The stakes are very high in Week 38 of the Premier League season as five teams vie for three automatic berths in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League.
Manchester City, Newcastle United, and Chelsea could make it academic by handling their business but the games are not straight-forward at all.
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City have to win at Fulham, Villa are at Old Trafford to meet Manchester United, and of course Chelsea’s match is away to a Nottingham Forest that can also reach the top five. Even Newcastle’s visit from Everton at St. James’ Park could occur without Alexander Isak (though the Toffees are missing key pieces, too).
So what are the scenarios — win, lose, or draw — where these teams can make the Champions League? And what will it all mean to the Europa League and Conference League? Brighton and Brentford certainly care about the latter!
How can Manchester City qualify for Champions League?
- Win at Fulham
- Draw at Fulham while maintaining goal differential advantage over Villa (currently 17)
- Draw between Nottingham Forest and Chelsea
- Either Newcastle or Aston Villa drop points
- Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea AND Man City keep GD advantage over Forest IF Newcastle and Villa win (currently 13)
How can Newcastle United qualify for Champions League?
- Win vs Everton while maintaining goal differential advantage over Villa (currently 13)
- Draw vs Everton AND Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea ends in a draw
- Draw vs Everton AND Villa drop points at Manchester United
- Lose vs Everton AND Villa and Chelsea lose AND NUFC maintains goal differential advantage over Chelsea (currently 2)
How can Chelsea qualify for Champions League?
- Win at Nottingham Forest while maintaining goal differential advantage over Villa (currently 11)
- Draw at Nottingham Forest AND Villa draw or lose at Man Utd
- Draw at Nottingham Forest AND Newcastle lose vs Everton
- Lose at Nottingham Forest AND Villa and Newcastle lose AND Newcastle’s goal differential drops below Chelsea’s (NUFC currently +22, Chelsea +20)
How can Aston Villa qualify for Champions League?
- Win at Manchester United AND Man City lose at Fulham
- Win at Manchester United AND Newcastle or Chelsea drop points
- Draw at Manchester United AND Newcastle lose vs Everton
How can Nottingham Forest qualify for Champions League?
- Win vs Chelsea AND Newcastle lose OR Aston Villa lose
Who will make the Europa League?
The sixth-place team will make the Europa League, joining Crystal Palace who have qualified by winning the FA Cup.
Can the Premier League’s eighth place be a European place, and who can finish in eighth?
Yes! This will happen IF
- Chelsea win the Conference League and finish in seventh place OR
- Chelsea win the Conference League, finish sixth, AND Newcastle United finish seventh.
As for who can finish in eighth, Brighton & Hove Albion are in pole position.
- Brighton will finish eight by winning or drawing at Tottenham Hotspur OR Brentford drawing or losing at Wolves.
- Brentford will finish eight by winning at Wolves IF Brighton lose at Spurs.
