Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite plays on the slate, including the Twins vs Red Sox and Royals vs Tigers.
Red Sox (+120) at Twins (-145): O/U 8.0
Boston is on a four-game winning streak, which included a sweep over their arch-rival New York Yankees.
After playing double-header yesterday, plus Sunday Night Baseball against New York, Boston had short rest and travel to Minnesota after the late night game. Three of the last four teams to play on SNB lost the following game and Boston is 0-2 in this situation this season.
Boston’s bullpen will have some limited depth ahead of this matchup between James Paxton and Pablo Lopez. Both pitchers have ideal matchups as Minnesota ranks bottom five in OPS, SLG, OBP and BA versus LHP, while Boston ranks bottom seven in all those categories away from Fenway Park.
Boston won two out of three at home versus Minnesota this season, including an extra innings victory in Game 1. I like Minnesota to even up the season series at home with the bullpen advantage.
I played the Twins ML at -145 odds and would go out to -160 or pivot to the run line for +110 or better.
Pick: Twins ML (Risk 1u)
Royals (+125) at Tigers (-150): O/U 9.0
Jordan Lyles is 0-11 this season and Kansas City is 0-14 in the games he’s started, so most bettors have an auto bet today.
However, I am going to fade that trend and back the Royals. This trend has been something insane to witness, but Kansas City has lost by two or fewer run in seven of those 14 games.
Reese Olson starts for Detroit and they are 0-3 in his three starts, while he sports a 6.08 ERA over 13.1 innings. Kansas City is live to win this game the longer Olson is on the mound.
Both teams are hitting at top 10 ranks over the last seven days, so if Lyles can handle this lineup that he’s had decent success against, the Royals offense may be able to break this trend.
I grabbed the Royals +1.5 at -150 odds and would not mind taking the Royals ML at +125. The streak with Lyles has to end soon, so there is value on him to record a win at +220 agains the Tigers.
Pick: Royals +1.5 (Risk 1u)
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