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After a long afternoon of baseball, MLB will wrap things up with a short nightcap. Luckily, this is where I see the most value on the board. Let’s get to some best bets.
St. Louis Cardinals (+100) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-120) Total: 8
It’s never fun when you have to figure out whether or not Steven Matz‘s team is going to win. I think the easier thing to do is figure out whether or not his offense is going to score enough runs to support him, considering he almost always gives up a lot of runs.
It’s difficult to gauge where the Brewers are right now, but it’s not as if there is no major-league talent on this roster. Andrew McCutchen has quietly been one of the best players on this team and Hunter Renfroe and Willy Adames — two guys who weren’t on the Brewers a year ago at this time — will surely figure things out at some point.
Matz allowed seven runs on nine hits in his first outing of the year, which came in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are a clear notch below the Brewers at this point in time, which has to have you a bit worried. On the other hand, Adrian Houser was incredibly disappointing in his first outing, yielding a 41.7% hard-hit rate, and this Cardinals offense is on fire. I’ll take the over.
Edge: Over 8
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Houston Astros (-145) vs. Seattle Mariners (+125) Total: 7.5
Chris Flexen made three starts against the Astros last season, and in the first two he was absolutely rocked. He allowed eight runs on 19 hits, and in total the current Houston hitters are .340 against Flexen in their careers. Batter-versus-pitcher isn’t everything, but this has to have you the least-bit worried.
The Astros have been in a bit of a rut since that explosion in the first few games of the season, but in a familiar matchup I’d expect them to bounce back. Flexen had a concerning first outing of the year and will have to navigate some tough left-handed bats.
Justin Verlander struck out seven in his first outing of the season and it’s hard to see the Mariners hitting well here considering they’re bottom 10 in batting average, and second-worst in exit velocity early on. This is an offense looking for answers.
Edge: Astros -145
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