Week 9 has blessed us with five games with totals over 50 points, giving fantasy managers plenty of shootouts to choose from as they set their lineups. These are my favorite starts and my biggest fades for Week 9.
► Quarterback
Start: Caleb Williams, Bears
While some would call me a “Caleb hater,” it pains me to admit this is a great spot for the young passer. The Bengals have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year and rank 30th in EPA per dropback play allowed. Williams has faced three bottom 10 defenses in passing EPA this year. They were his three best games by yards and yards per attempt. The last time he faced a defense as bad as the Bengals was when he destroyed Dallas with 298 yards and four scores.
Start: Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals
Update: The Cardinals were reportedly planning to start Kyler Murray this week, but that looked increasingly unlikely with every practice. Now, all signs point to Brissett drawing the start versus the Cowboys.
There’s no better matchup for opposing passers than Dallas. The Cowboys are giving up 25 points per game to quarterbacks this year. No other team is even over 22. I will harp on how bad this defense is through the air later in this article. For now, it’s worth mentioning that Dallas has faced the fourth-most scrambles this year and has given up the fourth-most rushing yards on these attempts. They rank 22nd in yards per carry allowed on scrambles and are one of just four teams to give up multiple scramble touchdowns. Brissett has five scrambles in two starts.
Sit: Bo Nix, Broncos
Fantasy managers have been rewarded with a string of strong fantasy performances from Nix. That streak will likely come to an end this week in an ugly game versus Houston. Denver has the third-lowest total of the week, behind teams like the Falcons and J.J. McCarthy-led Vikings. Nix has beaten up on bad opponents this year, averaging 26.2 points per game against bottom-10 teams in fantasy points allowed. In his two games against above-average fantasy defenses, Nix posted 8.8 and 13.4 points. He now gets a Houston defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks by a wide margin.
Sit: C.J. Stroud, Texans
The other side of the Houston/Denver game doesn’t look much better. The Broncos are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing passers. Their defense ranks fifth in EPA per dropback allowed. The 40-point total in this game is the lowest of the week by over three points. Houston has played in one game with more than 46 points scored and their games have gone over the Vegas total just twice this year.
► Running Back
Start: Rico Dowdle, Panthers
Dowdle currently ranks top five among all running backs in:
- Rush yards over expected per carry - 1.24
- Success rate - 51 percent
- Yards after contact per carry - 3.86
Chuba Hubbard is bottom five in the first two metrics and bottom 10 in the third. Recognizing the efficiency disparity between his backs, Panthers head coach Dave Canales conceded on Monday that Dowdle needs to see more work.
Dave Canales on the difference in production between Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard:
— Carolina Blitz (@KeepBlitzin) October 27, 2025
“These are definitely conversations we’re going to have” pic.twitter.com/iCTapWMkEu
The Panthers get an ugly matchup on the road versus the Packers this week, but Dowdle has played well enough to overcome stout defenses if he earns a larger workload. All signs point to that happening in Week 9.
Start: Chase Brown, Bengals
This one depends on Joe Flacco drawing the start. Assuming Journeyman Joe suits up this week, Brown will push for an RB1 ranking. Brown is PFF’s No. 2 graded runner since Flacco took over. He is second in yards after contact per carry and has forced the second-most missed tackles. Brown had zero carries of 15+ yards before Flacco. He has three over the past three weeks. Now he gets to tee off on a Chicago defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs.
Sit: Alvin Kamara, Saints
Fantasy managers can throw in the towel on Kamara. The former superstar sits at 41st in yards after contact per carry. No one has a lower success rate than him and only Tyrone Tracy is averaging a worse rush yards over expected per attempt. His receiving efficiency has also fallen off the map. He went from averaging 1.75 yards per route run in 2024 to .72 in 2025. The Saints are two-touchdown underdogs to the Rams and Kamara doesn’t have elite passing-game production to save him from negative game script.
Sit: Jordan Mason, Vikings
Aaron Jones returned from injured reserve last week and immediately slashed Mason’s role. Mason set season-lows in
- Snap share - 34 percent
- Carry share - 36 percent
- Route rate - 22 percent
Even if Mason’s role rebounds, Week 9 won’t be the time to capitalize on that. He and the Vikings are 8.5-point underdogs to the Lions on the road. The Lions are a clear pass funnel, having faced a +3% pass rate over expected this year.
► Wide Receivers
Start: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals
For MHJ, it doesn’t matter who is under center this week; we start any wide receiver with a pulse against the Cowboys and don’t look back. Dallas’s defense is beatable in a variety of ways, but they are particularly susceptible to deep shots. They have given up four more deep completions (20+ aDOT) for 161 more yards and four more touchdowns than any other defense in the league. They aren’t just the worst unit at guarding the long ball. They are in a class of their own. MHJ is fourth in the NFL in deep catches (seven) and sixth in deep yards (215).
Start: Ladd McConkey, Chargers
“The Laddaissance” is in full swing. McConkey has 27 catches for 294 yards and three scores over his past four weeks. Quentin Johnston has been active for the past two games and it hasn’t made a difference. McConkey has a 31 percent target share over that span. More importantly, the Chargers are treating him as their No. 1 wide receiver with a 33 percent first-read target share.
Sit: Quentin Johnston, Chargers
McConkey’s return to the lineup has decimated Johnston’s fantasy outlook. Johnston has seven targets since returning from his hamstring injury, good for a seven percent target share. He has just 11 percent of the team’s air yards over the past two weeks. His role declined in Week 8 in particular. He ran 79 percent of the routes — a good mark for most receivers but one that is well below Johnston’s season-long average — and was not targeted once. Fantasy managers should take a wait-and-see approach with Johnston going forward.
Sit: Darnell Mooney, Falcons
Mooney was unable to take advantage of Drake London’s absence last week. He earned a disastrous 13 percent target share and caught one pass for 11 yards. Mooney has earned more than five targets in one game this year. He is averaging a career-worst mark of 6.3 yards per target. His 1.11 YPRR is the second-worst mark of his six-year career. With London likely back for Week 9, none of that looks likely to change anytime soon.
► Tight End
Start: Oronde Gadsden, Chargers
Gadsden is a top five fantasy tight end. Even if you drafted an elite tight end, Gadsden makes for a great FLEX play. Gadsden has earned a 20 percent target share and a 23 percent air yards share over the past three weeks. He ran a route on 81 percent of the team’s dropbacks during that stretch and hit a season-high route rate of 91 percent in Week 8. Gadsden is currently PFF’s No. 1 tight end in receiving grade. He ranks fourth in yards per route run and seventh in ESPN’s Open Score.
Start: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Kincaid currently leads all tight ends in yards per route run (2.52) and is sixth in targets per route run (.22). He is the TE8 by points per game despite running just 20.5 routes per game. That won’t be an issue this week with the Bills being 2.5-point dogs to the Chiefs in a game with a 52.5 total. In a high-octane shootout with Kansas City, Kincaid might work his way into the top half of the TE1 ranks.
Sit: Colston Loveland, Bears
Cole Kmet appears to be available for Week 9 after missing last week’s game with a back issue. Loveland has appeared in five games with Kmet active. His best route rate is 63 percent and his best target share is 17 percent. Those both came in the game Kmet left with the back injury. Before that, an 11 percent target share was Loveland’s high-water mark. Expect a committee approach at tight end for the Bears this week, rendering both players poor fantasy options.
Sit: Evan Engram, Broncos
If Nix is a fade, so is his part-time tight end. Engram has topped 60 percent of the routes in a game once this year and his peak is 66 percent. He does not have a game with a target share over 20 percent and has hit double-digit fantasy points one time. His best weekly finish is TE12.
