It’s now Week 8, the half-way point of the fantasy regular season, and with it we get some good news for IDP gamers with the projected return of Bengals LB and former LB1, Vontaze Burfict, not to mention the breaking story that elite DE, Jason Pierre-Paul has signed a one-year contract with the Giants following his off-season firework accident that severely injured his right hand. JPP has been given a two-week roster exemption to get himself into playing condition, but jumps out as a player well worth picking up in all formats, because even at 80% of fitness, he’d be a borderline DL1. Burfict is also a must-add, having led the league in tackles in 2013 with 171. Both players will likely be eased back into action, so neither should be immediately plugged into line-ups, but they should provide an upgrade for most rosters.
We’ll spend a bit longer this week on reviewing the IDP goings on around the league. More than anything at this stage of the season it’s important to have a good handle on the IDP landscape in order to let you make moves, be it waiver additions or trades, to solidify your own roster, or just prevent others from strengthening. SO without further ado…
Week 7 Observations
Michael Bennett is having a career year for the Seahawks. A 3.5 sack haul on Thursday Night Football took his season total to 6.5 (leads the league), while his four tackles for loss means he now has 11 on the year, a figure only bested by J.J. Watt (14). Bennett has already jumped up rankings this season to become a DL2, but is now pushing to edge into the low-end of the DL1 tier… Team-mate Cliff Avril has been less successful in pulling down the opposing signal-caller (just 3.5 sacks), but has actually been more disruptive in the backfield, charting 30 pressures outside of his sacks, second-most in the league. He managed 1.5 sacks on Thursday… Aaron Lynch has been a threat on the edge for the 49ers since he got a significant boost in playing time in Week 3. He had two sacks of his own on Thursday, taking his season total to five… Michael Wilhoite isn’t slowing down, posting his third straight game with double digit tackles. That’s now 42 total tackles in three weeks… Stephon Tuitt sat in Week 7, a disappointment for his owners who had been riding his production so far this year, and were expecting a decent day against a poor Chiefs offensive line… Ryan Shazier finally got back on the field though, playing 60-of-64 snaps. His production was not the LB1-like numbers we expected, just four total tackles and half a sack… Eric Berry recorded his first interception since his return, also adding three tackles for loss. It was Berry’s first double-digit fantasy score this season, but he remains a mid to low-end DB2… Rookie CB Marcus Peters has his second consecutive game without conceding a touchdown, although he still leads all corners in having allowed six scores this year… Robert Quinn was blanked in his matchup with Joe Thomas, although he only play 32 snaps. It’s another reminder that elite pass-blocking tackles often get the better of defensive lineman, despite the low snap count for Quinn… With Alec Ogletree missing from the Rams lineup, James Laurinaitis has not been living up to expectations by posting big tackle numbers. In fact he hasn’t had a single game with ten or more tackles this season, and has yet to surpass four solo tackles yet either. He’s still just a borderline LB2/3… The production has instead gone to Mark Barron, who has played 50+ snaps in the last three games, and 79-of-79 last week as the starting strong safety. Week 7 saw him rack up 16 total tackles (10 solo), two of which were for loss. Barron’s a top-end DB2 in his current role… William Moore left the field after just 20 snaps due to a groin injury, and isn’t scheduled to practice on Wednesday. Kemal Ishmael replaced him and will do again if Moore can’t go in Week 8… Paul Worrilow’s poor production continues, as he recorded his fourth game of the season with five or less total tackles. An interception this week masks the fact that of his five total tackles, just one was a solo. Worrilow is sliding now the LB2 tier quickly… The return of Avery Williamson for the Titans as an every-down linebacker meant Zach Brown (32-of-74 snaps) was a role player again this week, with Wesley Woodyard also in front of him on the depth chart for playing time… Cameron Jordan followed up his Week 6 dominance with a similar display