Liverpool remain on top of the Premier League table with a one-point lead over Manchester City. With +550 and +400 futures on Liverpool to win this season, it’s been a wild ride. There’s no doubt that the biggest match of the week is Liverpool vs Manchester City. So, get your popcorn ready, this match could very well determine this season’s winner.
You should also get your pin and pad because I’m about to give my Premier League Betting Power Rankings for Matchday 28. These are just rankings and options to fire away should you find value on the line. Which means, I’m not taking every single one, and neither should you.
However, if you did last week, you had an interesting ride. The bets went 10-1-9. Oddly enough, every juiced line hit. Either way, let’s kick things off with the weekend’s first match.
Manchester United vs Everton (Saturday, 7:30 am ET)
Bet 1: Everton +0.5 (-108)
Bet 2: Marcus Rashford 2+ Shots in the 1h (+105)
This match is difficult from a pricing perspective. Everton have played better than the results they’ve earned and it’s incredibly difficult to trust Manchester United as a minus-odds favorite.
I like two bets in this match. The first is, Everton +0.5 (-108) and the second is Marcus Rashford 2+ Shots in the First Half (+105).
With Everton’s play on the pitch and United only winning 54% of their matches at Old Trafford, their value is on the double change.
Rashford leads the team in first-half shots at 1.8 per 45 mins. With Rasmus Hojlund out, look for Rashford to be aggressive in front of net.
Crystal Palace vs Luton Town (Saturday, 10 am ET)
Bet 1: Eberechi Eze 2+ 1H Shots (-105)
Bet 2: Over 2.5 Goals (-115)
Oliver Glasner looks to go two for two in wins at Selhurst Park to start his Crystal Palace managerial career. Going from Roy Hodgson to Glasner should provide more action in home matches for Palace. Being the odds-on favorite this week, you’d have to imagine they push for the win.
What makes me love Over 2.5 Goals (-115) is the fact that Luton Town don’t quit, ever. They score in just about every game and push the pace when they are down. In fact, Luton have been shutout fewer times (4) this season than Manchester United.
Bournemouth vs Sheffield United (Saturday, 10:00 am ET)
Bet 1: Over 3 (-110)
Bet 2: Dominic Solanke AGS (-110)
It’s hard to imagine a match with Sheffield United who are conceding three goals per game stays under the total. That alone makes me interested in Over 3 Goals (-110). Last week I said Bournemouth’s leading goal scorer was due. Well, if Dominic Solanke can’t score at least one at home against this team, he may need some time away to rethink his life.
Wolves vs Fulham (Saturday, 10 am ET)
Bet 1: Fulham PK (+100)
Bet 2: Wolves 1H Team Total Under 0.5 Goals (-132)
Wolves will likely be without Hee-Chan Hwang, Matheus Cunha, and Pedro Neto. That’s their three leaders in attack. Not only goal scoring but creativity.
Fulham are in fine form and should match up better in the midfield against Wolves, especially with Joao Gomes also out for Wolves. Fulham PK (+100) is the best bet for this match and one of my favorites for this weekend.
I struggled to find a second bet for this match. The lines for the props aren’t great. Corners are too dependent on tactics. What that means is, that Fulham likely will let Wolves have possession early, but I’m not sure Wolves will do much with it based on who is available.
Double dipping in a match is never great, but I don’t think Wolves score in the first half. They are one of the worst first-half-scoring teams in the Premier League. Taking Wolves 1H Team Total Under 0.5 Goals (-132).
Arsenal vs Brentford (Saturday, 12:30 pm ET)
Bet 1: Arsenal -2 1H Corner Spread (-130)
Bet 2: Brentford +2 (-125)
Domestically, Arsenal are in crazy good form right now. They have scored three or more goals in six of the seven matches they have played in 2024. They dominate possession and essentially suck the life out of the match.
With a big midweek Champions League match against Porto, where they are down 1-0 on aggregate, this could be a bogey match. Or at the very least Arsenal come out firing and cool down to rest key players.
Arsenal -2 1H Corners Spread (-130), has hit in three of the last four matches played at the Emirates. With Brentford playing a back-five, I like our chances of making this this five.
I’m going to take a stab on Brentford +2 at (-125) is something I can get down with thinking Arsenal try and get out of this match unscathed.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (Sunday, 9:00 am ET)
Bet 1: Over 3.5 Goals (-115)
Bet 2: Aston Villa -0.25 1H Corner Spread (-125)
Goals. That’s all that you should think about when betting on this match. Games have gone over 3.5 goals for both teams around 70% of the matches they have played so far this season. It’s a high number but bet Over 3.5 Goals (-115).
Aston Villa should play on the front foot in this match, knowing this match could very well secure them a top-four spot at the end of the season. Them winning 54% of the first-half corners makes the coin flip bet of Aston Villa -0.25 1H Corners (-115) something worth sprinkling.
West Ham vs Burnley (Sunday, 10:00 am ET)
Bet 1: West Ham Team Total Over 1.5 (-148)
Bet 2: James Ward-Prowse First Goal Scorer +1000
I likely won’t be betting on this match due to the overly mispriced markets in this match. West Ham as a –150 favorite against anyone feels flat out wrong. I don’t care that it’s against Burnley.
I’d be interested in West Ham Team Total Over 1.5 (-148). West Ham should feel confident in being able to twice against Burnley after scoring twice against them in the reverse fixture.
This might sound insane, but I like James Ward-Prowse to score the first goal of the match at +1000. He’s a long shot and only has five goals on the season. However, he takes the penalties and the free kicks for this team. Burnley have committed three penalties in the 13 away matches and an average of 12.08 fouls committed per contest on the road.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest (Sunday, 10:00 am ET)
Bet 1: Nottingham Forest +0.75 (-118)
Bet 2: Danny Welback 2+ 1H Shots (+125)
Would it be weird if I just faded Brighton in this match? Their injury room is getting thick. Most importantly Joao Pedro and Kaoru Mitoma are both out for this match. They also have an important Europa match midweek. There’s a feeling that Roberto De Zerbi may prioritize that.
I don’t rate Forest all that high, but getting nearly a goal in this match against a team that can’t break teams down seems legit to me. Consider Nottingham Forest +0.75 (-118).
Danny Welbeck 2+ 1H Shots (+125) is interesting given the price and the players unavailable. He’s averaging 2 shots in the first 45. They are also playing a Nottingham Forest team that allows over 14 shots per game.
Liverpool vs Manchester City (Sunday, 11:45 am ET)
Bet 1: Draw at Halftime +138
Bet 2: Under 3 Goals (-122)
The match that everyone has been waiting for. When heavyweight teams go toe-to-toe, we generally see unders and a tight affair early in the match. Draw at Halftime +138b has a ton of value in this match.
If this is going to be anything like the reverse fixture that ends 1-1, Under 3 Goals (-122) is the move.
Chelsea vs Newcastle (Monday, 4:00 PM ET)
Bet 1: Cole Palmer 2+ SOT (+125)
Bet 2: Both Teams to Score (-155)
This is the most difficult game on the board for me. Neither team has been reliable, and both have looked like World Beaters. I took a look at a few angles in this match. Angles like shots on target, corners, etc. All were a bit too juiced for full confidence. However, here are the bets I’d take.
