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2021 NBA Draft lottery odds, visualized

NBA Draft lottery

SECAUCUS, NJ - AUGUST 20: Deputy Commissioner of the NBA, Mark Tatum poses for a photo during the 2020 NBA Draft Lottery on August 20, 2020 at the NBA Entertainment Studios in Secaucus, New Jersey. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2020 NBAE (Photo by Steven Freeman/NBAE via Getty Images)

NBAE via Getty Images

The 2019 NBA Draft lottery was especially important.

Just two years later, the lottery has even wilder stakes.

Thanks to a few trades, pick protections – not just the usual lottery luck – will swing whether teams have access to highly touted prospects Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga.

The Rockets keep their first first-rounder only if it lands top four (52% chance). Otherwise, they’ll swap the No. 5 pick to the Thunder for the No. 18 pick (48% chance).

The Timberwolves keep their first-rounder only if it lands top three (28% chance). Otherwise, they’ll convey it to the Warriors (73% chance). If keeping its pick this year, Minnesota will owe Golden State an unprotected first-rounder next year.

The Bulls keep their first-rounder only if it lands top four (20% chance). Otherwise, they’ll convey it to the Magic (80% chance). If keeping its pick this year, Chicago will owe Orlando a top-three-protected first-rounder next year.

Of course, the Pistons, Magic, Thunder, Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Raptors, Kings, Pelicans, Hornets, Spurs, Pacers and Warriors also have their own unprotected lottery picks this year.

Here are the odds for the 14 teams involved in tonight’s lottery. Picks a team cannot get are not displayed. If a team has a chance – but a less than 0.5% chance – of a pick, it’s rounded to 0%.

Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets

Detroit Pistons

Detroit Pistons

Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Timberwolves

Toronto Raptors

Toronto Raptors

Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bulls

Sacramento Kings

Sacramento Kings

New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans Pelicans

Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte Hornets

San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio Spurs

Indiana Pacers

Indiana Pacers

Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors