So how much damage did the Chiefs do to their playoff hopes by losing at formerly winless Oakland on Thursday night?
That remains to be seen. But here’s what we know: by falling to Oakland, Kansas City (7-4) drops from No. 5 to No. 6 in the AFC standings. The Chiefs also missed a chance to take a half-game lead on Denver (7-3) in the AFC West.
And it’s the Broncos who might have been the biggest winners Thursday night. If they defeat Miami on Sunday and win at Kansas City to close out November, they will be ever-closer to seizing control of the AFC West. In this scenario, the Broncos would essentially have a three-game lead over the Chiefs with four to play owing to the season sweep of Kansas City. The Broncos also have a chance to sweep the Chargers on December 14. (And if Denver can’t do the job, a tough schedule might prove too much for San Diego.)
So how can we finish this by cheering up Chiefs fans? Well, the Chiefs still have a good AFC record (5-3). They also have head-to-head tiebreakers over the Patriots, Dolphins and Bills. Moreover, the Chiefs can sweep San Diego with a win vs. the Chargers in the season finale. The Chiefs will also get a shot at the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 16.
Now, the bad news.
The Chiefs are going to be underdogs against the Broncos, and they will not be favored at NFC-leading Arizona the following week. It’s quite possible the Chiefs could lose both games to fall to 7-6 before a rematch with the Raiders on December 14.
Assuming the Chiefs win that one — perhaps dangerous, but we’ll live on the edge — they would be 8-6 entering the Pittsburgh-San Diego stretch to close the season. It’s possible, perhaps even likely, they would need to win both to get into the dance for the second straight season.
Look, the Raiders were probably due to beat someone this season. And on Thursday night, they got Kansas City where it hurts.
And in the process, they shook up the AFC West and wild-card races something fierce.
Here’s a look at how the AFC’s top 12 playoff contenders stack up after Thursday night. The NFL’s standings and tiebreaking rules are enclosed as resources, as are team-by-team schedules.
THE BIG SIX
1. New England Patriots (8-2, .800). AFC East leader. Earns first-round bye, home-field advantage.
2. Denver Broncos (7-3, .700). AFC West leader. Earns first-round bye.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1, .650). AFC North leader. Host Chiefs in wild-card game.
4. Indianapolis Colts (6-4, .600). AFC South leader. Host Steelers in wild-card game.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4, .636). Wild card No. 1. Hold No. 5 seed on basis of superior AFC record (6-3) to Chiefs (5-3).
6. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4, .636). Wild card No. 2.
JUST MISSING
7. Miami Dolphins (6-4, .600). Hold No. 7 seed on basis of superior AFC record (5-2) to Chargers (5-3) and Ravens (3-4).
8. San Diego Chargers (6-4, .600).
9. Baltimore Ravens (6-4, .600). Seeded ahead of Cleveland on basis of head-to-head win in Week Three. The teams meet again in Baltimore on December 28.
10. Cleveland Browns. (6-4, .600).
11. Houston Texans (5-5, .500). Seeded ahead of the Bills on basis of Week Four victory over Buffalo.
12. Buffalo Bills (5-5, .500).
