You might recall that on these same pages last year, I suggested spending many of the early draft picks in your dynasty startup draft on wide receivers, building around that position while waiting to add your quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends. A year later, not much has changed. With the growing popularity of point per reception (PPR) leagues featuring multiple flex spots, you might be able to start as many as five wide receivers on a weekly basis. Considering this is the position offering the most consistent and highest upside of the four fantasy spots, wide receiver is still where your focus should be early in a dynasty draft.
Before we look at some new information, let’s take a look back at the strategy I previously discussed. In short, when building a new dynasty team, you should lock down multiple wideouts in the first few rounds before filling your other three positions (or defense/kicker.) The value of both quarterbacks and running backs have been falling over the past few years, allowing dynasty owners to find value at those positions much later than in the past.
Not only do I suggest building around the wide receiver position, but I want to acquire as many young players as possible also. This can often lead to my team taking its lumps in the league’s inaugural season but often leaves me in prime position to compete for titles year after year beyond Season One.
One important tool that can aid in preparing for a dynasty draft is average draft position, commonly referred to as ADP. Each month, I collect dynasty ADP through multiple startup mock drafts. This exercise has helped me to hone in on exactly what positions to target in different parts of a draft.
Using recent ADP data, let’s take a look at what a team might look like using this idea of building around youth and wide receivers.
Round 1: Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
There are several options in the first round, including Amari Cooper, Mike Evans or DeAndre Hopkins, but coming off a breakout second season for the Jaguars and being paired with an equally young Blake Bortles at quarterback, Allen Robinson looks like a dynasty asset that won’t be going away soon. It’s hard to see Robinson repeating his 1,400 yard, 14 touchdown output, but he has room to regress and still be highly valuable for many years.
Round 2: Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints
Another player who enjoyed a breakout second season was the Saints’ Brandin Cooks, who stepped in for the departed Jimmy Graham and aging Marques Colston. While the team added rookie Michael Thomas, Drew Brees is still there, and Cooks should see all the targets he can handle. Paired with Robinson, I now have two established wideouts, both under 23 years old.
Round 3: Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
There are multiple options when targeting a third round wideout, but none have Matthews’ combination of youth and production. Through two seasons, Matthews is averaging over 75 receptions and 900 yards for the Eagles. The only concern comes with the new Philadelphia coaching staff, who seems set to focus on the run game. For now, Matthews is clearly the team’s best weapon, and he gives me a huge advantage as my WR3.
Round 4: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
It’s nearly time to move away from wide receivers, but I’ll grab one more, the Seahawks’ electrifying youngster, Tyler Lockett, first. Lockett was a pleasant surprise in his rookie season, providing the Seahawks with a spark on both offense and special teams. Call me crazy, but that Doug Baldwin season still seems like a bit of a fluke, and I project Lockett to see a bigger piece of the pie in 2016 and going forward.
Round 5: Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnatti Bengals
As I mentioned earlier, I normally like to wait even longer on the tight end position, but I can’t ignore the value offered by Tyler Eifert. He’s losing some dynasty value due to his offseason surgery and the potential to miss some early action in 2016, but dynasty is a long-term game, and Eifert can be my starting tight end for years to come.
Round 6: T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
I finally grab my first running back, and it might be a surprise, considering the offseason moves made by the Jacksonville Jaguars. In this range, I like second year back T.J. Yeldon, even after his team signed Chris Ivory away from the Jets. Yeldon was barely used in the red zone, while Ivory led the league in carries inside the five-yard line, but Ivory has also had trouble staying healthy and is already 28 years old, which is ancient for a journeyman running back.
Round 7: Devin Funchess, WR, Carolina Panthers
After a brief reprieve, I’m back to acquiring young wide receivers, namely Panthers second year man Devin Funchess. Funchess was a bit of a disappointment in his rookie year but has all the talent needed to excel in the league and is in a nice spot, paired with Cam Newton. I’ll be very interested to see if Kelvin Benjamin can return to his WR1 role or if Funchess can eat into those targets with a year under his belt.
Round 8: Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions
Although I waited until the eighth round to grab my second running back, there are still plenty of quality options. I’d opt for Lions RB Ameer Abdullah, who looks like he could own the bulk of the Detroit backfield with veteran Joique Bell finally gone. The team still has pass catcher Theo Riddick, but the early carries should go to Abdullah.
Round 9: Karlos Williams, RB, Buffalo Bills
The backfield in Buffalo is certainly getting crowded, considering the team returns LeSean McCoy and last year’s surprise, Karlos Williams and also drafted rookie Jonathan Williams, but I’ll still take a chance on the second year back who could make McCoy expendable if he repeats his 2015 performance. There were actually few appealing options in this range, meaning in an actual draft, I would be looking to trade up or down from this pick to find a player I highly coveted.
