Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets.
Nuggets at Lakers (-5.5): O/U 223.5
The Lakers covered but didn’t win Game 2 after leading or tied at the end of the first, second and third quarters.
Denver won the fourth quarter 32-24 and mixed with a LeBron James’ ankle injury, the Nuggets cruised at home.
James is good to go for Game 3, which was expected since he’s averaging 24.0 points, 10.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists in two games versus Denver.
Down 0-2 and back in Los Angeles, this is a max desperation spot for the Lakers. Teams down 0-3 are cooked, so Game 3 is a must-win and everyone knows that.
After being +5.5 point road underdogs, the Lakers are now -5.5 home favorites, a flip of 10 points. Los Angeles, like Denver, is undefeated at home in the postseason.
The Lakers are 7-0 at home in the playoffs, while the Nuggets are 8-0 after their two wins in this series.
Los Angeles won both Game 3’s this postseason by 10 points (Vs Memphis) and 30 points (Vs Warriors). The Lakers were tied 1-1 in both series.
Denver was up 2-0 in both series this playoffs and beat Minnesota by 9 points, but lost to Phoenix by 7 points in their two Game 3’s. Denver is 0-4 in Game 4’s with losses by 5 and 6 points.
I played the Lakers 1H -2.5 (-132) on FanDuel and full game -5.5 (-110). Those are the only angles I see fit here and I’ll be on the Lakers in Game 4 to even up the series too.
I lean the Over on Anthony Davis’ points at 24.5 and 25.5. Davis scored 18 points in Game 2 and should have a bounce back game in him at home. AD only recorded 25 or more points in five out of 14 playoff games, but this is a spot where he’s scored 25 and 31 points already in the Lakers’ two Game 2’s.
Pick: Lakers -5.5 (1.5u), Lakers 1H -2.5 (Risk 1u)
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