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Inside the Rankings

The rankings you will find in these pages are an average. We took the ranks of Evan Silva, Pat Daugherty, Raymond Summerlin, Nick Mensio, Rich Hribar and Jesse Pantuosco to formulate a composite score. Of course, there was no way we were all going to agree on every player. Some of us had unique feelings on certain guys, making them outliers. Here are the rankings and explanations:

Quarterback Rankings

StaffPlayerEvanRayPatNickRichJesse
QB1Aaron Rodgers111111
QB2Tom Brady242222
QB3Russell Wilson326553
QB4Cam Newton454346
QB5Deshaun Watson635765
QB6Carson Wentz763674
QB7Drew Brees5711437
QB8Kirk Cousins1088988
QB9Matthew Stafford89131199
QB10Ben Roethlisberger12141081010
QB11Jimmy Garoppolo14119101911
QB12Andrew Luck24107121212
QB13Marcus Mariota91317151118
QB14Philip Rivers151512141513
QB15Patrick Mahomes131716131615
QB16Matt Ryan111915181414
QB17Alex Smith171814171317
QB18Jared Goff161620162216
QB19Dak Prescott211218201719
QB20Jameis Winston182019192322
QB21Derek Carr192423212020
QB22Mitchell Trubisky202225231821
QB23Blake Bortles222126242425
QB24Andy Dalton232624222524
QB25Ryan Tannehill272522282128
QB26Eli Manning262721302723
QB27Case Keenum252327272626
QB28Joe Flacco282928252829
QB29Tyrod Taylor302830262927
QB30Josh Allen 332933
QB31Sam Bradford34 313131
QB32Josh McCown33 35323030
QB33Baker Mayfield3132342935
QB34Lamar Jackson2934 34 33
QB35Josh Rosen353033
QB36Ryan Fitzpatrick 3531 3332
QB37Sam Darnold323132353434
QB38AJ McCarron 3235

Quarterback Outliers

Raymond Summerlin had Dak Prescott 12. The composite rank was 19.

While there is reason to believe Dak Prescott’s rushing touchdown production over his first two years has been fluky, there seems to be a real overreaction to last season’s finish. In the eight games before Ezekiel Elliott was forced to the sidelines, Prescott was on pace for 3,636 yards, 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Perhaps his 6.2% touchdown rate over that eight-game stretch is not replicable, but his rookie season suggests he should be much closer to that number than his second-half form despite the issues in the receiving corps. Especially with quarterback looking as replaceable as ever, Prescott is the type of upside, bounce-back candidate it makes sense to bet on after the top quarterbacks are gone.

Evan Silva had Matt Ryan 11. The composite rank was 16.
Ryan front-paged our 2017 Fantasy Preview as an overvalued bust after his 2016 MVP year. We had a good idea Ryan would regress, but not to the extent he did. Ryan scored a whopping 7.8 fewer fantasy points per game as his touchdown rate (TDs/pass attempts) was nearly cut in half from 7.1% to 3.8%. Ryan would have thrown 4.3 more touchdown passes had he simply matched his career TD rate (4.6%). Ryan struggled in his first year under ex-OC Kyle Shanahan before his 2016 explosion. With an improved pass-catcher corps, we should similarly expect year-two improvement under now-OC Steve Sarkisian.

Patrick Daugherty had Drew Brees 11. The composite rank was 7.
Brees was typically excellent during his age-38 campaign but posted a 12-year low in yardage (4,334). The same was true for his attempts (536). This, after Brees averaged 5,141 from 2011-16. Brees is due for some positive touchdown regression after last year’s flukily-low total of 23, but the reality is this is a 39-year-old quarterback who is not as aggressive as he once was down the field (Brees does remain accurate when he attempts passes 20 yards or longer). The Saints are also fully re-committed to the run after some imbalanced seasons by head coach Sean Payton’s standards. Brees remains a QB1. His ceiling is just no longer amongst the gods.

