output department. WRs 13-24 averaged just 4.9 receiving touchdowns per player, by far the lowest total over the past decade. Rishard Matthews (nine) and Tyrell Williams (seven) were the only two receivers in this bucket that scored more than six times. We should expect the secondary level of wide receivers to score more in 2016, and players such as Kelvin Benjamin, Donte Moncrief, Brandon Marshall and Williams himself are discounted fantasy options that can be carried to WR2 status through their touchdown output alone and carry weekly upside despite not being sexy overall selections.

WR3 (WR25-36) Production Over the Past 10 Years

WR25-36	PPR Pts	STD Pts	Tgt	Rec	ReYd	ReTD
2016	2307.0	1489.7	1280	832	10444	64
2015	2268.2	1503.6	1275	760	9951	73
2014	2243.9	1354.4	1360	803	10408	68
2013	2212.4	1423.3	1250	747	10310	69
2012	2155.1	1430.5	1237	731	10312	64
2011	2086.1	1384.0	1261	716	10009	59
2010	2121.4	1371.1	1247	749	9650	66
2009	2019.8	1344.4	1093	709	9233	54
2008	2106.0	1366.0	1328	737	10431	50
2007	2102.7	1387.4	1341	703	9643	73

Now we’re really getting underneath the hood and seeing where all this increased pass volume is making its mark consistently in fantasy. A contributing element as to why each wide receiver subset declined in different areas in 2016 is the continued success of the third receiver in offenses. As NFL teams have increased their reliance on the pass game, more and more players have been incorporated into a per play basis than ever before. WR3 production has increased in each of the past five seasons from a fantasy scoring perspective. Three or more wide receiver sets have increased in every NFL season over the past decade. Last season, teams used three-plus wide receiver sets on 78 percent of passing plays as opposed to a 55 percent rate 10 years ago. More wide receivers now have the opportunity to impact fantasy on a per play basis than ever before, and their role has been increasing for five straight years.

To wrap this portion up, the bullet points here are that league-wide passing is still climbing and along with that, WR3 usage is climbing. That may have a point shaving effect on the top of the position, but that trend had not impacted those groups beforehand, so it’s harder to just make a blanket statement that therefore those tiers solely dropped off because of it a year ago. On top of that, rushing scores had massive recoil due to the increased rate of short range opportunities and should be expected to normalize to pre-2015 totals, which impacted the secondary level of the receiver position more than anything. If you’re expecting a 2015 type season from the top of the fantasy wide receiving group, you’re going to be disappointed, but the position is deeper and better than ever before while the league is still operating in a direction to funnel points into the position.

WR Archetypes

By now, you’re used to me going on and on about getting to know how players score their points over their cumulative point total at season’s end, and the wide receiver position is the most diverse position we have in that regard for fantasy. We inherently know there are different positions within the position, but all of the players get shaded under one umbrella for scoring and analysis. If you are following a linear list of rankings, tiers, or projections, you may end up in a draft where those are guiding you to select Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, Tyreek Hill and DeSean Jackson as your wide receiving unit, all players that score their fantasy points in a similar fashion. Sure, you’re going to run into some monster weeks when the stars align for that group, but you’re also going to heighten the variance of your team performance and run into many low scoring weeks because each of these players scores their stats in a similar fashion. Inversely, you don’t want to end up with a receiving stable of Jarvis Landry, Stefon Diggs and Julian Edelman because you’re going to have a receiver corps that is littered with high floor/low ceiling plays that is reliant on volume over producing touchdowns. The goal should be to be build a diverse receiving stable with both upside and roster smoothing capabilities weekly to provide lineup versatility. By crafting your tiers around how players score their points instead of overall point totals, it allows you to map out possible arbitrage situations in your drafts as well. Here, we’re going to highlight some of those buckets of receivers.