in Week 7, posting two sacks, two hits and six hurries, not to mention a couple of batted passes. Perhaps an even more impressive figure is the fact he’s played 91.9 percent of defensive snaps, an other-worldly figure for a defensive lineman… Dannell Ellerbe remains a significant part of the defense, and joins Stephone Anthony as a three-down linebacker. Ellerbe is worth adding as LB3 for the rest of the season… Despite out-snapping Jerrell Freeman (68-of-88), D’Qwell Jackson (88 snaps), it was Freeman who recorded more tackles this week. Jackson is still a top-half LB1, while Freeman remains a solid LB2. Snaps (opportunities) are key here, so don’t over-value Freeman… Rookie Henry Anderson had his second poor showing (just one assisted tackle on both games), but is still a player to keep an eye on. If he gets dropped, stash him on your bench… The Vikings got sacks from the D-Line, linebackers and secondary this week and were a constant threat to Matt Stafford. Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith all had good games and continue to be excellent fantasy assets… Stephon Tulloch continues to be a role player, having played less than 70 percent of snaps in the last three weeks… Jadeveon Clowney recorded his first NFL sack this week, perhaps the only positive thing for the Texans during their Week 7 thrashing by Miami… J.J. Watt still managed two sacks of course, showing why he’s an automatic top-two defensive lineman week in, week out… Cameron Wake (two sacks, three hurries, one batted pass and two forced fumbles) and Ndamukong Suh (two sacks, three hits, one hurry, two batted passes) both seem to be rejuvenated with interim Head Coach Dan Campbell in charge. What a difference a trip to London makes… Reshad Jones’ monster season continued with a pick-six. He also managed to record his fifth game with seven or more solo tackles, and is a threat to be the No.1 fantasy safety every week… Sheldon Richardson hasn’t missed a beat since returning from suspension, recording a sack in both games so far. He’s straight back into a fringe DL1 ranking… Calvin Pryor left the game this week with an ankle injury and didn’t return. This isn’t his first ding this season, so is worth monitoring… Leonard Williams played 70.1 percent of snaps, his lowest snap count since Week 1… Rob Ninkovich played 72-of-74 snaps, but posted his fourth straight game without a sack. A closer look shows that Ninkovich has six hits and eight hurries this season, so don’t write him off quite yet… Dont’a Hightower recorded the highest PFF grade of any 4-3 OLB this week, and looked fully recovered from his rib injury. He’s a reliable LB2 moving forwards… Jerod Mayo (1 snap) and Jabaal Sheard (zero snaps) were not featured in the gameplan this week. Mayo shouldn’t be owned in any formats, and Sheard only in deep ones, and he may be a drop candidate next week… Keenan Robinson continues to be a fantasy liability. He has only surpassed four solo tackles in ONE game, and of his seven total tackles in Week 7, only two were solos. Robinson has plummeted to a LB3 ranking, a huge shift from his pre-season projections, when it was hoped he might take a step towards low-end LB1 status… Interceptions in each of the last two weeks might have had owners in cornerback required leagues scrambling to pick up Bashaud Breeland, and he repaid them with 13 total tackles last week. Breeland is a solid enough cornerback, and worth owning if you have to start one in your league… Malcolm Smith doesn’t seem to know how to stop scoring. I got on the Smith-train relatively early, thankfully, as he has been a fantasy phenom all season. This week he posted a season-high in solo tackles (11), posting his third double-digit tackle performance of the season. He now has 51 total tackles, four for a loss, three sacks, an interception and a forced fumble. Smith is flirting with LB1 status right now… Fellow Raiders linebacker, Khalil Mack, who is now DL eligible on some host sites, only shows two solos in the stat column, but also had five hurries. Mack is a borderline DL1, but only a LB3/4… Manti Te’o didn’t play in Week 7, but it was Donald Butler who saw the field (55 snaps) rather than rookie Denzel Perryman (12). Butler has shown he cannot be trusted as a fantasy producer in the past (yes, he has burned me!) and I wouldn’t recommend him in any formats… The Buffalo pass rush problems continue. Their starting front four only