Rich Hribar had Jimmy Garoppolo 19. The composite rank was 11.
The QB2 tier is larger than ever this season, so QB rankings won’t always do justice to a player. I have Garoppolo projected for less than a point per game difference from the lowest QB1 in our projections. However, I do find him to be overvalued in early drafts. When I look for a breakout quarterback, I look for two things. Passing touchdown upside and rushing ability. Garoppolo still has question marks in both regards, which makes him mostly a play on the passing yardage potential he showed a year ago. His receiving unit hasn’t shown a lot of TD upside as Pierre Garcon has never scored more than six times in any of his 10 seasons, Marquise Goodwin has eight touchdowns in 55 games played, and George Kittle is still a developing player. Garoppolo also has 19 rushing yards in his seven career starts. In my opinion, if you believe in Garoppolo, you should be looking to grab Garcon, Goodwin and Kittle as those players are actually discounted with respect to their position compared to Garoppolo at his.

Running Back Rankings

StaffPlayerEvanRayPatNickRichJesse
RB1Todd Gurley113131
RB2Le’Veon Bell222212
RB3David Johnson331323
RB4Ezekiel Elliott545444
RB5Alvin Kamara454665
RB6Saquon Barkley666556
RB7Kareem Hunt7879107
RB8Melvin Gordon8108888
RB9Dalvin Cook127107911
RB10Leonard Fournette99131379
RB11Devonta Freeman11149111212
RB12LeSean McCoy101212151110
RB13Jerick McKinnon131111101414
RB14Christian McCaffrey141317141513
RB15Joe Mixon151714121315
RB16Jordan Howard161916161616
RB17Kenyan Drake181515171717
RB18Alex Collins171618192220
RB19Rashaad Penny192319181818
RB20Derrius Guice202625211919
RB21Jay Ajayi242022222121
RB22Lamar Miller221821232327
RB23Derrick Henry252820242025
RB24Sony Michel212723202726
RB25Dion Lewis232126252623
RB26Ronald Jones282424293028
RB27Marshawn Lynch263031272924
RB28Mark Ingram332236312422
RB29Tevin Coleman273334282533
RB30Royce Freeman293430302829
RB31Rex Burkhead302932323531
RB32Chris Thompson412527373140
RB33Aaron Jones323828333738
RB34Jamaal Williams3136 354030
RB35Isaiah Crowell383129393634
RB36Marlon Mack373738383332
RB37Tarik Cohen343937343242
RB38Duke Johnson483242263436
RB39C.J. Anderson354333404637
RB40Kerryon Johnson403554364139
RB41Carlos Hyde364935444935
RB42Giovani Bernard454139 3847
RB43Devontae Booker424544414546
RB44Nick Chubb434445504743
RB45Bilal Powell524746434244
RB46LeGarrette Blount 424348 50
RB47Theo Riddick464840494349
RB48James White474053464445
RB49Peyton Barber44 47 48
RB50Nyheim Hines 46525439
RB51D’Onta Foreman 5542
RB52Kenneth Dixon54 484548
RB53Austin Ekeler50
RB54Charles Sims 50
RB55Ty Montgomery53 41 5255
RB56Doug Martin 5150
RB57Corey Grant 4755
RB58Latavius Murray 51
RB59Chris Carson 51
RB60Matt Breida49 5352
RB61Corey Clement 50 535154
RB62Jordan Wilkins5152 54
RB63Frank Gore55 49 53
RB64C.J. Prosise 5451
RB65Javorius Allen 53
RB66Darren Sproles 55 52
RB67T.J. Yeldon 55

Running Back Outliers

Patrick Daugherty had Devonta Freeman 9. The composite rank was 11.
Last season was Freeman’s worst year as a feature back, and he still finished as the RB12 in standard and RB14 in PPR. Freeman’s struggles were mostly due to injury, with knee and concussion issues especially impacting his second half. Despite Freeman’s woes, 1B backup Tevin Coleman could not take advantage, providing a measure of clarity to their timeshare. An all-purpose talent with soft hands and a nose for the end zone, Freeman should bounce back to the RB6-10 range.

