Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet in the series opener between the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies.
Marlins (-120) at Rockies (+100): O/U 11.5
We have the series opener at Coors Field between the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies.
The Rockies are 7-3 in the last 10 home games, plus 3-1 in the past four at Coors Field. The Marlins are 5-2 in the past seven games overall and 5-9 over the previous 14 road games.
Edward Cabrera is on the mound for Miami and he’s one of the worst pitchers when it comes to walks (30 in 40.1 innings), ranking in the 3rd percentile.
On the other hand, Cabrera can rack up strikeouts (55 Ks in 9 games), but he’s struggled with permitting homers. Cabrera allowed at least one home run in five of the past six games and six homers overall. Coors Field is perfect for giving up homers.
Chase Anderson made his first start for Colorado after being traded and he went 5.0 innings with one hit allowed in a 3-1 loss to the Reds in Colorado.
The 35-year-old Anderson has only allowed three hits over 10.0 innings and three games with no earned runs on the season and with one start acclimated to Coors, Anderson is worth backing here behind a Rockies’ offense that ranks 4th in batting average (.284) and top 10 in OPS, OBP and SLG at home.
I played Colorado at +1.5 for -150 odds. I like the chances they win this game outright and the Marlins are one of the best teams in one-run games, so I opted to take the +1.5 rather than the ML.
The Marlins have lost four-straight series openers on the road and are 1-6 overall in this spot, so I wouldn’t talk anyone off the ML (+100).
Pick: Rockies +1.5 (1u)
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