The majority of football fans love offense. It is one reason why sportsbooks offer odds on which team will score the most points on a given weekend. Even though we are down to the final four, this weekend is no different. Here are those odds re: the team to score the most points this weekend:
San Francisco 49ers -120
Detroit Lions +500
Baltimore Ravens +300
Kansas City Chiefs +550
The Boys of Bet the EDGE did a deep dive on this prop.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) began the discussion looking at the overall market before talking specifically about the favorite in the marketplace.
“We have to look specifically at each team and figure out is this a team with a wide distribution of outcome or a narrow distribution of outcome. If it’s a wide distribution, if it’s a big price in these markets, then I am into it. If it’s a narrow distribution, and if it’s a low price, which is what the Niners (-120) are for the highest scoring team, I am out. I think the Niners relatively high floor in terms of scoring output in this game in the 24-27 range. I think the Niners relatively low ceiling in terms of scoring here I have them in the in the 30-33pt. range for the high end of their distribution.”
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He continued with a look at the other three teams.
“The question is, can the Ravens, Lions, or Chiefs pass 30. The Lions, for my money at least, I don’t see it happening. 5/1 is not a good enough price to get me to go nuts here. The Ravens and the Chiefs though, are interesting because there’s definitely a game state here where these two teams are playing score answer and the team with the ball last wins. I absolutely believe in that. I think that total of 44½ is a little bit too low.”
Specifically, Drew likes the number on the Chiefs.
“The Chiefs are the one that really pops for me at +550. This is a Chiefs’ team that number one is playing their best offensive football right now…and they’re up against a Ravens’ defense that I think is a little bit overrated. The Ravens’ defense for what it’s worth, has done a decent job of generating pressure and they do have the most outstanding linebacking group in this quad of teams that are remaining. However, you can attack the Ravens down the sidelines if you can get your mobile quarterback on the edge. I think that sets up well for the Chiefs to hit some explosive plays.”
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Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) agreed with the breakdown and offered a way to attack the market.
“I think the Over 44½ is the correct angle with the Chiefs/Ravens’ game and I think the Under is probably the play on the Lions/Niners’ game. I think splitting a unit or one half of a unit on the Ravens and the Chiefs to be the highest scoring team is the way I would play this because you have Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. I think the Chiefs and the Ravens will both get to 20 points, and then I think in the 4th quarter, you are going to see these teams go score for score. I think this game is going to be one to remember.”
Best of luck with all your bets and subsequent sweats on this championship weekend.
*odds courtesy of DraftKings