Nick Mensio had LeSean McCoy 15. The composite rank was 12.
McCoy gutted through numerous nicks and bruises last season and averaged a career-worst 3.97 yards per carry. He’s now 30 years old playing in an offense where he’s the lone playmaker. Defenses will have no reason not to sell out to stop him with A.J. McCarron/Josh Allen under center and a receiver trio led by slow-footed Kelvin Benjamin followed by Zay Jones, who caught a pitiful 41.5% of his targets as a rookie, and Jeremy Kerley. As my colleague Patrick Daugherty noted on Twitter earlier this offseason, only four running backs age 30 or older have had a 1,000-yard rushing season this decade. McCoy will be trying to become the fifth in a talentless offense behind a bad offensive line that lost LT Cordy Glenn, LG Richie Incognito and C Eric Wood all in one offseason. Good luck, Shady.

Nick Mensio had Sony Michel 20. The composite rank was 24.
I’m not as in love with the player as I am with the situation. In fantasy, I’m immediately intrigued by anybody thrust into the Patriots’ offense. Michel is being injected into Dion Lewis’ roster spot. That’s not to say he’s going to take Lewis’ role, but Lewis was the overall RB12 last year, and the Patriots did nothing else at the position. Rex Burkhead and James White are back for their roles, and Burkhead’s could easily expand in year two with New England. However, he suffered multiple injuries last year, and it remains a mystery whether he can handle a bigger workload. Michel was an electric back at Georgia, playing in college’s top conference. He’ll face soft defensive fronts with plenty of space to operate. The Patriots didn’t use a first-round pick on Michel to not give him every opportunity to take lead of this backfield.

Rich Hribar had Alex Collins 22. The composite rank was 18.
Collins wasn’t even on Baltimore’s roster at this time last season, and even after his surge over the back half of 2017, the Ravens only gave him a one-year exclusive rights tender of $630,000 instead of a longer-term commitment. When given the lead role after the Week 10 bye, Collins went from 5.6 YPC to 3.8 YPC but was able to control the backfield with 19.8 touches per game. The Ravens didn’t add a back in free agency or the draft but do have Kenneth Dixon returning from a torn ACL. Collins only had 37 percent of the Baltimore backfield touches on second or third down with six or more yards to go, an area where Dixon figures to challenge him for opportunities immediately. Collins finds himself in a bucket of early-down backs alongside Jay Ajayi, Derrick Henry and Derrius Guice, but I slightly prefer that trio to him in a vacuum.

Jesse Pantuosco had Lamar Miller 27. The composite rank was 22.
Aren’t you guys tired of Lamar? I said this in an article recently, and it still applies – if Miller was going to have a breakout season, it would have happened already. Despite his size (5’10”/220), the 27-year-old was never a true workhorse in Miami, and maybe there’s a reason for that. After logging a career-high 268 carries in 2016, Miller looked flat-out gassed last season, slumping to a career-low 3.7 yards per carry while also registering his fewest rushing touchdowns (three) since 2013. A subpar offensive line was partially to blame for that, but even with the offseason additions of Zach Fulton and Senio Kelemete, did Houston’s O line really get THAT much better? I still have Miller ranked higher for now, but it wouldn’t surprise me if D’Onta Foreman passed him on the depth chart this year, or at least made it a 50/50 split.

Evan Silva had Duke Johnson 48. The composite rank was 38.
Duke Johnson has endured three seasons of underutilization since entering the NFL, topping 50 catches in all three but averaging just 10.3, 7.9 and 9.8 touches per game, the latter two under Hue Jackson. Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb’s additions strongly suggest the Browns will continue to stereotype Johnson as a low-volume passing-game back. Cleveland’s expected improvement after a flurry of offseason additions indicates the Browns will face fewer pass-first game scripts, further decreasing Johnson’s usage. Johnson is being egregiously over-drafted in the early-ish middle rounds of early fantasy drafts.

