On Wednesday, the Cardinals will release Kyler Murray, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. Those inclined to bet on propositions like a player’s next team regard the Vikings as the clear favorites to sign him.
On DraftKings, Murray’s odds have moved from -110 to -295. The next team is the Jets at +350.
The Dolphins are at +550, with the Falcons at +650. The Browns are +800. The Steelers are +1300, the Colts are +1600. The Rams are +2000.
The offensive rookie of the year and two-time Pro Bowler had three solid seasons in Arizona. The next four seasons, which were marred by an ill-advised homework clause and a torn ACL suffered in December 2022, did not go nearly as well.
Making Murray more attractive is the possibility that he’ll do a one-year, $1.3 million contract, with the Cardinals paying him $35.5 million.
The first question is whether he wants to play right away, or whether he’s content to join a team like the Rams as a backup, with the goal of hitting the reset button in advance of 2027. Given his skills, why spend a season on the sideline? He should be looking to play now, with the goal of playing well enough that another big contract will come his way next March, if not sooner.
Tua Tagovailoa’s time as the starting quarterback of the Dolphins ended on a Monday night in December against the Steelers. Soon, we’ll know whether the Dolphins will be trading or releasing him.
The past errors in the handling of Tua’s contract don’t matter. Obviously, the Dolphins never should have swapped his fifth-year option in 2024 for a contract worth $53.1 million annually. They were bidding against themselves, and they won — and lost.
Now, the Dolphins owe him $54 million for 2026. They’ll absorb $99.2 million in dead-cap charges over 2026 and 2027 if he’s released. The only way to blunt that impact is to trade him. The only way to trade him is to attach assets to his contract. (His contract could be tucked into a broader trade in order to make it less obvious, like the Rams did when they added an extra first-round pick to the trade that brought Matthew Stafford to L.A. and unloaded Jared Goff’s remaining guarantees. It would be much more obvious this time around.)
The question moving forward is whether Tua will become the next first-round quarterback who thrives with another team.
His situation is different than folks like Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith. Tua played well enough to get the team that drafted him to give him a a-market-is-the-market-level deal. In 2023, he started all 17 games and led the league in passing yardage (4,624). The prior season, he led the league in touchdown percentage (6.3), yards per attempt (8.9), and passer rating (105.5).
The knock has been that Tua has had too many head injuries, and that (as former teammate Xavien Howard said after the Week 1 game at Indianapolis in 2025) he reverts to “panic mode” when his first read isn’t open. As the 2025 season went on, he wasn’t sufficiently taking care of the ball. That eventually got him benched.
But Tua is hardly the only quarterback who can’t whip up chicken salad on the fly, or who has turnovers. And he’s good enough to play, for someone. Under the right circumstances, he could be as good as he was at his best in Miami.
The Jets need a quarterback. He’s 8-0 all-time against them, with a passer rating of 101.0. The Falcons need a quarterback, too. Tua torched them in Atlanta last season, with four touchdown passes in a 34-10 romp.
Look at Atlanta’s roster. Bijan Robinson. Drake London. Kyle Pitts Sr. The offensive line is good enough to buy Tua time. The defense has talent (the availability of James Pearce Jr. is currently up in the air). They finished in a three-way tie with the Panthers and Bucs last year, at 8-9. Put Tuta indoors for eight home games (the ninth will be played in Madrid) and two road games (New Orleans and Minnesota), and maybe he could thrive. (That said, there could be a few cold-weather games, since the Falcons will play in 2026 at Green Bay, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Washington.)
The Vikings are kicking tires on any/every available quarterback, too. They have nine indoor home games (including a visit from the Dolphins) and two road games in a dome at the Saints and Lions. (But, yes, there will be potential cold-weather contests at the Bears, Packers, Jets, and Patriots.)
With the Dolphins owing him $54 million in 2026, Tua could do a one-year, $1.3 million deal with a new team and stick the Dolphins for the $52.7 million balance. That makes him a low-risk, potential high-reward option. And if a coach is confident that he can scheme up plays that will allow Tua to find an open receiver quickly and to keep him from taking needless hits, he could do better than expected in his second NFL stop.
There’s still no guarantee it’ll happen in 2026. Because the Dolphins owe him so much money, they could keep him. It would be awkward, for both sides. But it’s possible. And the Dolphins could choose to keep him on the roster in the hopes that some team will eventually realize that: (1) it still needs a quarterback; and (2) it could do a lot worse than Tua Tagovailoa.
Sure, another $3 million (in 2027 salary) becomes fully guaranteed on Friday. But what’s another $3 million, when they already owe him $54 million?
On draft day in 2025, all 32 teams began the first round with their original pick in place. This year is a whole lot different.
Five teams have two first-round picks in the 2026 NFL draft, and five other teams have none, after the Raiders got the Ravens’ 2026 and 2027 first-round picks by agreeing to trade Maxx Crosby.
The Raiders have their own first-round pick (No. 1 overall) and the Ravens’ first-round pick (No. 14).
The Jets have their own first-round pick (No. 2) and the Colts’ first-round pick (No. 16) from the Sauce Gardner trade.
The Browns have their own first-round pick (No. 6) and the Jaguars’ first-round pick (No. 24) from last year’s draft-day trade that allowed the Jaguars to draft Travis Hunter.
The Chiefs have their own first-round pick (No. 9) and the Rams’ first-round pick (No. 29) from the Trent McDuffie trade.
The Cowboys have their own first-round pick (No. 12) and the Packers’ first-round pick (No. 20) from the Micah Parsons trade.
Five other teams don’t have a first-round pick: The Falcons, Ravens, Colts, Packers and Jaguars.
The teams with two first-round picks all missed the playoffs last season and know they have some rebuilding to do. Those picks can be their building blocks.
New Jets offensive coordinator Frank Reich may want to bring in one of his old quarterbacks to run his offense again: Carson Wentz.
Wentz is Reich’s preferred option because of the relationship they built during the time they’ve previously spent together, according to Connor Hughes of SNY.
Reich was the Eagles’ offensive coordinator during Wentz’s first two NFL seasons, and while playing in Reich’s offense in 2017, Wentz was an MVP candidate before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Then when Reich was head coach of the Colts, Wentz played for one season in Indianapolis in 2021 and played well for most of the season, although Wentz’s tenure with the Colts is remembered mostly for his disastrous final game, in which a season-ending upset loss knocked the Colts out of playoff contention.
Wentz started five games for the Vikings last season, completing 65.1 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and five interceptions. He becomes a free agent next week.
The Jets are expected to add multiple quarterbacks this offseason, and Wentz would have to compete for playing time, but no one should be surprised if he’s playing in Reich’s offense again, with a third team.
The Jets will not tender restricted free agent John Metchie, according to Jordan Schultz of The Schultz Report.
That will make Metchie a free agent.
The Texans selected Metchie with the 44th overall pick in 2022, but he missed his rookie season. While working his back back from an ACL tear, Metchie was diagnosed with leukemia.
Metchie, 25, caught 40 passes for 412 yards and a touchdown in 2023-24 in Houston before the Texans traded him to the Eagles for Harrison Bryant and a swap of third-round picks in training camp last summer.
At the trade deadline in 2025, the Eagles shipped him to the Jets in exchange for Michael Carter II and a late-round 2027 swap. He caught 29 passes for 256 yards and two touchdowns in nine games for the Jets last season after making four receptions for 18 yards in seven games with the Eagles.