Receptions

Player	Rec/Pt%	StD Yd/Pt%
Danny Amendola	45.05%	77.48%
Chris Conley	43.60%	92.40%
Tyler Boyd	43.51%	86.02%
Adam Humphries	42.71%	80.18%
Jarvis Landry	42.22%	77.42%
Paul Richardson	41.33%	82.73%
Nelson Agholor	41.20%	76.96%
Julian Edelman	40.80%	73.62%
Cole Beasley	40.73%	72.04%
Jeremy Kerley	40.14%	78.84%
Stefon Diggs	39.70%	78.56%
Kendall Wright	39.03%	74.17%
Robert Woods	38.87%	76.76%
Keenan Allen	38.86%	75.27%
Jamison Crowder	38.76%	72.88%
Kamar Aiken	38.33%	74.75%
Marqise Lee	38.03%	78.12%
Cameron Meredith	38.02%	80.32%
Golden Tate	37.91%	74.30%
Pierre Garcon	37.73%	75.92%
Willie Snead	37.61%	80.33%
Jordan Matthews	37.23%	70.47%
Michael Crabtree	36.98%	70.41%
Chris Hogan	36.30%	74.70%
Anquan Boldin	36.17%	70.81%
Dontrelle Inman	36.16%	78.43%

This subset of receivers is made up of players where receptions alone make up over 35 percent of their PPR receiving output for their careers. These are your high floor PPR options that can counterbalance some volatility in your lineup or prevent you from a near goose egg at the position. Attached is their standard scoring yardage because they are solely just a vessel for yardage in that format since touchdowns don’t make up a large part of this group’s fantasy production, and their receptions value in those leagues doesn’t help their cause. The only receivers above to have at least seven touchdowns in multiple seasons are Anquan Boldin (five), Michael Crabtree (three) and Jordan Matthews (two), while only Jamison Crowder, Julian Edelman and Keenan Allen have done it once. It’s not surprising to see Jarvis Landry pop up as the first fantasy relevant name, and we’ve already talked about Landry’s target drop in 2016 and his future potentially being tied to how often Miami is ahead and trailing on the scoreboard, so we’re going to blow by him here.

Edelman had a tale of two seasons in 2016. Over his first nine games, Edelman ranked 26^th in the league in targets (7.9 per game and 25.2 percent of the New England team total) and was the WR49 in standard leagues, and the WR39 in PPR formats. After Rob Gronkowski was injured in Week 10, the New England passing game completely flowed through Edelman as he led the NFL in targets (12.6 per game and 33.2 percent of the team total) and receptions (7.1) from Week 11 on while he was the third highest scoring receiver in both major formats for the remainder of the season. Edelman has a lot more competition for targets coming into 2017 than he did to close last season. Anticipating him to approach double digit targets per game again is lofty, while he has scored more than four touchdowns in a season just twice and has scored on just 5.6 percent of his career receptions. In standard formats, Edelman shouldn’t be drafted with any expectations to be a weekly starter.

Garcon is a favorite for many fantasy analysts because he is a dark horse to beat these options in targets while coming along with a cheaper investment in terms of required draft capital. Garcon has finished as a top-36 scorer in five of the past seven seasons. Of course, Kyle Shanahan was attached to the best season of Garcon’s career in 2013 when he had 113 receptions for 1,346 yards on 181 targets, and not many people will let you forget that Shanahan has had a history of funneling targets to his lead receiver. Expecting that kind of target volume four years later would be foolhardy, but Garcon does have little in his path to hit 125 targets with ease. He has never scored more than six touchdowns in a season over his nine years in the league and cleared 1,000 yards just twice, but Garcon is a solid floor option in any format when he’s taken outside of the top-30 at his position.

Diggs suffered a groin injury last Week 4 and saw his usage make a dramatic shift as he was never the same afterwards. After that groin injury, Diggs moved into the slot, running 70 percent of his routes inside with an average depth of target of 8.1 yards. This after running 44 percent of his routes with a 10.1-yard depth of target prior to injury. Diggs has flashed pockets of elite production in both of his first two seasons, but he hasn’t quite put together a full season of production. He’s scored just seven times on 136 receptions, but is a major threat to clear 90 catches in his third season.