Patrick Daugherty had Jamaal Williams unranked. The composite rank was 34.
Draft capital “earned” Williams the first shot at replacing Ty Montgomery last season, but it was Aaron Jones who quickly showed greater promise in the Packers’ backfield. Jones’ 5.5 yards per carry was nearly two more than Williams’ 3.6. A sub-par athlete by NFL standards who was frequently injured at BYU, Williams also offers little in the passing game. In the battle for early-down duties, there is no area where Jones does not have the advantage. Williams will need an injury ahead of him to be fantasy-relevant in 2018.

Wide Receiver Rankings

StaffPlayerEvanRayPatNickRichJesse
WR1Antonio Brown111111
WR2DeAndre Hopkins233252
WR3Odell Beckham452423
WR4Julio Jones344334
WR5Keenan Allen529576
WR6Michael Thomas667645
WR7A.J. Green875867
WR8Davante Adams786998
WR9Mike Evans10118789
WR10Doug Baldwin9912131010
WR11Larry Fitzgerald111210101113
WR12Adam Thielen131015111312
WR13T.Y. Hilton161311141414
WR14Tyreek Hill121617121711
WR15Stefon Diggs151413181217
WR16Amari Cooper171916171615
WR17Golden Tate211718152022
WR18Allen Robinson221821211520
WR19Demaryius Thomas241525191818
WR20Marvin Jones142819202219
WR21JuJu Smith-Schuster182414222323
WR22Alshon Jeffery192520262116
WR23Josh Gordon202724161921
WR24Chris Hogan262222302527
WR25Jarvis Landry342323272624
WR26Julian Edelman252628232434
WR27Brandin Cooks233327292725
WR28Michael Crabtree372126282826
WR29Pierre Garcon292029333230
WR30Robert Woods322935243128
WR31Emmanuel Sanders283136322933
WR32Devin Funchess303037343731
WR33Sammy Watkins273838254429
WR34Cooper Kupp333630314532
WR35Corey Davis393433364337
WR36Randall Cobb403531383345
WR37Will Fuller313745353938
WR38Jamison Crowder353249403636
WR39DeVante Parker414034423046
WR40Robby Anderson424932374135
WR41Jordy Nelson443940463543
WR42Marquise Goodwin385241444241
WR43Kelvin Benjamin514147393842
WR44Nelson Agholor364548415340
WR45Sterling Shepard484339495044
WR46Rishard Matthews434650543448
WR47Dez Bryant494852484639
WR48Kenny Stills455646514049
WR49Marqise Lee524742474952
WR50Allen Hurns634251555256
WR51Martavis Bryant505561505847
WR52DeSean Jackson545466454757
WR53Cameron Meredith575053605751
WR54Mike Williams 44 5763
WR55Kenny Golladay566654436260
WR56Josh Doctson596163564854
WR57Mohamed Sanu477358585155
WR58Paul Richardson556460525558
WR59D.J. Moore615755596550
WR60Quincy Enunwa 5156 6067
WR61Keelan Cole 44 6173
WR62Ted Ginn535362735464
WR63Tyler Lockett466743757162
WR64Tyrell Williams586257 7361
WR65Ryan Grant 58596569
WR66Anthony Miller67 685364
WR67Willie Snead7159 61 63
WR68Calvin Ridley72636467 53
WR69Dede Westbrook60 68
WR70Taywan Taylor64
WR71Michael Gallup6660756856
WR72John Brown627171 6759
WR73Albert Wilson6565 6470
WR74Chris Godwin 7065635975
WR75Taylor Gabriel 66 70
WR76Jordan Matthews68 69 69
WR77Terrance Williams69
WR78Geronimo Allison7068
WR79Dante Pettis 69
WR80Cole Beasley 73 66
WR81Donte Moncrief 69746275
WR82Mike Wallace73 7266
WR83Christian Kirk747267706871
WR84Brandon Marshall 74 7465
WR85John Ross 71
WR86Corey Coleman 72 72
WR87Danny Amendola 757074
WR88James Washington75 72
WR89Jermaine Kearse 74

Wide Receiver Outliers

Raymond Summerlin had Keenan Allen 2. The composite rank was 5.
I did not expect anyone to be as high as me on Keenan Allen, but him not being a universal top-five option was surprising. Sure, Odell Beckham’s return and some better touchdown luck from Julio Jones could push Allen down from his WR3 finish from a season ago, but the reality is there is room for improvement for Allen as well. While he ended the season with six touchdowns, his usage created almost nine expected scores, and that was with Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates hogging 42.2% of the targets inside the 10. With both gone, Allen should see a larger chunk of those looks this season, and he is certain to be a target vacuum. As long as his health cooperates, Allen should be an elite option.

