Merry Christmas and good tidings to all!
Forgive me for not having a column out for gameweek 18, but there was some weather, and I was firmly under it. The weather and I are closer to even now. It’s the middle of Christmas Day here in my neck of the woods and, like most people, once the presents have been unwrapped and before dinner is served, I find myself with a few hours of down time. So, it’s the perfect time for me to get my Week 19 column out and you can enjoy some fantasy content on this holiday as we prepare for the Boxing Day bonanza.
Week 18 saw some explosive performances from some of the best and most established fantasy stars, which meant big round scores for many. Of course, a big round can turn into a mediocre one if you do not put the armband on one of those big scorers. Wouldn’t you know that is what occurred to me? Yes, I went with the returns-in-four-straight Eden Hazard, a mistake I knew was sealed by Friday night when Mo Salah did Mo Salah things. Whiffing on my armband choice at a ridiculous rate this season continues to baffle me. I am sure if I had kept the armband on the same person every week, say Salah - my results would be better. If I put names of my top four players into a hat, (say Salah, Hazard, Aubameyang and Sane, who I currently own) and drew randomly each week, the results would surely be better. This is a whole different kind of curse, you know? Like, maybe you were like me and played Monopoly at least a hundred times since you were a kid, and do you remember how, maybe a few times, chance was completely against you at every turn? Like, you knew if you were nine spaces from landing on “Go to Jail”, you were rolling a nine. You land on income tax every time you pass Go!, and you know every time you draw a card, it’ll be one where you pay the bank. Yeah, that’s how this season has gone for me with the armband, and boy, do I fully understand now how important it is to get it right.
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So, with that sad story shared, I have the perfect Christmas present for myself and the rest of the world. This week, I know EXACTLY who to captain, no question about it, and no way for me to screw it up. You captain Mo Salah. Get it? Got it? Good.
Liverpool played on Friday night, more time to rest than anyone else you might be considering. Say Tottenham assets for example, who are only getting about half the amount of recovery time. That’s it. That’s all the information I need to form a solid decision. Salah has the form and, since they will have had five nights rest since their last outing, I would expect the Reds to field a strong side whereas choosing a captain from another club may carry a bit of uncertainty around that player’s manager deciding they want to rest their star on the bench for this midweek match.
No coal in my stocking this morning, so I must be doing something right. Let’s take a look at the landscape ahead of Week 19...
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TO HAVE AND TO HOLD
So now it is time to look at the players to think about ahead of Week 4. As a reminder, there are four categories of players which I feel are worth mentioning week to week when making decisions about transfers....
1) Players to buy
2) Players to sell
3) Players to hold onto
4) Players to avoid buying
I will also include later in the section, my top choices for the captain’s armband. While I will consider every player from A to Z, you will normally find the usual suspects there.
Right, so let’s dive in...
GOALKEEPERS
*Just as a reminder, keepers should always be the last position to think about using transfers for, unless there is an urgent need. So, when you see who I have listed here, bear in mind that my keeper advice does not carry as much weight as the outfield positions.
Player to buy: Hugo Lloris - Despite giving up a pair to Everton on Sunday and with some injuries at the back, I still think Lloris is a nice differential pick at the position at the moment. The schedule is very kind for Spurs and you don’t have to worry about rest or who is ahead in the pecking order. Just set him and forget him...hey, that reminds me of a gift I got someone for Christmas once.
Player to sell: Mathew Ryan - Ryan will be occupying this spot for a few weeks because he will be off to play in the Asian Games in January. You may as well get rid of him now though, as Brighton face Arsenal this weekend.
Player to hold: David De Gea - Tied for fourth in ownership despite being massively overpriced in relation to his production this season, de Gea owners now have to stick with him. The only thing that prevented United’s new era from being perfect was keeping a clean sheet. Now, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer may need a couple of games to sort out his back line, but once he settles, I would imagine a sharp increase in de Gea points.
Player to avoid: Asmir Begovic - Big score for Begovic in Week 18, making five saves, grabbing two bonus points and a clean sheet. This is the kind of return you can expect from him...every two months or so. Yes, his nine point effort over the weekend is more than he scored in his previous five starts COMBINED. You know how a broken clock is still right two times a day? Same with the Cherries defense.
DEFENDERS
Player to buy: Lucas Digne - A couple of rounds back, I was giving full attention to Digne but suggesting to wait until Everton got a couple of tough fixtures out of the way. The 2-6 loss to Tottenham and nine goals shipped in two would appear to validate my advice. I am still annoyed people bought him enough ahead of the Spurs game to trigger a price rise. They get a -1 return and now I have to wait an extra round to get him cause I am .1m short now. Anyway, bottom line is Digne is as involved in the attack as any full back in the league at the moment and, against easier foes, will make a mockery of his 5m price. Scoop him up as you DEF#3.
Player to sell: Newcastle defenders - Between Weeks 5 and 18, Newcastle did not have to play Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham or Chelsea. A very strange scheduling coincidence. That led me to recommend some of their defenders and keeper as solid options in terms of value for your fantasy team. Well, that fourteen game stretch of avoiding the tough sides is over, which means cover your eyes Magpies. Starting with a trip to Liverpool on Boxing Day, Newcastle will have to endure some brutal fixtures. Time to sell.
