Welcome back to FLEX Finder. It’s been a long offseason and I’ve been tasked with covering most of it. The good news for you is that I have developed some very strong priors, and the bad news for you is that I’m the sort of person who is ready to move off my priors the second the new information we’re about to gather over the first month of the season goes wrong. That leaves (especially) Week 1 and Week 2 as high-variance games for these sorts of articles. Strap in, we’re about to be really right, really wrong, or ideally a mix of both.
Rules for this weekly article:
1) I will not recommend quarterbacks — There are plenty of good ones. You’re on your own there.
2) I will not recommend any running back who costs more than $5,000, wideout who costs more than $4,500, or tight end that costs more than $4,000 in DraftKings’ DFS slate — This was an easy cutoff for what a FLEX really is.
3) I consider any player who garners over 50 yards or scores a victory for the column — anything more you get out of that, well, great for you. Let’s set expectations low because we are combing for outliers.
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▶ Running Backs
Braelon Allen, NYJ — $4,700 — Denny’s hatred of his swole body aside, we need to be clear that once we go this low on running backs, we are buying into divvied backfields and we are going to be naturally hit-or-miss. That said, I do believe that Allen is good. I do believe he is going to get red zone carries, since he did plenty of that last year before he got hurt. The Titans traded out T’Vondre Sweat for John-Franklin Myers in a move I think will make harder for them to stuff the run. The Titans were 21st in run defense DVOA last year and I bet they can go lower this year, with a defense in which the only linebacker even the strongest NFL heads can name is nursing a concussion suffered in an accident before the game. Of all the backs that are under our imaginary criteria, I feel strongest about the odds of Allen scoring this week.
Mike Washington Jr., LV — $4,600 — Maybe Ashton Jeanty is playing, and maybe he isn’t. Let me ask a question: Shouldn’t Washington Jr. get plenty of playing time anyway as Jeanty works back from the ankle injury? Wouldn’t it make sense to ease Jeanty in? And don’t Klint Kubiak backfields always divvy up plenty of work anyway? Alright. So once I’ve established I believe these things, I then look at an opponent that turned over seven spots on the waiver wire in Week 1 and looks like this:
(Depth chart courtesy of Ourlads.)
There are two established NFL players here: Zach Sieler and Jordyn Brooks. I like Jacob Rodriguez a lot, but he’s a rookie linebacker in game one of his NFL career. The Raiders paid Tyler Linderbaum to run the ball. I think they do that here.
George Holani, SEA — $4,600 — My main prior here is that the Seahawks will use Jadarian Price as their lead back until Zach Charbonnet is healthy, and that it will be a split backfield at that point. But the Seahawks beats have been loud that Holani will be involved on third down, and you’re almost universally better off betting against rookie running backs early in their first season. Maybe Price handles 70 percent of the touches here, but I think a 60/40 split is approachable for Holani. And while DC Zak Kuhr did yeoman’s work down the stretch last year, the Patriots don’t have a ton of defensive talent outside of the secondary. They couldn’t stop the Seahawks run game in the Super Bowl. And Christian Barmore is banged up. I think Holani’s range of probabilities aim quite a bit higher than this.
Chris Brooks/Kaleb Johnson, GB — $4,500 and $4,400 — Someone has to run the ball in Green Bay, and are we really going to trust MarShawn Lloyd to make it full a whole game unscathed? Brooks has the third-down role set. I don’t know how quickly Johnson can get up to speed but I liked him quite a bit coming out of Iowa and think he could prove he got a raw deal in time. I don’t feel quite as strongly about this as my other picks here — running back dries up quick — but I think Lloyd could be looking at less time in the backfield than you’d think.
▶ Wide receivers
Kayshon Boutte, HOU — $4,500 — The answer to “which of Houston’s young wideouts outside of Nico Collins do you want?” dried up quickly. The answer was Jayden Higgins, but his ACL decided we don’t get to live in that world. Jaylin Noel had a bumpy, injury-filled camp. Tank Dell is on the PUP list to start the season. That leaves Boutte and Dalton Schultz as potential No. 2 target options for the Texans heading into Jim Leonhard‘s first game as Bills defensive coordinator. Someone has to generate fantasy points in this passing game and I’ll bet on the guy who can get there with one catch.
Pat Bryant, DEN — $4,200 — I like a lot about what the Chiefs did this offseason defensively, but with Trent McDuffie jettisoned to LA, we’re living in a world where they’re playing a 2025 third-round pick, the sixth overall pick in this year’s draft, and legendary Titans bust L’Jarius Sneed as their three cornerbacks. None of that scares me. Bryant, by all accounts, was one of the main stars of Broncos training camp and I think we can trust him to be in the starting three-wide for an offense that will throw a lot. I think he takes a step forward this year and it starts here.
Adonai Mitchell, NYJ — $4,000 — Did you know that the Titans fixed their cornerback room this offseason? They signed Alontae Taylor and Cor’Dale Flott to big deals, which is something that would sound a lot better if it didn’t make their No. 1 cornerback Alontae Taylor and their No. 2 cornerback Cor’Dale Flott. There was nothing there last year. I think the Jets’ pass offense will be more theoretically good than actually good this year, but this is a matchup to push in my opinion. Mitchell has been the toast of Jets camp and I think he’ll have plenty of air yards in this game; I can’t tell you how they’ll end up, but this is the upside we hunt for.
Devaughn Vele, NO — $3,500 — With Jordyn Tyson derailed by injury, Vele opens up as the pretty clear No. 2 receiver in New Orleans as the only two other non-Chris Olave receivers to make the 53-man roster are Day 3 rookies. Vele took his time to get on the field last year after he was traded to New Orleans near last cuts, but had a month-long stretch from Thanksgiving to before Christmas where he averaged 6.5 targets a game and piled on 239 total yards before a season-ending injury. I think he’s got a window to be a very interesting fantasy play this year and the Lions secondary is diminished on talent with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph both not playing.
Ja’Kobi Lane, BAL — $3,100 — I don’t understand this one at all, so it has to be the case that he’ll wind up a dud. This is a player who got training camp blurbs like this from beat reporters: “The rookie third-round pick has put together one of the best camps ever by a Ravens rookie, delivering a highlight reel catch almost every day.” The competition around him for targets is almost non-existent: Rashod Bateman was only theoretically on the field last year and now has off-field issues, Mark Andrews feels diminished and old. It’s Zay Flowers and a big vacuum for Ben Johnson‘s offensive coordinator last year, Declan Doyle. I like Lane to step into that vacuum, and I get to pit him against a weak Colts defense in Week 1 too? I legitimately don’t understand.
▶ Tight ends
Juwan Johnson, NO — $3,700 — The designated survivor of the Saints receiver room. “This will be the thing that ends Johnson’s fantasy viability,” I write as he somehow puts up another 6/75 line in Week 1 against anonymous non-Jack Campbell Lions coverage linebackers. (Did you know Devin White is there?)
Greg Dulcich, MIA — $3,500 — Someone has to score fantasy points for the Dolphins this year. The defense is just too terrible for them to run the ball all season. Look at that depth chart I posted above. It doesn’t even get into the safety room. I think the Raiders are another defense to pick on, and Dulcich was someone who was putting up some low-key usable lines last year in between Darren Waller injuries. At some point I figure one of the rookie wideouts will evolve into the main play here, but Dulcich is who I’m starting with as the main target.
