Welcome to the Dynasty Three & Out, where each week we’ll focus on three players gaining value and three others losing dynasty value based on the latest news and performances on the field.
Note: Any dynasty ADP or dynasty trades referenced in this article can be found at dynastyleaguefootball.com
Risers:
Keenan Allen, WR LAC
It wasn’t that long ago that Chargers WR Keenan Allen appeared in this article for all of the wrong reasons, posting five consecutive finishes outside of the top 30 fantasy receivers. Some argued his slump was matchup based, while others, myself included, pointed to the crowded Chargers depth chart. Whatever the issue was, it seems to have been corrected as Allen has put up consecutive top three finishes at his position, highlighted by his huge game on the Thanksgiving Day stage, catching 11 passes for 172 yards and a touchdown against the reeling Cowboys. In that same game, Chargers rookie WR Mike Williams suffered a knee injury that is expected to keep him out of the lineup for a short period, meaning Allen should have a strong chance to keep this recent hot streak going. Allen currently ranks as the WR5 on the season despite his cold streak in the season’s second month.
Through Allen’s ups and down, including a pair of season-ending injuries over the past two seasons, his dynasty ADP has remained relatively constant, usually hovering somewhere in the second-round range. Late in the pre-season, he actually fell out of the second-round with an ADP of 27, but he’s now back to a current rank of 19 overall, making him the WR10. At just 25 years old and missing large parts of two seasons, Allen is still a fresh dynasty asset, though many will overlook him in favor of the “shiny, new toys” that dynasty owners often chase.
Ricky Seals-Jones, TE ARZ
What a ride for Cardinals rookie TE Ricky Seals-Jones! By this point, you’ve probably at least heard of Seals-Jones, but he may not be the flash in the pan that some are labeling him. Seals-Jones entered Texas A&M as a five-star WR recruit, one of the most coveted in the nation, and his career got off to a strong start as a redshirt freshman starter, but his production and playing time as his college career went on, resulting in him being an undrafted free agent, despite leaving school a year early. Seals-Jones landed with the Cardinals and while they have few solid fantasy relevant options at the tight end position, he failed to even get on the field for much of the season, playing briefly in Week Five. With QBs Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton both out with injuries, Arizona turned to third-stringer Blaine Gabbert in Week 11 and it seems the often-discussed “backup connection” is coming true.
In two games with Gabbert, Seals-Jones has seen his playing time jump from almost none, he’s seeing opportunity and he’s producing. In Week 11, Seals-Jones played 14% of the snaps and that increased to 23% in Week 12. While that still puts him behind TEs Jermaine Gresham and Troy Niklas in terms of playing time, he did lead all Cardinals tight ends in targets and fantasy production in each of the past two games. In fact, over the past two weeks only, Seals-Jones is the top-scoring fantasy tight end in the league. With limited playing time and a ridiculous 1.5 fantasy points per snap over the two-game span, Seals-Jones clearly won’t be able to maintain this efficiency, but with his opportunity expected to increase, he won’t have to in order to stay relevant. Seals-Jones is likely still on your league’s waiver wire, but he should be a priority add as his value continues to climb.
Tyler Kroft, TE CIN
Bengals oft-injured tight end Tyler Eifert has been out of action since Week Two, missing time with a back injury before ultimately choosing season-ending surgery to repair the injury. Since he was placed on the injured reserve list, Eifert also required a knee surgery to clean up an existing issue. This has seemingly been the last straw for fantasy players frustrated with Eifert’s lack of availability. In his place, new starter TE Tyler Kroft has quietly played very well, posting six games among the top 13 fantasy scorers and currently ranks as the TE13 on the season. Since Week Three, when he took over as the starter, Kroft is the TE10 based on fantasy points per game.
While Kroft has limited upside and has been touchdown dependent as a fantasy scorer, he has a good opportunity to retain the starting job in 2018 as Eifert enters free agency. Kroft is still very affordable, as his current dynasty ADP of 225 places him in the nineteenth round of startup drafts.
Fallers:
Leonard Fournette, RB JAX
After the first six weeks of the season, Jaguars rookie RB Leonard Fournette was the RB3, averaging over 21 points per game. After that began a rough stretch for the former LSU star. Fournette missed Week Seven with a bum ankle, the same injury that kept him out of action for much of his final college season and then was a surprise inactive due to a violation of team rules in Week Nine. Over the past three games, Fournette has shared time with RB T.J. Yeldon, playing only 55% of the snaps, including being out-snapped by Yeldon in Week 12. Fournette now has 169 rushing yards over the past three games combined and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week Six. With his high draft profile and early-season production, Fournette is not going away as a top dynasty asset, but he’s being challenged for the top rookie spot in dynasty leagues and has almost no chance to move into the top 12 in upcoming off-season dynasty drafts.
Fournette first appeared in our dynasty ADP in February, debuting with an ADP of 25. He quickly climbed up to 15 overall in our current November data, but is in for a slight fall towards the later portion of the second-round. After six games appearing inside the top 14 fantasy backs, Fournette’s past three finishes are RB43, RB18 and RB36, pending Monday Night Football.
Jay Ajayi, RB PHI
One of the biggest busts of the fantasy season has to be Eagles RB Jay Ajayi. After a pair of 200-yard rushing games, Ajayi was one of the biggest dynasty risers a year ago, leaping into the top 50 according to dynasty ADP. Despite sporadic production, Ajayi saw his dynasty value consistently climb over the off-season, reaching a peak ADP of 21 in July. Since that time, and especially since the season began, Ajayi’s stock has dropped and his current ADP is 38.
In seven games with the Dolphins, Ajayi failed to finish as a weekly RB1, with only two games inside the top 20 weekly backs. Miami shockingly dealt Ajayi to the Eagles and the dynasty community reacted. Playing in the high-scoring Eagles offense, which lacked a top RB seemed like the perfect spot for Ajayi. In three games with the Eagles, Ajayi still has yet to rank among the top 12 backs and is sharing carries with RBs LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement. In fact, over the past three games, Ajayi has played just 25% of the Eagles offensive snaps as compared to 47% for Blount. With the Eagles winning in part due to this triple threat committee attack, there is little reason to make a change. Barring an injury, Ajayi is likely a part-time player for the remainder of the season.
Eric Decker, WR TEN
After years of being an underrated fantasy producer, it seems that the end might be near for Titans WR Eric Decker. After suffering multiple serious injuries that ended his 2016 season, the Jets chose to part ways with their veteran receiver, though he was quickly scooped up by the Tennessee Titans and appeared to have a strong chance to be the leading receiver for young QB Marcus Mariota. Although Decker has stayed healthy this season, the production simply hasn’t been there as WR Rishard Matthews and TE Delanie Walker have been the top targets in the offense. Decker is just the WR68 on the season and has only one weekly finish inside the top 30. Here are his weekly fantasy ranks in chronological order: WR71, WR64, WR58, WR88, WR51, WR13, WR N/A (no stats), WR33, WR78, WR52, WR62 (pending Monday Night Football.)
After consistently hanging around the bottom portion of the dynasty ADP top 100, Decker has plummeted to a current ADP of 181. It is clear that Decker’s value has tumbled and now dynasty owners need to actually question if he is even worth a roster spot at this point. With Matthews producing and the Titans investing in rookie WRs Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor, it is difficult to see Decker’s role growing in Nashville.