Snead is a favorite for many this summer and I’m in the camp who always wants players attached to Drew Brees, but his ceiling has been stifled despite his attachment to the Saints’ offense. Snead has scored in just five of his 30 games played while reaching 100 yards just three times. I often find myself waiting on Garcon and taking players such as Kelvin Benjamin, Brandon Marshall and Donte Moncrief around Snead’s ADP -- players that can outscore him on 20-25 fewer receptions -- but I am always monitoring if Snead dips in drafts.

Through four years, Keenan Allen has failed to play a full 16 games and has now missed 23 games over the past two seasons. He has averaged 9.5 targets per game and 24.5 percent of the Chargers’ targets per week since his rookie season. That benchmark may be harder to reach with all the passing game options that San Diego has coming into the season, which can hurt a player that has thrived on volume. Allen has averaged just 10.5 yards per reception since his rookie season with just eight touchdowns, so the difference between 120 targets and pushing the 150 mark has a ripple effect on his output. Allen’s injury history and potential volume dip push him down into the back half of the WR2 area in drafts, but he is the most expensive player listed above, which makes it hard to pull the trigger.

Yardage

Player	PPR Yd/Pt%	Std Yd/Pt%
DeSean Jackson	52.00%	73.62%
T.Y. Hilton	51.16%	75.96%
Julio Jones	50.72%	75.84%
Victor Cruz	50.37%	75.79%
Kenny Britt	50.04%	73.23%
DeVante Parker	49.96%	74.67%
Amari Cooper	49.96%	76.66%
Travis Benjamin	49.67%	73.96%
Alshon Jeffery	48.98%	72.82%
Taylor Gabriel	48.49%	72.70%
Markus Wheaton	48.38%	73.67%
John Brown	48.36%	72.37%
Adam Thielen	48.33%	73.76%
Brandon LaFell	48.09%	73.84%
A.J. Green	47.92%	70.80%
Demaryius Thomas	47.67%	72.00%
Ted Ginn	46.41%	69.77%
Jeremy Maclin	46.08%	69.98%
Doug Baldwin	45.64%	69.05%
Marvin Jones	45.55%	67.37%
Tyler Lockett	45.44%	67.98%

This group is more dependent on yardage to procure fantasy output as over 45 percent of their scoring comes from yardage alone while falling below a 35 percent need for receptions and a 20 percent requirement for touchdowns. This group produces more yardage while still having uneven touchdown reliance despite scoring more than the reception-based group above. You see a few other high-cost receivers creep into the fold here, joining the group of obvious splash-play needy receivers you’d expect. We’ve discussed Julio Jones and his unprecedented run on producing receiving yardage per game over the past four years despite failing to ever turn in the touchdown production of his peers as well as notes on Amari Cooper and T.Y. Hilton there in that same post.

Baldwin has now increased his targets, receptions, and receiving yardage in five consecutive seasons and is a great example that the word “regression” isn’t quite the boogeyman people treat it as. Only Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham have more 20-point PPR games than Baldwin over the past two years (he’s had four in each season if you think I’m cheating by going back into 2015). He’s had limited middle ground, however, which isn’t something you’d expect from a slot receiver for fantasy. In 2016, Baldwin finished as a top-10 scorer in five games, but also fell outside of the top-30 in eight games. In Seattle’s offense, he doesn’t run into the plethora of targets (25^th in targets per game in 2016) of the receiving company he keeps in ADP, but he thrives on efficiency. Baldwin has caught 75 percent of his targets in each of the past two years, the first player since Wes Welker to have multiple seasons of catching at least 75 percent of 100 or more targets. I would have no issue with someone pulling the trigger on Baldwin over someone like Dez Bryant in the back of the second round.

Over the past two seasons, Demaryius Thomas has had just seven top-12 scoring weeks, but he has had just seven weeks outside of the top-40 at this position as he’s become a high floor weekly player for fantasy. Post-prime Peyton, Thomas has really been hurt in the scoring department, scoring on just 3.4 percent of his targets the past two years after reaching the paint on 7.5 percent of his looks over the three seasons prior. Thomas is a rock steady option as a secondary or third receiver, but his days of reaching double digit touchdowns appear to be over due to his offensive and quarterback attachment.

