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Brad Keller O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Twins
One pitcher that you probably have not bet on this season but has really picked it his play recently is Brad Keller.
In his last start, Keller struggled with his fastball and command in the first inning, resulting in three walks, including a loaded base situation that allowed a run. He finished the first inning with two strikeouts, but what happened after that interests me.
Keller went to his changeup, which ended up being electric versus the Twins. He does not rely upon nor use the changeup much anymore, but having command issues on your fastball will force you to improvise.
Versus the Twins, he threw 16 changeups on the day, forcing six swings, which is worth watching moving forward.
Keller said after the game, “Honestly, I learned a lot about it (changeup) today. I felt like I could throw it any count, threw it for a strike, throw it just off, throw it for an action pitch” per The Kansas City Star.
That is confident, and after that first inning, Keller allowed a homer to the first hitter of the second inning, then settled down.
He struck out one hitter in each inning after the first and ended the day with a win on 5.0 innings pitched, 98 pitches, six strikeouts, five hits, four walks and three earned runs.
What a day. Now he faces the same Twins team from his last start, except he is the home pitcher. [[ad:athena]]
NBC’s model projects Keller to record 5.9 strikeouts in 6.1 innings versus the Twins. He is one of seven pitchers to light up the model with value and one of two with excellent value at that.
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Going over the Twins lineup, I see about five to six different hitters who are good bets to strike out at least once tonight.
Here's how we line up for game 2 against the Royals. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/zpZUPJZ4j9
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) June 4, 2021
The 5-9 hitters all present value to my point based on history and their recent hitting right-handed pitchers. If Keller can grab one early from the 1-4 hitters, this prop will look excellent.
In May, Keller posted 33 strikeouts in 32.2 innings over six starts. Keller posted five or more strikeouts in four of the six games. In his 11 total starts, Keller has recorded five times, four coming in his last five outings.
Clearly, Keller has been improving and in the past five games, he has thrown 92 pitches or more -- only did that twice in his first six starts.
Keller also went 5.0 innings or further in five straight, again, something he only did twice in his first six starts.
Not to mention he brought his ERA down from 9.00 in April to 3.86 in May.
Keller should be looking forward to June and with a new pitch at his disposal, I like him to sit down five Twins’ hitters. The Royals are also on a four-game winning streak, while the Twins are on a three-game losing skid.
Minnesota has the fourth-most strikeouts in the last seven days (64) in six games. Over the last three games, Minnesota has the eight-most Ks per game (10.00) - a beautiful sign for Keller.
The Twins have the third-most Ks on the road of teams that played fewer than 30 games. They also have the sixth-most Ks on the road this season at 10.06 per game. I like Keller up to Over 4.5 strikeouts or the 3.5.
PointsBet offers this line at 3.5 strikeouts for -180 odds. If you want a lower strikeout prop, that is where to go. I am ok with playing the Over 4.5 or 5+ strikeouts for better odds.
Pick: Brad Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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