It’s always a popular question — or string of questions — during my Friday live streams on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel: Which slot receivers have the best matchups? And which outside (boundary) wideouts are in good spots?
While it shouldn’t be the deciding factor in how you make your weekly lineup decisions, knowing if a pass catcher has a particularly good or bad matchup is valuable information that can sometimes serve as a tiebreaker for your most vexing start-sit decisions.
This season I’ll use this space to break down the best (and worst) matchups for pass catchers operating from the slot and those lining up primarily on the boundary. Some pass catchers, as you know, split their time between the boundary and the slot, making this little exercise more complicated. I’ll do my best to pinpoint the most appealing (and unappealing) weekly matchups, and what they might mean for your weekly start-sit decisions.
I’m switching from adjusted yards per attempt to target share as the primary metric for evaluating slot and boundary matchups. AY/A can be very much skewed by a big play or two, leaving us chasing (unpredictable) big plays. I’ll still use AY/A — along with completion rate over expected — in my analysis here. But target share to the slot and boundary will get the graphic treatment going forward.
Slot Matchups
Jaguars vs. Eagles
We’ll start, as always, with the ways in which the Philadelphia secondary might be attacked this week. A bunch of slot targets might be just the thing that saves Parker Washington from another letdown, operating as the nominal No. 1 target in a Liam Coen offense seemingly designed to drive fantasy folks insane.
Washington leads the Jaguars with a 45 percent route rate and has done much of his damage this season on slot targets from Trevor Lawrence. The Eagles aren’t necessarily awful at defending the slot: They rank 19th in adjusted yards per target on slot looks and 20th in accuracy on such throws. But that’s where the ball is going against Eagles opponents, and that’s where Washington (usually) lives.
Brenton Strange, running 41 percent of his pass routes from the slot, could also benefit here. Strange’s 0.46 fantasy points per route run is better than the likes of Sam LaPorta and Juwan Johnson.
One warning here: The Eagles are a pretty clear run funnel defense. That could, quite sadly, limit volume for Washington, Strange, and the rest of the Jags’ pass catchers.
Bills vs. Rams
Dalton Kincaid’s Sad Trombone Situation might finally, mercifiully end this week against an LA coverage unit allowing the league’s second highest target rate.
Kincaid has run 33 percent of his routes from the slot this season (and 20 percent from the boundary). In Week 5 he gets a Rams defense that has locked down opposing boundary wideouts, forcing teams to funnel targets inside.
This should also be a nice little boost for Khalil Shakir, who leads the Bills offense with a 57 percent slot rate through four games. Shakir would be something close to a must-play this week if DJ Moore (shoulder) is sidelined. Shakir’s 26 percent target per route rate trails only Moore among Buffalo pass catchers.
Steelers vs. Colts
I’ve been abnormally Roman Wilson-curious this season. I’ve written about Wilson a few times in the Regression Files because the Steelers offense is producing a ton of junk volume and prayer yards. The idea is that one day, maybe, those prayer yards will magically turn into actual receiving yards. Let us pray (sorry to get religious).
Indy’s secondary has been miserable against slot pass catchers in 2026. They’re allowing the highest completion rate over expected and the third highest adjusted yards per attempt on slot throws. With Michael Pittman, Jr. out and the Steelers all but abandoning the run, Wilson — operating from the slot on 63 percent of his routes — has a real chance to cook here.
Pat Freiermuth, running from the slot at a team-high 65 percent rate, is also interesting this week as a streaming option if you’re down bad at tight end. Tight ends have seen a 25 percent target rate against the Colts in 2026. The Muth might just get loothe.
Boundary Matchups
Giants vs. Commanders
Malik Nabers will (probably) continue cooking until morale improves. Not only are boundary wideouts being targeted at a league-high rate against the Commanders — they’ve been efficient too. Only five teams have allowed a higher adjusted yards per attempt to the boundary than Washington through Week 4. A mere three defenses have allowed a higher completion rate over expected on boundary targets.
Nabers, meanwhile, has been targeted on a healthy 27 percent of his routes since Jameis Winston took over as the Giants’ starter. At worst, he should have a real opportunity to wreck Washington’s boundary corners this weekend.
Lions vs. Cardinals
Both Jameson Williams and Regression Files favorite Isaac TeSlaa have pristine matchups this week against an Arizona coverage unit giving up the third highest adjusted yards per attempt to boundary bros. Only six defenses have allowed more receiving yards on boundary targets this season.
TeSlaa — running 66 percent of his routes from the boundary — is slowly overtaking Williams as the Lions’ air yards eater — a far more efficient one, at that. The pieces seem to fit here for TeSlaa as a flex in Week 5: He’s playing in a high-scoring game, his route rate has increased in recent weeks, and the Cards are getting burned by boundary guys.
Bears vs. Packers
Rome Odunze is dominating air yards in the run-heavy Chicago offense, for whatever that might be worth to you. So far he’s accounted for 38 percent of the team’s air yards, and last week against the Jets he had 44 percent of the air yards on his way to six grabs for 94 yards. Tyson Bagent seems to like throwing the ball Rome’s way.
Odunze should be in play here as a potential flex play. Green Bay’s defense for a second straight season has been vulnerable to boundary guys. They’ve given up the NFL’s tenth highest adjusted yards per attempt on targets to the outside. Though he’ll remain a high variance play, Odunze has the right matchup in Week 5.
