What went right in Week 1? Well, not much for this column. We had some high-profile touchdowns taken off the board from Ja’Kobi Lane and Braelon Allen. We had a fast Pat Bryant start run into an offense that simply couldn’t do anything. We had Mike Washington play well but Ashton Jeanty be much healthier than assumed as of pre-writing a column for Wednesday because the NFL opened the season early. It was a tough scene, as the kids say, for this column.
One thing I want to point out because I think it does actually matter: The 13- and 12-personnel trend (using multiple tight ends, in layman’s terms) is going to make it harder and harder for this column to hit. Only six teams in the league ran 11-personnel more than 70 percent of the time in Week 1 per Sumer Sports: The Buccaneers, Colts, Titans, Eagles, Commanders, and Cowboys. Most of those teams were trailing by major deficits. Why does that matter? Because if we’re putting a tight end on the field whose job it (mostly) is to block, we are going to condense the route tree and production outcomes. This is great for fantasy football as a whole, but terrible for an article whose job it is to find sleepers for the week.
Anyway, now that I got some complaining out of the way:
Rules for this weekly article:
1) I will not recommend quarterbacks — There are plenty of good ones. You’re on your own there.
2) I will not recommend any running back who costs more than $5,000, wideout who costs more than $4,500, or tight end that costs more than $4,000 in DraftKings’ DFS slate — This was an easy cutoff for what a FLEX really is.
3) I consider any player who garners over 50 yards or scores a victory for the column — anything more you get out of that, well, great for you. Let’s set expectations low because we are combing for outliers.
▶ Running Backs
JK Dobbins, DEN — $5,000 — Bo Nix was pressured on 45.5 percent of his dropbacks in Week 1, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Just behind him is Week 1 Jaguars opponent Deshaun Watson, at 44.8 percent. The Jaguars are well-coordinated, but they are not a team built to stop the run. Their major investments are bookend edge players Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. (It should be noted that the Jags played Walker more inside against the Browns than they usually have, but still, he’s nominally an EDGE.) I think the major takeaway that the Broncos will have from Week 1 is “uh oh, we need to run the ball more” and I think this game sets up well for that. Dobbins is still the lead back of the committee and RJ Harvey (hamstring) popped up on the injury report on Wednesday. The Broncos will try to take some pressure off of Nix with their ground game here and then Sean Payton will forget that it ever happened in Week 3.
Blake Corum, LAR — $4,900 — Corum got 10 carries for 54 yards in Week 1’s loss to the 49ers in Australia. He’s pretty much in an even split with Kyren Williams on playing time. The Giants, prior to Week 1, were not regarded as a strong opponent. I’m open to the idea that John Harbaugh has changed things, but the talent on this run defense does not scare me and I’d also bet on the Rams leaning more on the run after Matthew Stafford was pressured on 44 percent of his dropbacks in Week 1. Assuming the Rams are able to bleed clock against the Giants at some point, Corum has some real upside scenarios. And his floor is reasonable for this price tag as well.
Rico Dowdle, PIT — $4,900 — The Seahawks ran on the Patriots even with Drew Lock at quarterback, averaging 4.5 yards a tote with Jadarian Price and George Holani. Dowdle got fewer touches against the Falcons than Jaylen Warren, but he played 39 snaps to Warren’s 25 and they trusted him as a pass blocker. That isn’t how I would have expected things to go before this season. I think the only reason we’re under $5,000 here is the poor Week 1 box score, and I don’t necessarily believe there’s a reason to think that will happen again.
Kaelon Black, SF — $4,500 — Black got 28 snaps to Christian McCaffrey‘s 36 against the Rams in Week 1. The Dolphins just allowed one of 2025’s worst run offenses to put up 30 carries for 143 yards between Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. while trailing the entire game. This Dolphins roster was born to be attacked on the ground and this looks to be a perfect opportunity assuming Jordan James doesn’t magically get active and force a carries split. I don’t really think the 49ers are going to limit McCaffrey this much going forward, but I suspect they’ll blow out the Dolphins by enough that it won’t really matter.
▶ Wide receivers
Dontayvion Wicks, PHI — $4,300 — The Eagles wound up playing Wicks for 91 percent of the snaps, putting him well ahead of Makai Lemon. It’s not a pass offense I would often endorse, but Wicks is a live deep threat playing the Titans and that generally tends to work out pretty well. The Titans allowed three 30-yard pass plays last week and created zero sacks. Against the Jets. Really.
Pat Bryant, DEN — $4,200 — Running it back from last week, Bryant went for 4/42 and played 59 percent of Denver’s snaps as they mostly kept Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims on the sideline. (It didn’t help that Franklin drew an offensive pass interference penalty on one of his few snaps.) I don’t necessarily trust Bryant to be the team’s leading target — that feels rich — but I do think he can be No. 2 behind Jaylen Waddle in an optimistic runout.
KC Concepcion, CLE — $4,100 — The lie detector did not lie on the training camp drumbeat that Concepcion would be the guy that Cleveland would feed targets to. He went for 4/43 in a bereft passing offense and also added 3/15 on the ground. There are Deebo Samuel-type outcomes here for Concepcion in the long-term. In the short-term, well, the Browns are going to throw a lot. Some of those throws will not be good because of who the quarterback is, but that’s why Concepcion is available to be played for this price in the first place. The Buccaneers are not an altogether threatening defense to play against, either.
Devaughn Vele, NO — $4,200 — Running it back from last week a second time, this time with one of the few receivers who actually worked out for me. Vele is locked into a major passing game role and the Saints may need to be throwing plenty to keep up with the Ravens. Don’t expect last week’s line — we’re not getting 60 Tyler Shough throws — but I do think he’ll be a reasonable FLEX play and contribute 50 yards with a strong touchdown chance.
Caleb Douglas, MIA — $3,700 — The big winner of Miami’s garbage-time offense, Douglas was second on the team with seven targets and finished with a team-best 94 receiving yards. We already know from the fact that Mike McDaniel couldn’t make him a thing that Malik Washington is unlikely to be a thing no matter the target count. The 49ers are going to blow out the Dolphins — many teams may blow out the Dolphins this year — and Douglas should continue to benefit from that given the lack of a good secondary option for Malik Willis to throw at.
▶ Tight ends
Juwan Johnson, NO — $3,900 — The designated survivor of the Saints receiver room, as I wrote last week, got there again. His 3/54/1 line against the Lions probably doesn’t happen without falling in a major hole, but the Saints have a pretty condensed passing tree this year and if the Ravens are going to conscript them like they did to the Colts, there should be plenty of garbage time work in Johnson’s future.
TJ Hockenson, MIN — $3,500 — We’re unsure if Kyler Murray will go here, but Carson Wentz has been told to do two things: throw balls at Justin Jefferson‘s general area and also if you want to get hit a bit so we can pick up some penalties that would be swell too. However, one of his touchdown passes did go to Hockenson, rather than the other two wideouts on the roster. I don’t mind a Jauan Jennings ($3,800) play here either, because the truth is that the Bears are going to create some insane point totals this year and their opponents are going to have to catch up.
