Before 2018, the NFL hated gambling. Currently, the NFL hates prediction markets.
Via David Purdum of ESPN.com, the league submitted written testimony to the House Committee on Agriculture for a hearing regarding the oversight of prediction markets by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The problem, in a nutshell, is this. Prediction markets, which include sports-related estimations, are currently legal in all 50 states. Sports betting is currently legal in only 39 states and the District of Columbia.
“We are particularly troubled that several sports-related futures contracts have been launched nationwide, including in jurisdictions where sports betting has not been legalized,” NFL executive V.P. of communications, public affairs and policy Jeff Miller told the committee. “These contracts fall outside the purview of state regulatory authorities and the safeguards they impose upon the industry.”
Miller also explained that the amount of money devoted to prediction markets could significantly exceed the amount wagered through sportsbooks, creating “substantially greater risks to contest integrity.”
“In each of these state-regulated markets, regulators and state legislators closely monitor betting activity and, with input from professional sports leagues, can determine which bets and wager levels are acceptable,” Miller said. “Those guardrails do not exist in prediction markets. . . . Congress and the CFTC should prohibit these and other types of objectionable bets among the many consumer and integrity protective measures needed before sports-related events contracts are legalized.”
And until the NFL can find a way to turn prediction markets into a new revenue stream.
That was the moment the switch flipped for the league. Before the Supreme Court opened the floodgates for state-by-state sports wagering, the league fought it. In 2012, Commissioner Roger Goodell said, “If gambling is permitted freely on sporting events, normal incidents of the game such as bad snaps, dropped passes, turnovers, penalties, and play calling inevitably will fuel speculation, distrust, and accusations of point-shaving or game-fixing.”
And then gambling was permitted freely. The league leapt into bed with the sportsbooks. Why should anyone think it will be any different if/when the league finds a way to sell sponsorships to and/or allow owners to take equity positions in prediction markets?
Write it down. Bookmark it. The league will fight prediction markets until it can leverage prediction markets to make more money. At that point, the league will ignore its past opposition.
