The NFL says it publishes injury reports for the specific purpose of maintaining the integrity of the game, preventing insiders from profiting off information by gambling with knowledge of a player’s availability that the general public didn’t have. The rapid changes to the point spread on today’s Bears-Ravens game shows just how valuable injury information is.
The spread, which opened with the Ravens as 6.5-point favorites, shifted dramatically on Saturday when the Ravens announced that Lamar Jackson would not play, and acknowledged that their Friday injury report, listing Jackson as a full participant in practice, was inaccurate. The spread quickly moved by five points, to the Ravens becoming only 1.5-point favorites Saturday afternoon, after the news that Jackson would miss the game.
As of early Sunday morning, the Ravens are 2.5-point favorites.
The reason for the line movement is that many bettors started betting on the Bears once the Ravens acknowledged that Jackson wasn’t healthy enough to play. So the people who knew before the announcement that Jackson wasn’t healthy enough to play had a major betting advantage. And people on the Ravens — players, coaches, other team employees — who knew that Jackson hadn’t actually been a full participant in practice had the kind of inside information that gamblers crave.
Anyone in the sports world who didn’t realize before how important it is to be transparent about injury information should have realized it three days ago, when current and former NBA players and a current head coach were arrested by the FBI in a gambling probe. Among the charges is that former NBA player and coach Damon Jones influenced bets on NBA games by sharing privileged information about players’ injuries. In the NFL, the very purpose of the injury report is to prevent anyone from having privileged information — injury information is supposed to be public.
In the case of Jackson’s injury, the full information wasn’t public. Once it became public, the point spread changed dramatically.
Now that we know it will be Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley and not two-time MVP Lamar Jackson at quarterback for the Ravens against the Bears on Sunday, the question is whether the 1-5 Ravens can win a game.
With a loss, Baltimore will match its worst seven-game start in franchise history. In 2015, Baltimore started 1-6.
If they lose again, their margin for error will be wafer thin the rest of the way.
A loss would be their fifth in a row. That would be the third longest losing streak in franchise history. In 2007, the Ravens lost nine in a row. In 2021, they lost six in a row.
Win or lose to the Bears on Sunday, the Ravens will have a short-week visit to Miami on Thursday night. And it’s entirely possible that we’ll be watching the 1-6 Ravens against the 1-7 Dolphins.
And, yes, we’ll watch. Why? Because it’s football and because it’s on TV.
The Ravens corrected their Friday injury report on Saturday. Despite the clarification, the Ravens may still end up with a problem.
The NFL says it will be reviewing the situation.
The Ravens originally listed quarterback Lamar Jackson as fully participating in practice on Friday. On Saturday, when Jackson was ruled out, the Ravens changed the Friday designation from “full” to “limited.”
“Lamar Jackson was present for and participated fully in our entire practice ahead of Sunday’s game against the Bears,” the Ravens said in a statement. “Upon further evaluation and after conferring with the league office, because Lamar didn’t take starter reps in practice, we updated our report to reflect his practice participation.”
Further review shouldn’t have been needed. Based on the league’s “Personnel (Injury) Report Policy,” the term “full participation” should be used only when a player has taken “100 percent” of his “normal repetitions.”
From the policy, a copy of which the league has provided to PFT: “A player who participates in individual drills, but for medical reasons does not take his normal repetitions during the team portion of practice and is assigned to the scout team should be listed as ‘Limited Participation.’ Participation on the scout team, no matter how extensive, by a player whose normal repetitions would be with the starters but for his medical condition, would not alter the player’s proper designation as ‘Limited Participation.’”
Although the team’s statement does not specify that Jackson took “scout team” reps, Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reported on Saturday morning that Jackson “ran the scout team” during Friday’s practice. As an industry source told PFT earlier today, that tweet sparked the process that resulted in the Ravens changing the practice designation retroactively.
While the Ravens may have simply been trying to keep the Bears from realizing that Jackson wouldn’t be starting, the same-old gamesmanship needs to be reconsidered in light of the pitfalls of inside information. And this incident, coupled with the NBA’s current gambling scandal, should prompt a full review and reconsideration of the league’s policies and procedures regarding the reporting of injuries.
The mere fact that the Ravens got it wrong on Friday — whether due to negligence or attempted chicanery — cannot happen. Even if/when the NFL fines the Ravens, the only acceptable solution would be to never have situations like this arise.
A bizarre, and poorly timed, change to the Ravens’ Friday practice report has been explained by the team.
“Lamar Jackson was present for and participated fully in our entire practice ahead of Sunday’s game against the Bears,” the Ravens said in a statement issued on Saturday afternoon. “Upon further evaluation and after conferring with the league office, because Lamar didn’t take starter reps in practice, we updated our report to reflect his practice participation.”
The specific rule triggering the change has not previously been publicized by the league. If there even is such a rule, the Ravens apparently weren’t aware of it.
Jackson fully participated in Friday’s practice. He did not participate as the starting quarterback. So his participation was limited.
The situation further underscores the apparently broad range of participation that counts as “limited.” What really is “limited”? Who really knows?
Actually, it could be argued that, if a starter takes no first-team reps in a practice, he didn’t practice at all.
The broader concern is this, given the NBA’s still-steaming gambling scandal. Someone knew Lamar wasn’t going to start on Saturday, after he was listed as fully participating in practice and before he was ruled out on Saturday. Although the teams are typically inclined to hold their cards close to the vest for competitive purposes, someone knew the truth. And someon could have shared the truth with others. And they could have shared the truth with others. And someone could have acted accordingly in the sportsbook apps on their phones.
Rozier’s case came to light because sportsbooks flagged unusual betting activity. If someone decides to not be a pig at the trough, the alarms won’t sound. And it will become impossible to know whether inside information was misused.
Sometimes, you can’t make it up. Sometimes, you don’t have to.
Only one day after the NBA found itself embroiled in the biggest scandal to date of the era of legalized, normalized, and heavily monetized sports betting, the Ravens (and, necessarily, the NFL) stepped on a giant rake.
Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, who last played in Week 4, finally returning to practice this week. He was listed as limited on Wednesday and Thursday. Then came Friday. The Ravens listed Jackson as a full participant in practice.
That sent a distinct message to the public. And, for these purposes, the betting public. It suggested that Lamar is good to go. That Lamar will be playing. Which surely influenced more than a few spread and moneyline wagers placed on Baltimore since the label was applied.
Today, out of nowhere, Jackson was ruled out for Sunday’s game. And then, to make matters MUCH worse, his practice status for Friday was retroactively changed from “full” to “limited.”
There’s plenty of digging to be done as to what actually happened, and as to how much he did or didn’t practice on Friday. Needless to say, it’s the worst possible thing that could have happened for the NFL — at the worst possible time.
And here’s the real question. Who knew before today that Lamar wouldn’t be playing? The Ravens put Tyler Huntley at the podium this week, and Lamar didn’t speak to reporters. In hindsight, the breadcrumbs were there that Lamar, even if in uniform, possibly wouldn’t be starting.
For now, it sounds like someone got freaked out by the NBA scandal and made a rash decision that sends up gigantic red flags. Either way, we have a feeling there’s a lot more to the story. And there’s a chance that it may get worse, not better, as more comes out.
Meanwhile, Big Shield starts in Las Vegas. Coincidentally, the shit eventually hits the fan in Baltimore.
