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We’re gearing up for a very fun holiday weekend, and with that comes a boatload of sports to bet on. Here are two plays to lock in as you get ready to sit on the couch and let the a/c hit you in the face.
St. Louis Cardinals (-145) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+125) Total: 9.5
The Phillies swear that Bailey Falter is good, and it’s hard to blame them. All he did was pitch to a 1.76 ERA last year in Triple-A, and a 1.53 ERA this season at Triple-A.
The problem, obviously, is that Falter’s numbers at the major-league level are simply atrocious. He’s given up 10 homers in 53 2/3 innings and has pitched to a 5.20 ERA in them. Falter owns a 5.98 xERA in 20 frames this year, though in 33 2/3 last year he owned a 3.55 xERA.
I think there’s a slim chance that Falter could actually be an effective major-league pitcher given his solid strikeout numbers in the minors. I also think oddsmakers see that as a possibility with a line like this. Guys with a 4.50 ERA and 5.98 xERA don’t get respected.
The Phillies are without Bryce Harper and Jean Segura, but I like the matchup with a junkballer who likes to pitch to contact. I think Philadelphia will get the solo shot or two required for this win.
Edge: Phillies +125
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Los Angeles Angels (+145) vs. Houston Astros (-176) Total: 8
Here’s what I know: Cristian Javier rules. This guy has been one of the toughest guys to crack in the league, striking out hitters at at an elite rate and limiting hard-hit balls like crazy. The Angels are not making consistent contact, and have just barely survived in the last two weeks off of a solid barrel rate.
Javier isn’t going to be giving up many barrels, and with that I love the under here. Michael Lorenzen hasn’t been in the best form, but his strikeout numbers are solid and his matchup here is surprisingly not that bad.
I saw the Astros were top-three in wRC+ over the last two weeks thanks to many homers and a high ISO and decided to do some digging. Their exit velocity numbers weren’t that good, nor their barrel rate. It wasn’t like they were tops in contact rate, either.
What I found was that seven of the Astros’ 23 homers in the month of June came on balls which had an expected batting average under .300. That’s an alarming number when you look at other teams around the top of the league, and it tells the story of a team getting the slightest bit lucky.
I think regression will set in eventually, and against a solid pitcher there’s never been a better time to get behind this narrative.
Edge: Under 8
