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Tyrese Haliburton O/U 29.5 Points + Assists vs. Nuggets
Let’s run it back on Tyrese Haliburton against the Nuggets.
At home, Haliburton has been a auto-bet averaging 23.8 points and 10.2 assists per game (34.0 P+A) and 5-0 to the Over with games of 33, 39, 34, 31 and 33 points and assists.
The Pacers guard ranks second in the NBA with 9.7 assists per game and leads the league with 19.3 potential assists per game, along with 21.7 points per game (30th). Haliburton posted 27 potential assists in his last game versus New Orleans and converted 13 of those assists.
Denver allows the second-most points per game to point guards and rank in the bottom-half of the league in assists per game to point guards. In the past four meetings, Haliburton has recorded at least six assists in four-straight versus Denver and 12 assists in the previous matchup.
The Nuggets defense ranks 15th in three-point percentage, 19th in defensive net rating, 21st in fast break points, 25th in points in the paint. Denver ranks 10th in pace this season and Indiana is 5th, so this makes for a positive script for Haliburton.
I played Haliburton Over 29.5 P+A at -132 odds on FanDuel. I risked 1 unit on it to win 0.75 units.
Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 29.5 Points and Assists (Risking 1u)
Zion Williamson Over 23.5 Points (-115) Collab with @ProbBomb
1U - Zion Williamson (NOP) O23.5 PTS (-115 @ FD)
— Prop Bomb 🏝️ (@PropBomb) November 9, 2022
Reasoning below ⬇️ #PlayerProps pic.twitter.com/COZqUIY9CI
Kevin Durant O/U 31.5 Points vs. Knicks
The Battle for New York! Knicks at Nets. Brooklyn stand up.
Kevin Durant had a chance to send the Nets previous game into overtime versus the Mavericks if he makes three free-throws. He makes the first, then misses the second. That broke a streak of 62 consecutive free-throws made. That also lost Brooklyn the game.
Durant scored seven points in the fourth quarter versus Dallas but three of those points came from free-throws in the final 11 seconds. It was evident that the Slim Reaper needed to be more involved scoring.
KD is currently on a three-game Under streak to his points prop since Kyrie Irving was suspended, but I like this spot much more than the past three games.
Washington and Charlotte were appealing spots for an Over because of the easy matchup, but plenty of teammates stepped up (one blowout) and Dallas has a terrific perimeter defense and plays at the slowest pace in the NBA. I’m not shocked he went Under in all three, but I almost bet him versus Dallas, but liked this spot much better for him.
While New York has played hard to start the year, the Knicks rank 18th in defensive net rating (111.8) and historically has struggled against Durant.
KD scored 32 and 53 points in his last two meetings versus New York. The 53-point outing came in Brooklyn without Kyrie and the 32-point effort at MSG with Kyrie. Durant has at least 26 points in five of the past six versus New York.
This matchup bodes well for KD to get buckets. New York allows the second-most points per game to small forwards and allow the most three-pointers made. New York is bottom six in both categories versus power forwards too.
Durant scored 32 or more points in six of the first eight games to start the season before going Under three-straight.
This is a good spot to buy into Durant Over 31.5 Points (-113) against the Empire State rival.
I think he is about to heat up. I would play this at 32.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: Kevin Durant Over 31.5 Points (1u)
Fred VanVleet O/U 19.5 Points vs. Rockets
Speaking of heating up, Fred VanVleet is doing just that lately.
FVV scored one point on 0-for-11 from the field versus Philly (1-of-3 FT), then bounced back with 30 and 27 points versus Chicago on 19-of-41 from the field (46.3%), 11-of-23 from deep (47.8%) and 8-of-8 from the free-throw line (100%).
There is no Pascal Siakam in the lineup, so FVV’s role and usage increases. FVV’s usage rate is up to 26.9% (34th) in the past two games compared to his season usage rate of 18.5% (112th).
FVV is 14-11 in last 25 games without Siakam (56%) and scored at least 18 points in 17 of the last 25 (68%). FVV scored 27 or more points in four-straight games and is 5-1 in the past six games (83.3%) without Spicy P.