managed a single sack against the Jags, courtesy of Mario Williams, although they did all combine for one hit and 12 hurries. Williams slips to mid DL2 value, while Hughes has fallen to be a DL3… Both Bills linebackers, Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham were disappointing too, but it is still Brown who is the better fantasy option. Bradham, like Hughes, has fallen in rankings following a very underwhelming start to the season… Rookie cornerback Ronald Darby added a sack to his Week 7 totals, and is a top-five fantasy cornerback… Telvin Smith is playing some lights out football. He recorded a pick-six of E.J. Manuel this week, and continued his trend of posting nine or more total tackles in every game this season. Smith profiled as a player to invest in pre-season and has moved well into the LB1 tier based on his form in the first half of the season. I’ve been very impressed…. Veteran team-mate Paul Posluszny managed seven total tackles and an interception of his own, making the Jags pairing one of the most productive inside linebacker duos in the league… Jon Beason was reinserted into the lineup as the starting middle linebacker last week, playing 63-of-76 snaps. There was no sign of Uani’ Unga. I wouldn’t trust Beason or Unga in my lineups. If you can trade Uga for anything of value, do it… Mychal Kendricks returned, and played 55-of-64 snaps, alongside Jordan Hicks, who played all 64 snaps. Neither player was particularly outstanding, Hicks managing six solos and Kendricks eight total tackles (three solo) and a sack. Kendricks takes a small hit in value until he shows me his LB1 scoring potential again, while Hicks remains a low-end LB2. Keep an eye on Kiko Alonso’s status in the meantime… DT Kawann Short exploded to the tune of three sacks last week, after two the week before. He’s been well graded all season by PFF and appeals as a speculative pickup as a DL. In leagues that require a DT, Short should be owned… Jared Allen posted his first sack as a Carolina Panther, then duly followed up with another. Allen isn’t the player he once was, but also isn’t ready to be sent out to pasture either. I like him as a matchup play for the rest of the season… C.J. Mosley continues to struggle from a tackle perspective, recording just six this week, but did at least record a sack. For a player who looked so good last season, his production is concerning. He’s starting to fall down rankings… Cardinals DBs Tyrann Mathieu and Deone Bucannon have established themselves as dependable weekly starters, but Tony Jefferson has struggled to add him name to that list. Having only played 66 percent of defensive snaps, his opportunities are limited, but recording his second interception of the season helps his cause. Jefferson has notched up five or more total tackles in five games this season, adding four splash plays (one being a pick-six), but is a risky fantasy play based on his on-field opportunities. He’s a boom-or-bust DB3 still.
Guys I Love
Ziggy Ansah vs Chiefs
We’ve covered it off most weeks, but it bears repeating, the Chiefs O-Line has essentially been a turnstile this season, allowing a league leading 17 sacks. Ansah, who has six sacks already on the year, just 0.5 behind league-leaders Michael Bennett, Carlos Dunlap and Chandler Jones, will be looking to bolster that total on Sunday. Despite just a single sack in the last two weeks, Ansah has also had five hits and nine hurries, so has been unlucky not to be more productive. I get the feeling he has a multi-sack game this week.
Greg Hardy vs Seahawks
Seattle have only been marginally better than the Chiefs, allowing 16 sacks through seven games, so Greg Hardy will be chomping at the bit this week. Hardy played 51-of-53 snaps last week, and added another sack to the two he recorded in his debut. He’s a man on a mission, especially with rumors that Dallas wants to offer him a contract extension.
Cameron Jordan vs Giants
On paper this looks like a bad matchup as the Giants are one of the toughest teams to score points on as a defensive lineman, but I’m a strong proponent of playing a hot hand, which Jordan certainly is. As mentioned previously Jordan has five sacks, three hits and 12 hurries in the past two weeks, and is also playing over 90 percent of defensive snaps. He’s almost permanently on the field and has been a constant presence in opposing backfields. That’s a man I’m plugging into all lineups.