DeSean Jackson has arguably been the best deep threat in the NFL since entering the league in 2008. In 2016, he turned just 56 receptions into 1,005 yards (17.9 Y/R), the third consecutive season in which he’s averaged over 17 yards per reception. His signing with Tampa Bay is a perfect match as 22.7 percent of Jameis Winston’s pass attempts were on targets 15 or more yards downfield, the third highest rate in the league. You know what you’re getting with Jackson when you select him. He’s played 16 games just twice over his nine NFL seasons and caught more than six touchdowns just twice, but D-Jax is a high variance WR3 option that can be a weekly grave digger if is floor isn’t overly necessary to your weekly build.

John Brown had a season to forget in 2016. He battled concussion and hamstring injuries on top of dealing with a sickle-cell diagnosis and, oh yeah, he also had a cyst on his back as he could only muster up 39 receptions for 517 yards and two touchdowns for the year. Arizona targeted their wide receivers 407 times in 2016 -- more than any team in the NFL -- and Brown is in a situation that lacks consistent competition outside of soon to be 34-year-old Larry Fitzgerald with Chad Williams being a rookie and J.J. Nelson being a niche player. Seemingly over the ailments that plagued his third season, Brown is a potential value in 2017.

Owners that drafted Jones were taking a victory lap after the opening month of last season when he caught 23 passes for 482 yards and two touchdowns. That warm feeling quickly subsided as Jones caught 32 passes for 448 yards and two touchdowns for the remainder of the year. Jones suffered and played through a foot injury and ran into a slew of good boundary cornerbacks, but those numbers were hard to stomach. He still garnered 103 targets while missing a game and the team is still committed to him as a secondary receiver while being one of the most unbalanced offenses in the NFL shifted toward the pass. After scoring 10 times 2013, Jones has scored nine touchdowns combined in his surrounding three seasons played. Still, he remains intriguing as a WR5 due to his role and offensive attachment.

Touchdowns

Player	PPR TD%	STD TD%
Devin Funchess	28.07%	39.02%
Martavis Bryant	27.97%	37.45%
Seth Roberts	26.82%	39.04%
Dez Bryant	26.45%	38.01%
Sterling Shepard	26.03%	40.20%
Donte Moncrief	25.81%	39.02%
Eric Decker	25.69%	37.62%
JJ Nelson	25.26%	33.10%
Malcolm Mitchell	24.97%	37.44%
Allen Hurns	23.73%	34.49%
Jordy Nelson	23.54%	34.10%
Torrey Smith	23.42%	32.56%
Odell Beckham	23.05%	33.71%
Kelvin Benjamin	22.70%	33.46%
Andre Holmes	22.49%	33.00%
Marquise Goodwin	22.07%	31.55%
Kenny Stills	21.48%	30.41%
Mike Evans	21.32%	31.05%
Allen Robinson	21.29%	31.50%
Davante Adams	21.16%	33.04%
Michael Thomas	21.12%	32.99%
Terrance Williams	20.96%	30.34%
Tyrell Williams	20.52%	29.47%
Mike Wallace	20.45%	29.74%
Sammy Watkins	20.41%	29.41%
Rishard Matthews	20.13%	30.47%

This group of receivers counts on touchdown production alone to make up 20 percent of their PPR scoring, and the subset in turn is elevated in standard leagues. Calling some of these players “dependent” on touchdowns isn’t entirely fair as some of them have proven consistent touchdown producers as part as their overall game, but these are the group whose fantasy scoring is heavily influenced by touchdown production. For example, Seth Roberts needs touchdowns to score fantasy points, whereas Dez Bryant is an elite touchdown scorer. We’ve already had notes on Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay offense as well as Eric Decker pairing up with Marcus Mariota and Sammy Watkins being able to score despite lacking usage in the red zone, so we’re going past them here.

