This weekend will surely see throngs of people headed to their local movie theater to see the latest superhero offering - Captain Marvel. I may have to go myself, not so much because I am a huge fan of the genre but because I want to be able to “marvel” at a “captain” for once.
Yes, the armband selection bit me once again, perhaps in the ugliest fashion yet, as a missed penalty took a negative Paul Pogba return and doubled it. I suppose you can marvel at anything astonishing, whether it be positive or negative. In FPL this season, I can only marvel at how extremely unlucky I’ve been. It was a rough round for many in this regard, as the other main armband options, Sergio Agüero and Mo Salah, returned just two and three points respectively.
So, how about we put that unfortunate event behind us and look ahead to Week 30?
Right, this is a week that has one of two directions for managers to take. Either you have no plans to play your wildcard or use a free hit chip to contend with next weekend’s slew of blank fixtures, in which case you should only be targeting players that have a game in Week 31, or you are planning to use a chip or wildcard, in which case, this weekend can allow you to take a chance on just about anyone for a one-week payoff. Remember, whether using a wildcard or a chip, no free transfers carry over, so if you are using a wildcard or chip next week, spend your transfer on something this week or lose it.
As a reminder, clubs who do not have a match in Week 31 include: Arsenal, Brighton, Cardiff, Crystal Palace, Man City, Man United, Southampton, Tottenham, Watford and Wolves.
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Also, keep in mind as well that in Week 32, we have two clubs on a double - Man United and Wolves.
I will go ahead and spoil the surprise up top - Leicester are the side with the most appeal for transfers this week no matter what strategy you are going with, as they have a very good fixture this weekend, play again next weekend, and generally have solid fixtures over the next several rounds. But, let’s go ahead and look at the whole picture for Week 30...
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TO HAVE AND TO HOLD
So now it is time to look at the players to think about ahead of Week 4. As a reminder, there are four categories of players which I feel are worth mentioning week to week when making decisions about transfers....
1) Players to buy
2) Players to sell
3) Players to hold onto
4) Players to avoid buying
I will also include later in the section, my top choices for the captain’s armband. While I will consider every player from A to Z, you will normally find the usual suspects there.
Right, so let’s dive in.
GOALKEEPERS
*Just as a reminder, keepers should always be the last position to think about using transfers for, unless there is an urgent need. So, when you see who I have listed here, bear in mind that my keeper advice does not carry as much weight as the outfield positions.
Player to buy: Kasper Schmeichel - The only reason you should be using a transfer at keeper this round is of you are definitely not playing a chip or wildcard next round and your current keeper has a blank then and you want to go ahead and ship him out now rather than next week. For that specific situation, I think you go with Schmeichel, based purely on fixtures.
Player to sell: Bernd Leno - Same logic applies to selling as it does to buying. Only for that specific purpose of taking care of a blank at the position one week early. I highlight Leno, as Arsenal have a blank, a tough fixture this weekend, and, oh yeah, they’ve been a huge disappointment all season in the clean sheet department.
Player to hold: Everyone - This is not the week to burn a transfer at this position, so even if your current GK1 has disappointed, as long as he’s been starting, roll with him again.
Player to avoid: John Ruddy - Ruddy replaced Rui Patrício last week and helped Wolves to a clean sheet. Several changes were made to that Wolves side though, suggesting it wasn’t necessarily a changing of the guard. It is not worth risking. Wolves chances of a cleanie this weekend are slim no matter who’s between the sticks, and then they have a blank. Besides, when their double gamweek rolls around and you want to have the maximum three, you won’t want a keeper as one of them. You’ll want Doherty/Jota/Jimenez.
DEFENDERS
Player to buy: Ricardo Pereira - Pereira remains my top defender to buy for the second week in a row. You’ve heard me beat the drum many times before. Leicester have the good fixtures, no blank next week to worry about, and Pereira has the ability to get you returns on both sides of the ball. Maybe he pays off this week, maybe not, but over the course of the next five rounds, barring suspension or injury, I guarantee he will prove his worth.
