Points are all that matters when it comes to the Premier League title race, and Arsenal can hang its hat on the best total in the division heading into Christmas.
It’s a great sign post, especially given the Gunners’ injury woes this season. They navigated a deep run of attacker ailments to get Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Noni Madueke, and Gabriel Jesus available for selection and are now handling some absences at the back end.
MORE — Everton v Arsenal recap, video highlights
Mikel Arteta seemed happy enough after Saturday’s 1-0 defeat of Everton, though he did mention that his men would need to be more clinical in order to clear a smoother path to Premier League glory.
We have to wonder whether he struck the same tone in the team room, because the Gunners’ December has inspired some intriguing questions with Manchester City now nipping at their heels.
Those questions have to do with the quality of Arsenal’s Premier League wins and some genuine woes with their high-powered, well-invested attack. Did Arsenal spend all that money on attackers this summer just to play a big game of “safe not sorry?”
What’s wrong with Arsenal’s attack this season?
Arsenal should feel no shame that their set-piece strength is delivering goals, as they all count the same on the scoreboard and it’s their attack that is earning those corner kicks, free kicks, and penalties.
And Arteta can, if he so chooses, point to the Gunners’ statistical ranks with a certain amount of pride. Arsenal entered Week 17 with the Premier League’s second-best non-penalty goal haul and fourth-best expected goals total while boasting top-five totals in non-penalty shots, non-penalty shots on target, and non-penalty conversion percentage.
There are some concerning metrics. Arsenal entered the week scoring 2.23 goals above expected. Now, after Viktor Gyokeres’ penalty to beat Everton, they have scored 11 of their 30 goals off dead balls.
Again, they all count the same. And Arsenal entered the week with the PL’s second-best possession number (59.4%), the fewest percentage of passes moved backward (13.4%) and the most through balls in the league with 60. All of this despite decent-length absences for Saka and Odegaard.
So what’s wrong? Here are two things that, to this writer, seem to imply either choosing or having the wrong players.
- Arsenal are not opportunistic in open play. The Gunners entered the week having produced a strong 111 high turnovers off opponents, one of a dozen teams who can live with their mark. Those won possessions have only ended in a shot on 12 occasions, the fourth-worst percentage in the Premier League. If you’re wondering what other elite teams also boast a number in that low neighborhood, it’s none of them.
- Arsenal’s football is writing checks it refuses to cash. Arsenal entered Week 16 with 60 sequences of proper build-up, easily second in the PL and the only team who can even pretend to see Man City in the distance. They’ve scored twice off those 60 sequences, a pretty disappointing if not dispiriting return.
Why have Arsenal floundered against the best PL teams?
You’re not going to believe this, but it’s going to be more difficult to take three points from good teams away from home than it is at home.
I know, right?
But why have Arsenal failed to get a statement win in the Premier League this season? Is there a good reason behind it?
The Gunners lost at Liverpool, drew Man City at home, drew at Chelsea, and lost at Aston Villa. They won at Man United in Week 1 and deserve some credit for that and they bashed Spurs in a derby which always matters, but neither of those opponents are nearly as far along in their projects as the aforementioned four.
Arteta was without Saka and had a less-than-100% Odegaard versus Liverpool and arguably set up to take a point or win 1-0, then lost 1-0 on a Dominik Szoboszlai ripper. He left Eze and Trossard on the bench in favor of two of Martinelli, Madueke, and Merino. Fair to say that was a whiff.
Odegaard was out versus City and Saka started on the bench. Eze again began on the bench in favor of the Rice-Merino-Zubimendi midfield, but assisted Martinelli’s winner in stoppage time (Rodri also was able to go 90 for City in that game, which is notable, too).
Gyokeres and Odegaard were both coming back from injury and served as subs to start the Chelsea draw, but Arsenal were playing up a man for 52 minutes. Arsenal equalized through a Saka to Merino goal that was started by Odegaard moments after he entered the game.
And then there’s the Villa game, which saw Odegaard, Saka, and Eze start with Merino as Gyokeres was still building back from injury.
So who were Arsenal’s top fours in their best performances of the season?
- It was a front group of Eze, Trossard, Saka, and Merino in a 3-1 win over Bayern at home
- Gyokeres scored two starting atop Martinelli, Eze, and Saka for all four goals of a 4-0 defeat of Atletico Madrid.
- Trossard, Eze, and Saka backed Merino in the 4-1 rout of Spurs. Eze scored thrice.