Dez Bryant missed three games with a knee fracture, and it took a while for he and rookie Dak Prescott to find their groove together. Over his first five games, Bryant secured just 16 of his 41 targets (39 percent) for 282 yards and two scores with 40 or fewer receiving yards in three of those five games. Over the next seven games Weeks 10-16, Bryant caught 34 of 54 targets (63 percent) for 514 yards and six touchdowns as he was the WR4 in scoring down the stretch those weeks. Prescott also was more willing to take shots downfield with Bryant as 37.5 percent of Bryant’s targets came on throws 15 yards or further downfield, a career high. Dez is the league’s premier touchdown producing pass catcher west of Rob Gronkowski, scoring once every 13 targets or fewer in six of his seven seasons. The downside is that Bryant has had 140 targets in a season just once over his career. I also expect Bryant to have potential to open and close the season slowly as Dallas opens with dates against the Giants, Broncos and Patrick Peterson over the opening three weeks and then faces the Giants again as well as the Seahawks in the fantasy playoffs. I’m more than happy with Bryant as my second receiver for his touchdown potential, but am uneasy with him leading my receiving corps given his low target volume and rough schedule.

Returning from a torn ACL at age 31, Nelson came out of the blocks slowly in 2016. Through six games played, Nelson had reeled in just 27 receptions for 321 yards and 6.6 yards per target, but he was able to salvage being the WR26 over that span by scoring five touchdowns. From Week 8 on, Nelson was the player of years past. He was the highest scoring fantasy receiver from that point on, catching 70 passes for 936 yards and nine touchdowns with 9.6 yards per target over his final 10 games. Nelson scored at least once in 11 different weeks, two more than the next closest player in the league. Nelson remains the primary target for Aaron Rodgers and has now scored 27 touchdowns over his past two seasons. Even at age 32, Nelson remains a commodity you can count on that is being selected among players with limited bodies of work.

Martavis Bryant is getting closer to finding the football field for the Steelers and when he is on it, he scores touchdowns. Bryant has caught at least one touchdown pass in 52.4 percent of his games played (11 of 21), trailing only Odell Beckham (55.8 percent) and Dez Bryant (52.6 percent) across the league. Martavis ranked 15^th in standard points per game in each of 2014 and 2015, much higher than where he’ll be drafted this summer, even with his rising cost. Given his weekly upside, attachment to one of the league’s best offenses, and potential if anything were to happen to Antonio Brown, Bryant is someone worth taking a chance on even if he continues to be drafted at WR3 cost, but he may just mean more for fantasy to his surrounding teammates than himself. The Steelers are unequivocally a better offense with Bryant on the field, scoring 5.5 more points per game with 58.8 more passing yards per game with him in the lineup over the past three seasons. Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger both see their production rise with Bryant on the field.

Touchdown Regression to the Mean

I care about potential touchdown production on my rosters and so should you. There are a few candidates at the wide receiver position that we may have increased anticipation to recoil or to lose some touchdown production based on their 2016 performance compared to career output. Here are the receivers who produced a 2016 touchdown per target at least two percentage points above or below their career averages.

Player	TD/TGT%	2016	Diff.
Taylor Gabriel	4.12%	12.00%	7.88%
Donte Moncrief	7.62%	12.50%	4.88%
Davante Adams	5.69%	9.92%	4.22%
Kenny Stills	7.22%	11.11%	3.89%
Anquan Boldin	5.41%	8.42%	3.01%
Antonio Brown	5.30%	7.79%	2.50%
Rishard Matthews	6.12%	8.33%	2.22%
Jamison Crowder	5.08%	7.08%	2.00%
A.J. Green	6.08%	4.00%	-2.08%
Marvin Jones	5.97%	3.88%	-2.09%
Robert Woods	3.48%	1.32%	-2.16%
Demaryius Thomas	5.78%	3.47%	-2.31%
John Brown	5.07%	2.74%	-2.33%
Alshon Jeffery	4.91%	2.13%	-2.79%
Brandon Marshall	5.14%	2.34%	-2.80%
Mike Wallace	6.26%	3.45%	-2.81%
Allen Hurns	6.83%	3.95%	-2.89%
Jordan Matthews	5.49%	2.56%	-2.93%
Jeremy Maclin	6.00%	2.63%	-3.37%
Tyler Lockett	5.19%	1.52%	-3.67%

