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MLB K Props, Picks, July 14: Fade Blake Snell, Anibal Sanchez

Blake Snell

Blake Snell

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

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Blake Snell O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies

We have another LHP at Coors Field to kick off our Thursday and he firs a trend we’ve been playing, and got hooked in the last outing by Sean Manaea.

However, we are back on Blake Snell of the Padres at Coors. The Rockies have faced 17 starting LHP this season and all 17 went Under 5.5 strikeouts with Manaea, Snell, Julio Urías and Alex Wood landing on five strikeouts, the rest hit four or fewer, per statmuse.

LHP at Coors

LHP at Coors

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Colorado is hitting .288 versus LHP (T-1st) and ranks top five in OBP, OPS and SLG as well. Manaea became only the fourth LHP to hit 6.0 innings this season at Colorado and Snell only lasted 4.2 innings in his trip earlier this season.

In his career, Snell has 135 plate appearances versus this current roster for a .246 BA and 31.9 K%. However, since 2021, Snell has three starts at Colorado and San Diego is 0-3 in those games. Snell lasted 4.2 innings or fewer all three times and struck out five, one and seven in those outings.

Snell’s outs prop for this game is 15.5 with the Under juiced to -185, so we should expect 5.0 or fewer innings again.

Let’s ride the LHP trend at Coors and fade Snell for five or fewer strikeouts.

I played this at -122 odds. I would play this out to -140 for 1.5 units.

Pick: Blake Snell Under 5.5 Strikeouts (2u)

Aníbal Sánchez O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves

Braves -1.5 (-130) vs. Nationals

Aníbal Sánchez, the 38-year-old RHP will make his first start of the 2022 season and first since 9/26/2020.

That should spell well for the Atlanta Braves, who have owned the Nationals this season. Atlanta is 7-2 on the ML, winning six straight against Washington. While they have not covered the past two, I like the chances the Braves win by two or more runs this time.

Sanchez has not pitched versus Atlanta since 2020, but in his past two starts he totaled four strikeouts 12.0 innings, going Under 3.5 Ks both times. The veteran has 138 plate appearances versus current hitters for a 23 K% and .196 batting average, but let’s remember, this guy has not thrown a major league pitch since 2020.

Atlanta has won 13 out of the last 17 road games (76.4%) and covered the run line 12 times (70.5%). As a road favorite, the Braves covered the run line 11 of the previous 15 times (73.3%).

Atlanta is one of the hottest teams in baseball and I like the chances Kyle Wright can lead the Braves to another victory over the Nationals.

I grabbed Sanchez Under 3.5 Strikeouts at +110 odds and the Braves RL of -1.5 at -130 odds.

Pick: Aníbal Sánchez O/U 3.5 Strikeouts (1u), Braves -1.5 (1u)

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