Rich Hribar had Stefon Diggs 12. The composite rank was 15.
Diggs has teased us with an elite ceiling for a portion of each of his first three seasons but has failed to put it all completely together through injuries. In 2018, Diggs opened the season on fire, posting 93-yards receiving or more in three of his opening four games with four touchdowns. He then suffered a groin injury that forced him out for the next week and the next three games afterwards, never regaining that opening month fantasy sizzle. Still, in the 12 games that he was fully on the field, Diggs maintained a high floor, finishing as the WR9 in overall scoring those 12 weeks. He then led the Vikings with 14 catches for 207 yards and a touchdown in the postseason. With the addition of Kirk Cousins, year four is the one where it all comes together for Diggs.

Nick Mensio had Josh Gordon 16. The composite rank was 21.
Playing his first regular season game since 2014, Gordon looked like he didn’t miss a beat when he returned in Week 13. In five games with erratic DeShone Kizer, Gordon posted a respectable 18-335-1 line. He’ll now have a full offseason to concentrate on football instead of a reinstatement hearing and also gets a quarterback upgrade with Tyrod Taylor/Baker Mayfield. Gordon’s supporting cast was also upgraded with Jarvis Landry. Some will say that takes looks away from Gordon. While that may be true, the quality of the targets he does get may be easier with less defensive attention devoted to him. Gordon is still just 27, remains in phenomenal shape and was the closest thing we had to Randy Moss before his suspensions. I’ll bet on talent all day long. With more talent around him and with OC Todd Haley that’s just a plus.

Jesse Pantuosco had Alshon Jeffery 16. The composite rank was 23.
Hey, I get it. Alshon is coming off shoulder surgery and has a history of soft-tissue injuries. He also has a PED suspension on his resume and hasn’t gone for 1,000 yards since ‘Nam (it was actually 2014, but still). Nothing about him says “sure thing.” However, I’ve been in the fantasy game long enough to know that touchdowns don’t grow on trees. Even with said shoulder injury, Jeffery still dominated in the touchdown department last year, leading the Super Bowl champs with nine end-zone visits. Among wide receivers, only Jarvis Landry scored more red-zone touchdowns than Alshon in 2017. That’s not a mirage. Jeffery (6’3”/218) is a matchup nightmare in the red zone, and Carson Wentz – who would have been MVP if not for a late-season injury – is just getting started. I never pegged myself as the “Alshon guy” of the group, but sure, why not?

Rich Hribar had DeVante Parker 30. The composite rank was 39.
I understand many not wanting to buy into the hype for another season as Parker has not met expectations to date, but you really don’t have to invest much this season, and his opportunity is the greatest it has ever been. He also hasn’t even been that bad, the expectations have just been too high. In 2018, Parker’s targets (7.4), receptions (4.4) and yardage (51.5) per game all improved as they have in every year of his career. He also was a PPR WR3 or better in eight of the 10 games in which he had at least four targets, a target threshold he’s surely going to hit much more with Miami missing target-hog Jarvis Landry in the lineup this season. Miami also has the most vacated targets (25), receptions (17) and touchdowns (13) from inside of the 10-yard line from a year ago. We’ve left guys like Davante Adams, Devin Funchess and Nelson Agholor for dead over the past few years after they failed to deliver during their first few seasons, but there’s still reason to take another shot on the 25-year-old receiver now that he doesn’t even require you to invest in him as a starter.

