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In-Season Tournament Finals, Lakers vs. Pacers: It’s all about that pace

Adam Silver said he is not taking a victory lap just yet for the idea of the In-Season Tournament, but I don’t know what else you would call the media tour he has been on this past week. Silver has been everywhere in the past 48 hours talking up the IST and how it’s driven interest in the league at a time of year when the NFL playoffs and college football transfer portal usually dominate the headlines.

Now we’ve reached the highlight, the Finals of the IST, the Indiana Pacers vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. Here’s what to look for.

What does this game count for?

Nothing. And everything.

This is the only game in the In-Season Tournament that does not count toward the regular season, and the statistics from this game do not count toward a player’s or team’s season stats. This game exists in its own little Black Mirror dimension that is apart from everything in the NBA reality.

However, LeBron James and Tyrese Haliburton want it. Badly. There’s a financial motivation — players on the winning team get $300,000 more a person than the losers ($500,000 to $200,000) — but it’s more about pride and stature. Legacy-building LeBron can say he won the first-ever In-Season Tournament (it feels like the tournament will stick for a while), while for the Pacers this is part of building up a roster to contender status.

When, where to watch Lakers vs. Pacers

The broadcast starts at 8:30 p.m. ET (5:30 p.m. local in Las Vegas), with the tip-off a little later. You can watch it on ABC.

How did the Lakers get here?

The Lakers are 6-0 in the IST:

Def. Phoenix 122-119
Def. Memphis 134-107
Def. Portland 107-95
Def. Utah 131-99
Def. Phoenix 106-103 (quarterfinals)
Def. New Orleans 133-89 (semifinals)

LeBron James decided he wanted to win this, which changed everything (for the tournament and the Lakers). He has looked like an MVP candidate — scoring 26.8 points a game while shooting 62.5% from 3 in IST games — carrying and willing the Lakers to victories. Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves have pitched in offense, but more importantly the Lakers got healthy and with that their defense has been better in these tournament games.

How did the Pacers get here?

The Pacers are 6-0 in the IST:

Def. Cleveland 121-116
Def. Philadelphia 132-126
Def. Atlanta 157-152
Def. Detroit 136-113
Def. Boston 122-112 (quarterfinals)
Def. Milwaukee 128-119 (semifinals)

Tyrese Haliburton’s star turn has been impressive to watch — he has played at an MVP ballot level through these games averaging 27.8 points and 13.7 assists in the IST — and with that has lifted Indiana past what was supposed to be the three best teams in the East (Boston, Milwaukee and Philadelphia). Indiana is gaining the confidence they can play with anyone. The Pacers are all offense but against the Bucks showed an effort on defense that was a little reminiscent of the Nuggets’ title run — their defense wasn’t great but was good enough when paired with a historic offense.

Breaking down Lakers vs. Pacers

It’s all about that pace.

The Lakers are comfortable playing fast — ninth-fastest pace in the NBA and second in the league in percentage of their plays that start in transition — but not at the league-leading pace of Indiana.

The Lakers are older as a team and their transition defense is a little below the league average. Los Angeles undoubtedly watched the video of the Pacers running past the Bucks and realized they don’t want to be that team. Don’t be shocked to see LeBron and D’Angelo Russell walking the ball up at times and for the Lakers to milk the clock a little.

The Lakers will be able to score on Pacers and the question becomes can Indiana slow them down at all? Expect Andrew Nembhard to come in early off the bench for the Pacers and get a lot of LeBron time, along with Bruce Brown and maybe some Myles Turner in an attempt to slow the legend. Good luck with that. LeBron is shooting the ball better than he has in his career, he’s playing at an incredible level and is going to get his.

One key stat to watch is 3-point shooting — the Lakers are not a great shooting team. They average the second-fewest attempts a game in the league (29.7) and hit 34.3% of them (about the league average). However, against the Pelicans they were 17-35 (48.6%) from 3, and for all the IST games they are shooting 44.9% from 3. When they shoot like that from the outside they are unbeatable because it’s paired with LeBron getting downhill and Anthony Davis’ skill in the paint. Indiana’s defense this season chases teams off the arc but give up the most points in the paint in the league — they want to force opponents to take twos and bet they can win the math game with their 3-pointers and pace. The Lakers love to get to the rim, but Austin Reaves and others need to knock down some shots from outside.

While the Pacers will struggle to cover LeBron, the Lakers will struggle to cover Haliburton, who can not only get his own but his 12.1 assists a game lead the league (and it’s 13.7 a game in the IST). If he’s finding Obi Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin open on cuts to the rim or at the arc, he will carve up the Lakers’ defense and have them scrambling. Taurean Prince will get the start on him but expect a lot of Jarred Vanderbilt off the bench as the Lakers hope their size can slow Haliburton.

The Lakers will need an elite game from Anthony Davis protecting the rim, but if Myles Turner is knocking down 3s and pulling him out of the lane it’s advantage Pacers.

The bottom line: If this becomes a track meet LeBron will have a couple of spectacular, highlight plays but the Pacers will win the game. If the Lakers can keep the pace under control and hit some 3s so the Pacers can’t just pack the paint, they will get to hoist the cup.