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76ers (-1) at Bulls: O/U 219.5
After going 9-0 in my last nine NBA picks, how will I follow that up? With a fade of my favorite team.
Joel Embiid is 11-0 on the ML and 9-2 ATS (81.8%) versus the Bulls in his career. He was rested last night for this matchup and I wonder why.
The 76ers have covered six-straight meetings versus the Bulls. Philly was a favorite in five of those last six covers and 10 of the 11 total matchups featured the 76ers as a favorite.
At Chicago, Emibid is 5-0 on the ML and 4-1 ATS (80%), covering four-straight, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Chicago rested Zach LaVine in anticipation for this game after Philly announced they would do the same with Embiid.
In Embiid last three meetings versus Chicago, he scored 30, 40 and 43 points. Philly won by 9, 9 and 15 points.
Chicago has no rim protection and we should expect Nikola Vučević and Andre Drummond to be in foul trouble all night.
Last night, Jakob Poeltl recorded 21 points, 13 rebounds and 4 assists on 10-of-12 shooting in 30 minutes, while Zach Collins pitched in 16 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists on 7-of-9 from the field in 18 minutes against Chicago.
Philly has the defense to limit LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to 50 or fewer combined points and force the two into trusting their teammates. Embiid will be fresh and Harden didn’t have to do too much last night since Tyrese Maxey scored a career-high 44 points.
Take the 76ers ML at -115 odds, signed a Bulls fan. Once Embiid is announced in, this spread is going to -2.5 or -3.5 in favor of Philly.
Pick: 76ers ML (2u)
Joel Embiid O/U 29.5 Points vs. Bulls
A fresh Joel Embiid is always a fun and profitable option for 30-plus points, especially versus Chicago.
It could be Embiid’s night to score 40 points, I mean he did it two-straight meetings versus Chicago.
Embiid is 11-0 on the ML and 9-2 ATS (81.8%) versus the Bulls in his career and scored 30, 40 and 43 points in the last three meetings versus Chicago.
Embiid averages 29.5 points per game versus Chicago in his career. There are only four teams that Embiid averages more points per game against in his career than the Bulls and those are the Pacers, Clippers, Lakers and Suns.
Nikola Vučević and Andre Drummond will struggle to defend a fresh Embiid in the paint or driving to the lane. Last season, the 76ers big man averaged 29.6 points per game over 10 contest when on two days of rest, along with 12.4 rebounds in 33.5 minutes.
Chicago played last night and the Bulls gave Drummond 23 minutes of acton versus the Spurs compared to 25 minutes for Vucevic. The Bulls attempted to save Vucevic for more minutes tonight because they don’t want Drummond guarding Embiid.
Last night, Jakob Poeltl recorded 21 points, 13 rebounds and 4 assists on 10-of-12 shooting in 30 minutes, while Zach Collins pitched in 16 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists on 7-of-9 from the field in 18 minutes against Chicago.
The Spurs’ two big men combined for 37 points, 19 rebounds and 7 assists on 17-of-21 shooting (80.9%) versus the Bulls. Imagine what Embiid could do.
I think Embiid is going for 30-plus points for the 7th out of 12 times versus Chicago and 4th-straight.
I played Embiid Over 29.5 Points at -113 odds on FanDuel. I would not play this past 30-plus points.
Pick: Joel Embiid Over 29.5 Points (1u)
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