Round 10: Sammie Coates, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Things are going well for Sammie Coates this offseason, largely at the expense of his teammate, Martavis Bryant. After Bryant’s season-long suspension was announced, it was Coates who was pegged to take over, and he’s been receiving praise in early practices. Coates has a strong chance to earn the second wide receiver role for the Steelers, which has usually been a very valuable spot for fantasy owners to take advantage of.
Let’s stop to take a look at what the team looks like through 10 rounds. As I planned, there is a heavy focus on the wide receiver position, and nearly all of my players are entering their second or third year, forming the young corps I’d hoped for.
QB:
RB: Yeldon, Abdullah, Williams
WR: Robinson, Cooks, Matthews, Lockett, Funchess, Coates
TE: Eifert
Over the next few rounds, I would intentionally target running backs and a pair of productive quarterbacks.
Round 11: Wendell Smallwood, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Surprisingly, I have no rookies through the first 10 picks, a rarity for one of my startup dynasty teams. That changes with the addition of the Eagles’ rookie back Wendell Smallwood. To be fair, this pick is more about Ryan Mathews and less about the small school rookie. Mathews is left as the lead back after the Eagles sent DeMarco Murray packing, and already this offseason, we’ve seen trade rumors, early injury reports and suggestions of a running back by committee. None of this is good for Mathews, but it could provide Smallwood with an early opportunity, upping his dynasty value in short order.
Round 12: Hunter Henry, TE, San Diego Chargers
I typically wouldn’t take another tight end this early, especially a rookie, but the 12th round is another one that looks barren. If I couldn’t make a move out of this round, I’m grabbing the heir apparent to future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates. Henry was the first tight end off the board in April’s NFL Draft and obviously fits my youth-based approach. If Eifert can get healthy, I shouldn’t need Henry for a couple of years, which is good news since it typically takes young tight ends a couple of years to become fantasy-relevant.
Round 13: Phillip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
It’s time to grab a quarterback, and with so much value falling, there are plenty to choose from. I’ll go with the Chargers’ Phillip Rivers, who is performing at a high level in his mid-30s. Rivers was QB12 last year, and with a healthy Keenan Allen and the addition of Henry and former Browns wide receiver Travis Benjamin, there’s expectations those numbers could improve. Quarterback is clearly a waiting game at this point, and considering it is so inexpensive to acquire help at the position, I’m not worried about player age like I am with other positions.
Round 14: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins
After waiting so long, I’ll go ahead and fill my second quarterback spot with a younger option, Ryan Tannehill. The hiring of head coach Adam Gase and another added wideout in Leonte Carroo has the Tannehill hype growing, yet his price remains very reasonable. If Tannehill can make the jump under his new coaching staff, he should outperform some of my competitors’ starting quarterbacks.
Round 15: Jaelen Strong, WR, Houston Texans
At this late point in the draft, it becomes challenging to stick with the youth-focused plan, considering most young players have been thoroughly picked over. I’ll opt for another second year player, Texans’ wideout Jaelen Strong, who hasn’t had the best offseason. First, he dealt with some off-field issues, and then the Texans drafted Will Fuller in the first round. Based on his early draft range from a season ago, Strong is the kind of player who could quickly gain value if he shows any signs of life on the field. If so, I’d likely take that opportunity to trade him and make a profit on this late pick.
Round 16: Charcandrick West, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
With little left at the wide receiver position and feeling content with my quarterbacks and tight ends, I take one last running back in Chiefs backup Charcandrick West. With Jamaal Charles missing much of the season in 2015, West was a surprise who looked like an NFL starter in his time before dealing with his own injury. Kansas City rewarded him with a contract extension and considering Charles may not have many years left as a high-level performer, West is worth a shot late in the draft.
QB: Rivers, Tannehill
RB: Yeldon, Abdullah, Williams, Smallwood, West
WR: Robinson, Cooks, Matthews, Lockett, Funchess, Coates, Strong
TE: Eifert, Henry
While this team is likely to be the youngest in the league, it could still compete for a playoff spot if things break my way. If not, I’d be able to add a high rookie draft pick to this group and should be a strong contender for years to come.
In the spirit of full transparency, let’s take a look at a different way to build a team with the intention of contending immediately. This team would be older, but more balanced thanks to selecting running backs earlier in the draft.
QB: Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater
RB: Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram, LeSean McCoy, Kenyan Drake
WR: Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, Larry Fitzgerald, Kendall Wright, Mike Thomas
TE: Delanie Walker, Maxx Williams
While this team is set to contend for 2016, there could be some major question marks entering 2017 and beyond. While I prefer the former option, know you could come out of a startup draft with this team and a strong chance at a Year One title.