Evan Silva had Jarvis Landry 34. The composite rank was 25.
Landry thrived on volume in Miami, averaging 9.5 targets per game but only 10.5 yards per reception with one season above 5 TDs among four. Now in Cleveland, Landry’s fit is suspect with “bridge” QB Tyrod Taylor, whose teams ranked 31st, 32nd and 31st in pass attempts in three years with Buffalo. No Bills player exceeded 60 receptions during that three-year stretch. I expect Landry to break that trend with a 75-85-catch season, but Landry’s volume dependency would still place him in precarious fantasy position. The sooner the Browns turn to Baker Mayfield, the stronger Landry’s statistical outlook will be.

Tight End Rankings

StaffPlayerEvanRayPatNickRichJesse
TE1Rob Gronkowski111111
TE2Travis Kelce232222
TE3Zach Ertz324333
TE4Jimmy Graham546566
TE5Evan Engram763755
TE6Delanie Walker675647
TE7Greg Olsen4511994
TE8Kyle Rudolph887478
TE9Jack Doyle9988812
TE10Jordan Reed1011910109
TE11Trey Burton121010121210
TE12Tyler Eifert111313111111
TE13George Kittle141412181314
TE14Charles Clay161914141615
TE15David Njoku201615151717
TE16Vance McDonald191217171524
TE17Cameron Brate152019162413
TE18Jared Cook171821201418
TE19O.J. Howard131523242316
TE20Mike Gesicki241720132220
TE21Austin Seferian-Jenkins232216231921
TE22Austin Hooper182822192023
TE23Eric Ebron222124252519
TE24Ricky Seals-Jones212618272125
TE25Benjamin Watson252432211822
TE26Ryan Griffin 26
TE27Antonio Gates 27
TE28Hayden Hurst282525322727
TE29Rico Gathers 28223229
TE30Jake Butt 31 26
TE31Vernon Davis293226 3026
TE32Adam Shaheen26 34
TE33Michael Roberts31 31 28
TE34Jonnu Smith 29 31
TE35Ed Dickson3323 293335
TE36Stephen Anderson 302735
TE37Virgil Green2734 3528
TE38Luke Willson3029 34 31
TE39Gerald Everett32 352829
TE40Jesse James 30 33
TE41Garrett Celek 32
TE42Tyler Higbee34 3031 34
TE43Tyler Kroft35 30
TE44Blake Jarwin 33
TE45Mark Andrews 33
TE46Marcedes Lewis 33
TE47Jordan Leggett 34
TE48Clive Walford 35

Tight End Outliers

Patrick Daugherty had Evan Engram 3. The composite rank was 5.

Engram had an unusually strong rookie season for a tight end. Admittedly, he could have trouble bettering it as a sophomore. Much of Engram’s 2017 production was related to the fact that nearly every Giants receiver was injured. However, even with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard returning, Engram is set up for success. Eli Manning has made a career-long habit of targeting his tight ends, especially in the red zone. Engram is also part of an unsettled climate at the top of the tight end fantasy board. Engram probably won’t see as much raw volume this season – his 108 2017 targets were second amongst tight ends – but he should also be more efficient. His 59.3 rookie catch percentage was 57th amongst qualified TEs. With Beckham and Sterling back commanding defensive attention, Engram’s targets should be of higher quality. Engram has a solid floor and much higher ceiling than the other tight ends in his ADP range.

Jesse Pantuosco had Vance McDonald 24. The composite rank was 16.

Am I missing something? What is the fantasy community’s obsession with Vance McDonald? It’s like Gretchen from Mean Girls trying to make “fetch” happen. He wasn’t even the most productive tight end on his own team last year. McDonald played the majority of snaps in just two of 10 regular season contests while averaging an embarrassing 16.7 yards per game. He broke out for 112 yards in Pittsburgh’s playoff loss to Jacksonville, but neither team played defense in that game (the final score was 45-42). Even if McDonald does function as more of a receiving tight end this year with Jesse James moving into a blocking-centric role, how can we rely on him to stay healthy? The last time he played a full 16-game slate was…never. I guess what I’m saying is, don’t save a seat for me on McDonald’s bandwagon.