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PFT’s Week Three picks

Mike Florio and Michael David Smith unveil their best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season.

The good news? I picked up a game on MDS, knotting the competition through two weeks. The bad news? I was 9-7 again, 18-14 for the year.

This week, we disagree on three games. Barring (another) tie on one of those games, one of us will take the lead.

So scroll down for our straight-up picks. And check out the video for this week’s Best Bets. MDS was 1-2 last week (3-3 for the year), and I also was 1-2 (2-3-1 for the year).

Jets at Browns

MDS’s take: The Browns are favored! That doesn’t happen often. And when it does happen, my advice is bet the underdogs.

MDS’s pick: Jets 20, Browns 17.

Florio’s pick: It’s time. It’s finally time. (Unless their kicker is injured and the coach doesn’t know about it. Again.)

Florio’s take: Browns 24, Jets 21.

Saints at Falcons

MDS’s take: I haven’t been real impressed with the Saints, who lost their opener at home and then barely beat the Browns at home. On the road, I think they’re going to struggle with the Falcons.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 30, Saints 21.

Florio’s pick: One of the most underrated rivalries in the NFL could determine the NFC’s Super Bowl representative. Advantage home team.

Florio’s take: Falcons 30, Saints 27.

Packers at Washington

MDS’s take: Washington won in Week One, but that was more about Arizona being terrible than anything else. I see a second straight ugly performance in front of tens of thousands of empty seats at FedEx Field.

MDS’s pick: Packers 24, Washington 10.

Florio’s pick: One-legged Aaron Rodgers will make quick work of the overmatched home team.

Florio’s take: Packers 34, Washington 20.

Colts at Eagles

MDS’s take: Andrew Luck is looking good and Carson Wentz is a question mark, which makes me tempted to pick the Colts in an upset, but instead I’ll pick the Eagles to win a close one.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 24, Colts 23.

Florio’s pick: Carson Wentz is back, and so are the Eagles. Until Wentz gets injured again.

Florio’s take: Eagles 27, Colts 20.

Bills at Vikings

MDS’s take: This should be the easiest pick on the board. The Bills just aren’t competitive.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 30, Bills 10.

Florio’s pick: Vegas is daring you to take the Vikings giving 16.5 points. But the home team was too distracted by the aftermath of the Week Two tie, and they surely aren’t taking the bumbling Bills as seriously as they should. While the Bills won’t win, they’ll cover. Barely.

Florio’s take: Vikings 35, Bills 20.

Raiders at Dolphins

MDS’s take: I’ve been burned picking against the Dolphins two weeks in a row. I won’t make that mistake again.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 24, Raiders 20.

Florio’s pick: It feels like a correction game, with the Dolphins unexpectedly at 2-0 and the Raiders unexpectedly at 0-2. It won’t be. The Dolphins are legitimately good and the Raiders legitimately have problems.

Florio’s take: Dolphins 27, Raiders 23.

Broncos at Ravens

MDS’s take: Case Keenum is throwing too many interceptions, but he’s also making a lot of big plays, leading the NFL with 14 completions of 20 yards or more. I think he’ll have a big game in an upset at Baltimore.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 28, Ravens 21.

Florio’s pick: The Broncos finally have to play on the road. They’ll wish they’d stayed home.

Florio’s take: Ravens 27, Broncos 17.

Bengals at Panthers

MDS’s take: These teams are about even, but the running threat of Cam Newton is going to be the difference in this game.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 20, Bengals 17.

Florio’s pick: The Bengals bubble gets burst, at least for now.

Florio’s take: Panthers 23, Bengals 17.

Giants at Texans

MDS’s take: Deshaun Watson is struggling to get back to last year’s form, but a bad Giants team won’t be able to do much against the Texans’ defense even if Watson can’t move the ball.

MDS’s pick: Texans 20, Giants 10.

Florio’s pick: Everything is bigger in Texas. Except the Giants.

Florio’s take: Texans 31, Giants 16.

Titans at Jaguars

MDS’s take: That Jaguars defense is nasty. So is the Titans’ offense, in a different way.

MDS’s pick: Jaguars 24, Titans 10.

Florio’s pick: The Jaguars are keenly aware of the fact that the Titans swept them last year. It won’t happen this year.

Florio’s take: Jaguars 34, Titans 21.

49ers at Chiefs

MDS’s take: Patrick Mahomes won’t actually finish the season with 80 touchdowns and zero interceptions, but he’ll keep rolling along against the 49ers.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 31, 49ers 20.

Florio’s pick: Patrick Mahomes >> Jimmy Garoppolo.

Florio’s take: Chiefs 38, 49ers 24.

Chargers at Rams

MDS’s take: The battle of Los Angeles should be an easy win for the Rams.

MDS’s pick: Rams 28, Chargers 14.

Florio’s pick: The first official Fight for L.A. could result in an upset as the high-flying Rams overlooked their red-headed, bolo-tie-wearing stepbrothers. The Rams could also be peeking ahead to Thursday night’s Minnesota showdown, while the Chargers may empty the tank in an effort to score a victory where it matters most.

Florio’s take: Chargers 30, Rams 27.

Cowboys at Seahawks

MDS’s take: I think the Seahawks will prove to be a better team than they’ve shown so far this season. They’ll bounce back from an ugly Monday night performance and win at home.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 27, Cowboys 23.

Florio’s pick: It’s already must-win time for the Seahawks, who finally get a chance to play at home.

Florio’s take: Seahawks 23, Cowboys 20.

Bears at Cardinals

MDS’s take: I’m not sold on Mitchell Trubisky, but I am sold on him having a better game than Sam Bradford.

MDS’s pick: Bears 24, Cardinals 10.

Florio’s pick: The Cardinals are who we thought they were.

Florio’s take: Bears 34, Cardinals 10.

Patriots at Lions

MDS’s take: Matt Patricia practiced against Tom Brady plenty of times, but he’ll have no answer for how to shut Brady down on Sunday night.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 35, Lions 20.

Florio’s pick: Matt Patricia will eventually turn the Lions around, if they give him the time to do it. For now, well, it’s time to get used to things staying the way they’ve been.

Florio’s take: Patriots 34, Lions 20.

Steelers at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: Can the FitzMagic continue? I believe it can. The Steelers will put some pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick, but not enough to keep him from finding DeSean Jackson deep for just enough big plays to win this game.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 21, Steelers 20.

Florio’s pick: You can continue to be caught up in the uniforms worn by the players, or you can trust your lying eyes.

Florio’s take: Buccaneers 30, Steelers 23.