Earlier I mentioned that I view Demaryius Thomas’ touchdown decline to be offensive climate and quarterback related, so it’s hard to sink teeth into him returning to a bankable touchdown scorer. I also have already touched on Davante Adams and his breakout as well as why I am buying Brandon Marshall scoring more in 2017 based on how consistent his yearly usage has been near the end zone no matter the team he’s been on.

Prior to a Week 11 hamstring injury that forced A.J. Green to miss the remainder of the season, he was having one of the best fantasy seasons of his stellar career. Through 10 weeks, Green was third in the NFL in targets (11 per game), receptions (7.3 per game) and second in receiving yardage (107.1 yards per game) while being the highest scorer per game among receivers in both standard and PPR formats. As good as Green was last season prior to injury, he could’ve even been better for fantasy as he scored on just 6.1 percent of his receptions -- the lowest mark of his career -- after scoring on 10.8 percent of his receptions for his career prior. He scored just once every 25 targets after scoring once every 16 targets to start his career. With any bounce back on that scoring prowess to go along with a heavy target count, Green should deliver on his high cost.

Moncrief missed seven games due to shoulder and hamstring injuries, but still managed to lead the Colts in receiving touchdowns in 2016 with seven. He’s now scored in 11 of his past 15 games playing with Andrew Luck and over the past two seasons, Moncrief has had the most red zone receptions (16) and touchdowns (11) on the team. Unfortunately, scoring touchdowns is all he has done as 57.9 percent of his standard fantasy scoring a season ago came from touchdowns, the highest dependency in the league. In those 15 games he’s played with Luck, Moncrief has averaged just 40.9 receiving yards per game. He needs to become more stable between the 20s to circumvent any games in which he fails to score. If he does that, his ceiling is the limit, but if he tails off, then he’s in the danger zone. Moncrief is more desirable in standard scoring formats as a WR3/WR4 than he is PPR leagues, but remains a solid buy outside of the top-30 based on touchdown ability alone.

Stills scored once every nine targets in 2016 after scoring once every 17.8 targets over the first three seasons of his career. 42.7 percent of his standard fantasy scoring came from touchdown receptions alone, the second highest rate in the league. Consider Stills a low floor bench option that will run into sporadic spike weeks.

Rishard Matthews raised his target (108), reception (65), yardage (945) and touchdown (nine) totals for the second consecutive season. He really broke out as the season wore on, playing 90 percent of the team snaps over the final nine games after playing just 53 percent prior. Over that span, Matthews received 26.5 percent of the team targets after garnering 14.9 percent beforehand and was a top-10 producer in both standard and PPR formats as he tied for second in the league with seven receiving touchdowns during that stretch. But the Titans drafted Corey Davis with the fifth overall selection and acquired Eric Decker. While Davis may not carve out a large season for fantasy purposes, he does compromise Matthews’ output given the low volume passing nature of the Tennessee offense, and Decker hurts Matthews’ touchdown potential. Matthews assuredly won’t push the 27 percent of team targets that he held over the back half of 2016, and over that span, he averaged just 4.7 receptions per game. He should still be the primary vertical and red zone playmaker for the Titans, but the potential squeeze felt by the additions of Davis and Decker and the run-heavy nature of the Tennessee offense will keep Matthews more in the WR4 territory as opposed to a screaming value that he could’ve been.

Closing out, far be it from me to throw any shade at Antonio Brown, but he managed to score two more times (12) in 2016 than he did in 2015 on 39 fewer targets. On the flip side, he also joined Marvin Harrison as the only players in NFL history to have four consecutive seasons with at least 100 receptions, so that’s as much as I’ll allow myself to delve into any potential negativity. Brown has been the Gibraltar of fantasy wide receivers over the past four years and should undoubtedly be the first receiver selected in drafts this summer.