Well, here we are folks, if you’re reading this, you either really like me (really probably this column) or you’re still alive in the race for the fantasy playoffs. Either way, I’m glad you’re here. If you were here last week, it was a good week. Zay Flowers, Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams are players from this article who touched the end zone twice, while Brandin Cooks had himself a nice day. Nothing crazy from Josh Downs and Jerome Ford, but they were able to score in the 8-10 point range. We have to keep it moving, especially if you’re in a must-win situation this week. Let’s get it!
RB - AJ Dillon vs. Chiefs
If Aaron Jones somehow returns from his injury in time to play Week 13, then this will be him. Point blank: The Chiefs have been generous to running backs over their last few games. See for yourself:
- Week 12, Josh Jacobs - 24 touches, 125 yards and one touchdown (RB5)
- Week 11, D’Andre Swift - 15 touches, 107 yards and one touchdown (RB9)
- Week 9, Raheem Mostert - 12 carries, 85 yards and a touchdown (RB13)
- Week 8, Javonte Williams - 30 touches, 98 yards and a touchdown (RB9)
I won’t even add in Week 7 where Joshua Kelley went 7-75-1 against the Chiefs. Dillon hasn’t had a great season, but if he’s the lead back against the giving Chiefs, he’ll have the opportunity to have his best game of the season.
WR - DeVonta Smith vs. 49ers
I talked about Smith earlier this week in my Stock Up, Stock Down article after he came up clutch for the Eagles in Week 12 going 7-106-1. How can that continue against this 49ers defense though? Well, for starters, there are only 13 teams who allow more fantasy points per game to receivers than the 49ers. They easily locked up the Seahawks’ receivers in Week 12, but in their previous seven games they allowed a receiver to either gain 100 yards or score a touchdown. Plus, in three of those instances, the receiver got both 100 yards and at least a touchdown. If opposing offensive lines can hold up against the 49ers’ front seven (which is easier said than done), the backend can be exploited. The Eagles’ offense will present the 49ers with their biggest challenge of the season. I like Smith here to continue being a baller.
WR - Brandin Cooks vs. Seahawks
As mentioned above, Cooks has made it to this column for a second straight week after going 5-72-1 (WR22) in Week 12. The Cowboys’ offense is cooking and the Seahawks enter Week 13 having allowed a touchdown to a receiver in four straight games. Cooks has been able to find the end zone in four of his last six games and in Week 12 tied his season-high with 80% snap participation. The Over/Under on this game is sitting at 47, which is the third-highest Total of the week. While the Cowboys are 9.5-point favorites, they’ve shown that they’re still willing to throw the ball even against an inferior opponent. Expect a similar stat line for Cooks as he continues to thrive in this offense.
RB - Jahmyr Gibbs at Saints
Gibbs was solid in Week 12, but his numbers didn’t blow fantasy managers away based on what they’ve seen before. Still, he was able to muster up 15 touches for 73 yards (and no touchdowns) in a game where David Montgomery had almost an identical stat line (15-71-1). It should be noted that Gibbs saw a whopping eight targets and now faces a Saints defense that just saw Bijan Robinson go 3-32-1 (on six targets) in the receiving game. Furthermore, Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 26 carries, 155 yards and a touchdown against the Saints in Week 12 showing that multiple backs can be successful. Gibbs should be one of the better options in Week 13.
WR - Curtis Samuel vs. Dolphins
When Samuel is around, Jahan Dotson is not getting the ball (as much). Why? Who knows, but it is what it is. Samuel saw a season high in targets (12), receptions (nine) and yards with 100, which is his best since joining the Commanders. He did this all while playing 55% of the snaps. In Week 13, the Commanders are 9.5 point underdogs to the Dolphins where the game total is 50. This game is shaping up to be a game where Sam Howell will once again throw the ball 40 or more times (like he has in eight of his last nine games). Samuel has only two touchdowns this season, but the Dolphins have allowed a touchdown to a receiver in six straight. I like Samuel and the other Commanders’ receivers to have scoring opportunities in this game.
WR - Courtland Sutton @ Texans
For just the third time this season, Sutton failed to score a touchdown in Week 12. He had scored in the five previous games. Still, in a game where Russell Wilson only threw for 134 yards, Sutton was able to bring in 61 of those (on three receptions). At this point, Sutton is far and away the Broncos’ top option in the receiving game and will face a Texans defense that let both Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk rack up 89 yards each. The Texans have allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points per game to receivers this season, but have given up a touchdown to a wideout in three straight games. Touchdowns are Sutton’s specialty.
