Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the best bet in the Boston Celtics versus Miami Heat Game 6 matchup.
Celtics (-3) at Heat: O/U 211.0
Game 5 featured a complete effort from the Celtics in Boston to force a Game 6 and attempt to be the first team in NBA history to comeback from down 3-0 and win the series 4-3.
All of the pressure is on the Heat as they return to Miami with home court to end the series. Boston is 4-1 in elimination games so far this postseason (4-0 in last four), while Miami is 2-3.
In the last two games, Miami has struggled offensively. The Heat have gone 17-of-55 (30%) from three-point range and averaged 98.0 points. The Heat have scored 128 (OT), 103, 96, 99 and 97 points in their five elimination games and I am not expecting a barrage of points as both teams have commented on the dog fight that should ensue.
Malcolm Brogdon exited Game 5 and is in doubt for Game 6, so Boston’s depth will be impacted, while Gabe Vincent is a possibility to return for Miami after missing Game 5 with a late injury during Game 4. Vincent returning would take away all Haywood Highsmith minutes for the rest of the series, which is a good thing.
Since the 2004-2005 season, the Under in Game 6’s has gone 91-65 (58.3%) and is 4-0 in the last four of this postseason. I will take the Under and if the Celtics force a Game 7, take that Under before the line moves multiple points.
The loser in four out five games during this series scored 105 or fewer points and this could be first to reach 100 points wins. I played Under 211 at -110 odds for 2 units and would go down to 209.5 for 1 unit. This opened at 213.5.
For player props, lean the Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110) for Jayson Tatum, plus a double-double (-195) and the Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115) for Jaylen Brown, who is 6-of-30 (20%) from three-point range in this series.
Pick: Under 211 (2u)
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