Player to sell: Marcos Alonso - Alonso was dropped last week and, while if I had to bet, I would lean toward him making the XI this weekend, it is a very light lean. In reality, it’s pretty close to 50/50 for me and I think we will see him benched at least a couple more times before the season ends. I say you cut bait and not look his way again this season.
Player to hold: Burnley defenders - The Clarets have one of the scariest fixtures any club can have this season, a trip to Anfield. While their defense has improved and Everton were able to shut the Reds down last weekend, I would expect nothing beyond appearance points in this fixture. That said, I would bench my Burnley rep for another defender option. Many lower-tiered clubs with budget defenders have good matchups in this round you can play instead. Then, Burnley’s fixtures improve, including having a game in the next round.
Player to avoid: Nicolás Otamendi - Otamendi was the standout performer for the Citizens in their 0-1 win last weekend, collecting the maximum three bonus points. He’s a fantasy stud on a points per game basis in his City career, but he simply cannot be looked at as an FPL option. Too much rotation at center back. He has not started more than three consecutive league games this season and if he starts this weekend, that’ll make it three straight on this latest run.
MIDFIELDERS
Player to buy: Sadio Mane - Could be too little, too late as Mane has been in great form for a considerable stretch, so his next dip into obscurity could come at any time. However, by next week, when 10 clubs are off and Liverpool are the only “big club” playing, you are going to have to get him for that anyway, so why not move that transfer up a week and see what a home game against the Clarets can yield.
Player to sell: Heung-Min Son - The South Korean sensation has blanked in three straight games and, following this weekend’s trip to Southampton, Spurs have a blank. I worry that Son could be given a rest against the Saints, he has looked a bit gassed lately, so better to move him a week early and bring in someone with better form.
Player to hold: Ryan Fraser - The once-consistent budget option has now gone eight rounds without an attacking return, by far his driest spell of the season. He’s become a bench player for my squad in recent weeks, but this week I am banking on him to find his touch against the Terriers. Other owners who have lasted this long during his dip in form should do likewise and may want to keep him around for GW31 as the Cherries have a game.
Player to avoid: Manuel Lanzini - I have seen some colleagues talk up Lanzini since he played his first full shift after his long injury layoff. I would rather wait until the returns start coming before risking his addition to my squad. West Ham are a Jekyll and Hyde club as it is, but they are safe and will be among those during the run-in with little to play for. Lanzini may get a rest in the next week or two as well. It was a long layoff after all.
FORWARDS
Player to buy: Jamie Vardy - In a season that seems to subvert our expectations more often than in previous seasons, one strategy continues to consistently work - prey on the Fulham defense. Mixed bag with the debut of Brendan Rodgers but Vardy got his, and should find the net again against the Cottagers.
Player to sell: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang/Alexandre Lacazette - Neither of these pricey options are staying in the XI with enough regularity to warrant their investment, especially now that other premium strikers are fit and/or in form. Add in a tough fixture (Man United, followed by a blank) and this should not be a tough move.
Player to hold: Josh King - Blanks in his last two and four of the past five, King owners are likely ready to make a move. While there are other forwards in his price range I would rather have, I think I would rather use my transfer elsewhere, and see what the Norwegian international can do against Huddersfield.
Player to avoid: Troy Deeney - For the second time in three rounds, Deeney was among the top-scoring forwards, playing a role in five goals in that stretch. If you have him already, I suppose you may want to stay loyal with the Hornet, but if you don’t, he has to stay out of your mind. The next three rounds, Watford get both Manchester sides and a blank in between.
TOP CAPTAIN CHOICES
1) Sergio Aguero
2) Mo Salah
4) Jamie Vardy
5) Sadio Mane
That’s it from me this week folks. Please, bear in mind much can change between the publishing of this column and the FPL deadline on Saturday. Remember, some injuries are not revealed until just before the deadline. Always try to refrain from executing your transfers for as long as possible to avoid wasting it on a player who turns out to have had a problem in training. That said, if you only have just enough money for the player you are looking to bring in and that player is at risk of rising in price, then sometimes you need to take a calculated risk and hope the fantasy gods will be kind to you.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
