For over 30 years a man named Bill Deane has been predicting the Hall of Fame vote. He has a nearly 80% success rate in getting the votes right, so that’s pretty good. Last year he successfully predicted that no one would get the requisite 75% from the BBWAA voters. The year before that he was correct in predicting that it would be the Barry Larkin show.
His prediction this year? Greg Maddux. No one else.
Hard to believe that neither Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine nor the close-but-not-quite-last-year pair of Craig Biggio and Jack Morris will make it, but I have learned to (a) pay close attention to Deane’s projections and; (b) to never be surprised at the lunacy of the BBWAA voting pool.
Go read Deane’s predictions and rationale over at Baseball:Past and Present. And bookmark it for a couple weeks from now when we hear how the voting actually goes down.