- Gyokeres, Eze, Martinelli, and Odegaard were on the pitch late for the thrilling comeback to beat Newcastle away.
There’s this one name in there...
Is Mikel Arteta picking the right players?
Given the above, what’s stopping Arsenal from producing more from open play, or at least finishing the chances they manufacturee in open play?
Saturday seemed like the perfect opportunity to finally see Arsenal’s most dangerous front four. With Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi healthy, Arteta can feel comfortable using any four players in front of them. Bukayo Saka is always going to be one of them, Viktor Gyokeres is their best fit at center forward, and Martin Odegaard should usually be out there. Arteta opted for Leandro Trossard at left wing, and the Belgian has been productive and fit this year. Some readers might’ve wanted Noni Madueke or Eberechi Eze at left wing, and I would’ve even agreed but advanced stats say Trossard has been excellent this season. At the very least, you need to ride the hot hand (or foot).
So is this team simply mired in a cold snap? Maybe.
There’s an argument to be made that Martin Odegaard — an elite player, no questions asked — is simply taking a while to find his form. But there’s also a question regarding whether he’s lost something over the past two seasons. This is a player who scored 15 times with seven assists in the 2022-23 Premier League season and piled up eight goals with 11 assists in 2023-24 campaign. Those numbers shrunk to three and eight last season and he has just one assist in 2024-25.
Meanwhile, Eberechi Eze is boasting the best short-distance, medium-distance, and long-distance passing percentages of his career. Yes, these are small sample sizes and it should be expected given Arsenal’s pound-for-pound quality compared to Crystal Palace — especially post-Michael Olise. But his shot-creating actions per 90 minutes pale in comparison to Odegaard.
Here’s a stat I found intriguing Saturday night. Football Reference gives us a metric called “xG on-off,” It measures, as you might’ve inferred, whether a given team is producing more when a player is on the field than when he’s off of it.
Arsenal’s xG when player is on versus off the pitch this Premier League season
- Eberechi Eze (910 minutes): +0.66
- Leandro Trossard (794 minutes): +0.66
- Viktor Gyokeres (952 minutes): +0.63
- Bukayo Saka (1059 minutes): +0.51
- Martin Zubimendi (1319 minutes): -0.28
- Mikel Merino (764 minutes): -0.36
- Martin Odegaard (451 minutes): -0.52
- Noni Madueke (423 minutes): -0.66
- Declan Rice (1336 minutes): -0.69
- Gabriel Martinelli (397 minutes): -1.10
Those figures are only midfielders and forwards who’ve piled up enough minutes to feel meaningful. For example, Ethan Nwaneri is excluded even though he’d be first on the list because he’s only been given 171 PL minutes. And as an aside... Riccardo Calafiori is the team’s good luck charm by some margin among all field players (+0.91).
And, there’s still the must-mention of sample size.
So why aren’t we seeing more Eze? And if your answer is simply Odegaard’s track record, then why aren’t we seeing a “go for it” attack with Eze and Odegaard more often? I’m as big a Declan Rice fan as there is outside of the Arsenal fan base and the Rice family, but surely either he or Zubimendi could stand to spend a bit less time on the pitch while the Gunners hunt for open play success.
Because Arsenal going 218 minutes without a goal that wasn’t either an o.g. or a penalty is ridiculous. And the Villa game fell apart shortly after Saka, Calafiori, and Trossard exited for Madueke, Lewis-Skelly, and Martinelli.
Yes, Arsenal need to rotate and Arteta hasn’t done much of it before this year, but it’s how he rotates that can make the difference. A lot of bosses take time to trust their new talents and it takes even more time to stop completely leaning on your proven men.
And look, maybe Arsenal can go the distance playing a defending-first brand of possession football. After all, they are league-best in almost every defensive metric and we know how they boss set pieces. Yet if you come up short again in a title fight, how do you want to look back on that lost opportunity — that you could’ve been safer? Or that you trusted your talent and character to deliver the goods, performed with intent, and had to tip your hat to fate or a superior boss?
Because the Gunners finished 10 points back of Liverpool last season with 14 draws. And you finished two points back of a better title winner the previous season scoring 91 goals but drew that team 0-0 away in Week 29 with 28% possession and a mere six shot attempts, The big transfer buys in attack this summer were meant to make it so you didn’t have to do that again — you’d have more options.
Show some gumption, Gunners.
