With Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sending to the bench, presumably for the rest of the 2025 season, the question become what they’ll do about Tua for 2026.
He’s due to make $54 million next year, with every penny of it guaranteed. Another $3 million in injury guarantees for 2027 becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2026 league year.
A trade will be very hard to accomplish, for multiple reasons. First, the Dolphins would have to pay the vast majority of his salary for 2026. Second, they’d have to find a team that wants him. Third, a trade before June 1 would trigger a cap charge of $65.2 million for 2026 — in addition to the portion of his $39 million base salary that the Dolphins would be paying.
Cutting Tua before June 1 would spark a cap charge of $99.2 million for 2026. By making the move a post-June 1 release, the Dolphins could split the cap consequences between two seasons, with $55.4 million hitting the cap in 2026 and $43.8 million being deferred to 2027.
They also could keep him on the team. If they’re going to be paying him, why not have him around as a backup?
Here’s a reason not to have him around. If the 2026 starter struggles, the portion of the fan base that remains loyal to Tua will clamor for him to play. If they’re intent on moving on from Tua, the only way to ensure that is to trade him or to cut him.
The best move could be to do what the Broncos did in 2024 with Russell Wilson. Rip off the Band-Aid, pay the money, take the cap charges, and move on.
The Broncos, after releasing Wilson, assumed a $53 million cap charge in 2024, with another $32 million hitting the cap in 2025. (And, by the way, they made it to the playoffs in 2024. In 2025, they’re closing in on a division title and a possible No. 1 seed.)
The decision to cut Wilson was easier for the Broncos, because keeping him into March 2024 would have triggered another $37 million in fully-guaranteed salary for 2025. The Dolphins are looking at only another $3 million in 2027 pay vesting if Tua isn’t cut by the middle of March.
Still, once they know he’s not going to be playing, the best move will be to move on. And to learn from the massive mistake they made by giving him a market-level deal in 2024, when he was entering his fifth-year option and they were bidding against (checks notes) no one.