The Rockets are a terrific matchup. Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. are two 20 and 22-year-old guards that much rather have the ball in their hands than defending an opponent who has it.
Houston allows the 9th-most points per game to point guards and in the past three meetings versus Houston, FVV scored 27, 25 and 20 points. Siakam played in two of those three games as well.
I played FVV Over 19.5 Points at -125 odds on DraftKings and -122 on FanDuel.
I would play this Over 20.5. I like his Over 7.5 assists too or would play the combo points + assists.
Pick: Fred VanVleet Over 19.5 Points (1u)
Jamal Murray O/U 4.5 Assists vs. Pacers
Jamal Murray is heating up too and I have taken notice.
The Nuggets point guard goes from back-to-back positive matchups versus the Spurs to another with the Pacers.
In the past two games, Murray posted 18 total potential assists and converted 15 of those (83.3%) -- six and nine in each game.
The Pacers rank 26th in defensive net rating (115.6) and the Spurs are 30th (116.5). Indiana ranks 5th in pace and San Antonio is 3rd. The Spurs allow the second-most assists per game (28.5) and the Pacers permit the 8th-most (26.9).
Very similar matchups here for Murray with a day of rest. Below are the point guards that have faced the Pacers from most recent (McCollum) to latest (Morris).
C.J. McCollum: 7 assists
Kyle Lowry: 3 assists
Kyrie Irving: 6 assists
Kyrie Irving: 6 assists
Monte Morris: 12 assists
Ayo Dosunmu: 7 assists
James Harden: 11 assists
Cade Cunningham: 4 assists
Tre Jones: 4 assists
Monte Morris: 6 assists
Seven out of 10 starting point guards hit Over 4.5 assists versus Indiana (70%) and two of the three Unders landed on four assists exactly.
Murray is 3-1 to the Over in his past four games with his minutes increasing. Murray went from 26.0 minutes per game in the first five outings to 30.0 minutes per game in the past four.
The Nuggets guard also played 23 minutes in one of those last four outings due to a blowout win, in which he posted a season-high nine assists, so a blowout here doesn’t scare me off this prop.
I played Murray Over 4.5 Assists (-122) at FanDuel. It’s -130 on DraftKings.
I would play this to -140 and to 5.5 for a 0.5u and + money.
Pick: Jamal Murray Over 4.5 Assists (1u)
Cade Cunningham O/U 31.5 PRA vs Celtics
I wish I could say it was hard choosing between Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown tonight, but I honestly like all three, just Cade the most.
It’s been obvious that Boston is struggling with guards. Without Robert Williams, guards have been able to stack all-around efforts versus Boston.
In six of the last seven games, opposing guards have dominated Boston. I didn’t feel like putting in the Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers or Orlando Magic numbers from the first three games of the season, but they each had at least one guard hit this Over.
Ja Morant: 30 points, 9 assists, 8 rebounds = 47 PRA
Jalen Brunson: 22 points, 10 assists, 3 rebounds = 35 PRA
DeMar DeRozan: 46 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds = 54 PRA
Darius Garland: 29 points, 12 assists, 5 rebounds = 46 PRA
Caris LeVert: 41 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds = 52 PRA
Donovan Mitchell: 41 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists = 48 PRA
DeMar DeRozan: 25 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists = 35 PRA
Cade only has three career meetings versus Boston. In those three games:
27 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists = 41 PRA
25 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists = 35 PRA
20 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists = 34 PRA
This 31.5 PRA number seems a tad bit low for what has happened to Boston this season. I don’t expect much to change until Williams comes back for Boston to protect the paint.
Cunningham averages 13.1 potential assists per game (14th) and 11.1 rebound chances per game (55th) with the 22nd-highest usage rate in the league (29.1%).
I played Cunningham Over 31.5 PRA at -110 odds on DraftKings.
This is 33.5 on FanDuel! I would play this to 33.5 PRA for 0.5 because that’s what I thought this line would be.
Pick: Cade Cunningham Over 31.5 PRA (1u)
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