Player to hold: Marcos Alonso - Alonso’s price has gone down in the small window between the last round and the coming deadline. As an owner, I am happy to see others give up on him. Yes, it has been a while since he’s delivered an attacking return, but he hasn’t exactly ruined your squad. He’s been getting clean sheet points pretty much every other game. You have to think he is due and Chelsea can definitely score two or more against their next four opponents.
Player to avoid: Fulham defenders - You might be tipsy from too much egg nog if you are even considering this. Yes, Fulham grabbed their first clean sheet since forever ago, and if you are looking to free up cash, you may be drawn in by several starting options going for 4.2m. Leave it alone. Put the egg nog down. I expect to see a more competent defense with Ranieri in charge now, but they are still one of the worst, if not the absolute worst, defense in the league. And, none of their defenders offer much going forward, so you are depending solely on clean sheets. Bah, humbug!
MIDFIELDERS
Player to buy: Paul Pogba - It was only a few rounds back that I was urging readers to get rid of Pogba. Of course, José Mourinho was in charge then. Now, the Pogba can be unleashed, and he started his clean slate with three assists. I weighed the options between he, Anthony Martial and Jesse Lingard and in the end I feel Pogba is the smartest buy if you want in early on the new United. He is bound to be the first name on the team sheet every match, while others will carry some risk of rotation. I know he has plenty to prove, maybe more than any player in the league right now.
Player to sell: Lucas Moura - Moura started the three matches prior to this weekend and Spurs have such promising fixtures ahead, but I am afraid he is going to be the odd man out more often than not, at least until Heung-Min Son departs for the Asian Games. So, owners, do not look at his non-start as simply rotation on the part of Mauricio Pochettino. We see what a fit trio of Son, Alli and Eriksen can do on the pitch. Sure, Alli may give way for Boxing Day because of a knock, but if you aren’t selling Lucas this week, you should be planning on it for next.
Player to hold: Felipe Anderson/Robert Snodgrass - Yes, the West Ham attack put up a dud over the weekend, but, isn’t this what you expect from West Ham? Inconsistency? Looking dangerous one week, invisible the next? I think you hold guys for at least the next three against some promising opponents. Felipe is still one with brace potential at a bargain rate and Snodders is just a bargain from any angle you view him. It’s not easy, but hang in there with these two.
Player to avoid: Roberto Pereyra - Without an assist in the first fifteen games of the season, Pereyra has made up for lost time fast, delivering a pair of dimes in two of Watford’s last three games. I still cannot seem to find a way to like him in a fantasy squad though. His price and consistency makes him feel like a round peg trying to fit into a square hole. He’s a MID#4 but so is Ryan Fraser and, for me, the two are miles apart.
FORWARDS
Player to buy: Danny Ings - The way the landscape is looking these days, I am al about two budget forwards, one being always Raúl Jiménez, and stacking up on the big names in midfield. So, with Southampton looking revitalized under new management and an attack that actually works - three goals in two straight matches - you have to think a fit Danny Ings might be the best bargain going in the game right now. Yes, the Saints have two tough games immediately after Boxing Day, but he is still worth buying now.
Player to sell: Glenn Murray - Speaking of budget forwards, Murray has been one of the best in terms of value for much of the first half of the season, but his veteran legs may beginning to hit a wall. His minutes are getting scaled back much too much to stick with him in your fantasy team, which is a shame because he’s got a great goal rate still in terms of a “per minutes played” basis. Add in a tough fixture list for the Seagulls and this move should not be tough to make.
Player to hold: Jamie Vardy - Despite delivering the match-winner and grabbing maximum bonus in Leicester’s smash and grab win at Chelsea, current managers may be seeing Manchester City next on the schedule and feel tempted to swap him out for a more appealing option. Well, let’s get with the current state of affairs. City’s defense is suffering lately, failing to keep a clean sheet in five straight, culminating in an embarrassing 2-3 defeat at home to Palace. While I expect that result to motivate Pep on getting more from his defense, I cannot let this fixture be the reason to drop Vardy.
Player to avoid: Sergio Agüero - Full disclosure - this may make me look really silly by Wednesday night. Aguero has not started a league game in a month now, and perhaps this round will mark his return to the XI. I just don’t think it is worth risking the price he costs to get in early on him. I had a reader ask me ahead of the last round if bringing Aguero in as part of a 4 point hit was a good idea. I said, “No”. I hope he listened. Harry Kane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are providing the returns you expect from high-priced forwards, so you may as well roll with them until Aguero returns to “essential” status.
TOP CAPTAIN CHOICES
1) Mo Salah
2) Harry Kane
4) Eden Hazard
That’s it from me this week folks. Please, bear in mind much can change between the publishing of this column and the FPL deadline on Wednesday. Remember, some injuries are not revealed until just before the deadline, and with the quick turnaround from the weekend and holiday distractions, there is less injury news to guide us than usual, so prepare for one of your substitutes perhaps getting into your XI this week. Always try to refrain from executing your transfers for as long as possible to avoid wasting it on a player who turns out to have had a problem in training. That said, if you only have just enough money for the player you are looking to bring in and that player is at risk of rising in price, then sometimes you need to take a calculated risk and hope the fantasy gods will be kind to you.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