Melvin Ingram vs Ravens
No team allows more points to inside/middle linebackers than the Ravens, and Ingram, who has played 96.4 percent of defensive snaps, is an intriguing option in deeper leagues. Ideally you’d plug and play Manti Te’o in this matchup too, but he missed Week 7 and his status for Week 8 is unclear. You can’t trust Denzel Perryman to see enough snaps, and I’ve been fooled enough times by Donald Butler, so I know better. Fool me once, shame on me…
Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright vs Cowboys
When you’ve got one of the league’s best run-blocking offensive lines, and have you star quarterback and wide receiver injured, it’s not surprising your offense keeps things relative simple and in front of them. The result is that the Cowboys are a fantastic matchup for opposing linebackers. Bobby Wagner returned last week, and remains a top-end LB1, while K.J. Wright has been brilliant on the weakside. I’d upgrade Wright to a low-end LB2 this week.
Ron Parker and Eric Berry vs Lions
The Lions are one of the best matchups for opposing safeties, which is great news for owners for Parker and Berry, who should score more like decent DB2s this week, rather than DB3s. Neither player has been as good as owners may have hoped, but Week 8 may be the trigger for bigger and better.
Mike Adams and Dwight Lowery vs Panthers
Veterans Adams and Lowery have been excellent when on the field this season, both scoring the DB1s. That won’t change against a Panthers team that has been giving up 19 ppg to opposing safeties (third-most). Adams returned to practice on Wednesday after missing Week 7, and is the preferred of the two, although there is not much in it.
Guys I Don’t Like
Michael Bennett vs Cowboys
Despite my gushing praise for Bennett, he needs to be downgraded this week in a matchup with LT Tyron Smith, who is still yet to concede a sack this season. I say a slight downgrade as Bennett only lineups on the right for 37.7 percent of his pass rush snaps, so he’ll still have opportunity when not matched up with Smith. Teammate Cliff Avril plays less than 20 percent on the right side so will be large unaffected.
Cameron Heyward vs Bengals
Heyward has the highly unenviable task of facing-off against another member of the Zero Sack Club in LT Andrew Whitworth. In fact Whitworth hasn’t even allowed a quarterback hit yet this year. Heyward’s tackle production gives him a higher floor than most, but a sackless week will limit him to being a low-end DL2 at best.
NaVorro Bowman and Michael Wilhoite vs Rams
St Louis have been a terrible matchup for opposing linebackers so far this year, a combination of early season offensive ineptitude, and lately Todd Gurley just running over people. Bowman has long been a matchup-proof LB1, and Wilhoite’s recent form has been outstanding, which poses a quandary for fantasy owners. It’s hard to slide Bowman outside of the top-12, while Wilhoite’s 31 solo tackles in three weeks will keep him in and around LB3 status, despite the poor matchup.
Stephen Tulloch, Danny Trevathan, Keenan Robinson, Jon Beason, Uani’ Unga
All five of the above players should be avoided in all but the deepest formats. Whether it’s a limited snap count (Tulloch and Trevathan), poor production (Robinson) or injuries and undefined roles (Beason and Unga), all of them are risky plays until things change.
Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd vs Giants
A reputation for errant passes and interceptions isn’t realized in big fantasy scores by safeties against the G-Men, and in fact they are one of the worst possible matchups. Vaccaro has been on a rebuild mission for his fantasy reputation after failing to live up to DB1 expectations, while Byrd, a deep center-field free safety, has only just returned from injury. I’d have had both Vaccaro no better than a low-end DB2 on a good week, and Byrd is matchup-dependent, so downgrade Vaccaro to a DB3, and consider Byrd un-startable.
Chris Conte vs Falcons
I’m a Conte supporter, and expect him to be a surprisingly effective fantasy safety this season, having recorded five or more total tackles in all the games he has completed. He’s worth grabbing off the waiver wire if he’s there, but don’t put him straight into your lineup as a starter as Atlanta only give up 12.3 ppg to safeties (third-worst).
